good morning, and welcome to world wor "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. i'm sara eisen. >> and i'm wilfred frost. let's have a look at u.s. equity futures. we've seen some rebounds across the board. today, though, a little bit of red. in fact, quite a marked amount of red as we look at things. the dow expected to open down by 123 points. the s&p by 16. the nasdaq by the 43. a quick look also at the ten-year yield. it's been a great gauge of risk sentiment. we're looking at 1.84 this morning. that yield has been ticking up the last week or two, showing that risk sentiment has been improving. just holding those levels this morning. >> while you were sleeping, a lot of economic data coming out of asia overnight. here's a quick summary for you. a revision to japan's fourth quarter gdp showing the economy there contracted little less than first thought. the economy in japan shrinking at an annualized 1.1% rate. that was up from a preliminary read of 1.4% contraction. in a separate report, japan's consumer confidence dropping for a second straight month in february, falling to a one-year low. china trade data. february exports dropping by more than 25% in u.s. dollar terms. imports also took a double-digit slide falling nearly 14%. both declines were worst than economists were expecting. however, china's currency driving a lot of the story in asia, and china's currency actually strengthened. late yesterday, reserves fell 26 billion dollars in the month of february. however, that was less than expected. this eased some of the concerns about the yuan's depreciation and china's capital outflows. today we saw a reaction. dollar weakened. chinese stocks actually ended the session with gains. let's show you where stocks closed across the region. japan's nikkei fell 0.75%. as i mentioned, we did eke out a very minor and flattish gain in china despite what on the surface looked like very ugly trade data. potentially because the yuan, the currency managed to strengthen. that's really been the point everyone is watching. the center of the storm. >> i think the trade data was worse than expected, but that number of 25% decline paints a worse picture than, in reality, this was nominal data. the chinese lunar new year moves around every year, and that can distort data. it was a little worse than expected, but 25% at the headline to us when we look at u.s., u.k., european figures -- >> can you imagine? >> that's terrifying. also comes out of bullish commentary from a lat of the officials over the weekend from the people's congress, including a 6.5% to 7% growth rate. you can't have that with 25% decline in exports if they were really worried about that. >> well, yeah. >> or unless they adjust the data. >> the real key markets is looking at for asia over the last month has been both on the currency and on gdp. the authorities, whether it's the leadership or the pboc, they've come out and managed to instill some confidence that they are now communicating and they've got some control. let's get to europe. economic data out of germany rising strongly in january. up some 3%. though markets, as you can see, not focusing on that. they're down across the board. don't forget yesterday we had some declines, but the previous two weeks had shown decent returns for europe. we're up nicely over one month. we're basically flat over one week. that's kind of the vibe for european equities. down, though, today. quick look at currencies. the euro has ticked up a little bit. we're back above 1.10. just as we approach thursday's ecb meeting, don't bet everything on expecting more easing. though, that's the consensus because the euro's ticked up from 1.08 to 1.10 at the moment, as you can see. a bit of volatility in the pound. mark carney is testifying in front of parliament, though largely so far sitting on the fence, not making too stark a view. >> is this the first time we're hearing from the bank of england on brexit? >> no, he's come out with a few comments in the past. there was a big report last october. he clearly isn't meant to take political sides. >> he walks a fine line. all right. let's show you the story in commodities, which has been the underpinning of everything we've been seeing in equities so far. wti crude pulling back a little bit. 37.63, it's down about 0.7%. brent crude is staying above that critical $40 a barrel level. down about 0.5% right now. this after wti crude finished higher by 5.5% yesterday, closing at its highest level since early january. it's been a huge story. it's up 45% from the low hit in the middle of february. just february 11th. a big rebound, raising questions about commodity rout. just quickly show you gold, which has been marching higher all year long. helping those battered gold miners. guess what, it's higher again today. you're seeing strength in the safe havens. that could be helping. up almost 1%. >> let's continue that commodity debate. goldman sachs' commodity team out with a new report today. the goldman team suggests those factors have driven a premature surge in commodity prices that is not sustainable. z the firm is maintaining its bearish view on gold. as for iron ore, goldman predicts a rally will likely prove temporary. it's