Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20091125

u.s. equity futures point to go a positive start here at home as "squawk box" begins right now. >> good mortgage. welcome back to "squawk box" he here on cnbc. i'm michelle caruso cabrera sitting in with joe kernen and steve liesman. there is serious work at hand. we have a deluge of economic data set to hit the tape this morning. >> that's a lot. >> durable goods, personal income and spending, weekly jobless claims, consumer sentiment, new home sales and oil inventory. you have to be tuned in two hours from now to see all of this stuff. personal income seen ticking higher by .1%. spending seen rising -- >> look at all of that data. >> .6%. are you in data heaven? >> there are days when the forces of the universe come together for me. and this is one of them. i mean, like the day before christmas, same sort of idea where they put out all the data early than they otherwise would. and it's just hard to sit in the seat right now. >> just thinking about all this data .how many we're going to know about the u.s. economy once all of this is done. >> the forecast is for anything to move more than .1% or .5% of anything. >> but that is significant, joe, right? >> is durable goods the most significant one? >> jobless. jobless claims. >> that's today, too? >> i'd like to see it come down below the 498,000. get closes to that 450 range. >> a day earlier. >> forecasters say new applications for unemployment benefits likely drop by 10,000 to 495,000. potentially below 500,000. >> how long that been snl. >> since below 100,000. >> i don't know that. >> you have to know that. >> i will know that. just keep talking amongst yourself. >> then at 10:30 a.m., the dow jones calls for october new home sales to fall by 1% from 402,000 in september. worth note b, thompson reuters poll forecast a 2% increase in sales. steve. >> we are watching oil prices this morning. traders waiting for the energy department's weekly inventory report. it's expected to show supplies of crude and gasoline are growing all prices, down about 7% reaching their high this year of $82 a barrel last month. joe. >> steve, do you follow short interest? >> yes. >> it's been rising in the united states and equities have risen slightly this month. the short interest, the data signaling some investors could hit trouble as the year wind down. they've been looking for this to hit some trouble since mid march. the nyse reports that shoe short interest rose 2.3% to about $13.2 billion shares as of november 13th. short interest was equal to about 3.5% for the total outstanding shares. for the nasdaq short interest, up 2.6%. year-to-date, short sellers have a negative return of 0%. that puts 20089 to be on track for one of the worst years ever. after we have mentioned all these things, just remember, many times the shorts need to be covered. so it doesn't necessarily portend bad things for the market all the time. it could portend a short squeeze. >> isn't that the argument that nearly every rally begins with a short covering rally, of course. >> right. that's why i'm not sure to see how short interest -- >> that could be a good thing. >> exactly. >> this was a new piece of data that was going to help us understand it. after a while -- >> who knows how useful it is. and there's so many different shorting from the box and hedging and so many different strategies, you don't know whether -- what really someone is doing when they make a bet like this. >> and then when the market knows about the a piece of data, it's useful not predicting what the market is going to do diminishes. >> and then when you can short ten times the market that exists, that makes it, as well. >> isn't that illegal? >> theoretically illegal, but is it in force? >> no. let's check on the markets so far this morning. futures right now are suggesting a positive open. right now the dow jones industrial average would open higher by -- as soon as they roll it. 10 points. na nasdaq would open roughly i by 6 or 7. we have a seven-year option coming up later this week as the government try toes borrow more money at 3.31%. the dollar index printed a new 15-month low earlier today, around 74. versus the end of the year on the pound. weaker across the board. now every dollar, the euro will cost you $1.50 on the nose here. and with gold, this is the eighth day in a row for a gold record. $1,177 per owns, a gain of more than $11. let's go to the overseas market in london where louisa bojesen has the latest out of europe. hey, louisa. >> hey, guys. i can tell you our european are higher across the board. we were being called up a little today. it seems, though, we're still highly motivated by what's going on with the dollar. the dollar is higher and persisting today. that caused persistence into the market. we've got quite a bit of interest in the automobile sector today with another gm unit facing the wall, the saab unit, which is a loss-making unit because the carmaker, they're pulling out of the deal now so saab needs to find a buyer for this particular unit. we're hearing that particularly there may be some asian interest in the unit, although eats not known yet and we hear more about gm's plans for opel today, they're detailing plans after that huge u-turn to keep that itself itself. the lsc posting a significant drop in their first half of pretax profits, a drop open 37%. their rival is heating up in business. cost control being a top priority for the london stock exchange group, which of course had all these possibilities of merging here, what, two years ago, a year and a half ago, two years ago. the share price was at a multi year highs at the time. they chose to walk away from the potential deals and now instead they find themselves facing a difficult time. deutsche bores sa had numbers out a short time ago. compass, which is one of the world's biggest catering groups, they supply a whole bunch of very large companies among others. i think the u.s. army or some certain units, at least, in north america. they're setting their sights on higher margins and fairing relatively well. although what we are hearing from them are a number of companies that support these days is that they're very cautious due to the lack of transparency in their key markets. i just lost my hearing ball, it got pulled out from the floor by some snake down there. so i'll send it back to you. >> louisa, that does happen. the cords are lock and sometimes the wheel on your chair will do that. the dollar is the key driver of the overall markets right now. we're joined by a special guests, he's famous, the world affectionately calls him mr. yen. he's isuki sakabara. he served as japan's vice finance minister for international affairs and we welcome you. and it is a long way off where we're talking to you, so there's a delay. but sir, i guess let's start with what we've seen with the dollar versus many currencies, but what has been the most significant move and do you expect these moves to continue? >> well, as we get to the dollar/yen, it is below the level of 1.88. between $1.88 and 1.50, but today it has broken that. it is possible that the dollar/yen would approach 85 quickly. and i wouldn't rule out the possibility that dollar/yen would, you know, come close to 80, as well. so this is a critical day. it was broken the 88. >> i've heard that that is not necessarily a surprise and not necessarily anything to cause a great deal of concern, at least in this country. maybe it is causing more concern in japan in terms of the export pictures. >> that's right. yeah, japanese equity has been coming down. the nikkei has broken the critical level, what, 10,000. it is now approaching 9,000. with the appreciate of yen towards 85 and even possibly 80, the nikkei could come down farther. so the japanese economy is likely to get boo the double dip recession. early next year, maybe between january and march or april, you know, june of next year. so this is a very critical situation for the japanese economy. >> sir, it's michelle here. in a recent speech, federal reserve chair ben bernanke said that the reason the dollar was falling was simply unwinding the huge rally that happened during the crisis but that was a key part of the reason. is that why you think the dollar is falling? what are the reasons why we're seeing this decline? >> yeah, i think so. i mean, this is the deleveraging of accumulation of the dollar in their bubble period. this dollar weakness i anticipate is going to continue for some time to come. >> do you believe that governments around the world, particularly the u.s. government, should intervene at this point to stop the dollar's decline? >> well, i don't think tim geithner would be inclined to intervene at this moment. maybe if dollar/yen breaks 85, japanese government may be tempted to intervene to support the dollar. but i don't know what would be the reaction of tim geithner by that intervention from the japanese authorities. >> if i can just ask the question, what do you think they will do, do you believe they should come in and support the dollar particularly when it comes to the dollar/euro? >> well, i don't know. my thought is that maybe u.s., that tim geithner will somewhat gradual decline of u.s. dollar. so sort of, you know, collect the enormous imbalances in trade. so i don't think tim geithner is unhappy at this moment. if the dollar plummets, that's a different story. but it's a gradual decline of the u.s. dollar. i think tim is quite happy with that. i don't know. you have to ask him, but that's my philosophy. >> we're going to get a chance to ask him, i think. >> should he be happy about the decline in the dollar? there's a lot of controversy here in the united states that they shouldn't be happy about the dollar, they should be fighting to support it. >> if it's a gradual decline, it should help your ex ports. that will really rebalance the world in a trade situation. if the dollar gradually declines and renminbi depreciates somewhat, that would be a desirable situation for both the u.s. and china. >> sir, you seem to feel, from what i've read, that deflation is a problem at this point globally. it's a worldwide trend. how does that explain the move in gold and the notion that the reason we have this dollar weakness is because of the printing presses running full time here in the u.s. is that because you're so phobic in japan now about inflation or deflation or is that the the biggest problem? >> well, this deflation or this inflation is not a monetary phenomenon. it is a result of the globalization and the deflation is actually happening in this country in japan. this is going to continue for some time. and even for the u.s. and europe, disinflation is taking place. and at least for some time to come, there is no prospect for inflation. from monetary side, people may wonder why inflation is not taking place. but, you know, it's disinflation because of the because of the globalization. those countries like china and india are affecting us. >> how critical is it for china to allow the yuan to appreciate against the dollar? >> i think basically -- to the u.s. dollar. i think chinese yuan should appreciate substantially. you know, with look at what happens to the japanese yen during the course of the last 20, 30 years. it has appreciated, you know, in a very dramatic way. and chinese yuan, if you think in terms of the next five to ten years has appreciated in a very dramatic way. so the chinese authorities should peg their currency vis-a-vis the dollar. >> if they did that, what would the yuan be at versus the dollar? >> well, i don't know, but within the next two or three months, appreciation is quite possible, i think. >> that would help trading partners over there, but would that change china's propensity to buy our paper? >> well, you know, chinese economy is growing at 9% and it is going to continue. and yuan would, you know, one way or the other would continue to appreciate. look at what has happened to the japanese economy in the '70s or '80s. it has appreciated as high at $1.80. so this is going to happen in the chinese yuan in the medium to long run. so, you know, the question is when they will unpeg their currency vis-a-vis the dollar. as a matter of fact, chinese yuan has become much cheaper, you know, vis-a-vis the other asian currencies. that should not be the case. >> we appreciate your time this morning. it's not morning over there, but today we appreciate it. i wish you a happy thanksgiving, but i know there's probably no thanksgiving this morning, either. >> i appreciate how you handled his name. that was really professional. >> a lot of times, it's like skiing down and tun mogul is coming so you let the skis absorb the -- >> very professional. >> no thanksgiving in japan. you knew that, right? >> i figured that. >> the pilgrims came thousands of years -- that doesn't mean you can't wish someone a happy thanksgiving, right? >> no. absolutely. >> do you think only people, ethnic groups who had pilgrims or members or representatives in the original pilgrims should celebrate thanksgiving? >> i haven't even considered that. >> should the native indians celebrate thanksgiving? >> now you really -- i don't kn know. what do you think? do you like columbus? did you celebrate columbus day? >> did you read about how there was a republican thanksgiving and a democratic thanksgiving for several years because they tried to move the dates around? even thanksgiving became politic sized. >> you could make so many jokes about that, what a republican thanksgiving looks like versus what the democratic thanksgiving looks like. how about the independents? write down what the independents would feel. you write that and i'll write -- >> here the democrats would go over and baervegly take turkey from their neighbors. >> the biggest and best turkeys. >> right. >> and split it exactly evenly so that each person got a morsel apiece. >> and the republican thanksgiving would be to feed those the most, give the biggest plates to those who were the most productive that year and to starve those who weren't productive because you need more -- >> increase supply dramatically so that way they would have -- >> the republicans would have much more to split up. you have this teenie piece of pumpkin pie. you could cut it exactly evenly, but you would even get -- because the pie would shrink so much. >> because they would have overregulated turkey production and pumpkin production. >> you would have messed that up somehow, go ahead. >> we would have invited a lot of people. >> everybody would be there. everybody would be there. >> there would be everybody at the republican -- everybody is welcome at the republican -- >> but nobody would ever come. did you ever notice that? >> that's because the social -- >> coming up, a holt day social edition task force. later, is cooking a turkey in your future? check in with the butterball hot line. we're going to give them a call. still ahead, if you can't take the heat, stay out of the "squawk box" kitchen. i am putting it stuffing in the bird. ♪ (announcer) they've been tested, built and