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KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— Joe Biden’s approval numbers are weak and are reminiscent of the numbers from some recent presidents who lost reelection.— However, Biden is still very competitive in polling with the current leader for the Republican presidential nomination, Donald Trump, in part because voters still have less negative attitudes toward him than they do toward Trump, according to the 2022 American National Elections Studies Pilot Study.— A key bloc of voters who would prefer someone other than Biden or Trump skew conservative, but are also alienated by Trump’s actions ar...

Race, education, and partisanship from Reagan to Biden.KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— The American electorate has changed dramatically over the past 40 years, and a pair of factors — race and education — have driven the changes.— The electorate has become more diverse and more highly educated. Democrats rely heavily on nonwhite voters and have improved with white college-educated voters, while Republicans have cut deeply into Democratic support with non-college whites.— Racial and cultural issues, rather than economic ones, have fueled Republican gains with the non-college white elect...

Race, party, and ideological congruence in the American electorate.KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— One of the big stories of American politics over the past half-century has been a growing ideological divide between Democrats and Republicans.— This has also led to more ideological cohesion within parties, including a dramatic increase among Democrats between 2012 and 2020. Democrats are now as ideologically cohesive as Republicans, which is a big change from a decade ago, when Republicans were significantly more cohesive than Democrats.— While white Democrats have moved more to the left t...

What a predictive model tells us about the last decade of results, as well as 2022KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— Senate elections have become firmly yoked to their state’s presidential leanings.— Democrats now hold a tiny Senate majority in large part because of their superior performance in otherwise Republican-leaning states, a performance they may find difficult to sustain because of deepening partisan polarization.— Based on the fundamentals of state partisanship, incumbency, and the national political environment, Republicans have a good chance to pick up at least a seat and take b...

Democratic share of the Latino vote has been highly variable from election to election.KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— One key question in American politics is the trajectory of Latino voters. Donald Trump performed better in 2020 with Latino voters than he did in 2016, particularly in places like South Texas and South Florida.— However, an analysis of the longer-term trend in Latino presidential voting shows that this growing voting bloc is not necessarily trending one way or the other.— Presidential incumbency appears to have a stronger influence on Latino voters than on other demograph...