maintaining the end of year target of $35. on oil, goldman's near-term view is for a trendless market. the firm has a bullish end of year view on energy saying oil will likely rebalance this year and correct a deficit market by year end. lots of volatility. clearly we've come towards the top of the range of that at the moment. that's why they're saying this is a bit premature, this rally we've seen. >> it's a bearish note when you look at it. they don't believe the underlying demand in the chinese market, which they said have driven a lot of this. another 18% to 20% fall is predicted by goldman sachs in metals, like copper, which have been surging on the back of renewed, better sentiment in china and the rest of the world. >> what i think is interesting as well in this article, clearly the highly correlated commodities like copper, iron ore, and oil, they're bearish on that. but they're also bearish on gold, which you might expect if they're bearish on the others, there will be safe haven reasons to buy gold. >> they think the dollar is going to strengthen more. and the credit conditions in china aren't going to remain as easy. anyway, it's a bearish view. a lot of opinions out there. with moves like yesterday's record move in iron ore, some are wondering whether the rout is actually over. goldman says no. >> i think these percentage moves we see, it's more important because we're at such a low base to mention the absolute changes in oil prices. >> we still have so much left to go. >> stocks to watch today, urban outfitters is set to open at its highest level in nearly five months after posting better than expected same-store sales. its free people brand bolstered the results, as you can see. jm smucker announcing mark smucker is the new ceo. shake shack posted results that beat but offered a soft sales outlook for the year. it's called lower by 8.8%. >> big squeeze there. ibm ceo saw her compensation rise 2.5% last year to nearly $20 million. that's according to a new s.e.c. filing. >> nippon telegraph and telephone plans to offer more than $3.5 billion for dell's i.t. business. that's also according to reports. a quiet day for economic and earnings data. the national federation of independent business puts out its monthly small business optimism survey at 6:00 a.m. eastern. retailers dick's sporting goods, results before the opening bell. not much to look at today. >> yes, but also on the agenda, we have chevron holding its analyst day. our landon dowdy joins us with three things to watch. >> hey, sara. good morning. chevron executives will pull back the curtain on some of the unanswered questions. here are three things to watch. first, capital spending. current macroeconomic conditions have pressured chevron to cut back spending more than $9 billion this year. the firm could lower guidance even further. second, layoffings. chevron let go of more than 3,000 workers in 2015 as part of its effort to reduce its work force by 10%. oven though oil prices have rallied, these low levels are still hard for oil giants to stomach. the third thing to watch, the dividend. this is a biggie. can it maintain that 28-year track record of growth, selling assets and borrowing money for the payout is not a sustainable trend. an interesting fact, chevron is part of an index called the s&p 500 aristocrats. it has increased its dividend every year for 25 consecutive years. it's with walmart, 3m. dividends are about the only reason people are holding on to energy. so a big one to watch today. >> what we've learned from this commodity tumble is sometimes they're not sacrosanct. still to come, hedge funds turn into small gains for february. we'll break down the score card next. >> first, we want to hear from you. our twitter and facebook question this morning, is the commodities rout over? commodities have been hammered for almost two years now. is that done? yes or no. give us your answer. we'll read the poll results later in the show. stay tuned. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. welcome back. a very good morning to you. five straight days of gains for u.s. equities. a great starch to march last week. we're just taking some profits today, or at least expected to. as we approach the open, the dow is called down by 120 points. the nasdaq by 43 been we're taking a little bit of a lead from european trade. you can see over 1% in declines on continental europe. despite some decent industrial production data out of germany this morning. sara? >> on a related note, hedge funds managed to score some small gains during the month of february. hedge fund research saying the average fund inched up about 0.5% last month after having dropped about 2.5% in january. global macro funds that bet on currencies, interest rates, and stocks led the gains, but then that was offset by losses from investors like bill ackman and barry rosenstein. visium says it's being investigated over trading and valuation issues. the firm has $8 billion under management and is one of the largest hedge funds that focuses on health care stocks. reports say in a letter to clients that authorities are reviewing how it valued certain securities in a credit fund that was shut in 2013. and junk bonds are staging a come