driven like no other. and now they're being offered like no other. come to the winter event and get an exceptional offer on the mercedes-benz of your dreams. it's our way of showing a little holiday spirit. but hurry - the offer ends soon. let's tell you how the markets are shaping up, joining us now, anthony chan and subodh ka march. thank you for joining us. steve liesman is beside him at the economic bev very that we are going to get. what do you think is going to be the most important to trading today? >> i think, michelle, everybody will be talking about that initial unemployment claim because everybody will be holding their breath to see when employment is going to turn positive. >> do we get less than 500,000 today? >> i think there is always that possibility of less than 500,000. but you can't hold your breath because if you look back historically at all the business cycles going back to 1967, that magical numbers varies. >> you're hedging. >> i'm not hedging at all. if you go back to 2001, you saw that number coming in at 396,000 before you had a positive print in payrolls. you go back to 1980, that number had to hit 525,000 before you got into a positive print. but if you go back to 1970 witness stand in the '70s, you saw that number having to go down below $300. >> i get all that, subodh, if we get a print below 500,000, does that move the markets? >> i think it will increase confidence, but the thing, michelle, to look at is would you look at previous recessions, companies have cut inventories, have cut costs. if they have to cut prices again on black friday, i think that will make the whole corporate community cautious. so this number plus black friday will be very important. >> black friday. >> anthony, i want to ask you about the fed minutes yesterday. when i look out at their inflation forecast, 2009 to 2012, that to me explains the remarks by federal reserve officials about why they're going to be so low for so long. they don't see themselves getting back to their 2% target for that would that be, almost three years. doesn't that suggest to you that we're going to be low for some time? >> absolutely. the inflation numbers are not a threat at this juncture. the reason to that, next year, we'll be lucky if we fall below 10% next year. and then on top of that, capacity utilization is at very low levels. we know that the federal reserve considers capacity to be in the 83% to 85% range before inflation becomes a problem. get what? we're into 70% in the low '70s. there's a huge negative output gap suggesting that inflation is not going to away problem for quite some time. and so right now, the primary consideration of the central bank is to get this economy growing again. >> subodh, what did you make xhed of those comments that they're worried about bubbles being created from low interest rates. is it suggested that they might move earlier than you thought? >> well, no. >> subodh. >> yes, i think that that is very important statement because i know the fed feeds to look at the economy. but i think they're getting worried that the health of the market is being affected, especially by the dollar and low interest rates and the talk about the bubble. so i was hearing your comments from japan earlier. my red line in the sand is 150 against the euro. so i think the fed is more concerned than they're letting on about these low interest rates than the dollar. >> we're there today at 150. >> that's why i think today is a very important day. if i'm right, the market has been looking at a weak dollar as a good event, but i think above 150, it could easily turn out to be a bad event. >> subodh, with all 06 this uncertainty, what are you doing? are we getting the santa claus rally? >> i think they'll go sideways at best, maybe pull back a little bit, michelle. it's a very interesting market because late spring/early summer, the market went to 900 on the s&p 500 and refused to pull back. now we're around 1100, it's having trouble getting any momentum upwards, even though people are saying, you know, it's money, it's driving the market, etcetera, but the market is having trouble. i think we're looking more at a sideways market into yooen year-end. >> we're done. >> oh, we're done. thank you, anthony, subodh, good to see you this morning. coming up, we have this morning's top stories plus the pictures from the pits and over the hills and through the woods to grandmother's house. millions of americans are traveling today by plane, train and automobile. we'll get the inside scoop of the industry and what it tells you about the state of the u.s. economy when "squawk box" comes back. i've been growing algae for 35 years. most people try to get rid of algae, and we're trying to grow it. the algae are very beautiful. they come in blue or red, golden, green. algae could be converted into biofuels... that we could someday run our cars on. in using algae to form biofuels, we're not competing with the food supply. and they absorb co2, so they help solve the greenhouse problem, as well. we're making a big commitment to finding out... just how much algae can help to meet... the fuel demands of the world. hi, may i help you? 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(announcer) we understand. you need to save money. good morning. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm joe kernen along with michelle ka ree sow cabrera. along with steve liesman. becky and carl are off today. 38 million americans are expected to go somewhere this holiday. aaa says that -- oh, no, that's two as, alcoholics anonymous. aaa is the automobile club, right? that is up about 1.4% from last year. let's head to chicago. good morning, kristin. >> hey there, good morning, joe. most of those travelers are going to be doing it by car this year. some 33 million americans, 33.2 actually million americans will be hitting the roadways. we are along the road here in chicago that goes towards chicago o'hare international airport. into and out of the city, things have been pick up here as we go through the morning. but still going smoothly. that may not be the case later on today. the midwest is one of the areas that could see bad weather. drizzles this morning could see showers later on today and tomorrow some snow. so the roads could get a little slick. speaking of chicago o'hare, one of the world's busiest parents this morning, things going well there. but only 2.3 million americans will be traveling by air this year. that's down about 6.7% from last year and continuing a trend that has air travel off over the thanksgiving holiday some 62% from the year 2000. experts say that's because of increased security. also more crowded flights and all of those fees that people have to pay. so people not choosing to fly by air as much as they have in years past. if you're traveling by car, though, you're going to pay a little bit more, as well. the national average for a gallon of gasoline is up some 73 cents from last year. but that is not stopping people who want to get to relatives or friends for this holiday. joe. >> kristin, thank you. we appreciate your report this morning. dark, probably cold and early because it's early here. thank you. >> you bet. as we gear up for one of the busiest travel holidays of the year, are airline stocks ready finally to take flight? joining us now from kansas city, bob mcandue. what do you make of those airline levels here? >> we're finally starting to see a bit of an uptick in terms of demand. and, you know, the airlines as a group, the ceos i think have done a real good job of squeezing down capacity, doing a lot of things to get themselves ready for the recovery in the economy. and so, you know, i think it's probably a good place to be, you know, over the next several months as the economy cleans itself up. i think you'll see that the airlines who have gotten beaten down so much will respond better even than the economy. >> how are they managing fuel costs right now? is it helping them or hurting them? >> a lot of people have percentages, but the hedges have been put on at this price. if oil goes up, i think we're more protected than we were a year ago if we had problems. in terms if oil stays here in the high 70s, low 80s, you're not going to see much of an impact. >> bob, as a frequent traveler, i'll have to ask this question. are airlines snatching the defeat from the jaws of victory here? and i mean this, what they've done is reduced capacity so much that any benefit you might get from the slower economy has been taken away because they reduced capacity so much? this should be a time when it's at least reasonably fun to fly. and instead, they've made it miserable again. >> you think it's miserable now, it would be even more miserable if we weren't around. the real issue is the airlines had to shrink. we had total revenues this last year were down roughly 25% and that's in spooit spite of the fact that capacity was only off 6% or 7%. demand was really off, so we had to see the guys cut their capacity back. it's one of the things you have to do to survive and, you know, it would be nice to have everything like it was once upon a time, but that's not likely to happen again. >> how do you be a long-term investor in airlines given their history of bankruptcies? are these destine to be in this extreme boom cycle? you play these things for maybe one part of the cycle and then you get out? >> i think you're right. when i was in my early days as an analyst, one of my early bosses said, you know, there are sar deans that you eat and sardines that you trade. same way with stocks. airlines are trading vehicles pup buy them at the bottom. you buy them when nobody wants them. airlines are not going to disappear. you buy the strongest ones at the bottom and you ride them until the world gets better and then you get back out again. so they're not long-term investments with few exceptions. >> we're starting to see consolidation at the international level. are we ever going to start to see more of that here? >> that's as much a political question. one of the things you've got is concerns about the labor unions that if, in fact, we saw consolidation with overseas carriers, you would see low price europeans or low price asian help be brought in and there's a lot of concern that that is not something we want to see. i doubt that we're going to see that. >> bob, tell us where the value is right now if you were buying at the bottom here. are these stocks still in an evaluation range where you think it makes sense to weigh it in? >> i think it does. they things are trading very much as if they were going out of business. something like a us airways which recently did a -- well, pretty much all of them have recently done a series of transactions to shore up the balance sheets. like i say, they're trading as if they were going out of business. they're not that far from where they were at the bottom when there were concerns. but you know, the world is starting to pick itself up and, you know, he think virtually any of the legacy names are good stocks to get involved with at this point. >> if the economy comes back, do they add back relatively quickly or make better margins on that additional capacity inspect. >> i think they could add it back. what you'll probably see is that they've been through that trying to chase the last customer too many times. i think what you see is a change of attitude that says, you know, if we really get that much demand, what we'll do is we'll raise prices a little more and try to put some money back into the bank for a change. >> you want more capacity? you know what happens? then we get far more sclais delays at the airport. remember at the peak you couldn't take off from new york. >> i think they went too far. right now, there are some things that -- let's thank bob. bob, thank you very much. not only airlines being interested, but how to invest in air airlines. >> they just went out of business. so they would be a good -- no, right now what they've done is they've cut back so much that all the flights are full again. on the upside, they get off on time better. you're able to say i'm going to get in at.and around ñ> i hate flying in and out of new york. >> on time at newark is like about an hour. >> an hour, hour and a half. >> because the guy you're waiting and waiting and waiting says we're now getting ready. we're number 31 forteoff. that will be about an hour and 15 minutes. it's a normal rush hour day. >> how do they do that? is that the government that allows that to happen? >> yeah. the way they price the takeoffes and landings is not based on supply or dmarnd at all. if you want to take off at peak time, you ought to pay more. >> that's the congressman that pressured the faa. >> exactly. thanksgiving. >> thanksgiving with a really small equally divided pumpkin pie. >> or overregulated. >> you know who michael steel is at this point or you don't know who it is? >> i do. >> he is heading the republican party. have you heard of him? >> have you seen the republican convention? >> now to the futures pits in chicago. joe kinnehan. where is the vickx, joe? we're back down to 20, right? >> yeah. we're 20 and change right now, joe. i imagine if we opened right here, we will be back at the 20 area. i guess it's good because we have some stability. vix measures the volatility expectations and i think as an options trader, it's not necessarily great. i think for the average retail investor, joe, it is good because people can start to invest with more confidence. you and i have talked before about how people keep putting their toes in the water. now maybe they're up to the whole foot, so to speak. >> and don't look now, but september and october are over. did you realize that? they are. those are horrible months. everybody worries. now you know who is coming december 25th. >> right. so thanksgiving is in november this year, huh? >> yeah. >> but anyway, you know, and it's one of the reasons that we're continuing to go up. it's not only the retail investor that doesn't believe. you have people here saying the tops happen, the tops happen and the tops happen. >> highs of the year have been seen. highs of the year have been seen. they have no shame. erchlts there's another high, they say it. what do you make about everybody piling into record low yields when it came to the two-year auction the other day? we're seeing everyone gobble up all this stuff when some would suggest speaks to fear. >> absolutely. and you're seeing some of the corporate things. there's supply for some of these bonds. i think that fear, you know, is going to stay out there for a while. and it's one of the reasons, you know, right now we're at about 1108 o s&p 500 future. many here believe we're going to trade that up to 1125 even. everyone is afraid, shall we say with, to buy it right here. we just keep particultick, tickg up. every day we're up a little more, a little more, a little more. thanksgiving week, we tend to be up and wheelchair seen that drift right here. one of the interesting things, yesterday we saw that consumer confidence wasn't very good and the market went up and people