Transcripts For MSNBC MSNBC Live 20110815 : vimarsana.com

rick perry a top tier candidate. he s drawn a line in the sand in south carolina, going after iowa with the three-day tour there. what does a perry campaign mean immediately for bachmann and romney? obviously, it s shaken up this race and pretty tremendous way. he s instantly a front-runner, if not the front-runner once the polls come out. he can clearly compete in south carolina, make a big play in eye. not clear he can sell his brand of conservatism in northern states in places linew hampshir. he s going to raise a ton of money. people sometimes forget how much of the big republican donor base comes to texas. one of the secrets to bush s success, one of the reasons outside groups affiliated with karl rove do so well. especially from let s talk about the fundraising that you brought up. perry getting into the race. will that mean that donors that he will take, will those donors have to come from candidates in the race already in. no, there s been a bunch of big bundlers, big donors that have not affiliated with any candidate to date. i think he can draw from them. there s a base of texas donors he can draw from them. there are other conservatives who want to get into the game who have not aligned themselves with anybody yet. there s enough money and he has an elaborate fund-raising plan. i don t think money s the big issue for governor perry. if you look at the different candidates and how he handled their first five or ten days getting into the race he probably did more impressively than anybody else. his speeches were sharp and on point where he needed be in the race. he was able to upstage bachmann and others in iowa over the weekend. as a politician, he s develop skilled. it remains to be seen, a, whether he can sell himself in northern states and how much there is there. he s a good campaigner but substantively is he ready for the gruel and grind of a campaign. you mentioned michele bachmann, she was on meet the press yesterday. take a listen to what she said and talk about it on the other side. take a listen. the markets need to see a signal. what s going to come out of washington? the only signal they ve seen so far is that it s going to mean more spending, spending money that we don t have and more taxing. there s candidate bachmann talking about the economy. is that going to be her strong suit? is she going to be able to position herself as someone who has credibility on fiscal issues or is she going to stay in her wheelhouse, the social issues? she darn well better be able to do that if she wants to emerge as a nominee at some point. the economy s the only issue that matters this this campaign and i think it s the only issue that will matter come 2012. right now her sweet spot is evangelical christians, clearly in iowa she s able to get the base fired up behind her. and the big question with michele bachmann is, again, the same thing with pairry, how much there is there? once you get them out of a controlled environment, they re both great performers, very strong on stage, but once they re in, improvizationle settings how good are they in? how much depth and breadth do they have went it comes to policy? it s a great unknown. there s a great piece this morning looking at contrasting styles of bachmann and perry in eye. just yesterday, she lives in a bubble, she has a security team, very controlled, goes in, comes out, knows exactly what she s going to say. she s very, very good in that setting. that can t carry you that far especially in places like iowa, you have to get in there, mix it up, do town halls, you have to be able to talk about different issues, ones that aren t in your comfort zone and that s where she has to prove herself. they re both abled politicians. can they take it to the next level? with so many social conservatives battling in iowa, bachmann, perry, rick santorum, ron paul, with pawlenty out, might we see romney reconsider iowa and make a stronger push in the hawkeye state? i think the campaign clearly is trying to debate that right now. it s not his it s not his safe place. new hampshire is his safe place. also getting into places like michigan and florida, down the road are his safer places. so i don t see a big push to recalibrate the strategy on the romney side. think about romney as a candidate, he, too, has run an impressive campaign and that he s kept his head low, raised a lot of money, picking his spots. there is pressure, you saw a lot of it over the weekend for him to engage more forcefully, one of the big criticisms you hear, he s been so tepid, assuming he ll become the general election nominee for the republican party and you can t assume that. and he has to be quite scared by perry. the presence that he has on stage, the excitement that he s creating with conservatives. the fact there s a potential that perry could bring together those two wings of the party, the conservative evangelical wing and the economic wing by talking about his record in texas, which again that record, i think, deserves and will get a tremendous amount of scrutiny. but if he can survive that scrutiny, bring those two wings together, politic is not rocket science, a plus b equals victory for republicans and he might be the one to pull it together, maybe. he won t have trouble raising money. jim, thanks so