back, reversing a sharp selloff at the beginning of the year. investors poured nearly $5 billion into junk bonds just last week, and that was the biggest inflow on record. junk bonds closely watched for clues about the state of the economy and the tolerance for risk. willingness to buy those riskier assets could signal a swing in investor confidence. it's been one whole correlated trade so far in 2016. the upbeat mood has helped boost that. >> let's see what's happening in asia. sri joins us from singapore with an update. >> good morning. it was the down beat china trade data that really soured the mood. yes, they were negative for a large part of the trading session, but they did come back towards the close of trade. elsewhere, stronger yen hurt the exporters. so the 17,000 handle is looking that much more elusive. back to you. >> thank you very much. >> when we come back, michael bloomberg says he'll not be running for president. >> but first, here's today's forecast from the weather channel's kelly cass. >> good morning to you, wilfred and sara. if you like the warmer weather, you're in for a treat across the eastern half of the country. new york up to 64. beautiful weather for bring breakers down in florida. however, we're watching out for severe storms here in the southern plains. already we've had high water rescues taking place not too far from dallas. 76 and stormy weather. some of those storms could be severe, including the possibility of tornadoes. of course, we have the flood threat for the middle of the country as well. not as active in southern california. 70 and sunshine in los angeles. keeping the wet weather across the pacific northwest. 52 in denver. 76 in dallas. quite warm for chicago this time of year with highs in the mid to upper 60s. that's a look at your national weather. ♪ in new york state, we believe tomorrow starts today. all across the state, the economy is growing, with creative new business incentives, and the lowest taxes in decades, attracting the talent and companies of tomorrow. like in buffalo, where the largest solar gigafactory in the western hemisphere will soon energize the world. and in syracuse, where imagination is in production. let us help grow your company's tomorrow - today - at business.ny.gov earth hour is about empowering people making a difference to change climate change with passion and excitement earth hour is about inspiring climate action celebrating a global movement and impact ♪ join us at earthhour.org 19th march at 8:30pm ♪ good morning. if you're just waking up, let's get you up to speed on today's market action. futures under pressure here in the u.s. after five straight days of gains. we could be breaking the winning streak today with s&p futures down 17, dow futures down 129. nasdaq futures down 45. nasdaq underperformed in the session yesterday, did get some ugly china trade data overnight. could be part of the story. also, oil is under pressure after nearly 5.5% gains yesterday. backing off a bit today. 37.64 on wti. still, though, down less than a percent. brent, the international benchmark, stays above $40 per barrel, but it is under pressure by about half a percent. >> sara, thank you very much. in news outside the world of business, at least 14 people were injured last night after a commuter train derailed in northern california. authorities say the train was traveling from san jose to stockton when the front car fell into a creek. officials say it was raining heavily in the area at the time of the accident. now to politics. presidential candidates are traveling across several states as they try to bring in as many votes as possible in today's primaries. tracie potts joins us live from washington with the story. tracie, good morning. >> reporter: good morning. we focus this morning on the democrats in michigan because that's going to be a big one for bernie sanders. they've got more than 150 democratic delegates to give out today, and he's got to do well in this state to catch up with hillary clinton. today's michigan primary could be bernie sanders' last chance to beat hillary clinton. he's disputing her claim that he voted against saving the state's auto industry. >> what i did not vote for was a middle-class bailout for the crooks on wall street. >> reporter: in a fox news town hall, clinton reached out to sanders' supporters. >> i hope to win the nomination. if i am so fortunate, i hope to work with him. >> reporter: republicans are focused on today's mississippi primary. >> raise your right hand, everybody. do you swear that you're going to vote for donald trump tomorrow? raise that hand. i love you. >> reporter: ted cruz is going after trump supporters there. >> we're seeing folks who had been supporting donald trump who are realizing he isn't who they thought he was. >> we need someone that will unite this party, and i can and i will. >> reporter: in florida, marco rubio is the underdog, now facing attack ads from trump. >> all talk, no action. >> reporter: the latest poll shows rubio closing in but still eight points behind trump in rubio's home state. florida votes next tuesday. now, ohio also votes next tuesday. the other big winner take all state. the difference there is that the home state