were scratching their heads about that. there's no real direct correlation between consumer confidence and consumer spending. if you look at the numbers, they don't correlate at all. >> joe, there was some -- joe, did you want -- i'm sorry. >> no. the market went up from being down but still closed down. it was down 70 and -- >> i'm sorry, we rallied afterwards. thank you, joe. >> joe twlb is talk and one of our last guests just said, there is a limit to the market's high on the dollar. that at some point maybe it's to the euro that the markets see that as a negative. >> and just now, it printed a fresh 2009 high against the euro, 1.5064. >> is there a limit to the market and the dollar? >> well, i would actually think the euro at a buck and a half, people aren't as concerned. i think it has about 10 more cents to the $1760 level. and the reason i say that, steve, if you look back to the british pound, it was a buck and a half a while ago. i think people are fairly comfortable in that level. i agree, though, we're getting to the point of perhaps diminishing returns. but i would say that the euro probably has about 10 more cents to go in it before people take that opposite view because it has been so good for the market overall, that as the dollar sells off, people are making on the backend with what's going on with the dow. santelli is always on here with us talking about this. long-term, it seems it will be very, very difficult for us to maintain a euro that continues to go higher and higher and in the long run, makes us a poorer country. >> who was that again? >> santa. >> the small italian guy that's usually here. >> with a big heart. >> exactly. >> thanks, j.j. >> all right. have a great thanksgiving, everyone. >> you, too. >> he's helping serve the pie. >> serving it up. >> there's a line of 15 people at your thanksgiving serving the pie. they're all employees, it's all -- one guy, only allowed to cut the pie. >> very low wages. >> the other guy is only allowed to take it out. and if any of them do any of that, they are immediately -- but there are 15 people. >> how did the republicans fund their turkey dinner this time? >> oh, we're -- are republicans the party of deficit spending now? >> how did you fund it? i want to know. >> are they the party of deficit spending? >> did you cut taxes for the turkey provider and say -- >> would that not be a better idea that subsidizing -- >> this is the problem that we face, right, is george bush nondefense discretionary spending went up dramatically under george bush. and so the entire party looks like a bunch of partnershhypocr >> yeah, but the democrats came in and took away any advantage they could have had. they could have been serious and then completely -- >> there's usually about 20 years and then you get in for the about two and people -- and initially it's like, oh, this is going to be great. and within two years, everybody goes, oh, my god. and then it's back to 20. >> we'll see. we'll see. >> i'll bet you have comments or questions about what you've just heard here on "squawk box." e-mail us at squawk@cnbc.com. tell us what you think about how a republican thanksgiving or democratic thanksgiving would look. and coming up, one retailer who says shoppers are willing to pay full price. first here are some live pictures of americans hitting the road early for the holidays. this is a live picture of boston. all right, when you look at the future of your business, what do you see? 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(announcer) some people just know how to build things well. give you and your loved ones an expertly engineered mercedes-benz at the winter event going on now. but hurry - the offer ends soon. welcome back to "squawk box." futures at this hour are pointing to a positive start this morning. right now, they're sucking the dow would open higher by roughly 30 points. here are some of the stories making headlines. j. crew posting better than expected quarterly profits after the close. revenue rising as shoppers appeared more willing to pay full price. big change. take a look at shares after hours. this is the prior day chart. look at that huge after hours move. a gain of nearly 9%. $43.92 per share. time now for a check on the news outside the world of business. monica novotny joins us with a roundup of the headlines. earlier next week, president obama is expected to announce his strategy for the u.s. war against afghanistan. more than eight years into the war, he plans to kwet quote, finish the job. the president is stayed to be supporting a plan that overtime would would deploy about 32,000 to 34,000 forces to the area. yesterday the government fined continental airlines, express jet and mu saba airlines the total of $175,000 for their roles last summer in leaving passengers stuck on a plane overnight. and connie osmond and his pro partner tangoed away last night with his win on "dancing with the stars." michelle, did you watch? there he is, donny osmond. michelle, did you watch knit of dancing with the stars? >> no. and every time i look at him, all i can any about is purple socks. >> you know, he's 51 years old and he's a grandfather. >> 51? he looks great. >> take care. enjoy the holidays. coming up, headlines, headlines, more headlines you need to know before the opening bell rings. >> and then freeze. before you put that turkey into the oven, check in with the butterball hot line. forget the bat line, we'll dial the bird line. >> no men in that shot. >> no men. you all want to run your businesses more efficiently, so we've brought in a team of experts to help. one suggestion is to make your shipping more efficient with priority mail flat rate boxes from the postal service. shipping's a hassle! weighing every box... actually, with flat rate boxes you don't need to weigh anything under 70 pounds. if it fits, it ships for a low flat rate. call or go online for a free flat rate box shipping kit that includes free boxes and our helpful shipping guide. do it today, and we'll ship it all right to your door for free. ok, but i ship all over the country. you can ship anywhere in the country for a low flat rate. ship international, too. and remember flat rate boxes come in four sizes and shipping starts at just $4.95. call or go online for a free shipping kit with a full supply of free boxes, plus the shipping guide. act now, and you'll get them all delivered right to your business free of charge. priority mail flat rate boxes only from the postal service. a simpler way to ship. call or go online now to get started. welcome back. making headlines this morning, the washington post closing its bureaus outside the nation's capital. offices in los angeles, and new york and washington will be shut town. they want to focus on politics. sad day for this former ink stain. starbucks sees china of aits next major market. fueling sales on the world's most populous nation. magazine publishers are building an itunes for magazines. conde nast plans to create online articles. that's interesting. >> it is. >> like a supermarket kind of thing. >> 99 cents per article, whatever. that would be like paying for content finally, right? i think some of the biggest news this week is rupert murdoch talking to microsoft and talking about whether they'll take their content off google and put it on bing. >> the guys who were the distributor, check me on this, joe. if you distribute content, your market capital is through the roof. shouldn't it be the other way around? >> yes. >> if you have a way of getting paid for it. taking on piracy and everything else. rupert would say google steals all their -- >> content kleptomaniacs. >> if rupert's actions end up saving companies like "the new york times." >> that would be -- unintended consequences. i wish he could buy "the new york times." probably couldn't. because of the journal. the i-toilet, george costanza figured out and then made thousands on, on the larry david reunion so. >> i missed that. >> you have to see it. they're all back, newman, kenny banyon is back. >> and they all talk the same way. >> they do. the day before thanksgiving, my favorite editorial in the journal and it must be time to talk travel. millions of americans ready to take the trains, planes and automobiles. but what if you get the run around by an airline not giving you what you want? flyers get their online say, straight ahead. for over 150 years, wells fargo has been putting our clients first. according to a leading independent research firm, in 2009 clients rated wells fargo advisors the #1 u.s investment firm for doing what's best for them. with advisors nearby and nationwide, we're with you when you need advice and planning expertise to meet today's challenges. wells fargo advisors. together we'll go far. yet a lot of natural gas has impurities like co2 in it. controlled freeze zone is a new technology... being developed by exxonmobil... to remove the co2 from the natural gas... so we can safely store it... where it won't get into the atmosphere. exxonmobil is spending more than 100 million dollars... to build a plant that will demonstrate this process. i'm very optimistic about it... because this technology could be used... to reduce greenhouse gas emissions significantly. ♪ he said we're going the wrong way. >> oh, he's drunk. how would he know where we're going? >> the biggest travel days of the year, finding new ways to complain about air travel without even leaving their seat. >> ahhh! >> earnings at tiffany's, the luxury retailer about to pop the question on the third quarter. >> this time of the year, there should be a hotline you can call about cooking turkeys, staffed by expert chefs. >> there is. >> what do you mean? >> doctor's orders, might want to cough a little bit. >> it's turkey time and the nation is talking bird. >> god i love my country. get me the number for the butterball hotline ♪ turkey for me turkey for you ♪ welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc, i'm joe kernen along with michelle caruso-cabrera. becki and joe are off. strategy headed into 2010. economic data on the way at 10:30 eastern. futures are indicating 25 points up or so. it's almost like "it's a wonderful life," the video of me making the turkey. we'll have that a little later where i actually stuff the turkey. >> put the stuffing inside the turkey? >> so hard. >> doesn't that cause salmonella? >> then found out it had to be very gentle. does it cause salmonella? >> the stuffing is going inside my turkey. >> there's a controversy. >> i haven't read that. >> there is. also controversial, the level of unemployment. the government getting all its business out of the way today before taking off for thanksgiving. durable good, personal income and spending, jobless claims, consumer sentiment, new home sales and weekly inventorienven. three of the reports will be released at 8:30 eastern time. expecting durable goods to ririse 0.5%. spending seen rising 0 .6%. jobless claims likely dropped to 495,000, below 500,000 for the first time in a long time. aig's board giving the company the green light to pay ceo benmosche. he will get $3 million cash and a $4 million in fully vested aig stock. he can't sell his vested stock from five years from his august start date. he is reportedly signing a noncompete agreement. joe? >> we have deer reporting and estimates to earn three cents on a nongap basis, the company earned 23 cents, excludeing items on sales of $5.33 billion versus expectations of $5.28 billion. more or less in mind, but not below. slightly above. company equipment sales are expected to be down about 1% for fiscal 2010 and the company does point out that it completes -- has completed now -- that was the fiscal fourth quarter it's reporting. it's kind of crawling a little bit, completing a profitable year in the face of an historic economic slowdown. so, that's the headline for deere at this point. worldwide, net sales in revenues, that $5.3 billion, down 28%. so, it was above expectation, but down 28% for the fourth quarter and 19% for the full year, which is the -- >> 28% declining revenues with what percent increase in profits? >> it's a nongap increase we're talking about. it wasn't really an increase, steve. they were profitable. for the year, they earned about 275, 280 versus 470 last year. earnings are down too. >> quarter to quarter was up, right? >> quarter to quarter was not up either. it was not up. >> are we looking at versus the estimate, okay. >> versus the estimate. >> real quick, the mortgage refinance applications declined. 4.5% on the week. refi index down 9.5%, with the 30-year mortgage rates declining to 4.82% pretty attractive rates, but americans not grabbing on to them, not attractive enough. crisscross the country to get home in time for thanksgiving. that means traffic and lines, waiting and complaining. it also means phil lebeau is at chicago's o'hare with the next level of lodging complaints. >> reporter: thanksgiving is the beginning of the holiday travel season. this year it's going to be as miserable as ever for people who don't like crowded planes. fact of the matter is we're seeing fewer seats up in the sky as airlines have pulled back on the number of seats they're putting up there. also we'll see fewer people out there. the latest estimate is that there is going to be a decline, roughly 6%, in the number of people who will be flying this thanksgiving weekend. about 2.3, 2.4 million people will be flying somewhere. the packed planes are crowded due to the capacity cuts. simple math. fewer seats, fewer people flying. still enough that you're going to have trouble if you're looking for that seat. which means you're going to have a lot of irritation. increasingly, you're hearing about people who are frustrated, taking their frustrations online. airlines are spending more time monitoring social media sites. airlines have essentially s.w.a.t. teams devoted to what people are say iing on twitter facebook. instant venting have become a concern for the airline, so much so that this is one of the main areas they are looking to alleviate customer complaints. >> we have 38 years of excellent customer service. so, twitter can't tear that down overnight, can't replace the infrastructure that we have in place. absolutely it's going to have an effect on it, moving forward. we're continuing to look at ways to integrate that into our overall customer service practice. >> take a look at shares of southwest airlines. all of the airline stocks have been coming back a bit over the last couple of months. in large part because of the feeling that they've done a pretty good job in terms of handling the capacity cuts. again, one other thing to keep in mind, people will be complaining not only about poor service, but also about holiday fares. there are special fees that have been tacked on if you travel on certain high-traffic days around thanksgiving, christmas and new year's, a source of contention as well. what you see is if somebody lodges a complaint, the airline immediately says we understand your frustration, let's work on alleviating this. it's their way of trying to keep