much. have a good day. nbc news, politico, teaming fo for a gop debate from the reagan library september 7th here on msnbc. in the wake of ames, president obama launches a new politicking counteroffensive this week. kicking off a five-city bus tour of minnesota, iowa, and illinois, the trip is attempt to counter a slew of attack business gop hopefuls this weekend. also it s aimed at re-establishing the president s presence in the midwest. but the president is up against a growing anti-incumbent, according to a new gallup poll, president obama s approval rating recently hit a new low. it s at 39%. let s bring in nbc chief white house correspondent, host of the daily rundown, chuck todd, traveling with the president, live in can an falls, minnesota. start with 39%. put that in perspective for us. how bad is that? reporter: it s a psychological barrier. i m hesitant when it comes to the gallup s daily tracking poll because that thing gyrates a lot on a daily basis. bettor look at on a weekly or monthly average. but it cracked 40. the fact is it s the same direction we ve seen a lot of polling numbers. the president has seen them. the only thing that gives them some hope is that congressional republican approval is even worse. and so it s clear this debt ceiling debate, and back and forth, and the inability of congress to do something big but to do this convoluted deal they ended up doing did not cast washington in a good light. and at the end of the day, the president s in charge of washington. the s&p downgrade, throw all of that together, uncertainty, you re starting to see it go down. craig, one other thing to think about with 39%, that means there are people who support the president for re-election who disapprove of his job. this is starting to come away from democrats. let s talk about where you are, cannon falls, minnesota. what do the states and cities that the president will be visiting over the next few days, what do the states and citis all have in common? reporter: midwest, unemployment rate in all of these places actually below the national average. that s not the issue. it s more the geographic part of this trip that matters more than anything. the idea that these guys aren t countering what we re seeing in iowa is kind of laughable. the mid west is the president s base. it was during the primaries. look up and down the mississippi river during the primaries and during the general election and it was the heart of the president s success. but this is a swing area and he s seen his numbers dip here. there s perhaps no more important region in the country than the president s re-election than the midwest. the only thing about this trip that surprises me we re stopping in illinois. the president s home state. this isn t something they have to be worried about. hoy thought we would be starting in illinois, going through iowa, minnesota and ending in wisconsin. my guess is we ll be back. quickly, over the weekend, we saw bachmann emerge in iowa. do we think at this point that we ll see any owe republican get into the fray? reporter: well, i know that there are still some big money people established republicans that are not quite sure that rick perry s the answer at this point. and if he falters early, the calls to chris christie could get that we know he s getting them, we know he picks up the phone and he still says no. and by the way, sarah palin is acting like somebody who would like to at least dip her toe in for a little while longer but the fact of the matter is, craig, time is running out. chuck todd with the president in cannon falls, minnesota, for us on monday. chuck, thank you. reporter: welcome aboard. thank you. appreciate it. thanks for having me. reporter: all right. let s turn to the markets. markets on the rise, erasing most of last week s losses. a shot of the live dow big board. companies announcing more than $19 billion of takeovers, mote notably google s announcement to buy motorola today. sign of a healthy economy, good things to come. you can see up about close to 131 points so far. the indiana state fair is reopening today on a somber note, after a wind storm caused some terrifying damage. it caused a concert stage to collapse there. five people killed, dozens more injured saturday when tons of steel rigging came down crashing down on the crowd. ron mott live in indianapolis for us. what can you tell us about the latest on the investigation there? reporter: hey, craig. good morning it you. you can see the stage behind me, we ll pan up and let you get a better look at scaffolding and rigging that came down saturday during that major windstorm that was forecast to have gusts. unfortunately you re not able to pinpoint where gusts were going to be. they estimate this one that hit here on saturday night between 60 and 70 miles per hour and a lot of folks could not get out of the way. there was a mosh pit for lack of a better term around the stage, vip folks, special guest of the band sugarland assembled on the ground here. they were the ones in the line of fire, if you will, when that stage collapses here saturday night, about 8:50 or so. a lot of questions now about that construction of that rig. it s the same stage use here for fair grounds over and over. a lot of people are beginning to ask, was something missed? was something overlooked? we ll have more about that