advantage, john kasich, he's actually doing better against trump, not winning, but doing better than rubio is in his home state. kasich is about four points behind. >> tracie, the cover story here of many papers, mike isn't fixing this. mike bloomberg coming out writing a very personal, what i think is meaningful, op-ed about why he's deciding he's not running. what's been the reaction this morning? >> reporter: well, it's interesting because now that we know he's not running, it's not going to have that splitting impact on the republican side as we thought it might. but he's also, as you said, it's very personal. he's coming out very strongly against ted cruz and donald trump. sort of the independent version of mitt romney. these noncandidates who are coming out, it's very interesting at this point in the race. these noncandidates coming out very forcefully and powerfully against the number one and the number two on the republican side. >> is there a feeling that ultimately it's going to help hillary clinton, the mitt romneys and mike bloombergs of the world? >> reporter: it certainly could. what it says ultimately is there's just so much -- you don't want to say split because you still have four candidates. there's just a lot of dissension going on in the republican party right now. the key there is going to be how do independents look at that. once we get past this nominating process, do they want a party that's more stable, and is the party going to unite behind, if it ends up being donald trump, is the party going to unite behind them, or will you have a lot of republicans and independents stay home? that would definitely help whoever the democratic nominee determines to be. >> tracie, as ever, thank you very much for getting up early with us today. other political news this morning, "the huffington post" reports tech ceos attended a secret meeting where the topic was preventing donald trump from getting the republican nomination. it was hosted on a private island off the coast of georgia. the report says tim cook got into a debate with senator tom cotton of arkansas about the ongoing battle with the fbi. interesting meeting if that genuinely was the discussion. >> to be a fly on the wall. >> or to be a cnbc anchor in there with a camera. even better. >> and on the record. back to the bloomberg article for a moment. i would think that a lot of business leaders, a lot of hedge fund managers, a lot of people that americans don't care at all about right now are going to be very upset that he is not -- he was always their hope. tchs always in the cocktail conversations. maybe mike bloomberg will run. >> maybe, but i don't think anyone expected him to run whilst hillary was picking up more and more momentum. as he makes clear, that would have help ed trump. but as tracie was mentioning, mitt romney's criticism fell on deaf ears. i wonder if this will do the same. >> because the turnout is still huge for some of the voters. we have some sports news to tell you about today. nike and tag hauer have suspended ties with maria sharapova after she said she failed a drug test. she's been taking meldonium for ten years now. it's used to treat diabetes and low magnesium and was only banned by the world anti-doping agency back in january. sharapova says she takes full responsibility for her mistake but does hope she gets another opportunity to continue her career. the 28-year-old could face a year-long ban. maria sharapova is the world's highest paid female athlete. she's earned $29.5 million last year, mostly from the off-court businesses. her ventures and endorsements. in addition to nike and tag huere, her sponsors include avon and evion. >> even though she's tried to make clear it was totally innocent, they have to clamp down. >> hence the statement from nike. >> a sad moment. a jury has awarded sportscaster erin andrews $55 million in her lawsuit against a stalker who secretly recorded a nude video of her through a peephole in her hotel room. the panel found both the stalker and the hotel company shared in the blame. andrews, who works for fox sports and is co-host of "dancing with the stars," wept as the verdict was announced. she testified she was humiliated and suffers from depression as a result of the video, which has been viewed by millions of people online. still to come, this morning's top stories, including shake shack shares getting pounded. >> but first, our twitter and facebook question. get in touch with us. is the commodities rout every? it's the question of the morning. we'll share the results, stay tuned. good morning. under pressure. dow pressures pointing to a trip triple-point loss at the open. shake shack getting hit hard after sales at the burger chain slow and guidance disappoints. plus, taking flight. is it your dream to be a pilot? it could be as simple as a call to jetblue. we'll tell you why. it's tuesday, march 8th, 2016. you're watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. good morning. welcome to "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. i'm sara eisen. >> and i'm wilfred frost. let's get a check on global markets this morning. futures pointing to a negative open. we did have five straight days of gains. a great start to