this from festering online so that somebody looks at it and says i don't want to fly that airline. joe? >> that's an old -- i know how you feel. many of my clients have felt that way in the past. >> i hear you. >> it's a good idea. it's a good idea. it goes back all the way to our forefathers, i think, phil, the founders of thanksgiving, which i'm going to mention right now. thank you, phil lebeau. we're going to run this at the end of the show, i think. apparently, steve, the mayflower compact was set as a socialist contribe, but it failed miserably. then the pilgrims were given property rights to grow for pleasure and the food became abundant. >> did this guy read the same book you read? >> maybe not. >> what are you implying, joe? >> nothing. >> what is the implication? what is the unspoken subtext here, joe? >> we're going to do some of these e-mails. >> on republican versus democrats thanksgiving. >> republicans would look at the turkey and be thankful for our freedom. the other side would be thankful that they got millions of turkeys to vote for them. >> there's no thanksgiving in the republican house. there's no giving. there's a thanks taking. >> doing something to earn your own keep. mike colin is here. >> mike colin is here. save us, mike. >> mike is not going to help you, my friend. the dow posted gains on thanksgiving week, 38 of the last 59. i wouldn't look for help from global ceo of equities and guest host is mike colin. good to see you. >> happy thanksgiving. >> bob, we'll start with you. happy thanksgiving. >> same to you. >> we got through september and october. and now santa claus is coming in december, right? usually that's good. and we dodged the bullet in those two awful months. how are you feeling? >> generally okay, joe. we've been pretty constructive the past couple of months. to nuance that a bit, the market is churning a bit. six weeks, we've gone nowhere. economic releases a little bit mixed. lending problems still exist. look, i want to be constructive, but i want to be a little more careful, maybe a little more quality, less material stock, one more health care stock, that's probably the proper way to go in this environment. >> okay. so, what you've been doing, the things that have been making money, you say you're pulling in your horns a little? >> yeah, taking a little money off that table, if you will. as you know, we have that big run in the global cyclical area, energy names over the past couple of months, taking a few chips off that table and buying some higher quality names, some names that are a little more economic independent is probably proper in this environment. >> do you think that there's going to be a lot of things changing on january 1st, bob? i don't know. does gold keep -- do all the same things we keep seeing, dollar keep going down, gold keep going up, could there be a total shift in some of this stuff after the first of the year? >> i don't think the calendar page turn will make a whole lot of difference, joe. at some point, i think we will get the reaction that you talked b that is, the opposite of what we've been seeing. we'll get some dollar strength at some point. we'll find out that the u.s. can actually grow a bit. the only place growing in the world is not the emerging markets and i think there will be profit taking in the u.s. there will be a shift from this monetary liquidity p.e. driven piece to i better make sure i have earnings in my companies. that's a bit of a jolt in the market. we'll get that some time early next year is my guess. >> you didn't think the page turning of the calendar will make a difference, but a lot of people are turning to the short end of the curve. banks want to buy that before the end of the year. that's really being driven by the calendar. even though some people look at that move and say maybe the market is telling us we should be fearful of something. >> i think there's some of both there. i think the calendar turn and wanting to have that paper that takes us past the calendar year is part of what that front end of the yield curve is telling us. i mentioned bank lending and the absence of it. the fact that bank reserves are still kind of going the wrong direction, that lending is not coming back. this is going to be a slow, steady progress. lots of other things good going on. the economic news has turned a bit mixed. >> what about this idea that it's a time to get cautious? you could also look at the amount of carbon the sidelines, all that money piling into treasury saying there's a lot of buffer, a lot of fuel for a rise higher here. i want to throw that to mike colin. >> rather hear you answer that, but i'll give it a first shot. >> i'm sorry. >> then you take it after me. i think what's important about cash which is off sighted, steve, a lot of it is not coming into the stock market. >> ever? >> for a long time. >> forever going to be in two-year yields earning 0 .8%? >> good question. the words always, ever, never in the stock market are silly. >> i hear you. >> having said that, a lot of that money is scared money and it will stay where it is a long ti long time. markets around the world near all-time highs. to bob's point, however, i ran into david malpas who made the observation -- would be interested in your thought -- the last time we had the shanghai exchange and china markets roll over the way they did the past couple of days, 3.5% in china, with the whiff of the government pulling back on the stimulus, we had plenty of time from the turn in the china markets downward before they saw exactly what we got in the u.s. do you think there's anything to that? >> i do. it's a bit of a warning shot. the whole world has its focus, perhaps appropriately, on china and what happens there, the demand that comes from that part of the world is absolutely key. the whole liquidity argument. what will governments do? these are the things that do make a difference at these points where we're trying to reflate the economy. lots of money on the sidelines and i think that's why we're seeing everything long dated go up, bonds, commodities because people have said i don't like 0% return. some of that is leaking into longer data fixed income and some of it in equities and i think we'll get more before this is all over. >> before talking about the mortgages at these very low rates and actually people are not using them to buy houses. in that case it's because people view house prices as things that can go down. in the markets recently we've had things only go up, whether it's gold, junk bonds, emerging market debt. everything has been going up for a while. when that stops it may be interesting as well. >> steve? >> i'm waiting for joe. it's joe's show. >> quickly want to ask bob a question. you're pulling your horns, get ing more cautious. 65%. were you ever a screaming bull? you were cautious every five points, right? basically, you sort of are sticking a toe in the water the whole time up. it's been tough, obviously, to figure this out. >> he's the personafication of cautious. >> now is the time to -- i don't want to run to the sidelines but want a little more balance in the portfolio, little less exposure to straight up for the economy in part to the reflection the past six months. i want a little quality growth. >> you pound the table when you want us to buy with both hands, right? >> i'll do that, always, after i get a piece of your thanksgiving turkey. >> very small piece. thanks, bob. mike will be with us for the rest of the show. >> any comments or questions about anything you see here on "squawk box," e-mail us at squawk@cnbc.com. wish us a happy thanksgiving. if diamonds are a girl's best friend, can tiffany be an investor's best friend? we'll unwrap a blue box, check the latest earnings story when "squawk box" comes right back. time now for today's aflac trivia question. which of the great lakes is located entirely within the u.s. border? the answer when cnbc "squawk box" continues. dental bills... gazooks. you need a back-up plan ho, ho, ho. that's why we have aflac! so i'll have cash to help pay bills! great...but what if you're still not better by christmas? hmm... afllaaccccccccc!!!!!!! (santa): aflac. we've got you under our wing. rudolph's better... but now blitzen's sick! now the answer to today's aflac trivia question. which of the great lakes is located entirely within the u.s. border? the answer, lake michigan. tiffany & company reporting better than expected third quarter earnings in revenue this morning. stacey wooidlitz. 33 with expectations of 24 cents, raising expectations for the rest of the year. stock's doing well. >> good morning. yes, they did. >> what do you think here? >> results were well above expectations here, and most importantly on the top line, the revenue line. even the u.s. comps were only down 10% of the street looking for mid to high teen declines. >> they did not slash prices like every other high-end retailer. they stuck with high prices, right? >> they did not. that's important here. you saw every other luxury brand going out there, putting everything on 50% plus. tiffany did not do that. they protected their brand. in the end, i think, that will come back and be a huge positive for them. >> what do we think now about the fourth quarter when it comes to sales? seven quarters in a row now tiffany has seen negative comps. we're finally going to see positive comps in this fourth quarter? >> i think we will. certainly they talked about october only be down 5% in the u.s., november tracking in the right direction here. with easy comparisons and with the trends we're seeing, i think positive comparisons are just around the corner or positive comps are just around the corner. >> doesn't seem like last year's quarter was very good, stacey. staying down 10% is great. wasn't last year horrible in the same quarter? >> sure, it was, and across the board in retail, especially luxury, we saw q3, q4, they were a train wreck. >> last year. >> but the two-year trend is improving. >> to say, wow, it wasn't a terrible double digit down from a horrible last year, i think that shows what tiffany is up against, i guess. >> oh, sure. and i think a lot of investors are giving credit here for easy comparisons and a comp that's getting a little bit better. tiffany's a standout because you have a market story as capacity in jewelry is really washing out here. >> stacey, it's mike holland. do you have the numbers outside the u.s., particularly asia, japan, china? >> yes, japan is still a challenge, down double digits here, well within expectations. europe was actually up 9%. we were looking for three to five positive, but much better trend here. really across the board with the exception of japan, you saw better sales in every region. >> interesting. >> thank you, stacey. >> thank you. >> stock looks like it will be a big highlight today. >> huge, up more than $3. almost $3.40. big move. >> the dow ending the thanksgiving week higher. in 38 of the last 59 years. can the market bulls cash in on the bird again? today's trend straight ahead. first, as we head to break, check out the price of oil this morning. you give someone a lexus is just the first of many memories you'll make with it. [ squeals ] ♪ [ tires screech ] [ tires screech ] ♪ the lexus december to remember sales event, with some of the best values of the year. special lease offers now available on the 2010 es 350. now through january 4th. been putting our clients first. according to a leading independent research firm, in 2009 clients rated wells fargo advisors the #1 u.s investment firm for doing what's best for them. with advisors nearby and nationwide, we're with you when you need advice and planning expertise to meet today's challenges. wells fargo advisors. together we'll go far. in the north of england to my new job at the refinery in the south. i'll never forget. it used one tank of petrol and i had to refill it twice with oil. a new car today has 95% lower emissions than in 1970. exxonmobil is working to improve cars, liners of tires, plastics which are lighter and advanced hydrogen technologies that could increase fuel efficiency by up to 80%. microsoft cfo chris liddell is leaving the company at the end of the year. peter klein will take over the cfo role, currently cfo of microsoft's business division. >> recalling 110,000 older model tundra pickup trucks in the united states due to korrosion issues. in 20 cold states where road salts are being used, highway traffic says it can cause a rear portion of the frame to fail and allow the spare tire to fall into the roadway. >> what are the responsibilities of the autoo maker? those are ten-year-old cars. >> 2003. >> 2000 to 2003, isn't it? >> yeah. it's only 2009. >> nine years ago, you bought a car and the automaker still has responsibility if it rusts out? >> if the tire falls out of the trunk because it rots right through because of the salt? yes. it doesn't happen to any of these other trucks. what, are you backing toyota now? do you bake anything american, liesman, anything? >> i back everything american, joe. you have ten seconds. coming up, coming up, nation's retailers are gearing up for the busiest season of the year. ads, making lists, checking them twice. seeing green this black friday when "squawk box" comes right back. red, well, no one wants that. black on the other hand, has strength. black is always in style. it's what business looks best in. black is where growth and success happen, and it's easier to get there and stay there in ontario, canada, especially with our competitive tax rate. ♪ ontario, canada - the world works here. yeah. would you like a pony ? yeah ! ( cluck, cluck, cluck ) oh, wowww ! that's fun ! you didn't say i could have a real one. well, you didn't ask. even kids know when it's wrong to hold out on somebody. why don't banks ? we're ally, a new bank that alerts you when your money could be working harder and earning more. it's just the right thing to do. it's going to be one of the busiest travel days of the year. 495, 128. it's right near the holland tunnel, though, which is owned by our guest host, michael holland. let's get a check of the markets right now. futures indicating a positive open. suggesting the dow will open higher by 25 points, nasdaq by eight. demand for home loans slipped last week, mortgage rates still hovering near record lows. erickson agreed to buy nortel. ericsson will pay $75 million. senators are urging e ining eur anti-trust, oracle and sun deal approved in august. how much do europeans need, one more year? jane wells has the play by play on america's other national past time. why do we keep coming to you for all things shopping, jane? >> well, have you seen my credit card account? joe, are you going to get up friday? are you going to be out shopping on friday? >> i'm going to be here. i'm going to be here. no, i can't. >> what, like all day? >> well, till the show is over and then i don't think -- shopping and -- i don't mix. shopping and me don't -- i need a chair. the minute i get there, i get so tired there. >> the piano player. >> you must be so fun to go shopping with. okay. any