percentage point or two. you see that reflected in s&p futures, up about 1% on the day. not much going on in the treasury market. as a lot ofclines folks unwind some of those haven bids. take a look at what is going on yuan, a little bit stronger than that key seven level. pre-much everything rebounding as the sentiment shifts to a slightly more positive tone than what we had just a couple of days ago. exchangefor the global -- sonali: first we have some news coming in. we have phillips missing estimates, falling $0.04 short of what analysts were looking for. conocophillips here, keeping their dividend steady. shares before market rising a little bit still. we were looking for them to have results better than their peers. all of the oil companies have had a rough quarter. romaine: we are seeing that capex spending coming in pre-much in line with what analysts were much ing -- in pretty line with what analysts were expecting. some encouraging signs off of what is kind of a bad earnings season for big oil. sonali: absolutely. good for everybody else, the. romaine: time now for our global exchange. we will go from des moines, iowa to hong kong, london, and new york. we begin in iowa. the winners from the first democratic presidential nomination contest, we don't know who they are. the iowa democratic party officially delayed those results due to what it called inconsistencies in the reporting process. candidates spoke to supporters while waiting for formal results. have anders: i imagine, strong feeling, that at some point the results will be announced. [cheers and applause] sen. sanders: and when those results are announced, i have a good feeling we are going to be doing very, very well here in iowa. [cheers and applause] romaine: joining us from des moines, david westin, the host of "bloomberg: balance of power," as well as "wall street week." a lot of candidates seem to be declaring victory. winner going to get all of this sorted out? david: we have no idea is the simple answer. we all came to des moines to get the first reaction of real voters of who should be the candidate for the democratic party, and become a not knowing -- and we come away not knowing. there were problems with an app in the precincts to tally these things. as we came to air last night, while we were supposed to be getting results, we got word that there were going to be delays, they had problems, and there were reports of inconsistencies. in the meantime, vice president biden's campaign writing a letter to the democratic party here saying, we want to sit down with you and have something to say about what happens before you release any official results. at this point, we don't know when they will announce results. the irony is these candidates have to go on to new hampshire a week from today, and in between there's the state of the union address that might suck some of the oxygen out of the room. sonali: what are our expectations for what donald trump is going to say? david: we think he's going to declare. victory, basically. . . that he's done an awful lot of good -- owing to declare victory, basically. that he's done an awful lot of good. that he strong economy deserves a little bit of credit for. it is not clear how much he will say. apparently he will talk about middle-class tax cuts. he thinks there are more bilateral trade relationships he wants to work on in the future. one of the big questions, can he restrain himself from crowing a bit on what appears to be an acquittal verdict likely coming down tomorrow? it is unclear how much will be on impeachment as a peers -- as he appears before the very senators in the trial. historically unprecedented. romaine: don't forget to tune into bloomberg later tonight for special coverage of president trump's state of the union address at 9:00 p.m. eastern time. sonali: now we go to asia with the latest on the coronavirus outbreak. the latest cases have top 20,000. hong kong reported its first death, confirming the second fatality outside mainland china. -- joining us is rishaad salamat. what do we need to know about the latest increase in outbreaks? its 20,600 people now confirmed to have this coronavirus. we've got 139-year-old male with underlying health issues dying here in hong kong. but this whole region is on watch, in essence. macau gambling hub, just about 20 minutes by ferry across there, it is closing its casinos for the next two weeks. it would result, according to many studies, and something like revenuesine in during the biggest earner of the year. macau.s confirmed in the economy reeling because of the hong kong street protests, the trade war, and all of the uncertainties that did throw up. china has suffered nearly all of the fatalities in , and the restince in neighboring provinces. people talking about a 3% growth rate for the first quarter, far from the 6% that had been penciled in. sonali: thank you for joining us. romaine: bp surprising investors with a dividend increase, bucking the trend of what had been a relatively bleak earnings season for big oil. >> 2019 is probably one of the strongest years we have seen in both our oil trading and gas trading in the last decade, and you have seen that come through results, particularly upstream, but also in terms of the downstream. romaine: joining us from london is bloomberg's, reordering. a relatively -- bloomberg's annmar hordern. a relatively good earnings report. what was driving this beat today? annmarie: especially when you look at the other big oil majors reporting, it was a good farewell note for ceo bob dudley. tomorrow, bernard looney will take over officially. did big standouts where the net income profit, beating even high analyst expectations. in october, they warned it was to premature to talk about the dividend, but they did raise it slightly. finally, they are trying to get rid of debt. that is the story for these big oil companies. say they are going to do another $5 billion worth of disposal. all of that together was quite a solid report for bob dudley. as i said, he will be leaving after nearly 10 years. really his entire career was marked by the deepwater horizon crisis. bernard looney will be taking the reins tomorrow. he has a big challenge of showing the public that they can move towards a greener transition, but at the same time being able to deliver back to investors the dividend. that's what they care about. romaine: thank you, bloomberg's annmarie hordern. sonali: alphabet reported fourth quarter revenue that missed analyst estimates. numbers on youtube also disappointed wall street. joining us is matt bloxham, bloomberg intelligence analyst. what do we