march last week. today it looks like we're going to take some profits. the dow called lower by 130 points. we're taking a little bit of a lead from europe, where we're looking at over 1% in declines for continental europe. just under that for london. this despite some strong industrial production data out of germany, which leapt 3%. as you can see, we're focusing more on the sentiment of profit taking than any fundamental data in europe. in asia, there was some fundamental data that was disappointing, in particular chinese export data. although, bear in mind the chinese lunar new year did dwarf the day thta a little bit. >> the currency strength, that helped them a little. >> it did indeed. >> god gol man sachs oald man sa new report today. the team suggests those factors have driven what they say is a premature surge in commodities prices. that is absolutely not sustainable. the firm maintaining its bearish view on gold. it keeps its near-term copper price target of 4500. as for iron ore, which saw a record jump yesterday, goldman prep dictatorships that rally will likely prove temporary, so it is maintaining an end of year target of $35. on oil, goldman's near-term view is for a pretty much trendless market with substantial volatility between $40 per barrel and $20 per barrel. the firm has a bullish end of year call here on energy saying oil will rebalance and create a deficit by year end. but goldman cautions a so-called green shoot of a deficit alone is not sustainable for a narcotimarket. they also say chinese demand is not picking up sharply. they say better credit conditions and the weaker dollar are not expected to last. >> a really interesting point that comes out through this is price recoveries on their own are no reason to think there's fundamentals behind this. i think in the last two weeks, everyone's been, oh, is the worst behind us, is the commodity rout behind us. in late 2014, twice in 2015, we asked the same questions when we saw rallies of 10% to 20% and very quickly they evaporated. so goldman coming out clearly. >> though there's an argument for the fact the dollar has not been strengthening at the speed or magnitude we saw it strengthening last year. that china is calmer and has maintained control over its currency, which is a little calmer. it was a confidence breakdown in china. so there are arguments to be had on both sides, which is why we asked on twitter today whether the commodities rout is over. >> results of that coming up. i totally agree in terms of the u.s. dollar. absolutely crucial. >> also, have you seen how many rigs have come offline in the u.s.? >> no, tell me the number. >> well, i don't know the number, but every single week we get more evidence on friday during the baker hughes rig count that they're shutting -- i mean, it hasn't led to a marked production decrease in the u.s., but they are taking a lot of these rigs offline. i'll find the number for you. >> they're also negative on gold. bear that in mind as well. not so correlated with the other commodities they're negative on, but they are negative on gold too. the world of central banks a lot of focus on the ecb this week. a policy decision due thursday morning followed by a marco draghi conference. vice chair stanley fischer says u.s. inflation may be starting to tick up from too-low levels. in an interview with steve liesman yesterday, the fed governor said the evidence is not so clear. >> there are a variety of reasons to think that inflation could stabilize, could move up over time if oil prices stop falling, if the dollar doesn't rise further, if what we're seeing in the labor market starts to translate through into higher inflation than one would expect to see it moving up. on the other hand, though, is some troubling signs that inflation expectations have slipped downwards. so that is a risk to the outlook that i'm looking very carefully at as well. >> a two-day fed meeting scheduled to begin two weeks from today. >> really centering on inflation. they can't argue with the improvement in jobs with the 4.9% unemployment rate. some slack still in the labor market, but it is that inflation debate that's going to be so crucial. as far as the hierarchy, stand fischer, if you had to go with one over the other. >> inflation still a serious issue in europe as well. that's why so much expectation -- >> it's negative. >> just to the margin if you look monthly or yearly. absolutely right. inflation a problem for lots of developed economies. >> some stocks to watch today. starting with energy. chesapeake energy's lawsuit against aubrey mcclendon was on the verge of being settled, according to "the wall street journal." the suit alleged the lay co-founder had stolen proprietary maps and data. thor industries posts earnings and revenue beat. the pratt and whitney unit has secured a contract from the u.s. air force. the firm will build engines for the new bomber. shares unchanged early this morning. united natural foods saw its profits slide nearly 20% on higher costs. still, adjusted earnings came in above estimates. it's basically flat in premarket. shake shack is poised to pose its biggest intraday plunge in months. the chain posted results that beat but offered a soft sales outlook for the year. it scored lower by 9%. urban outfitters is set to open its highest level in nearly five months after posting better than expected same-store sales. it's called to open higher by 12.25%. >> when it comes to shake shack, it was that outlook. 