how, people can shop some places on thursday, tomorrow. you can shop at kmart, sears, walmart, gap, banana republic and old navy. i read that in some states like maine they don't allow stores to be open tomorrow. some people are doing more research before heading out. pricegrabber.com, a one-stop research site for price comparisons, traffic up 15% from last year, twice as many shoppers are doing price research from 38% to now 70%. people are able to alcohol es the website on their phones at the mall. if an item is missing, they can find another place to buy. pricegrabber will set up a system to alert you when an item reaches the price you want. gps devices, uggs, ipods and some that would surprise you for the holidays. we're seeing, for instance, that tire sales are up 117% year over year. that doesn't sound like something you would normally get for christmas, jane, but in this cash-strapped economy, for a lot of people who need to extend the life of their car, tires is something they may, indeed, be giving for christmas. also, big searches for dinnerware as people stay home, board games. and increases in searches for jewelry and watches. we've been hyping the heck out of black friday. market research firm growth partners has come up with black friday myths. first, it is the busiest shopping day of the year. actually it will be the saturday before christmas they think. cyber monday is the busiest e-commerce day. no, that will be the last day of shipping by amazon for free delivery which will be december 17th. holiday 2009 will be lousy again. the firm sees 2.4% sales growth and even better profitability growth after a year of cost cutting. retailers will run out of hot items. customer growth says this is a lie, other than products like barns & nobles new e-book, which is a manufacturing issue. even the hard to find zhu zhu pets are being artificially constrained to hold up prices the same way pet rocks were in the 1970s, going way back. black friday is when retailers go into the black for the year. if you're running a retail business that doesn't make money every year until black friday, you should be fired by the next friday. by the way, guys, zhu zhu pets, i've seen projections now of 3ds 00 million in sales this year. >> are those the battery-operated hamsteres? >> $9 toy hamsters that are really annoying. >> just hamsters, though, no gerbils, right? >> joe! >> jane, i have a question. do you know whether uggs, do they make uggs yet for men? >> yes. >> do they? >> yes. >> do they? >> there you go. >> do you wear them? >> no, i'm just wondering. i have ten pair in this family, every color, my wife, my kid, my daughter. >> i think you would look so cute, very metrosexual in uggs. >> exactly. that's me. i like what you found out with proo crastination always wins, the last day you can get it there before christmas is the best one. >> that's what they're saying, december 17th, the last day amazon will guarantee delivery by christmas. did it say with free shipping? yeah. >> old cyber monday was based on the idea that most people still had dial up. they had the fast internet at the office and waited until monday. >> zhu zhu, is that from a wonderful life, is that where they get zhu zhu's petals? >> was that her name or something? >> yeah, zhu zhu's petals. i still cry. >> oh, clarence. >> you like him probably? zhu zhu's pet the petals? >> i don't know what that stuff -- haven't focused on any of that stuff yet. >> you would love "it's a wonderful life." >> i know "it's a wonderful life," frank caplan and his socialist ways. >> gerbil goods, which are going to go up. >> let's bring in our next guest now before this gets more embarrassing for me. >> why is it embarrassing for you? >> because i don't know about any of those products you're talking about. uggs, i don't even know what -- >> you don't have any girls in your family. >> advice chairman u.s. retailer of deloit, what's an ugg? can you tell me what that is? do you know? >> it's a very comfortable boot. i do know what they are. >> boot. >> they're very comfortable, so i hear. >> boot. >> lot of knockoffs, too. >> they make baby uggs too. >> baby uggs? >> oh, yeah. >> your survey over the past few days. you've done a survey about christmas shopping. what are you finding? >> that's right. couple of interesting things. 30% of the people that we surveyed plan to spend more now than they thought they would a couple of months ago. and they've said either they're already doing it or getting into the holiday spirit or feel like they paid down debt and feeling more comfortable about their financial position. really interesting thing was they said where they're spending more is really on the gift category. when we surveyed consumers a couple of months ago, the gift category was down in expectations from the prior year. they were looking to buy things for the home or buy things for themselves. i think it could bode well for retailers the next few weeks. >> are we now up in terms of comparisons from last year or just up from the comparison of the last survey you did? >> up in comparison to the last survey. our expectations for a flat holiday sales, you're looking at november, december and january. i wouldn't be surprised if we beat that. i think the consumer has increasing, you know, momentum going into the season. and speaking of some of these myths you were talking about earlier, we asked about online shopping over this weekend. you're right about cyber monday going away as the most popular online shopping day. we saw 23% of people that said they're go actually going to shop online over thanksgiving. >> it's mike holland, stacey. we continue to hear consumer electronics are doing well going into the end of the year. >> i don't know that that's necessarily true. when we asked about what are your favorite gift items, what are you going to go out and buy, apparel is still coming in as number two. we saw strong apparel sales and strong being relative. little bit better going into the holiday season. i do think that people are in a replenishment moment. i wouldn't say it's going to get cream creamed. >> i hear that value is still going to dominate in the mind of the consumer this holiday season, but then i hear that luxury is doing very well. and look at tiffany's results thus far and what they're expecting for the fourth quarter. what is it? is it one, both, a barbell, what? >> i think it's a little bit of a barbell. discounters clearly have the lead. they have a value proposition that you can't beat. consumers listed discounters as the number one destination that they were going to shop at. but when we did the survey earlier in september, we asked the question about will you shop at more expensive stores than you did the previous year? it was kind of a 10% to 15% range of consumers that said yes. i'm going to go, do something more expensive than i did last year. i think that there is some comeback there that we would expect this season. >> stacey, thank you very much for your help on this. >> thank you. >> joe? >> we're going to go to break. but then coming up -- before we go to break, annual squawk tradition complete with all the trimmings. we'll check in with butterball when we come back, butterball hotline, the ladies are already hard at work at the illinois call center. i have experience cooking a bird. i've done it. maybe i could still use a tip or two about certain things. >> all right. thanksgiving. my job is to prepare the perfect turkey. happens every year. first thing, cleanliness is next to godliness. someone else is going to have to turn this off. all right. there you go. here is the turkey. here is my stuffing. is this -- back here, right? >> gobble. >> pay no attention, doctor's orders. you might want to cough a little bit. whoa, that is cold! that's cold. that's cold and wet. and you really want to stuff it in here. you really want to -- in other words, you really want to pack it. ooh! okay. hold on a second. almost done here. all right. voila. ready to go now. with fidelity, you can take your trading around the world, because now you can trade u.s. and foreign stocks online, in 12 markets, 24 hours a day, all from the same account, and settle in u.s. dollars or the local currency. plus, we'll guide you with international research and realtime quotes, so you can diversify your portfolio, wherever -- whenever. and we'll be on call around the clock, while you trade around the globe. fidelity investments. turn here. operators are standing by. experts, really, and the lines are open at the butterball turkey talk line, where no question -- there may be a question too weird, but usually no question is too weird, no bird is beyond saving. carol miller, supervisor of the butterball turkey hotline. lot of questions today, carol. you should not pack the stuffing, that's number one. it should be very loose when you put it in, right? that was a big faux pas i made. >> that's one of the things we get asked by our callers. when you stuff the turkey, stuff it loosely. don't put too much in there. also, i don't know if you used a meat thermometer. it's important you take the temperature, it needs to be up to 165. today we'll get a lot of calls from people who are still in the grocery store. today would be a good day to buy a fresh butterball. look for the word fresh on there. bring it home. that way you don't have to thaw it. >> you should look for the word fresh and more importantly butterball on the turkey that you buy. liesman was talking about salmonella in the stuffing. that's why you want to get it up to 165. is that what you're talking about? >> that's right, 165 in the center of the stuffing. it's great. what you don't want to do is stuff it the night before. cook any of the raw ingredients that might be in your recipe, lightly stuff the turkey and then the last thing is to cook it thoroughly and use a meat thermometer. if you don't have a stuffed turkey, still use the meat thermometer, but put that in the thigh of the turkey. >> ouch. it goes in the same temperature you're talking about, 165? >> actually, in the thigh, uh-uh want to get up to 180. you want to take the bounciness out of the dark meat. >> don't need that. okay. so, it is safe -- this is actually coming from my wife. it is safe then to make the dressing in the turkey. you don't have to cook the dressing on the side? it's okay? >> relax. it's a tradition in my house. just relax. remember that you do need a meat thermometer. another tip that i might have is to cook the turkey in a pan like this one with shallow sides. it's so easy. even you can do it. breast side up, a little oil on it. that will make it shine and look real nice. then you can put a tent over the breast about halfway through the cooking in time. that slows down so the breast doesn't overcook and it gets the thigh up to temperature. meat thermometer again, in the thigh. >> you should take that stuff out, too, before you do any of this stuff that's wrapped in paper. >> right. >> that's something that you -- first tip. >> i'm going to put cheesecloth in there first so i can take the stuffing out in one fell swoop. what do you think of that idea? >> i heard people do that. you certainly can. you can use the cheesecloth or just use a spoon to get it out. either way will work. >> personally, i think it's heretical not to stuff the turkey. i want the stuffing in the turkey. on the side stuff, i'm not buying it. >> the gravy always a problem. any good tips for that? i've gotten sick because it's so greasy sometimes. it's gross. it gets lumpy. how do you do it? what are you laughing at? >> well, what you want to have is -- what you want to have is good drippings, cook the turkny an open pan like that, and all those juices go down to the bottom of the pan and caramelize and get really brown and tasty. then when you make the gravy, pour everything from the pan into a cup. you will have some of that turkey fat on the top. you only need a little bit of that for the gravy. the rest can go away. >> take it off. >> take it off. >> don't leave it. that's my recommendation. do not leave it. mike holland. >> you're never in the kitchen. what are you talking about? >> i have a question. do you actually have a guy like joe call you recently and ask you how you get the turkey done by half time of the football game? >> i did. i did. he had lost a bet to 20 friends and he was going to have to get the turkey on the table for everyone and he wanted to know -- that's his big question. when can i get my turkey into the oven so that it's done for half time? i gave him everything in football terms. i told him when the kickoff had to be. i told him that he didn't have to baste so that he wouldn't have to leave the tv. i never got a report back to him. but i think he had turkey on the table -- i hope his team won. >> do you know if that was joe kernen? >> be quiet. this is serious. one more question from home. should you put water in the pan with the turkey? >> you don't have to. the reason that you don't have to, if you want really great juices, which you talked about before -- >> yes. >> you want the pan to be hot in the bottom and all those juices caramelize and you get that nice, great flavor. >> wait. >> these are the kind of -- these are the kind of calls we get all day today and all day tomorrow at 1-800-butterball. call us. we can help you with all those questions. >> we're not laughing at you. >> no, no. >> joe will not ask me a question. >> go ahead. i have another one, but you go ahead. >> there's this trend to do a really slow roast, go down below 400, below 350, go down to 200 and go longer, that theory you get a juicier bird, do you advocate that? where do you come down on that controversy? >> no, we have always, for the 50 years that we've been -- butterball has been a brand, we recommend 325 from start to finish. makes a moist, juicy turkey every time. >> what percentage of people are going out on the grill and putting a big vat of like oil and deep frying these things? you're not going to get fat enough from the pies. >> half of the country. >> you have to deep fry your -- that must be a trans fat nightmare. >> martha stewart. >> you recommend that? you tell people to do that too? they start fires. >> a lot of people do deep fry their turkeys, cook them on a grill. sometimes the oven goes out on thanksgiving day. that's a great way to do a turkey. they give us a call and we'll walk them through that procedure. you have an ice storm and the oven goes out, brand new baby that arrives in the middle of thanksgiving dinner and you don't know what to do with the turkey, we're the folks to call. >> carol, thanks for your patience and your time. you know, i usually ask questions that i want to know. and i really -- these are things i learned a lot. do you know what the biggest day -- thank you, carol, from butterball. do you know the biggest day from rotorooter is? tomorrow, because everybody pours everything down the drain. >> you're supposed to put it in a coffee can. >> rotorooter, huge day tomorrow. they own a hospice service, too. >> i don't understand the connection there. >> they bought in the