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u.s. equity futures point to go a positive start here at home as "squawk box" begins right now. >> good mortgage. welcome back to "squawk box" he here on cnbc. i'm michelle caruso cabrera sitting in with joe kernen and steve liesman. there is serious work at hand. we have a deluge of economic data set to hit the tape this morning. >> that's a lot. >> durable goods, personal income and spending, weekly jobless claims, consumer sentiment, new home sales and oil inventory. you have to be tuned in two hours from now to see all of this stuff. personal income seen ticking higher by .1%. spending seen rising -- >> look at all of that data. >> .6%. are you in data heaven? >> there are days when the forces of the universe come together for me. and this is one of them. i mean, like the day before christmas, same sort of idea where they put out all the data early than they otherwise would. and it's just hard to sit in the seat right now. >> just thinking about all this data .how many we're going to know about the u.s. economy once all of this is done. >> the forecast is for anything to move more than .1% or .5% of anything. >> but that is significant, joe, right? >> is durable goods the most significant one? >> jobless. jobless claims. >> that's today, too? >> i'd like to see it come down below the 498,000. get closes to that 450 range. >> a day earlier. >> forecasters say new applications for unemployment benefits likely drop by 10,000 to 495,000. potentially below 500,000. >> how long that been snl. >> since below 100,000. >> i don't know that. >> you have to know that. >> i will know that. just keep talking amongst yourself. >> then at 10:30 a.m., the dow jones calls for october new home sales to fall by 1% from 402,000 in september. worth note b, thompson reuters poll forecast a 2% increase in sales. steve. >> we are watching oil prices this morning. traders waiting for the energy department's weekly inventory report. it's expected to show supplies of crude and gasoline are growing all prices, down about 7% reaching their high this year of $82 a barrel last month. joe. >> steve, do you follow short interest? >> yes. >> it's been rising in the united states and equities have risen slightly this month. the short interest, the data signaling some investors could hit trouble as the year wind down. they've been looking for this to hit some trouble since mid march. the nyse reports that shoe short interest rose 2.3% to about $13.2 billion shares as of november 13th. short interest was equal to about 3.5% for the total outstanding shares. for the nasdaq short interest, up 2.6%. year-to-date, short sellers have a negative return of 0%. that puts 20089 to be on track for one of the worst years ever. after we have mentioned all these things, just remember, many times the shorts need to be covered. so it doesn't necessarily portend bad things for the market all the time. it could portend a short squeeze. >> isn't that the argument that nearly every rally begins with a short covering rally, of course. >> right. that's why i'm not sure to see how short interest -- >> that could be a good thing. >> exactly. >> this was a new piece of data that was going to help us understand it. after a while -- >> who knows how useful it is. and there's so many different shorting from the box and hedging and so many different strategies, you don't know whether -- what really someone is doing when they make a bet like this. >> and then when the market knows about the a piece of data, it's useful not predicting what the market is going to do diminishes. >> and then when you can short ten times the market that exists, that makes it, as well. >> isn't that illegal? >> theoretically illegal, but is it in force? >> no. let's check on the markets so far this morning. futures right now are suggesting a positive open. right now the dow jones industrial average would open higher by -- as soon as they roll it. 10 points. na nasdaq would open roughly i by 6 or 7. we have a seven-year option coming up later this week as the government try toes borrow more money at 3.31%. the dollar index printed a new 15-month low earlier today, around 74. versus the end of the year on the pound. weaker across the board. now every dollar, the euro will cost you $1.50 on the nose here. and with gold, this is the eighth day in a row for a gold record. $1,177 per owns, a gain of more than $11. let's go to the overseas market in london where louisa bojesen has the latest out of europe. hey, louisa. >> hey, guys. i can tell you our european are higher across the board. we were being called up a little today. it seems, though, we're still highly motivated by what's going on with the dollar. the dollar is higher and persisting today. that caused persistence into the market. we've got quite a bit of interest in the automobile sector today with another gm unit facing the wall, the saab unit, which is a loss-making unit because the