2.5% to 3% comps is not what investors are used to seeing. they've been sort of preparing it for a while. this is a stroock that's pricedt like 300 times earnings. >> i still haven't tried it. >> it's the best, especially the cheese fries. >> there we go. >> today's top trending stories for you. wall street bonuses taking a major hit last year. they're down 9% since 2014. new york state officials are expecting another decline of 2.5% for this year. the average salary remains pretty strong, rising 14% in 2014, according to the most recent data available. diplo and major laser made history by performing in havana on monday. they're the first major u.s. pop act to play there since diplomatic relations with cuba were reinstated in 2014. a huge, huge turnout. i think i read it was -- >> 400,000? >> unbelievable. that must be quite an experience. >> well, they have a lot of american and foreign pop stars and musical performances. >> kudos. jetblue launching its own pilot training program, no experience required. the airline is taking applications for 24 open spots for the program, which will take about four years and cost $125,000. jetblue promises trainees will be just as qualified as those from any flight school. >> i think we should get phil e lebeau. lyft ridership has increased 500% in new york city since last may. recode says the pool of drivers has multiplied by four times and weekly riders by six times. they recently cut fares in 33 cities, including new york. >> have you ever used it? >> i haven't. >> me either. >> the yelp for people. this is the controversial one. that app is finally here. makers say it provides a, quote, reference check for people around the world by showing reviews of people's neighbors and dates. it generated a lot of buzz and criticism when the idea was revealed back in october. celebrities took to twitter calling the app horrible and scary. trch >> it reviews your dates. >> people is what it's called. >> i don't like the sound of it either. the difference with something like facebook is you have to accept friends. >> review them? but it could help you in scouting your dates. >> i doubt that. if the ri views are up there, i'm sure it will compound my misery. >> some people say it promotes all the wrong things. right. those are the trending stories. coming up, today's must reads, including michael bloomberg in his own words. hear why the former new york mayor says he's not running for president. stay tuned. lots more to come here on "worldwide exchange." welcome back. good morning to you if you're just getting up. futures pointing lower. we've had a good start to the month. five straight days of gains. reacting a little bit today to european trade, which is soft. mnow to today's must reads, the stories catching our attention. has to be michael bloomberg explaining why he will not be running for president. he wrote it in a bloomberg view op-ed piece saying the risk i will not take, that was the title. he writes, i love our country too much to play a role in electing a candidate who would weaken our unity and darken our future. so i will not enter the race for president of the united states. he lays out basically how he's been in public service, why it's important to him, how he hates all of the fighting in washington. but then sort of gets into a very realistic scenario about why if he launched a third-party bid, even if he won some states and some of the electoral votes, he would essentially be handing, even if it was a three-way tie between him and the democratic and republican front runners, it would then be handed to congress, and he couldn't risk handing that victory with congress controlled by republicans to donald trump or to ted cruz. he took a swipe at both of them, but more toward donald trump. he says extremism is on the marnl, and unless we stop it, our problems at home and abroad will grow worse. >> i think the surprising thing for this -- it's nicely written, and the content is very nice, be up the content is not that surprising. we always knew that hillary was doing very well, he was unlikely to run. i think the timing is a little surprising because he didn't wait for a clear indication that hillary clinton was going to get the nomination. this is almost him coming out because he thinks, okay, it's nailed on that hillary's got that nomination. either way -- >> that's true. maybe he saw the risks and thinks she won't get indicted or the e-mail will blow over. >> well, he could always change his mind. >> he doesn't talk about hillary at all. >> my pick, another political one from t"the wall street journa journal". the author writes, trump or cruz couldn't sway a majority at the convention. if they couldn't, it would be because they couldn't convince their fellow republicans that they have the best chance of winning. every candidate entered the race knowing the rule, and every candidate has an equal opportunity to exploit them. he's pointing to the fact we've already seen cruz