in a moment. first this morning there was a prayer service to open the day to remember those folks who lost their lives here over the weekend. five people, as you mentioned, who died here in this collapse on saturday night. governor mitch daniels was one of the speakers this morning. he responsed to some questions people are beginning to ask if there s any blame to be assigned. listen. our first instinct is not look for scapegoats and try to find somebody to lay the blame on. later on, at the appropriate time, we try to learn lessons, maybe do little better the next time. reporter: now this is one of the more popular state fairs around the country. still some pretty big musical acts scheduled to perform here this week. janet jackson wednesday, maroon 5, train, and lady antebellum later in the week. officials will make some announcement where those shows will be held. more than likely not held here. eveni engineers have been working here trying to pinpoint what might have caused the rigging to collapse as it did. as we mentions, five people lost their lives, many others injured. quite a within here as the fair resumes, there s definite pall in the zblafr 18 people in the hospital today we understand. thanks. appreciate that. president obama leaving a message on the economy, what will that message be. a. stressing differences between himself and the gop or the pragmatic way, pushing ideas that can pass congress though me may not have much of an economic may not have much of an economic impact.uched. that s why there s brita, to make the water we drink, taste a little more, perfect. reduce lead and other impurities with the advanced filtration system of brita. excuse me? 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[ woman announcing ] new beneful healthy fiesta. another healthful, flavorful beneful. as the president takes to the road to battle a sinking approval rating, white house aides are considering a more aggressive approach to talk about economic issue. the new strategy would highlight differences between president obama s policy and that of congressional republicans. could this approach help the president win back supporters, or is it too little too late? joining me from washington, former chief economist and economic adviser to vice president biden, msnbc contributor jared bernstein. jared, 39%, that s the approval rating right now for the president. an all-time low for him. why has the white house waited so long to consider taking a more combative approach? because they were stuck in a spiral of self-inflicted wounds around debt ceilings, deficit reduction, budget baselines, all of the stuff that people out there, outside of the beltway, really put way down on their list of major concerns. but i think what you re going to start seeing the president doing, you can see it already is a flip. instead of talking about budget deficits and getting to jobs in the second half of the speech, you re going to see that turned around. i think the president is going to begin to articulate a real jobs vision, a real jobs program that may well be followed up by legislation in weeks or months working with congressional democrats. bold ideas like another stimulus package that many economists suggested would help this economy in the short term, ideas like that won t pass the house. so short of a grand idea like that, what can the president even push through? what s politically feasible here? first of all i doubt you re going to see something like a stimulus package, anything that s in the hundreds of billions with tons of moving parts like the recovery act. what i do think you ll see, what i think has a chance of meeting the criteria you correctly laid out, craig, is a renewal of the payroll tax holiday. i think the probability of that is above 50%, even with this congress, maybe renewal of exextends unemployment benefits. unemployment above 9%, we need that. then you get into you can t be sure whether he ll have the legislative oomph to do more. i like an idea featured in the new york times today called fast, fix american schools today. a great national infrastructure. put a ton of construction workers back to work. much beyond that pretty tough. the president could introduce those things but will the house even take up any of the things that you just mentioned? so here s your question, hardball or compromise? i think the president is moving into a hardball territory where if the house refuses to move on that, he s not going to kick back and in budget debate mode say i ll give you this and you give me that. i think he s going to tell america who s standing between them and their economic opportunities. the living standards for them and their families and, frankly, it s the right move if he wants to boost the approval rating. you think we ll see the president become a fighter? i think he s going to fight hard if congress blocks him on the jobs agenda and house republicans almost surely will. jared, thank you so much. a new twist in the search for a missing 3-year-old girl in missouri. a neighbor arrested and charged with murder. police have not found the body. what s going on? we ll talk about that to dr. cornell west, shaping up to be a major thorn in the president s side. could his criticism cost the president key african-american votes in 2012? 