whole company and changed their name. >> you are just flush with information. >> i never saw you dominate an interview like that. normally joe is very sharing, despite what you think. on that interview, he would not let me in. >> i had ground to cover, was getting questions from home. >> are you going to cook the turkey tomorrow for the family? >> i'm going to make the dressing and stuff t i have a new electric knife. yeah. >> you're going to -- >> to cut the turkey? >> to cut the turkey, yeah. you're invited over. >> am i really? >> yeah, you are. >> not really. >> no, actually you're not. thanks. coming up, this morning's stocks to watch. names you need to know before the opening bell. then, still ahead, synchronize your watches if you wear one. 8:30 is the most important minute of the day. until power lunch starts at noon. deluge of data, jobless claims, durable goods all set to hit the tape. numbers, instant market analysis still ahead. for over 150 years, wells fargo has been putting our clients first. according to a leading independent research firm, in 2009 clients rated wells fargo advisors the #1 u.s investment firm for doing what's best for them. with advisors nearby and nationwide, we're with you when you need advice and planning expertise to meet today's challenges. wells fargo advisors. together we'll go far. ♪ [ male announcer ] the day you give someone a lexus is just the first of many memories you'll make with it. [ children scream ] ♪ [ laughs ] the lexus december to remember sales event, with some of the best values of the year. special lease offers now available on the 2010 rx 350. now through january 4th. right. >> like economists and stuff. >> yeah. let's take a look at stocks to watch this morning. deere better than expected and raising guidance for the year. that stock is indicated lower at this point. tiffany reporting third quarter net at 33 cents a share versus expectations of 23 cents. and the company also reported $598 million in revenue. that was above expectations. full year guidance goes to 188 to 198. and that is above the 165 to 175 and above the first call estimate. that stock is trading sharply higher. some would say maybe it was depressed as a luxury goods retailer. >> only doubled in the last year. >> help from the weak dollar, because that fifth avenue flagship store gets so many foreigners who go in and want to buy something tiffany. breakfast at tiffany's. >> get the blue box. >> yeah, the blue box. >> it's interesting that the analysts said there's been a shrink in capacity out there and tiffany is around to pick up some of the -- >> lot of mom and pop shops have gone out of business. >> i wouldn't be crazy enough to, you know, get the blue box, you're paying super retail, steve. >> yes. >> you can go to the jewelry district and -- >> get the very same thing for much less. >> go into the 57th street store, buy a key ring. >> for the box. >> then you go down to 47th street and buy something serious. >> that is devious. new high for tiffany. >> like mal gifting. >> exactly. that's a new high. all-time high somewhere up around -- if we go back to february of 2000, about 56 or so. >> look where it was 12 months ago. >> i know. it was down to 16. down into the teens. microsoft goldman sachs says the cfo transition should not have an impact on the shares and micron was removed from the short-term buy list that ubs -- see if that affects that today. michelle? joining us, here with his market predictions, stan stoval. and then "squawk" prepares to ring in a new year. before going forward, it's time to look back. terrorist bombings, natural disasters, financial crises, has this been the worst decade ever? time magazine thought about calling it that. now it's the decade from hell. cover story straight ahead after this. with fidelity, you can take your trading around the world, because now you can trade u.s. and foreign stocks online, in 12 markets, 24 hours a day, all from the same account, and settle in u.s. dollars or the local currency. plus, we'll guide you with international research and realtime quotes, so you can diversify your portfolio, wherever -- whenever. and we'll be on call around the clock, while you trade around the globe. fidelity investments. turn here. i drove my first car from my parent's home in the north of england to my new job at the refinery in the south. i'll never forget. it used one tank of petrol and i had to refill it twice with oil. a new car today has 95% lower emissions than in 1970. exxonmobil is working to improve cars, liners of tires, plastics which are lighter and advanced hydrogen technologies that could increase fuel efficiency by up to 80%. america on the move. >> what's the flight situation? >> we would have more luck playing pick up sticks with our butt cheeks than getting a flight out of here. >> in a pretty lousy mood, huh? >> to say the least. >> ever travel by bus before? your mood's probably not going to improve much. >> cramming it all in ahead of thanksgiving. breaking news on jobs, durable goods and consumer spending. all at 8:30 am eastern. "squawk box" begins right now. i was hoping they would show the end, chevy chase, overcooked that thing. did you see that? dust comes out. it's awful. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc first in business worldwide. i'm joe kernen, along with michelle caruso-cabrera and steve liesman. becky and carl are not here tod today. i think i'll be here with carl on friday. our guest host is mike holland of holland and company. we are on the verge of getting three major economic errors, jobless claims, personal income and spending and orders for durable goods. we'll have all the numbers and the instant reaction at 8:30 eastern time. but ahead of the data, the futures right now are indicating a positive open of about 30 points. the hair on your neck, steve, was on end thinking about these numbers. >> i'm preparing right now, trying to zone in, get in to the zen of the data, instead of instant analysis on what it all says about the economy. >> computer? >> computer warming up, notes for myself and trying to figure out -- last time we broke, it was 500, january 3rd. you really have to go back to the middle of '08 to get down below 500,000 on a sustained basis. >> but that was january. >> wall street journal says it doesn't matter if you go below 500,000. >> what do you mean it doesn't matter? i mean, i read that. i didn't agree with it. >> yeah, just -- >> we should stay high, that would be good. we should stay above 500,000. >> he's joking. >> thank you for that. >> not with mike, but the wall street journal. deere and company, analysts had been looking for a profit of three cents a share. shares of tiffany & company called higher, both earnings and revenue better than expected. raising its outlooks as it continues to tighten inventory, cut costs. benmosche had been talking about leaving aig. he gets $3 million cash, already agreed to by the pay czar, $4 million in fully vested aig stock. can't sell that vest ed stock fr five years of the august start date as part of the deal. 38 million americans are expected to go somewhere this holiday. aaa says that is up 1.4% from last year. let's head to reagan national where we find nbc's tom costello. >> john candy sound bite you ran at the beginning, something about his derriere? >> yeah, butt cheeks. >> that's kernen running all that stuff. >> play pick-up sticks with your butt cheeks. >> reporter: priceless. here is the situation today with travel across the country. we are watching some weather, just really some rain showers. faa says minimal delays across the country right now. if you're flying, the planes are going to be packed and the skies are going to be full. from a cloudy, foggy runway in chicago to a rain-swept ramp in d.c. >> at this time, we're boarding all rows, all passengers. >> reporter: and all points across the country, the national thanksgiving rush is on. >> you have your bags yet, tampa bags upstairs? >> reporter: united airlines control room at o'hare, it's all about keeping the parts moving. >> arrival rate isn't impacting us at all. it's slowing down enough where we don't have one coming in right after the other. >> two jet bridge tas. >> reporter: united predicts 100,000 passenger also pass through the chicago hub today, fewer than previous years, but still up 10% over a typical wednesday. >> carry on. keep it simple. make it fun. >> plan well in advance. this is just getting ready for game day. >> reporter: while at us airways hub in washington -- >> flight 1825. 823. >> reporter: lisa scott knows the routine well. >> what's the secret to staying sane if you're a flight attendant? >> yoga. lots of deep breaths. >> reporter: the airlines anticipate just under 2 million flyers to pass through all the nation's airports today. the busiest air travel days will be sunday and monday with just over 2 million flyers each day and 23-year veteran lynnwood harris knows what they're thinking. >> about that wonderful dinner at grandma's house, expectations of getting there on time and having their bag arrive with them as well. >> it's a family obligation. right? >> yeah. it's going to be fun. the heartland. it's going to be fun. it's going to be great. >> check this in for your flight early. please plan on arriving at the airport two hours ahead. >> reporter: good news, it looks to be snow and ice free. >> weather is cooperating. passengers are moving well and flying is good. >> reporter: all right. you heard that air traffic will be down 4% this holiday over last year. last year was down about 6.5% over the year before. airlines have been taking capacity out of the system. so, if you miss your flight, you probably won't catch the next one. you're going to be hitchhiking. back to you. >> we were discussing that earlier. in theory that means you take off and land far more likely on time, so we hope. thank you, tom. see you later. >> reporter: cross your fingers. phil lebeau has breaking news from toyota. phil? >> reporter: this is something that's -- we've got some word overnight. now we're getting word in the last couple of hours. toyota is going to be holding a press conference, conference call if you will, within the next half hour to announce changing regarding the recall that the company announced, 3.8 million vehicles involving accelerators being trapped by the floor mat. they'll be reconfiguring those accelerators. we'll get more details on the conference call in the next half hour. they'll be putting a brake override system for certain models, acomplaint getting more notice across the country. when i was trying to slow down in some fashion, my vehicle was accelerating. toyota announcing it will reconfigure the accelerator in addressing this recall in 3.8 million vehicles. we'll have details. back to you. >> thanks, phil. in between thanksgiving and christmas, s&p on average has gained half a percent. so far this year, the index rising 22% overall. stan soval and our guest host wall street veteran mike holland. i can't remember the last time you were on "squawk box." i don't know how you felt since march or in july. what has been your overall outlook for equities as we moved up 65% in the face of a lot of skepticism? >> joe, i guess you could look it up, my book that was published in early march, the preface read don't miss the surge after the slump, don't be like charlie brown who says i feel like when my ship comes in, i'll be at the airport. a bull market takes a lot of people by surprise. i was on the floor of the exchange with maria, talking about how you don't want to sell in may and then go away. traditionally the months of athe beginning of a new bull market tend to, in a sense, turn history on its ear, having better than expected august, september, october, et cetera, as the momentum gains. >> sometimes the economists can just know too much. they're just staring the tree right in the face, i think, steven -- or sam, and not looking at the forest. >> that's freudian. >> yeah, yeah. >> sam, i'll handle that. >> no, no, because yesterday i'm thinking about the notion that this recession, great recession, near depression, whatever you want to call it, it's unlike any of the others because it was due to a credit bubble. therefore, the lingering effects are much longer and different than your normal, you know, bull market that comes after a cyclical recession. that's the other side, sam. there are people that think we're in a ten-year depression and this is a bear market bounce that's just going to eventually peter out and we're going to go back down. >> i think what you're describing is what we saw in 1966 to 1982. basically a series of four cyclical bull markets within a secular bear market. i don't think that that's certainly out of the question. i think the triggers for all bear markets due tend to be different. certainly when was the last time we had a prime rate of 21%? when was the last time we had a 22% decline in one day? when was the last time that we thought that tech was undervalued at 70 times projected earnings? so i think the triggers for bear markets are different. but they tend to go through similar routines. same with bull markets. they go through a three-step dance where you have the initial bounce off the bottom. we then have a digestion of the gains and then we tend to advance an average of 36% off that digestion low. so, that's basically what we're following right now. >> we can do another 36%. is that where you're getting overly exuberant? first you get the snap back to where we are now, and the realization that profits are going to come back and then you overshoot. >> i don't think i'm that optimistic. certainly the initial recovery, we tend to retrace about 30% of what we lost in the entire bear market in the first 40 some odd days of a new bull market. that's what we did. we tend to give back 7%. that's exactly what we did from early june to early july. then we tend to get about a 36% advance off that digestion low, which was at 880 on the s&p 500, which would, therefore, point to a cyclical height at 1200, come the third quarter of 2010. >> mike, does the idea that joe put out there need to be long, that this is a subdued recovery, that it needs to be more robust? >> quick answer, steve, is no. i'm going to deflect this right back to sam. i'm going to ask him the question incorporating that. as a student of market history, as you are, sam, could you for the viewers overlay where we are now with the political and economic backdrop and the credit crisis we just had with the 1970s market where we had some things that some people say are kind of similar? >> right. good morning, michael. certainly we do have a different scenario today in terms of the credit markets, et cetera. we do find we're flooding the markets with liquidity. something that is very similar to the 1970s, early 1980s is the elevated level of unemployment. we peaked out at 10.8% in 1982. we think we're going to peak out at 10.6% in the summer of 2010. we have gone through a substantial improvement in equity prices while unemployment has remained high. in 1990, we actually anticipated