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Morning Joe

dolan in ohio. >> oh. >> somebody who wasn't a crazy -- i can't say it on air. >> don't say it. >> in arizona. >> ah. >> you are right in a sense, that there are some things, candidates in individual races could see what ben shapiro is saying, other people are saying, and fine-tune their campaign. but in arizona, you've got blake masters, who is, my gosh, just not going to win. mitch mcconnell knows it. at least that's who mcconnell's people think. oz isn't going to win. ohio should be a walk in the park, given how red it's turned. now, that's up. you know, that's up for grabs. they're pour money into there. suddenly, with this political environment, you go to wisconsin and ron johnson is in trouble up in wisconsin. herschel walker in trouble in

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Morning Joe

pennsylvania. dolan or somebody in ohio. we'll get arizona. win those. somebody good in georgia. georgia is red, we'll win that one because trump blew it for us before. we'll win that one so we can focus on wisconsin, where crazy ron is. maybe we can push crazy ron over the finish line so he is not, like, the rod grahams of wisconsin, right? >> real quick on that point. >> yeah. >> but you get to a point where you can sacrifice a crazy ron if you're picking up four seats. >> exactly, right. >> you can say, you know what, just like you're seeing with pennsylvania, we're not putting the resources there. now you're down one and not doing much better in three other states. >> that's a republican loss. >> yes. >> that's a minus one for the red. >> yes. >> this is what mitch said yesterday. >> i think there's probably a greater likelihood the house flips than the senate. senate races are just different. they're statewide. candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome.

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Morning Joe

>> you, too. you know, willie, just talking about this race, fetterman really, again, you see him campaigning around. he does not look like every other politician, in fact, he doesn't look like any other politician. i mean, he relates ordinarily well to the people of pennsylvania. and you look on the republican side, and i'll just say, i want to circle back to it. dave mccormick. i'm very surprised that mccormick, a guy considered an establishment republican. a guy that ran a huge hedge fund. a guy who has the sort of resume that republicans would have loved years ago. i fully expected him to do well in the suburbs. to do well in cities. and just get like dolan did in ohio. and then get wiped out in rural communities. simply because trump just bashed the hell out of him, the last

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Morning Joe

barnette and oz moving out front. if that plays the same, it's one of those two that win, and mccormick finishes a distant third, then we won't be able to predict, of course, where these races go in the general election. i suspect that adrienne is exactly right. dave mccormick would be the strongest republican in a general election statewide. that's not what republicans are doing. if these numbers would hold up, the one thing that we could be certain of, as we leave pennsylvania, is main street republicans like dave mccormick and dolan in ohio, they're just unelectable in every state except maybe utah, where a mitt romney can get elected. this republican party, if they reject dave mccormick, the guy, again, most likely to beat democrats in the fall, then the republican party has -- i mean,

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The 11th Hour With Stephanie Ruhle

one. from a prime -- from a republican primary, which largely has hard right, center right voters. he's gonna have to work in edge those voters closer to himself. it's gonna matter how he sounds on a lot of issues in this race. keep in mind, dolan had the benefit of a surge at the end there. again, what were those voters -- one of the composition of those voters? why didn't they swing toward mandel, or j. d. vance. if he can figure that little part of the formula out, i think he can pull a good portion of those voters to his side, and make that dash against j. d.. because j. d. is not the popular candidate in this race, he wasn't in the primary. except for that last-minute

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The 11th Hour With Stephanie Ruhle

their vote next? with their us tonight, juanita tolliver. vitamin -- and causes, and michael steele, former chairman of the republican national committee, and former lieutenant governor of maryland. michael, could tim ryan be right? he might not get all 23% of that vote, but could he get votes from republicans who voted against vance? >> sure. he's gonna have to work it though. it doesn't translate one for one. from a prime -- from a republican primary, which largely has hard right, center right voters. he's gonna have to work in edge those voters closer to himself. it's gonna matter how he sounds on a lot of issues in this race. keep in mind, dolan had the benefit of a surge at the end there. again, what were those voters -- one of the composition of those

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All In With Chris Hayes

counted first. and that's a similar question here for dolan, if dolan search came late, isn't necessarily going to be caught in the earliest votes that were cast. but again, about 15% in right now. vance off to a slightly dolan's right up there and mandela factor. >> fascinating, we will keep an eye on it. steve kornacki. always appreciate you and that's a nice read out chris hayes starts now. appreciate you an that'stonight on all in. >> roe v. wade is an important precedent. >> it is an important precedent. >> worthy as treatment of president. >> that doesn't mean that arose should be overruled. >> never mind what they've all said before, the supreme court confirms that draft to overturn roe v. wade. >> well i am here because i am angry. and i am here because the united states congress can change all of this. >> tonight, the anger, the

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Morning Joe

this is portsmith, ohio, this is the best county in the state for vance, 47%. dolan who there was a lot of momentum behind with single digits, buried throughout appalachian ohio. vance was running up the score in places like this. this is the heart of trump country in ohio, counties all along in the appalachian regions of ohio. i think there's 32 of them in ohio. 28 of them trump even beat john kasich back in the 2016 primary. the other thing that happened to vance was and the hope for dolan was this. dolan was hoping to run up huge numbers in the metropolitan areas, the suburban areas,

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Hannity

point number two in the middle, you talk about columbus ohio franklin county. dolan expected to do well don't decent but he's from northern ohio. up here where he's really expected to do well, i showed this earlier today, this is where trump had the rally with jd vance and he's at 35% in delaware county. if josh mandell or dolan really wanted to cut in vance's lead you would expect to see that in counties like delaware quickly growing, rather affluent. this is ciahoga county in cleveland. it's the rest of this state where you see jd vance is wiping up, southwest and southern part of the state some rural counties up in the northeast also. remember, remember when trump won in 2016? we were at the board that night sean and i was showing you these were counties held by democrats for 50 years and trump broke through that wall and listen,

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Hannity

in southwestern ohio. that is point number one . point number two in the middle you talked one. about columbus, ohio. this is franklin county. don't expect to do well here. he is doing decent but he's from northern ohio going to show you right nowoh we reals expect to do well. i mentioned delaware county. i showed this a bit earliers today. this is where trump had the rally with jd vance and he's a thirty five percent in delaware county. if josh mandel or dolan really wanted to cut invensys, youe expect to see that perhaps in counties like delaware quickly q growing rather affluent. this is cuyahoga county and cleveland. dolan's doing well here also. but again, it's it's the rest of this state where you see jde vance, his wife up, you know,er in the southwest and the southern part of the state. some of these rural counties also up here in the northeast. also member remember when trump won in twenty sixteen ? we're at the board that night, sean. and i was t showing youel that these are counties that have beenoc held 5 by democrats for 50 years and trump broke through that0 tu

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