carmaker, they're pulling out of the deal now so saab needs to find a buyer for this particular unit. we're hearing that particularly there may be some asian interest in the unit, although eats not known yet and we hear more about gm's plans for opel today, they're detailing plans after that huge u-turn to keep that itself itself. the lsc posting a significant drop in their first half of pretax profits, a drop open 37%. their rival is heating up in business. cost control being a top priority for the london stock exchange group, which of course had all these possibilities of merging here, what, two years ago, a year and a half ago, two years ago. the share price was at a multi year highs at the time. they chose to walk away from the potential deals and now instead they find themselves facing a difficult time. deutsche bores sa had numbers out a short time ago. compass, which is one of the world's biggest catering groups, they supply a whole bunch of very large companies among others. i think the u.s. army or some certain units, at least, in north america. they're setting their sights on higher margins and fairing relatively well. although what we are hearing from them are a number of companies that support these days is that they're very cautious due to the lack of transparency in their key markets. i just lost my hearing ball, it got pulled out from the floor by some snake down there. so i'll send it back to you. >> louisa, that does happen. the cords are lock and sometimes the wheel on your chair will do that. the dollar is the key driver of the overall markets right now. we're joined by a special guests, he's famous, the world affectionately calls him mr. yen. he's isuki sakabara. he served as japan's vice finance minister for international affairs and we welcome you. and it is a long way off where we're talking to you, so there's a delay. but sir, i guess let's start with what we've seen with the dollar versus many currencies, but what has been the most significant move and do you expect these moves to continue? >> well, as we get to the dollar/yen, it is below the level of 1.88. between $1.88 and 1.50, but today it has broken that. it is possible that the dollar/yen would approach 85 quickly. and i wouldn't rule out the possibility that dollar/yen would, you know, come close to 80, as well. so this is a critical day. it was broken the 88. >> i've heard that that is not necessarily a surprise and not necessarily anything to cause a great deal of concern, at least in this country. maybe it is causing more concern in japan in terms of the export pictures. >> that's right. yeah, japanese equity has been coming down. the nikkei has broken the critical level, what, 10,000. it is now approaching 9,000. with the appreciate of yen towards 85 and even possibly 80, the nikkei could come down farther. so the japanese economy is likely to get boo the double dip recession. early next year, maybe between january and march or april, you know, june of next year. so this is a very critical situation for the japanese economy. >> sir, it's michelle here. in a recent speech, federal reserve chair ben bernanke said that the reason the dollar was falling was simply unwinding the huge rally that happened during the crisis but that was a key part of the reason. is that why you think the dollar is falling? what are the reasons why we're seeing this decline? >> yeah, i think so. i mean, this is the deleveraging of accumulation of the dollar in their bubble period. this dollar weakness i anticipate is going to continue for some time to come. >> do you believe that governments around the world, particularly the u.s. government, should intervene at this point to stop the dollar's decline? >> well, i don't think tim geithner would be inclined to intervene at this moment. maybe if dollar/yen breaks 85, japanese government may be tempted to intervene to support the dollar. but i don't know what would be the reaction of tim geithner by that intervention from the japanese authorities. >> if i can just ask the question, what do you think they will do, do you believe they should come in and support the dollar particularly when it comes to the dollar/euro? >> well, i don't know. my thought is that maybe u.s., that tim geithner will somewhat gradual decline of u.s. dollar. so sort of, you know, collect the enormous imbalances in trade. so i don't think tim geithner is unhappy at this moment. if the dollar plummets, that's a different story. but it's a gradual decline of the u.s. dollar. i think tim is quite happy with that. i don't know. you have to ask him, but that's my philosophy. >> we're going to get a chance to ask him, i think. >> should he be happy about the decline in the dollar? there's a lot of controversy here in the united states that they shouldn't be happy about the dollar, they should be fighting to support it. >> if it's a gradual decline, it should help your ex ports. that will really rebalance the world in a trade situation. if the dollar