the peak in unplimt by 21 months. and in 1982, the market was up for a full year before the unemployment rate went below 10%. i think certainly that in the 1970s, as we're seeing now, it's energy stocks and material stocks that are doing the best. because of the fear of inflation, because of global economic opportunities, et cetera. and so in many ways, there are repeats of what we saw back then. >> thanks, sam. >> thank you, sam. good to see you. happy thanksgiving. >> yep. happy thanksgiving to you, too. >> mike will stay put for another -- 48 minutes, okay? >> that's okay. >> we need him around. we are trading into this holiday with a ton of economic data that we'll observe before the opening bell. it all happens in about 13 minutes, 8:30 am eastern time. the cover of "time" magazine, the decade from hell, managing editor will give us the details and glimmers of hope for maybe the next ten years. "squawk box" is coming right back. the latest issue of "time" magazine is up online, declaring this the decade from hell. outlining the reasons and how the next one can be better. a andy joins us from new york along with "time's" managing editor. andy, i'm surprised. you're a business reporter. when i look at what you say is the cause for the decade from hell, you say it's greed. >> it's not really greed so much, michelle, as deferral of responsibility, neglect. >> it says right here, greed. >> tess a little greed. short-term greed is bad. long-term greed is good. the causes that led us down this path, we had 9/11, financial turmoil throughout the decade, katrina. we had a manner of things relating to the financial system. a lot of it had to do with we'll put off today what we really need to address now and let it happen in the next decade. look at something like general motors. it's just deferral of responsibilit responsibility. >> does congress fall into that? >> absolutely. >> did you see a mention of congress in this, mike? >> no. i mentioned that to michelle before we came on. >> really? >> i was shocked that congress didn't even get a pass on this thing. >> i love congress. and i know you do, too, mike. i know everyone at cnbc does. it's probably one of your favorite institutions. >> along with the rest of america. >> exactly. absolutely, they're responsible. >> want to weigh in here, rick, after your warm reception here on "squawk". >> i'm happy to weigh in. view of the last decade, not just about economic numbers but our sense of self, sense of destiny as a nation. it was book ended by 9/11 in the beginning, the financial meltdown at the end and katrina in the middle. in many ways it undermined our sense of self, ambition and sense of confidence as a nation. it's changed the concept of american conceptualism. congress, of course, is partially to blame. but they're a symptom of so many of the things andy talked about. it's not just greed but the deferral of responsibility. reckoning with things we need to do. build our infrastructure, things that we kicked down the road where once upon a time we addressed forthrightly. >> islamic extremists are somewhere in the mention? it's not all our fault. >> no, it's not all our fault. what 9/11 did, among other things, is remove the sense of american invulnerability, that we were protected by oceans on both sides. suddenly we were part of the world and a target in a way we've never been before. that changed our sense of self. >> the totality in this that i'm reading is we are to blame, our inward-looking culture and our neglect is to blame for why we were attacked. >> no, that's not true. >> i don't know what you're -- you're reading a press release, right? read the story is what i would say. >> the press release is different from the story? >> did you read the story? >> usually is, yeah. >> the worst decade ever and how the next one can be better. >> that's good. let's talk about it. >> i think i'm looking at a disembargo'ed version. this is not? this is not the article? six pages here. >> there are plenty of outside reasons why -- for example, katrina was an act of god. we did not cause it. but as andy points out, we weren't prepared for it. the army corps of engineers built the levees to a 100-year standard instead of the 200-year standard or 500-year standard. is that an act off god or dereliction on our part? it's a combination. >> how do we solve it andy? >> by virtue of the fact that we're not falling into some of the same traps. savings rate is up. when you see some guy that wants to sell you some exotic adjustable rate mortgage that's predicated on your house doubling in the next three years, you might take a pass on that. when you look at the u.s. auto industry, you see rationalization going on right now. so i think that, you know, silicon valley is a beacon of hope. a lot of innovation going on there. i think it's -- the american dream is far from over. i think this say slap in the face, a kick in the head. and, you know, i think it's a good thing. tough medicine we've had this decade. now we'll move on. >> current version of the story is below. yes, i was reading the story. anyone else? >> is there a conclusion in this piece, richard, about more or less government here? >> what andy says is that we were probably too optimistic going into the decade and we're too pessimistic coming out of it. we do make the point that certain things have to be addressed and probably the onliet entity that can address them is government. rebidding our infrastructure is very hard to do from a private purpose angle. >> government failed when it came to infrastructure. a lot of credible theory and thoughts and examples from around the world where privatization of infrastructure is far more effective, efficient. >> michelle, quickly let me throw this to andy. we were in a period of time, multidecade period where we believed less government was better and the free market ought to handle some of the things that government did. is there a sense we went too far? >> i think you can argue, steve, the deregulation failed. that's a controversial point, but you had people suggesting we needed more deregulation of financial markets. i think you can argue that the financial markets were not kind to us over the past, say, 15, 20 years even. was that because of deregulation? i don't know. i do know that the financial markets in london were deregulated a bit more than they were in new york. england is in worse shape. financial markets in iceland were deregulated more in england and the united states and that country is bankrupt. do we need more oversight of our financial markets? you could argue that we do. >> the economy in the markets enough to hang themselves, andy. if you want an economy like china, you can have it totally regulated where you grow 10% every year and nothing ever happens because of regulation. >> right. >> i mean, maybe that's where your personal responsibility is on target, to some extent. greed, bubbles, fear, all the things humans are known for in a free market, those things are going to eventually come home to roost at different times, right? >> i think that's right. no one wants our system to go like china, obviously. we want to have a market economy. we have a great balance. that's why we're the greatest economy on the planet. and that's why we are emulated by so many countries, it's all sort of tied into our system. so -- and i think that, you know, the cycles are a necessary part of history. they could be painful. and i think to the extent that we can help modulate them a little bit, maybe that's a good thing. >> yeah. viewers are incensed here a little bit. did you call it the worst peace time decade in history? this gentleman said i thought we were in a war against terrorists. i guess it's not a war at this point. we stopped calling it that. >> is that semantics? it's a battle, terrible battle. obviously people have died and that's a horrible thing. it's not a peace time but it's not really war time. ask people who lived through the 1940s. they would say this is not a war-time decade. >> not a world war, that's for sure. >> thanks, guy. >> thanks for having us. >> thank you. most up-to-date numbers on the market. "squawk box" will be right back. , in 12 markets, 24 hours a day, all from the same account, and settle in u.s. dollars or the local currency. plus, we'll guide you with international research and realtime quotes, so you can diversify your portfolio, wherever -- whenever. and we'll be on call around the clock, while you trade around the globe. fidelity investments. turn here. ♪ [ male announcer ] the day you give someone a lexus is just the first of many memories you'll make with it. [ squeals ] ♪ [ tires screech ] [ tires screech ] ♪ the lexus december to remember sales event, with some of the best values of the year. special lease offers now available on the 2010 es 350. now through january 4th. on the 2010 es 350. home prices nationwide improve in the third quarter. may have been price of gold higher by another $16. 1,182 per ounce, gain of more than 1%. >> that as you know believable, is it not? india said it was open to buying more. >> india is buying more, yeah. >> and then the dollar, i guess. >> a lot of talk. today is a crucial day for the dollar, 15-month low print when it comes. you know what's really going to drive it? the barrage, deluge, flood, three huge economic reports about to be released at 8:30, durable goods, personal income and spending, all when "squawk box" returns. this is what it comes down to, holiday short week, three reports, weekly jobless claim, durable goods and personal income and spending. rick, steve, mike holland in the studio and john -- >> falling to 495. what else have we got here? >> personal income up 0.2%. >> durable goods orders upsetting to the down side with a minus 0.6. let me check that number there. >> dow in the future. there we go. like the jobless numbers today. >> no, they don't. >> even though the wall street -- >> watch every tick, holland. yes, they do. no, they don't. yeah, they do. no, no. >> so, below 500,000. >> yep, yep. no. >> first time since when? >> january 3rd this year. >> no, no. ye yeah, no, no. >> what about continuing? >> continuing claims going to take -- there's the table right there. hold on a second. >> 14 week continuing claims down to 5.4 million, 14-week jobless claims revised to 505,000, november 14th. >> all right. let's get some more reaction. you heard -- john braidny chicago, at first blush, what do you think? >> it's a bit of a mixed bag, joe. let's break it down into the throw components, consumer, pc data seems to suggest that consumers are back, spending more thn they earned, which probably has negative ramifications for the domestic savings rate. little bit soft than expected. boeing's earning rate was softer than expected. electrical usage for the month was down as well. so, the durable goods number is being softer than expected. probably not that big of a surprise. weekly claims numbers obviously stronger than expected. we've seen the dollar pretty much steady trade here. s&p maintained positive bias we go into the new york opening. for fed policy, really, i don't think these numbers really mean a whole lot. fed will most likely be on hold through the turn of the year and next part of next year. we need to sort of remember that even though weekly jobless claims are dropping, new jobs really are yet to be created here. we're sort of in this lull period as it regards policy and job creation. for the most part, look at the three data sets here, pretty soft with durable goods numbers. claims numbers out for hope. >> 0 .7%, onwonder if that bode well. >> savings is also -- >> would you rather have people make more money or spend more money in this current environment? government wants them to spend. i want them to have better income. i don't know. >> they're saving, though, too, which is a good thing. the balance sheet more in order. >> i would like to see more on the income. >> credit markets, rick. 334 on the ten-year, 427 on the long bond and short end looks like -- >> they're popping up. >> shares up a little bit. >> this morning, i was getting ready, packing. boy, that guy was absolutely terrific. i was so jealous. he has a great reputation. he brought up a key point. i think the biggest story today, without a doubt in my opinion, is dollar under 88. i enjoyed it. i didn't say i agreed with him. >> you're right, rick. he seemed to suggest that today was a very, very crucial day, technically speaking and this move against the yen, if it started to break, 85 very quickly and potentially 80 as well. also the 150 move today against the euro. >> he also said that he thought that one of the solutions to the problems out there in the global environment is a weaker dollar. that was one of his conclusions. >> he is a bureaucrat. i'm sure he will lean that way. >> now you're going to dis him south florida i said i enjoyed him and -- there's a lot of people i like that i disagree with. bring facts to the party. that's all. >> that's an issue, rick. disinflation, of course. he would be an expert in that. >> i said that. i said that. thank you. >> see, right on the money. >> from japan. you're so phobic about deinflammation at this point that you see it everywhere probably at this point. you couldn't recognize a -- >> all of their sterilization process. i was surprised that even brought up intervention. japanese haven't intervened, i believe, since '03. it was an absolutely dud of a program, wasted a boatload of money, sterilized it, had no benefit. i certainly hope tim geithner doesn't go down that road. >> that was his expectation, that geithner would not be a guy to intervene, but does think geithner wants a weaker dollar. >> is very happy with a weaker dollar. >> my point is that i -- >> steve likes it. >> i think that the stronger than it should be dollar, put it that way, is a subsidy to europe and it's a subsidy to china and it's a subsidy to japan and keeps them from having to get their act in order and increase domestic consumption. >> steve, i'm going to defer to you on that. as an american, i want a strong dollar, period. end of story. >> but why? that sounds so -- >> no, it isn't. that's what you buy stuff with. >> as an american, i want this. >> that's right. >> what are the economic values of a stronger value? >> we're an import country. >> more what? >> more of everything. >> what's your definition of an import country? >> yeah. we export a ton. >> trade deficit. >> we import a certain amount. how much do we use domestically? how much dollar stuff is initially priced in dollars, rick? >> at the end of the day, the reason -- think about the reason. it's all mumbo jumbo when it comes to economics. why are experts doing better in a weaker dollar? overseas people can buy more than us. it's that simple. >> right. we should have a stronger dollar, which would close more factories in the heartland of america. >> you know what? factories aren't closing because -- you know why factories are closing? because people in china are making a buck and we're making 45 and 50. look at chicago mccormick place. >> you're with me. >> $400 