and trump make protests many case they get a plurality but not a majority. it just goes through the rules and how things might play out if we get that outcome. i think that's another big, big question mark for the republican nomination. >> and somewhere that a lot of americans haven't been before. the last contested convention was in the '70s. all sorts of interesting rules come into play. so clearly we're talking politics, we're talking about a triple-digit decline in futures approaching the top of the hour. that means the team for "squawk box" is getting ready. becky quick joins us from new york. becky, i assume you'll be talking a lot about both of these subjects. >> absolutely. we're looking at what's been happening with the markets. as you know, we're coming off five days in a row of gains for the s&p 500 and the dow. looking at the market, it's really made a pretty unbelievable comeback over the last several weeks. part of what's been going on is what's been happening with commodities prices. oil prices picking up, but the overall commodities index picking up substantially. it's got people starting to ask about potential inflation questions but also maybe we're just seeing things get back to normal a little bit. we have dennis gartman coming on to talk about what he sees in commodities. we're also getting new numbers coming out. a new report on the health of small business coming up at the top of the hour. this is the nfib out with its small business optimism report. that'll give us an idea of how the small businesses are feeling. of course, those are the job creators in the nation. you two were just talking about politics. we'll be doing a little bit of that ourselves. harold ford is stopping by to talk about the primaries running today, the big one being in michigan. we'll talk about the republican and democratic race. all of it coming up in a few minutes at the top of the hour. right now, back over to you. >> becky, thank you very much. 12 minutes to go until "squawk box." one not to miss, as ever. still to come here on "worldwide exchange," global stocks under pressure right now. we'll ask peter boockvar what's spooking the markets when we come back. don't go anywhere. welcome back. a quick look at futures. pointing to a lower open. let's get more analysis with peter boockvar. thanks for joining us. we've had a good little run in terms of equities and risk assets generally with commodities. we have a bit of a correction again? >> i think it's a classic bear market rally, which we deserved. we got extremely oversold mid-february. pressure pointing affecting markets then relieved itself. commodity prices started to firm. that drove this. i still think it's a bear market and there's still room to the downside both in price and time. >> when you look at the commodities market and say it's a bear market bounce, even if you are -- >> well, commodities i'm actually bullish on. it's the stock market. bear markets don't end on good news. they end on news being less bad. i think the most significant thing with commodities is that the supply side has now begun to respond to the weakening demand side. when you have the chinese saying we're willing to lay people off and close production and close down smelters, that's significant response to the weakness on the demand side. it will be the supply side that creates the bottom in commodities, not an uptick in demand. >> so you disagree with the goldman note out today, saying we're in for more pain. the chinese demand is not substantially higher. and by the way, the dollar is going higher as well. >> i agree that the demand is not substantially higher, but it's the supply side. the dollar topped out a year ago. so i'm not on the strong dollar camp. all we have to look at is the dollar action against a lot of the commodity currencies, a lot of the emerging markets. >> but you see how much the price of oil and commodities is driving stocks. if you're bullish on commodities, why not on stocks? >> because i'm worried a rise in commodity prices leads to an uptick in the inflation numbers, this leads to an increase in interest rates and a fed that's back in the game. so the stock market will rally itself into a rate hike. oil prices will rally itself into a rate hike. the commodity prices have been falling for five years. stocks have done nothing but go up. so you don't need commodity prices -- the stock market to rally with commodity prices. >> a fed that's back in the game, you just said, potentially, and you also said the strong dollar has finished. yet we're also looking at potentially more easing from the ecb tomorrow. you really don't think the dollar can strengthen against currencies like the euro? >> against the euro and yen, yes. but we can't look at the dollar at either up or down against everybody. we have to separate the dollar's action against groups of currencies. the dollar, we have it against the euro and the yen, which is the central bank debasement competition. we have the dollar against commodity currencies and the dollar has clearly topped out. and we have the dollar against asian currencies impacted by the yuan. i don't want to make a blanket statement on the dollar. >> when we look at the ecb meeting coming