need to know about alphabets big miss? it was the disclosure they gave that analysts have been at muchng for on how they generate from youtube and cloud services, and that was a bit of a mixed bag. youtube generated about $15 billion in revenue in 2019. we don't quite know where analysts were, but there's a clear sense that that was a bit light of expectations. the company was pointing to optimism about their ability to continue to grow that in 2020. cloud services was better received, about $10 billion , which i thinke was encouraging for analysts. that business is looking to take share from the likes of microsoft. of amazon'sbout 1/4 business, so they may need to continue to make investment to gain share. it sets up 2020 quite interestingly for a much bigger round of competition between amazon and google, with amazon going into the core advertising business of google whilst google goes into their cloud services business. i think it is going to be tougher for both of these companies in the market over the next 12 months. sonali: thank you, matt bloxham of bloomberg intelligence. romaine: we end on disney coming out with earnings after the bell later tonight. paul sweeney is the cohost of "bloomberg surveillance" on bloomberg radio and has the key things to watch. for: i think the big issue investors, they are going to focus on the streaming business for the walt disney company. disney is really pivoting from the traditional media model relying upon the cable-television bundle to distribute its programming to streaming. we are talking about disney+, espn+, hulu. those will be the future for the walt disney company. when will these streaming business actually turn a profit? the company has disclosed it is not going to be for another three or four years. investor focus will be on profitability of that business and the subscriber growth. also, investors are going to be focusing on the coronavirus and the impact that is h aving on the theme parks in shanghai and hong kong. we know they have been never could fully impacted -- they have been negatively impacted. finally, the film slate. they've had a great run of movies in theaters. this quarter they had "frozen ii," "the rise of skywalker." what does it look like going forward for the film business that has been such a growth driver? romaine: our thanks there to bloomberg's paul sweeney. sonali: we are trying to figure out how and why tesla has done it. shares have tripled in a little more than three months. the market cap is now about 50 billion more than that of volkswagen. still, tesla's model three is one of the top cars in europe, and even skeptics are giving up the notion that anyone can top tesla anytime soon when it comes to electric car technology. and while, it's been -- meanwhile, it's been a great year for elon musk. according to the bloomberg billionaire index, he's now worth $41 billion. coming up, more on your morning trade and analysis on the markets in today's first take. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ romaine: now for the bloomberg first take, where we give you the news and get the trade and analysis of the markets. joining us is vincent cignarella, voice of the bloomberg macro squat on your terminal -- micro squawk on your terminal, and joining us is stuart kaiser, ubs head of equity derivatives research. we've seen the fed inject a lot of liquidity into the system. crisis that china can manage right now from an economic perspective? stuart: they are doing their best. there's a worry that china is now a bigger part of the economy 2003, when sars was a big risk. china has basically doubled their share of trade, global tourism, etc. it's compared to 2003. equities are more expensive now. that has been the most common playbook people are following, but there are important differences. i think people are just looking at the trend in new cases or new illnesses announced. you've got these websites that are basically real-time showing it. people are following very closely. china is doing every thing that can for both the health and a monetary policy perspective to support the markets, but it is a major issue. it is not going to go away in the immediate term. now?i: what happens or stay away dip for a while? stuart: we are still recommending being structurally long chinese equities. the million-dollar question, perhaps quite literally. we are still positive on a structural perspective, but definitely uncertainties around that. our economists took down their growth forecasts in china. our global growth number for the first quarter went to less than 1%, so it is a major impact on the short-term growth story. hopefully, if everything gets resolved, it will be temporary, and you want to own chinese equities in the long run. romaine: if you look at the price action in the markets in asia, a lot of people seem to be shrugging this off, or at least not panicking. vincent: i think markets are starting to take this in stride. selloff esther day -- we saw selloff yesterday the took the dow down. you see all the equity futures up 1%. stuart said it perfectly. do you buy now or later? in the long run, asia is probably the best growth sector over the next couple of years as far as global growth is concerned. regionalchina, but the economic cooperative package that china signed with some 14 other nations, between 30% to 40% of global gdp. it is definitely going to be the place to be. it is going to be good for markets in latam that export raw product, and australia as well. but in the short-term, all global growth is going to go down, and asia is going to suffer the most in the near term. be moreowth is going to adversely impacted, and markets are going to be more adversely impacted. sonali: we had big news yesterday about the oil demand shock. how is that going to feed into commodity markets? stuart: commodity markets have already been the most negatively impacted, whether industrial metals or the price of oil. we have opec, not. there's -- we have opec coming up. there's some discussion that saudi may try to cut production. there are some real structural issues with oil over the long-term. people are short or underweight anyway, so people are looking for excuse to get shorter. we have been supporters of selling upside on oil through the options market. that has largely played out over the last couple of weeks. it is a major issue, but if you look at where our forecasts have changed the most in china, it is much more on the consumption side. a lot of the industrial part of the economy would have been shut down for lunar new year anyway, but the longer you keep people in homes, you are really