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[ whirring and beeping ] [ ding! ] and we give you a discount on both. great! did i mention no hands in the bundler? bundling and saving made easy. now, that s progressive. call or click today. livingsocial, i started getting hooked up with deals all over the place. now i get the star treatment everywhere i go. suprise yourself at livingsocial.com. sign up for free to save at least 50% on the best of your town. is best absorbed in small continuous amounts. only one calcium supplement does that in one daily dose. new citracal slow release. continuously releases calcium plus d for the efficient absorption my body needs. citracal. i m craig melvin. here s what s topping the news now. in the days after the u.s. raid that killed bin laden, pakistan showed china the american helicopter that crashed there. that s according to the financial times. the paper reports that despite explicit requests from the cia not, pakistan allowed chinese military engineers to examine, photograph, even walk away with samples, all taken from bin lad s compound. commandos in the raid unsuccessfully attempted to destroy it. the three siblings captured after a crime spree are expected back in colorado today. lee grace dougherty and her younger brothers are being held on charges of attempted first-degree murder and assault in colorado. the dougherty gang, as known, also wanted in georgia on bank robbery charges and in florida on charges of shooting at a police officer. take a look at this store robbery. caught on camera. as many as three dozen people mobbed a 7-eleven in germantown, maryland. they were smiling and laughing. and they took whatever they could. right off the shelves. walked out without paying there. the owner alerted the police. that s what was happening. authoritieses told them it would be hard to catch everyone. looks like the work of a highly organized flash mob. never mine the attacks from the far right now. president obama s now taking harsh blows from some of his own longtime supporters. among these converts, high-profile figures in the african-american community including dr. cornell west and radio host tavis smiley. they are taking their dissatisfaction to the streets. live from burbank, california, alison samuels, contributor to the daily beast and senior writer for newsweek and writes about it this week s issue. let s start with dr. west here. he has taken to calling the president of the united states names. among them, quote a black mascot of wall street oligarchs. what are they trying to accomplish here? they re trying to bring attention to the poor in this country and how president obama hasn t done as much as he could to actually solve the issues of the poor. i think by using names, it brings media attention to them and what they re saying. that s what they say, at least. national average for unemployment right now in the country over 9%. for blacks, it s nearly 17%. foreclosure rates substantially high for blacks in the country, as well, right now. here s the thing, under previous administrations, haven t blacks always fared disproportionally worse? why a coordinated campaign now? that s the criticism, why now? the poor have always done you know, not too well under the different administrations yet this is the only time they ve taken to getting on a bus and going going across-country to talk to the poor and bring attention to the poor. why now? why this particular president? there s a lot of concerns it s personal issues, pence nal dislikes tavis and dr. west have with the president. others have mentioned the personal dislikes as well. elab elaborate about that. that s one of the cheap criticisms of 0 west and smiley, they re motivated by i don t want to use the phrase personal vendetta, but perhaps a personal vendet vendetta. i think dr. west has spoken a lot about not being invited to the inauguration, not having enough tickets to the inauguration, tavis also had his issues with obama when he was not the president yet, not attending one of his special panels that he had every year talking about the issues and concerns of african-americans. tavis took a lot of heat for that. and dr. west has continued to take heat for the way he s approached the president since elected. there are a lot of personal issues that have overshadowed the real issue which is the poor and african-american unemployment and forechose sures. a lot of that is getting lost with the two men using the personal attacks to get their point across. president obama receives 96% of the black vote back in 2008. is there any chance that this campaign by dr. west and tavis smiley, think chance that this campaign has any effect at all on black support for the president? i think the concern is the closer you get to re-election and the more these guys talk and the more that, you know, people sort of begin to listen or pay attention or pick up on anything these guys are actually saying, there is a concern people will become confused. and not necessarily not vote for president obama but stay home. the political process is in in their favor, what s the point? of course president obama can t afford that. he needs african-american support the next election. thank you so much. appreciate you getting up early out there on the west coast for us. thank you. major shifts in the republican primary landscape. michele bachmann emerges