up, whatever they do, is the effect that central banks has on equities now much reduced than it was a couple years ago? >> i think absolutely. the central banks lost control of commodity prices five years ago. they're now beginning to lose control of other asset prices. for me, from a valuation per spe spective, that's the most dangerous thing for markets that are still very overskrvalued. >> are you buying the beaten down resource stocks? how do you play this? >> i think that's the area where you want to be. xme fell top to bottom 85%. if you want to look for opportunities, you look for that space. getting back to what you said about goldman sachs, i think their call on gold is also potentially dead wrong. >> they say lower. >> if you were to script a bullish case for gold and you were just dropped on the earth, you would say money printing of massive size and negative interest rates, what more bullish scenario can you have for that than gold. and you have it. i don't understand their bear case. if it's just because they think the dollar is going to go up, i think that's very misplaced. do you believe in technical levels for gold? it hasn't looked like it wants to get out of the 1200 levels. >> well, the most important thing about gold is it hasn't fallen when stocks have risen. it was a very inverse relationship for the last couple years. to me, that's the most significant technical tell. >> so the flipside is if commodities start going up and the dollar has topped out and we talk about the fed getting in play, all of that is a good thing for consumers and for demand and for the u.s. economy. the fed should be raising if our economy is in good enough shape and we're seeing inflation to do so. so why such a negative take? >> i want interest rates to go up. i want them to normalize. i want emerging markets to get off the ground and higher commodities will help. my concern with u.s. stocks is the valuation of them. they got very expensive via qe over the last couple years. so let's just say that the u.s. economy wages start to go up. that'll be good for employees, but it means pressure on profit margins, which is negative for corporate earnings. i'm not saying things are all bad. i think there are going to be pockets of good, but u.s. stocks are still expensive, even with this correction. and with potentially higher rates and a squeeze in profit margi margins, that's what i'm most concerned about. >> you're not buying shake shack? >> i love their hamburgers. >> wilfred's got to try it. >> peter, thank you so much for joining us this morning. >> one minute left, here what we're watching. i'm watching copper. 25% dip in exports for february, but that's an ugly number. copper is under pressure, but it has staged a nice rebound toward the end of the chart. >> i'm keeping an eye on the u.s. dollar. despite some of the points peter just made, i think it's been crucial for the sentiment in the commodity market and indeed for equities as well. keeping an eye on that. the particular one to focus on against the euro this week. >> the answer to our twitter question s the commodities routd over, the question of the day. 65% of you say no. they disagree with peter and agree with goldman sachs. but we've still got 35% yes. >> that's it for today's show. have a great morning. good morning. the race for the white house. voters in four states pick their candidate today. plus, michael bloomberg says he won't play spoiler. the full rundown of today's top political stories. crude in focus following yesterday's 5% gain. oil is now up more than 45% from the february low, but wti is slightly lower this morning. and tennis superstar maria sharapova said she failed a drug test at the australian open. this is the highest paid female athlete over the past ten years. makes about $30 million a year. now nike and tag huer are suspending their partnerships. it's tuesday, march 8th, 2016, michigan night, and "squawk box" starts right now. good morning, everyone. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and scott wapner. andrew is off today. after five days in a row of gains, you are seeing the markets give back some today. dow futures are down triple digits. a decline of about 128 points below fair value. s&p futures look like they would open down by about 17 points. the nasdaq would open off by close to 45. overseas in europe, you can see in the early trading some similar moves with the dax down by about 1.5%. the cac is off by 1.6%. the ftse by 0.9%. the nikkei

Related Keywords

New York , United States , Arkansas , Japan , Germany , Florida , China , California , Georgia , Stockton , Syracuse , Michigan , Washington , District Of Columbia , Denver , Colorado , Mississippi , London , City Of , United Kingdom , Havana , Ciudad De La Habana , Cuba , Town Hall , Ohio , Dallas , Texas , Singapore , Chicago , Illinois , Americans , Chinese , Nippon , American , Marco Rubio , Phil Le Lebeau , Bernie Sander , Stanley Fischer , John Kasich , Los Angeles , Sara Eisen , Erin Andrews , Michael Bloomberg , Tim Cook , Aubrey Mcclendon , Kelly Cass , Mike Bloomberg , Maria Sharapova , Barry Rosenstein , Harold Ford , Marco Draghi , Goldman Sach , Ted Cruz , Tracie Potts , Hillary Clinton , Bernie Sanders ,