case a pop. >> what's the solution to that problem, rick? >> let the private sector work it out. outsourcing isn't horrible. let the creativity of america become -- >> we'll send those jobs over. what would happen over time is that we would have a trade imbalance. >> i'm not worried about a trade imbalance. the economy is worried about trade imbalances. give them paper. give me tvs. keep my dollar strong. end of story. adam who? >> adam who? >> adam who? >> adam smith talked about how this stuff works its way out. >> invisible hand stuff. >> it adjusts itself, rick. >> four years ago, because this is different. you're bringing up adam smith. >> if you are in favor of the market, you would tend to be in favor of a weaker dollar. all the market signals point to a weaker dollar. huge deficit with china. >> don't care. >> the way it adjusts is through the currency mechanism. >> so, do you think -- >> i don't know what's wrong with that logic. >> -- tinker with china, try to get their currency flow higher at this point? do you think that's a good idea? >> absolutely. >> it's a horrible idea. >> why? >> we can't buy what we used to buy in other areas. that currency comes up, we become so less interesting to them. we can't do it now. >> artificial subsidy to chinese exports. that hurts americans. >> that relationship didn't exist, it's proved to be great. you can't pull a skyscraper and pull out the bottom brick. >> you're arguing against a free market for currencies? >> it's time, though. we let a situation create utsz. nobody thought china would get here. the last 20 years, that link has done well by them. it's done a lot of positive things. i agree. i believe in free market. this would be a horrible time to deconstruct with all the issues going on. >> never a good time. >> we have to go. sorry, john brady. >> sorry, john brady. i'll buy you some cholesterol when i get back. >> you're on fast money tonight. >> i am. >> doing drops and pops when you're capable of this. >> diamond and dogs, you're absolutely right. >> do a little bit of this. >> thank you, rick. toxic convention -- i thought we just had him on here. >> i want that title, steve. >> you can have it, rick. senior vice president of trip will give us details on the deal going south. hi, ellen! hi, ellen! hi, ellen! hi, ellen! we're going on a field trip to china! wow. [ chuckles ] when i was a kid, we -- we would just go to the -- the farm. [ cow moos ] [ laughter ] no, seriously, where are you guys going? ni hao! ni hao! ni hao! ni hao! ni hao! ni hao! ni hao! ni hao! ni hao! ni hao! ni hao! ni hao! [ female announcer ] the new classroom. see it. live it. share it. on the human network. cisco. weekly jobless claims falling below 500,000 for the first time since january! that has given the dow jones futures a boost. 56 points higher, suggesting we are going to get a positive open. our next guest, michelle, can best be described as a toxic anchor, hired by the new york fed, leading provider of cnbs and commercial information. mike holland also joins the conversation. so, let me ask you -- first, set the scene here. how bad is cnbs? is anything the fed is doing helping out the situation? >> underlying assets are performing poorly. probably top 5% at the end of october it was at 4.8%. that's up by six times since the beginning of the year, easily. with regard to whether the programs that the fed has put in place has helped the market, we see the prices of the secures in the secondary market have strengthened significantly since the program was announced and that has continued through the operations of the program over the summer. one other -- >> go ahead. yeah, go ahead. >> one other piece of good news is the first new issue program that was eligible for financing through the fed was done and completed this month, backed by a pool of properties from developers, diversified real estate out in the midwest, retail malls. the transaction was $400 million, oversubscribed, all the bonds were sold at very good interest rates. the markets improved considerably since the program was started. >> has the problem been solved? about commercial real estate, there are a lot of banks, thousands of banks around the country that have huge commercial real estate portfolios and those banks are in danger. at the end of the day, commercial real estate is the next source of systemic risk. is that your view? >> i think commercial real estate has further to go in terms of poor performance. the real estate lags the rest of the economy by anywhere from 12 to 18 months. the jobless claims shows we're starting to see an easing of the unemployment situation, some of the gdp information has been positive. if the economy is starting to turn around now, we're not going to see it turn around in commercial real estate until some time late in 2010, early 2011. there will be continued pain in that market space. we've said all along that we expect delinquencies to double by this level this time next year. >> you could help the viewers with in terms of its significance, this multibillion dollar investment and where we are today. could you flush that out for people and tell them what the significance is? >> sure. for folks that aren't in new york and don't realize it, a very large apartment complex in lower manhattan called peter cooper village stuyvesant town, on 80 acres, 11,000 apartment units. that property was sold by met life in 2006 to a joint venture, private firm that predicated its purchase on the idea that they could convert these rent stabilized apartments to market rents over time. so, as a result of their assumptions, they paid $5.4 billion for the property. they have not been able to convert the apartments for two reasons. one is the market has just softened in general with the economy. the other is there have been some legal challenges to their whole program. the net result is the property is not generating enough money to even pay its first mortgage, about $3 billion and the property is worth -- most people say somewhere around $2 to $2.2 billion. >> asking $5.4 in just a couple of years? >> yes. >> if they could do something. apparently the two partners in this deal are close to being out of cash? >> the property its has been paying interest out of reserves for a very long period of time. that fund is almost empty. >> right. >> out of the cnbs deal that the fed did, this was such a great deal so, well structured that that's why all the profit came n the other was this is a benchmark, helping to set a benchmark for where the market is right now. what's your view of that deal? are there others to come that will equally be well subscribed by the public sector? >> the view is that deal was very successful. like most financing under falf, it was bought without need for leverage. a lot of investors don't use leverage in their portfolio, accumulating cash and now it's time to start putting it to work. what we've heard in the market is that there's at least three or four other deals that will try to come between now and the end of the year, most of which will not go through that eligibility. they'll sell these properties and deals into the market because they view the success of the ddr deal as saying that the market is open again. people will start bringing deal. >> i work generally, tom, at a station that doesn't look kindly to government intervention in the markets. is this an example where the government has helped the market find its own way here? >> i think the market has found its own way. the fed has provided it some stability in the market, which has helped. that's my opinion. obviously i can't speak for the fed itself. >> tom, thank you very much. >> thank you. >> michelle? up next, holiday edition of the trader's edge. first let's check on the dollar as we head to break, hitting key levels earlier today. this is 15-month low on the dollar index, 74.49. fithe same tools the pros use, so you can be a disciplined trader. by selecting from eight advanced triggers, your order gets executed, even when you're busy. and with trailing stops to help you lock in profits and minimize risk, you can be confident in your strategy, no matter which way the market moves. find out why more and more active traders are turning to fidelity for a smarter way to trade online. trade like a pro. trade with fidelity. time for the trader's edge. joining us, art cashin, director of floor operations at ubs financial services. happy thanksgiving, art. two big things happening today, initial jobless claims, below 500,000 and we've got this big move in the dollar in some of these critical levels that we had mr. yen on talking this morning. what's more important? >> i think the dollar moves are more important. they have been driving the market now for almost two full months. whenever the dxy, the dollar index, dips, stocks go up. look at gold today. it's on another tear. so those are up. i think the initial claims may actually have benefited from the holiday. you know, employers might be a little low to fire or lay somebody off a week before thanksgiving getting that ebeneezer scrooge look that makes the holidays up. >> he was talking this morning in the 6:00 hour about cracking against 88 yen and he said 85 could be next and then 80 very quickly. if that happens, at what point -- you're so great about this. at some point good news becomes bad news, right? >> absolutely. if the decline in the dollar became precipitous, if it turned into a kind of rapid move, almost panicky selling, that might convert. the other side which nobody is looking at right now but i've written about over the last couple of weeks is if you have some kind of unexpected geopolitical event and the dollar becomes that safety vehicle again. if people rushed into it, that would be very disruptive to the stock market. so the dollar is is critical both ways here. and it's the velocity that you have to watch. >> art, is there a reason that the market loves the dollar here or is it only because it works as a way to trade stocks? >> it's become a funding currency. and that's why you see generally commodities and particularly gold, and you see other risk assets like the stock market go up. and that's why, as i say, if suddenly people ran into it in a flight to safety, they would have to undo those funding instruments and it would be like a reverse short cover. it would be like margin calls, the equivalent of that. >> are there levels that you use specifically, 160 to the euro and 80, is that a level that worries you, art? >> it's more how you get there and how quickly you get there. you know, it's like the old frog in the pan and the water heating slowly. if it's slow, the frog doesn't know he's being boiled alive. things heat up, that frog wants to get out of there and people want to get out of whatever instruments they're? >> happy thanksgiving. it's mike. >> hi, mike. happy thanksgiving to you. >> the last few weeks you've been pointing oug correctly the dollar, the dollar, the dollar. you've also said, as you said, the geopolitical thing could be a surprise, could be nasty. the technicals, be nimble because they're moving on us. >> yeah, i think we're benefiting this week, i assume thanksgiving upward bias. but there are divergences. things like the russell 2,000 which represents a lot of smaller stocks which led much of the early rally for march is now lagging. and it is underperforming, it's below the 50-day moving average. you saw yesterday people moving out of the financials, moving toward dividend paying stocks. there are signs of growing caution here. those divergences, we don't have time to do it this morning, mike. i'll try to put it in next week's letter. fewer new highs in stocks at the same time we're seeing new highs in some of the averages if reverse of that is what led to the march rally. you've got to be cautious here. >> you're the best. >> art, happy thanksgiving. i want to clarify, not everyone's turkey starts at with a wild, a wild turkey. there's a lot of people that actually put somebody in a oven and don't stuff it with ice cubes, they stuff it with bread and stuffing and stuff. i don't know. >> joe, my belief on thanksgiving is i baste myself and let the turkey take care of itself. >> i knew you would have something to come back with on that. >> happy thanksgiving. coming up, a few parting shots. first, check out gold prices this morning. "squawk box" is coming right back. um bill-- why is dick butkus here? i hired him to speak. a lot of fortune 500 companies use him. but-i'm your only employee. we're going to start using fedex to ship globally- that means billions of potential customers. we're gonna be huge. good morning! you know business is a lot like football. i just don't understand... i'm sorry dick butkus (announcer) we understand. your business could use a pep talk. visit fedex.com/peptalk ♪ [ male announcer ] the day you give someone a lexus is just the first of many memories you'll make with it. [ engine revs ] [ tires screech ] oh, very funny. ♪ [ male announcer ] the lexus december to remember sales event with some of the best values of the year. ♪ special lease offers now available on the 2010 is 250, now through january 4th. guest host -- that's not him there. our guest host is mike holland. that's at the butterball factory in naperville, illinois. and so he thinks that i -- that i monopolize the interview? i don't. >> me? i don't say that. >> only the butterball interview. >> i've never seen you monopolize an interview like the butterball. >> i had ground to cover. i had questions to ask. >> intellectual curiosity about turkeys. unusual. >> it's congenital. >> what should we use? be thankful? i got one quick e-mail i could use that, you know, they blame -- we saw "time" magazine and who they blamed for a lot of the decade. >> i think they blamed you. >> i think it's the kerry trade. senator kerry has done enough damage. that is why he should stop trading in the market, so he doesn't destroy the rest of the planet. >> i don't want to take mike's time here. >> take it. >> see a partisan shot. >> it's a kerry trade, you buffoon. it's a joke. it's not senator kerry. >> you take it. >> can't we all just get along? >> it was funny. >> that's your problem. >> that you can't see that that was -- senator kerry, the kerry trade. this viewer thinks that he's in the markets trading it. he wants ron paul to come in. are we going to be okay? >> we're going to be fine. art cashin is as good as it gets. and there's been a complete correlation between the dollar and all the other things that trade. commodities including stocks. i think his point is well taken. that if we get something that pushes the dollar up, something in the geo politically was his word, that will change things. probably an opportunity. things are going to get better. but for now, the political and economic backdrop are like the '70s and the stocks have done very well as in the '70s because there's nothing we else to do with your money. >> do you expect the tax situation and other situations that are looming, do you expect that to somehow be

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