fourth quarter because of the way the tax cuts worked. people got to deduct at a higher rate so there was a big sale on equipment in the fourth quarter and then the first and second that koshlted then it started to level off which is how our models work. so this is a point at my lecture of the american economic association, the investment moouchlts is what our models predict and that's why last year i said gdp growth would be 3.1%. it looks like that will be almost exactly right and the same model says 3% this year. >> before you go, two final things. on trade the president tweeted on monday that made people worried that the trade negotiations with china aren't going well. he said stop playing around. are you confident that the u.s. and china can reach a solid trade agreement by the march 1 deadline? >> yes. i am confident that it can happen. that the talks are moving forward. there is progress to be made but it's a strong situation and i