gradually declines and renminbi depreciates somewhat, that would be a desirable situation for both the u.s. and china. >> sir, you seem to feel, from what i've read, that deflation is a problem at this point globally. it's a worldwide trend. how does that explain the move in gold and the notion that the reason we have this dollar weakness is because of the printing presses running full time here in the u.s. is that because you're so phobic in japan now about inflation or deflation or is that the the biggest problem? >> well, this deflation or this inflation is not a monetary phenomenon. it is a result of the globalization and the deflation is actually happening in this country in japan. this is going to continue for some time. and even for the u.s. and europe, disinflation is taking place. and at least for some time to come, there is no prospect for inflation. from monetary side, people may wonder why inflation is not taking place. but, you know, it's disinflation because of the because of the globalization. those countries like china and india are affecting us. >> how critical is it for china to allow the yuan to appreciate against the dollar? >> i think basically -- to the u.s. dollar. i think chinese yuan should appreciate substantially. you know, with look at what happens to the japanese yen during the course of the last 20, 30 years. it has appreciated, you know, in a very dramatic way. and chinese yuan, if you think in terms of the next five to ten years has appreciated in a very dramatic way. so the chinese authorities should peg their currency vis-a-vis the dollar. >> if they did that, what would the yuan be at versus the dollar? >> well, i don't know, but within the next two or three months, appreciation is quite possible, i think. >> that would help trading partners over there, but would that change china's propensity to buy our paper? >> well, you know, chinese economy is growing at 9% and it is going to continue. and yuan would, you know, one way or the other would continue to appreciate. look at what has happened to the japanese economy in the '70s or '80s. it has appreciated as high at $1.80. so this is going to happen in the chinese yuan in the medium to long run. so, you know, the question is when they will unpeg their currency vis-a-vis the dollar. as a matter of fact, chinese yuan has become much cheaper, you know, vis-a-vis the other asian currencies. that should not be the case. >> we appreciate your time this morning. it's not morning over there, but today we appreciate it. i wish you a happy thanksgiving, but i know there's probably no thanksgiving this morning, either. >> i appreciate how you handled his name. that was really professional. >> a lot of times, it's like skiing down and tun mogul is coming so you let the skis absorb the -- >> very professional. >> no thanksgiving in japan. you knew that, right? >> i figured that. >> the pilgrims came thousands of years -- that doesn't mean you can't wish someone a happy thanksgiving, right? >> no. absolutely. >> do you think only people, ethnic groups who had pilgrims or members or representatives in the original pilgrims should celebrate thanksgiving? >> i haven't even considered that. >> should the native indians celebrate thanksgiving? >> now you really -- i don't kn know. what do you think? do you like columbus? did you celebrate columbus day? >> did you read about how there was a republican thanksgiving and a democratic thanksgiving for several years because they tried to move the dates around? even thanksgiving became politic sized. >> you could make so many jokes about that, what a republican thanksgiving looks like versus what the democratic thanksgiving looks like. how about the independents? write down what the independents would feel. you write that and i'll write -- >> here the democrats would go over and baervegly take turkey from their neighbors. >> the biggest and best turkeys. >> right. >> and split it exactly evenly so that each person got a morsel apiece. >> and the republican thanksgiving would be to feed those the most, give the biggest plates to those who were the most productive that year and to starve those who weren't productive because you need more -- >> increase supply dramatically so that way they would have -- >> the republicans would have much more to split up. you have this teenie piece of pumpkin pie. you could cut it exactly evenly, but you would even get -- because the pie would shrink so much. >> because they would have overregulated turkey production and pumpkin production. >> you would have messed that up somehow, go ahead. >> we would have invited a lot of people. >> everybody would be there. everybody would be there. >> there would be everybody at the republican -- everybody is welcome at the republican -- >> but nobody would ever come. did you ever notice that? >> that's because the social -- >> coming up, a holt day social edition task force. later, is cooking a turkey in your future? check in with the