atop the iowa straw poll saturday, tim pawlenty dropped out after a disappointing third sunday. rick perry jumped into the race makinging a big splash in south carolina. three gop heavyweights fanned across three states. jamie, let s start with michele bachmann, carrie with rick perry, and mitt romney in new hampshire. jamie, in ames, iowa, wit bachmann before she leaves for south carolina later today. how are you? i m well. how are you? what s the word on the campaign there today? well, michele bachmann is coming off of a high stakes dinner last flight where she appeared with governor perry and also with rick santorum. there was an interesting dynamic at work, craig, during the dinner. perry, i ll let carrie and dan talk about there is more, perry works the room. i saw him sit with a couple, promise he d be back once he shook hands and returned to the table. michele bachmann was on her bus until the moment before she was called. she came into applause and loud music. they changes the lighting for her. the campaign has hmi lights set up, she gave a speech, and she left. she s going to leave for south carolina now. but people at the event were wondering why she didn t spend a little bit more time with them. jamie, thank you. carrie, good morning. this is a texas governor speaking about jobs last night in waterloo. let s listen and then talk about it on the other side. take a listen. making sure that we d have a candidate that can beat barack obama in november is the most important thing that we do and it s got to be somebody that understands and knows and has had job creation experience in the background. new york times columnist, paul krugman, calling the texas miracle more of a myth. economic record facing more scrutiny this morning. what, if anything, are they saying about it there? yell, this one thing that rick perry is going to be confronting now that he s officially in the race and being vetted by a national media. he wants to campaign on beating the jobs governor, during his announcement introduced as america s jobs governor. although texas has been responsible for almost 40% of new jobs since the recession, a lot of those are either minimum wage or governor public sector jobs. and that s a critique you can expect for him to get from some of his rivals. he addressed that this morning. he talked to reporters before he came to the iowa state fair where he s right now. but before he left on his campaign bus he took a couple of questions from reporters and asks about the texas miracle. his response was, some of them are minimum wage jobs but any job is better than the obama jobs which are hurting the economy. we heard jamie describe the dynamic, or perhaps lack thereof between bachmann and your candidate last night. how would you characterize, in just a few words, how would you characterize rick perry s performance in iowa with prospective voter there s? well, governor perry and michele bachmann did have very different styles in the way they interacted with audience last night. perry shows up very early, worked the room, he took a couple of questions from reporters as he was walking around the room. he stayed for the event but did not take questions afterwards. michele bachmann in contrast, showed up, afterwards she did not speak to perry. they did not shake hands or interact in any way. she showed up and afterwards did a formal media availability with reporters afterwards but did not work the room in the same way that perry did. he was really brought retal policy and games into the room. the response from the voters that nbc spoke to, the people in that room reacted positively to perry s style. thanks so much. appreciate your report. let s go to geret with mitt romney in new hampshire. i want to play a clip from romney s ad hitting president obama. take a listen to this. the last election i voted for barack obama and i just feel like i can t. why doesn t he stay in washington and do something about jobs instead of coming here and talking about it? i d like him to figure out how to jump start the economy. there s no jobs to speak of. people are on unemployment. when we can t find summer jobs it s frustrating. a new ad released today. will we hear romney keeping his focus on the president, other than the other candidates? i think you will, craig. we ve been seeing this for the last couple of weeks in the romney campaign. every timing the president hits the road for anything resembling a campaign appearance the romney campaign releases a video going after him for what he s doing. romney was speaking to a group of factory workers and made the point they felt like the president was concerned about protecting his own job than creating jobs for the american people. this is something that they re going to tonight focus on. they want to punch up, they want to be seen as the alternative to president obama rather than engaged with the other folks in the field. jared, thanks. appreciate that as well. let s take a look right now. president obama touching down at the minneapolis st. paul airport. from here he ll travel to cannon falls kick off the three-day trip throughout the midwest we ve been telling you. the president landing with his approval rating at 39%, the lowest of his presidency so far. his first event, little more than an hour from now, a town hall about jobs and the economy. he ll