impacting consumption more directly. romaine: with regards to that, our people sort of reading what is going on with the coronavirus as a supply shock or a demand shock, or both? vincent: i think it's both. you have the demand shock which then makes the supply shock a result. you have oversupply because of lack of demand. do as stuart is saying, we have this consumption issue, but at the same time, in the industrial sector you are looking at a delay. so the second quarter could be a really robust quarter for asia, and china in particular, if this becomes more and more under control. you put it in perspective. it is no small shock when there are 20,000 people infected with coronavirus. diedyear, 600,000 people of the flu worldwide. in context, it is not as big a hit as markets are making it sound. sonali: we were talking about demand shocks, but are there any specific supply-side chocks? -- supply-side shocks? stuart: when opec meets, we will see if they try to do something on the supply side. the biggest supply shock over the last decade is really fracking and shale. that still exists, and that has been one of the structural challenges in addition to esg concerns facing the oil industry. we will see. saudi is generally viewed as the swing producer. what they say is generally going to be what determines that. romaine: earnings season is here. has it been everything you hoped and dreamed for? vincent: i think it has been modest. we will see what disney does today. it's been hot and cold each sector. earnings are definitely going to be the key. the market is reacting positively to what china has done from a central standpoint, throwing the kitchen sink at the virus and at their economy. but at some point, you can't just keep looking at central banks. you have to make money. it has to be earnings. sonali: vincent cignarella, thank you for joining us. stuart kaiser of ubs investment bank stays with us. you can find all of the charts we just used and more by running gtv on your terminal. centcan browse re features and save the charts. gtv . this is bloomberg. ♪ viviana: you are watching "bloomberg daybreak." foregin with a farewell bpce a bob dudley. the giant bucking the industry trend by posting quarterly profit that beat estimates, also raising its dividend. the company is planning $5 billion more in asset sales. bp says it received a nice bump from its in-house energy trading unit. shares of alphabet are falling. google reporting quarterly avenue that missed estimates. search advertising growth slowing down, plus sales numbers on youtube disappointed. to stem the spread of the coronavirus, macau taking new steps. almost four dozen casinos will be shut down for 15 days. so we'll movie theaters and some bars. a casino worker was confirmed to be a new virus patient. that is your bloomberg business flash. romaine: what's going on in macau? kind of a big deal here. we are seeing a lot of hong kong shares of the companies with the most exposure to macau moving wynn, galaxy .ntertainment, mgm they are picking this from february 15 and go 15 days forward from that. you're talking about a potential 15% revenue loss for gaming. gamingy is this a huge hub, but just as a destination for vacation. a lot of people go there and don't necessarily gamble. sonali: not to mention the impact overall. are big global brands. how much does this macau shut down impact their overall waiver new -- overall revenue? romaine: coming up, the iowa caucus, we don't know who the winner is. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ romaine: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak." i'm romaine bostick, in for alix steel today, who is on assignment. the markets are on the decidedly risk on mode. we started out in china as a down day, but quickly rebounded to finish higher. s&p futures, dow jones futures, and nasdaq futures all above 1%. the sentiment also relatively positive. the day, 600 higher on and the csi 300 up as well. ofling returning is a lot people unwind haven bids to yuan . that appeared to satiate investors for now. we are seeing quite a bit of rebound in the commodity space. barrel.ude, $51 a copper, something you don't see everyday, and up move to .6% on the day. if you want to look -- see every 2.6% on theove, day. at $878. some analysts are raising their estimates to $1000 a share. just a few months ago, this was trading just below $300. have analysts believing there will be life on mars. [laughter] romaine: in iowa, they are still awaiting the results of the democratic caucus. glitches have delayed the results, but did you know there was another caucus, a republican one? president trump easily won the republican caucus in that state, where he faced only token opposition. bloomberg spoke to donald trump, jr. he had some comments about former vice president joe biden and what he needed to achieve in that state. butt's where it all starts, it's a dry run for the general. we went to get our teams going. but we want to show the people who took a chance on us in 2016. it was a lot different than. my father was making promises like every other politician. most of those people probably got used to know whenever delivering on those promises. now it is different. a big part of being here is also saying thank you to those people who took a chance on us, and we are going to need them again in the general. kevin: you talk about the policies. usmca is big here. in terms of the economic message from that perspective, how important is trade policy on that front? >> i think it's huge. my father came here and said he was going to do those things. remember for years ago, you can't renegotiate nafta. every economist, democrat, frankly, every republican, no way you are going to be able to do anything about it, and he did , as democrats are pushing the russia hoax. he signed a trade deal with china and other things. you can't get that done. guess what? he used economic tactics to force them to the table, and he gets another thing done as the democrats are pushing the articles of impeachment. that's the difference between the democrats, who are doing nothing, and trump, who is getting things done. delivering on promises despite zero assistance and unprecedented incoming. kevin: there was it, credit presidential candidate -- there was a democratic presence will candidate who is a populist, who your father ran as a populist. bernie sanders, lisbeth warren. what do you say to them -- elizabeth warren. what do you say to them? >> i guess they will say that, but i don't know how you are a populace and you don't go for trade deals that are a huge leap forward. the difference i