butterball hot line. we're going to give them a call. still ahead, if you can't take the heat, stay out of the "squawk box" kitchen. i am putting it stuffing in the bird. ♪ (announcer) they've been tested, built and driven like no other. and now they're being offered like no other. come to the winter event and get an exceptional offer on the mercedes-benz of your dreams. it's our way of showing a little holiday spirit. but hurry - the offer ends soon. let's tell you how the markets are shaping up, joining us now, anthony chan and subodh ka march. thank you for joining us. steve liesman is beside him at the economic bev very that we are going to get. what do you think is going to be the most important to trading today? >> i think, michelle, everybody will be talking about that initial unemployment claim because everybody will be holding their breath to see when employment is going to turn positive. >> do we get less than 500,000 today? >> i think there is always that possibility of less than 500,000. but you can't hold your breath because if you look back historically at all the business cycles going back to 1967, that magical numbers varies. >> you're hedging. >> i'm not hedging at all. if you go back to 2001, you saw that number coming in at 396,000 before you had a positive print in payrolls. you go back to 1980, that number had to hit 525,000 before you got into a positive print. but if you go back to 1970 witness stand in the '70s, you saw that number having to go down below $300. >> i get all that, subodh, if we get a print below 500,000, does that move the markets? >> i think it will increase confidence, but the thing, michelle, to look at is would you look at previous recessions, companies have cut inventories, have cut costs. if they have to cut prices again on black friday, i think that will make the whole corporate community cautious. so this number plus black friday will be very important. >> black friday. >> anthony, i want to ask you about the fed minutes yesterday. when i look out at their inflation forecast, 2009 to 2012, that to me explains the remarks by federal reserve officials about why they're going to be so low for so long. they don't see themselves getting back to their 2% target for that would that be, almost three years. doesn't that suggest to you that we're going to be low for some time? >> absolutely. the inflation numbers are not a threat at this juncture. the reason to that, next year, we'll be lucky if we fall below 10% next year. and then on top of that, capacity utilization is at very low levels. we know that the federal reserve considers capacity to be in the 83% to 85% range before inflation becomes a problem. get what? we're into 70% in the low '70s. there's a huge negative output gap suggesting that inflation is not going to away problem for quite some time. and so right now, the primary consideration of the central bank is to get this economy growing again. >> subodh, what did you make xhed of those comments that they're worried about bubbles being created from low interest rates. is it suggested that they might move earlier than you thought? >> well, no. >> subodh. >> yes, i think that that is very important statement because i know the fed feeds to look at the economy. but i think they're getting worried that the health of the market is being affected, especially by the dollar and low interest rates and the talk about the bubble. so i was hearing your comments from japan earlier. my red line in the sand is 150 against the euro. so i think the fed is more concerned than they're letting on about these low interest rates than the dollar. >> we're there today at 150. >> that's why i think today is a very important day. if i'm right, the market has been looking at a weak dollar as a good event, but i think above 150, it could easily turn out to be a bad event. >> subodh, with all 06 this uncertainty, what are you doing? are we getting the santa claus rally? >> i think they'll go sideways at best, maybe pull back a little bit, michelle. it's a very interesting market because late spring/early summer, the market went to 900 on the s&p 500 and refused to pull back. now we're around 1100, it's having trouble getting any momentum upwards, even though people are saying, you know, it's money, it's driving the market, etcetera, but the market is having trouble. i think we're looking more at a sideways market into yooen year-end. >> we're done. >> oh, we're done. thank you, anthony, subodh, good to see you this morning. coming up, we have this morning's top stories plus the pictures from the pits and over the hills and through the woods to grandmother's house. millions of americans are traveling today by plane, train and automobile. we'll get the inside scoop of the industry and what it tells you about the state of the u.s. economy when "squawk box" comes back. i've been growing algae for 35 years. most people try to get rid of algae, and we're trying to grow it. the algae are very beauti