be talking with local residents. msnbc, of course, will carry that live when it happens. president obama now in minneapolis, minnesota. update you on a story we ve been following here out of pakistan where police continue to investigate the kidnapping of an american contractor. warren winestein taken at gun point by a gang of armed men who broke into his house on saturday. no word of a ransom demand and as far as motive, authorities are stumped. nbc s ian williams as more outside the winestein compound. reporter: good morning to you. it s now been two days since warren winestein was kidnap trds house behind me and the police have no idea why or who might have taken him. the initial investigation focuses on a possible inside job. the driver and security gars are in custody. the fbi has been given access to the men. he also interrogated jointly the suspects. reporter: working very closely? yes, we are working closely. we are going to exchange the information. reporter: the police say surveillance cameras like the one above the gate behind me were not working. in fact, when we gained access to the front yard of the house earlier today, we found that the cable to that camera had been cleanly cut. and the police chief told me they found evidence of a struggle. there were bloodstains, they picked out for the evidence. reporter: wine sfestein an international development expert due to return to the u.s. today. he spent seven years in pakistan. yet his neighbors here say they barely knew him. police won t speculate if the assailants were part of a kidnap for ransom military gang or a militant outfit which would be more serious. they are taking the investigation extremely seriously. we are trying our best. this is a challenging case for us. very important. we are concerned about it. we are sure that we ll rise to the occasion. reporter: the abduction serving as a stark reminder that this is a dangerous time for americans in pakistan. ian williams, nbc news, lahore, pakistan. back here, officials fearing the worst in the case of a maryland woman missing in aruba as the fbi searches the home of the man suspect in the disappearance. we ll talk to robin gardner s boyfriend.c cap a helps y efends against occasional constipation, diarrhea, gas and bloating. with three strains of good bacteria to help balance your colon. you had me at probiotic. [ female announcer ] phillips colon health. how d you learn to do that? what d you use? every project we finish comes with a story built-in. it s how our rough ideas become you did that yourself? so when we can save more on the projects that let us fix, make, and do more. that just makes the stories even better. more saving. more doing. that s the power of the home depot. add some style to your sink, with this moen banbury faucet for the new lower price of $79. i like dat, all right [ male announcer ] mio. a revolutionary water enhancer. add a little.or a lot. for a drink that s just the way you like it. make it yours. make it mio. ask me. if you think even the best bed can only lie there. ask me what it s like. when my tempur-pedic moves. .talk to someone who owns an adjustable version of the most highly recommended bed in america. ask me about my tempur advanced ergo. ask me about having all the right moves. these are real tempur-advanced ergo owners! find one for yourself. check out twitter. try your friends on facebook. see what they have to say.unedited. it goes up. ask me what it s like to get a massage -any time you want. .it goes down. ergo.nomics. ergo.nomics. tempur-pedic brand owners are more satisfied than owners of any traditional mattress brand. (in chinese) ask me why i never want to leave my ergo. ask me why i m glad i didn t wait till i was too old to enjoy this. start asking real owners. ask me how to make your first move. find out more about the tempur advanced ergo system! call the number on your screen for your free dvd and information kit. to find an authorized dealer near you, visit tempurpedic.com. tempur-pedic. the most highly recommended bed in america. police searching for an american woman missing in aruba fear she may be dead. family and friends say robyn gardner last seen who weeks ago, traveling with a businessman, gary giordano, police say he has a history of violence against women. giordano is in custody. prosecutors in aruba are asking the judge to keep him locked up there. joining me now, richard forester, robyn gardner s boyfriend. i know this, imagine this case must be very difficult for you to follow. when and how did you first learn your girlfriend was missing? well, i ve gone through this several times before. i was informed of it on friday, a little bit over a week ago, from this past friday. what was she doing in aruba with this guy? again, you know, i ve gone through this over and over. i can t speculate on that. that s something for her and i when, you know, hopefully she returns, for her and i to discuss personally. but do you know gary giordano? no. do you you don t know anything about the relationship between he and your girlfriend? as far as i know, they were friends. tell me about robyn gardner, what kind of woman is she? outgoing, very active, wonderful, loving heart, very stubborn, very trusting. lights up a room. she s got a beautiful smile. i m sure everybody s seen by the many pictures out there. she brings