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The Exile Effect: Venezuela's Overseas Opposition and Social Media


What’s new? As Nicolás Maduro forces dissidents to flee Venezuela, exiles have come to play important roles influencing both the opposition’s political strategy and international policy toward Caracas. Analysis of social media suggests that exile can lead opposition members to use strident rhetoric and advocate aggressive ideas more often than domestic counterparts.
Why does it matter? Internationally facilitated negotiations remain Venezuela’s best path to peace, and the new U.S. administration might very well pursue them. Their success rests on all parties’ willingness to accept compromise. Conciliatory attitudes could be undermined not only by crackdowns in Venezuela but also by prominent exiles’ views.

Venezuela , Cuba , Honduras , Bogot , Ivanovskaya-oblast , Russia , La-patilla , Estado-guarico , United-states , United-kingdom , Rusia , Caquetao

The Rebels Come to Khartoum: How to Implement Sudan's New Peace Agreement


What’s new? A peace agreement signed on 3 October 2020 paves the way for armed and unarmed opposition groups in Sudan to join the transitional government, dramatically expanding representation of the country’s peripheries during the interim period before elections. The two most powerful rebel movements remain outside the accord, however.
Why does it matter? Clinching the agreement was necessary for the country’s transition but implementation poses challenges. The agreement risks bloating the military and sets up a prospective political alliance between the rebels and Sudanese security forces, which could further sideline the government’s civilian cabinet and threaten to bury its reform agenda. 

An-nil-al-azraq , Sudan , Qatar , Chad , Red-sea , Djibouti-general , Djibouti , Paris , France-general , France , United-kingdom , Jaalin

Toward a Viable Future for South Sudan


What’s new? In February 2020, South Sudan’s two main belligerents began forming a unity government pursuant to a peace deal inked a year and a half earlier. But the pact is fragile, smaller conflicts are still ablaze and the threat of return to full-blown civil war remains. 
Why does it matter? Forthcoming elections could test the peace deal severely. Looking further ahead, conflict will continue to plague South Sudan until its leaders forge a political system that distributes power more widely. The cost of cyclical fighting since 2013 has been steep: hundreds of thousands dead and millions uprooted from their homes. 

Sudan , United-states , United-kingdom , Unity-state , Wilayat-al-wahda , South-sudan , Yambio , Wilayat-gharb-al-istiwa-iyah , Nairobi , Nairobi-area , Kenya , Yemen

Relaunching the Kosovo-Serbia Dialogue


What’s new? Efforts to resolve the long-running dispute between Kosovo and Serbia over the former’s independence have foundered. EU-led talks brokered agreement on technical issues but have struggled to address core political questions. Washington’s mid-2020 mediation effort fell apart when Kosovo’s president had to step away because of war crimes charges.
Why does it matter? The dispute freezes Kosovo out of the UN and many other international bodies, ensures that both countries are barred from EU membership, leaves minority communities at risk and constitutes an impediment to regional security. Resolving the dispute would be a boon for stability in the Western Balkans and Europe.

Serbia , Jerusalem , Israel-general , Israel , Zajednice , 00 , Paris , France-general , France , United-kingdom , China , Austria

The Iran Nuclear Deal at Five: A Revival?


What’s new? The 2015 Iran nuclear deal has looked at best shaky since the Trump administration withdrew from it in 2018, imposing damaging economic sanctions on the Islamic Republic. In response, Tehran ramped up its nuclear activity in contravention of its obligations under the agreement. President-elect Joe Biden’s inauguration could mark an inflection point.
Why does it matter? Having failed to achieve its objectives, Trump’s “maximum pressure” strategy may be nearing an end. Restoring the nuclear deal, with its considerable non-proliferation benefits, could lead to wider U.S.-Iran diplomatic engagement. But one or both sides may be tempted to make additional demands, which would be a recipe for deadlock.

Iran , Jerusalem , Israel-general , Israel , Red-sea , Djibouti-general , Djibouti , United-states , Paris , France-general , France , United-kingdom

From Elections to Ceasefire in Myanmar's Rakhine State


What’s new? Following vote cancellations in conflict-affected areas of Rakhine state during the 8 November general election, Japan has helped broker an informal ceasefire between Myanmar’s military and the Arakan Army in order to hold supplementary elections. Both sides say they are in favour, but the civilian government is reluctant. 
Why does it matter? The initiative has halted almost two years of intense fighting and enabled dialogue to resume for the first time since December 2019. Negotiations over elections could be a stepping stone to a formal ceasefire, but the process remains fragile, particularly without civilian government buy-in.
What should be done?  The Arakan Army should release three National League for Democracy candidates it has detained. The civilian government should support elections and – if the Arakan Army lets the captives go – drop its designation as a terrorist organisation. The Tatmadaw should stop insisting that the Arakan Army leave Rakhine under a ceasefire.

Arakan , Yangon , Myanmar , Rakhine-state , Aung-hlaing , Ayeyarwady , Tokyo , Japan , Maungdaw , Panghsang , Shan-state , Beijing

Venezuela: What Lies Ahead after Election Clinches Maduro's Clean Sweep


What’s new? After years of political turmoil, elections for Venezuela’s National Assembly ended in a predictable victory for President Nicolás Maduro. Mainstream opposition parties boycotted the poll and, alongside the U.S. and Latin American and European countries, accuse the government of rigging the elections.
Why does it matter? Elimination of the opposition majority in parliament will greatly complicate efforts to resolve the standoff with the government. The boycott split the opposition, and dwindling support for its leader Juan Guaidó raises questions about who might face the government in future negotiations.
What should be done? The opposition should affirm that it backs a negotiated settlement, disavowing the government’s violent overthrow. To usher in talks, Maduro should release political prisoners and rein in the secret police, while the incoming U.S. administration should reconsider sanctions that cause humanitarian harm and seek multilateral solutions to the crisis.

Bogot , Ivanovskaya-oblast , Russia , United-states , Beijing , China , Consulta , Bolír , Venezuela , Libertad , Barinas , Syria