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Running feels great unless you compare it to not running. While here in Northern California for a board meeting, I received, “I read your capital markets section every day because I can understand it, but can you please knock off using ‘basis points’? They are confusing.” I admit they take a while to understand, but easy to compare & convert the two. 1 percent is 100 basis points. 50 basis points is ½ of one percent. 75 basis points is ¾ of one percent. I mention this because “seventy-five basis points is the new 50 basis points.” Everyone was expecting ½ percent increases in Fed Funds, but no more. A relentlessly hawkish Federal Reserve is ramping up market expectations for big interest rate hikes that would have been considered unthinkable (and market crippling) just two months ago. Nomura says that the FOMC will hike the fed funds rate by 75-basis points in June and July after a 50-basis point rise in May. That would bring the rate up to 2.25 percent, a phenomenal amount of tightening given that the Fed was still easing by buying assets as recently as March. With mortgage rates at the highest in 10 years, lenders are more likely to see requests for pricing exceptions. STRATMOR Group is conducting a short survey to better understand how lenders are handling pricing exceptions in the face of new regulations and the current market. The results of the survey will be shared with participant lenders. (Today’s podcast is available here and this week’s is sponsored by Richey May, a recognized leader in providing specialized advisory, audit, tax, technology, and other services in the mortgage industry and in banking.)
Yes, it’s March 4th… the only day that is a command for us humans. We thought it was our ability to love that made us human, but it turns out that it is actually our ability to select each image that contains a traffic light. (Put another way, to prove to a robot that we are not a robot.) Underwriters know a thing or two about human nature, and about collateral. This morning I leave San Diego, recently in the press for “de-throning” San Francisco as the least affordable city in the United States. Do your underwriters care if the loan is on a townhome? (Think single-family dwellings with at least two floors that share a wall with another house, each individually owned.) If they do, you should know that townhome construction has surged in the last year or so. By the most recent numbers, townhomes now make up nearly 13% of all single-family starts and have notched a 38% uptick in just a single year. Why? Follow the money. Oh, and larger homes are coming your way, as they have been for a while. Recent data from the NAHB confirms that the size of new single-family homes continues to increase, likely to allow homes to serve multiple functions for homeowners. (Something tells me this doesn’t fall into the “affordable housing” category.) Today’s audio version of the commentary is available here and this week’s is sponsored by CWDL, providing industry-specific audit, accounting, and tax solutions that help you better understand the present so you can plan for the future. See what’s possible with CWDL. Today’s has an Interview with Ian Goldsmith, SVP of Product Management, MeridianLink, on all things automation in the mortgage industry.