joy to everybody. everybody wants to be close to her and be friends with her. did you know what she was going to be taking a trip? did she tell you that she was going away for a few days? yes. did she tell you she was going to aruba for a few days? that s what i learned, yes. when she told you that, did you warn her at all about heading there? did you warn her at all? any warnings. no, no, of course not. she s an adult. she s free to make her own decisions. i don t blame aruba for anything like this. this happens all over the world. you know, i don t i think that it has nothing to do with aruba. i think, you know, it s just a complete coincidence. no, i wouldn t, you know, it s like warning somebody not to go to, you know, here, come here to washington, d.c. i mean, things happen here, too. i want to get your take on gary your take on giordano. i m sure you read the newspaper reports. what s your impression? my impression from what i hear and what i read, that is man definitely certainly has some, some sort of inner demons and he s got some issues and has had some issues all through his past. my real point for coming out again, is that you know, i have to give a lot of credit all the credit for this media attention to the natalie holloway resource center. i m not trying to give a plug or anything. but they ve been amazing for me in helping me get this word out. there s a hotline that is set up by them specifically for rowyn. we ve got that phone number on the screen as you re speaking. that s great. 407-237-2295. please, anybody, i know somebody has to have seen something or no something who was either there or maybe they know something more about mr. giordona. whatever it is, please use that number. it s anonymous and goes to the natalie holloway resource center which has been amazing in helping me through this. richard, good luck to you. please keep us posted. thank you so much. turning to politics. lots of attention on that straw poll in iowa this weekend. how much does it matter when it comes to the 2012 elections? the history of straw polls and political victories. that s next on today s flip that s next on today s flip side. there s brita, to make the water we drink, taste a little more, perfect. reduce lead and other impurities with the advanced filtration system of brita. reduce lead and other impurities having the right real estate agent on your side is more important than ever. at remax.com, you can find the experts you need, whether you re trying to sell of hoping to buy. nobody sells more real estate than re/max. visit remax.com today. or will soon, you re starting a whole new journey. and, like many people, you re probably wondering, where do i go from here? consider an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. call now for a free information kit and guide to medicare to get started. basically, medicare only covers about 80% of your part b medical expenses. the rest is up to you. a medicare supplement insurance plan helps cover some of those expenses. and that can save you up to thousands of dollars a year in out-of-pocket costs. plus, you can keep any doctor who accepts medicare patients. together with medicare, an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan could be the kind of coverage you re looking for. in fact, it could make a world of difference. call now for your free medicare guide and information kit about aarp medicare supplement insurance plans, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. time now for the flip side. our look behind the headlines. michele bachmann s victory in the ames, iowa, straw poll crowns her the new iowa front runner. but does that actually matter for the hawkeyes state first many the nation caucuses? what about the gop nomination? if history s any case. not really. it did work from george w. bush. he did go on from a strahl poll in iowa and eventually took the white house. and worked more or less for bob dole who tied for a win at the straw poll with phil graham and walked away from the victory and the nomination. he did lose in the general election to bill clinton. the straw poll s solid track record pretty much ends there. in the 1980 race george h.w. bush parlayed a straw poll caucus in a win but lost the battle to ronald reson. the results were all over the map in 1988 with three completely different people winning the three primary stages. the same was true in the last presidential election, mitt romney won the iowa straw poll. he didn t compete there this year. time will tell how that serves him in the long run. that does it for me this hour. contessa brewer picking up things next. craig, good to have you on board. how s it feel? so far so good. have a good monday today. coming up, it s a whole new ball game for the gop race for 2012. michele bachmann appears to be a front runner in iowa. where does that leave mitt romney and rick perry. with president obama facing his lowest approval ratings and the economy many the tank, does he need to come out with a stronger message on the campaign trail. he hits the campaign trail to tell americans he has a plan. and details about the horrifying stage collapse at the indiana state fair. how can this happen? we ll hear from someone who was all there and saw it all happen. stay with us. pays the doctors, boyyy! 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