kemp career and help them win in the primaries. trump opposes kemp because of kemp didn't go along with what trump was saying about the 2020s election and integrity ofe that election in georgia. david perdue senator who lost in 2020 is challengingo brian kem. most people expect paul suggests brian kemp is going to finish first tonight and is going to get over 50 present needs to avoid a runoff. that's the one everyone is watching because the former president put so much of a personal stake in the race and doesn't seem like it'sn' turning out the waye he wants it to trm a reminder it's 50% plus one vote in georgia welu learned a t about that back in 2020. if that does happen and if brian kemp wins by significant margin what does that say about a donald trump endorsement especially in light of president trump's perhaps mixed record endorsements try to particularly gubernatorial races it doesn't seem like trumpist said the juicy as had another chance of races. trump is issuing endorsements and also some races across country many times he's endorsing what is noer doubt abt the winter and so i think it's fair to look at where he's intervening in competitive races and he has had some successes. j. d. vance in ohio, the trump endorsement was helpful and i think the republican party remains broadly supportive of donald trump. republican candidates want his endorsement. trump is taking some hits there and there but he has a ton of influence and is also very active for a defeated former president which of course leads people to wonder whether he's going to runun in 2024 and certainly he could at this point. >> host: from the peach state to the yellow hammer state what's happening in alabama? >> guest: senate primary tonight for the open republican senate nomination in that state. you've got a handful of candidates. trump intervened on behalf of mo brooks, a member of the u.s. house but then brooks was not doing so well. he was trailing two other candidates so trump rescinded his endorsement but brooks seems like he might make a runoff. there's going to be runoff there, three major candidates so it's kind of a question who's going to make it but brooks may be one of those candidates and that would be an interesting way to look at trump influence because someone he endorsed but then rescinded the endorsement but maybe hesc will make the runoff anyway. >> host: is it something about how the calendar has fallen so far this midterm election cycle or something about what democrats are doing it primaries? there seems to be more high profile republican primaries is cycle in democraticri primaries. there's the fetterman race in pennsylvania they got a lot of attention, conor lamb, the congressman but we seem to be talking about republican primaries. >> host: there are more open seats so you have competitive primaries like in pennsylvania and ohio and alabama. you had republican senators whoo retired so that led to competitive primaries. in the senate races almost all democratic incumbents running again like raphael warnock in georgia and mark kelly in arizona, catherine cortez masto in nevada. you also have a lot of incoming governors running a both sides but to the extent there been primary challenges to incumbent governors they've been a republican side. you have had donald trump against sitting republican governors but trump as necessary had success in that, his bids to essentially kick out incumbent republican governors in primaries. the race tonight is a most high profile of those here but i agree and does feel like there's much more action on the republican side. there's been a lot more republican participation in the primaries on the republican side compared to the democratic side. >> host: the all-important turnout numbers. >> guest: i don't know if primary turnout is predictive of november outcomes but if your belief going into the primaries is that republicans are more engaged, this is a republican leaning your, nothing but the primary turnout which we offer that idea. then the texas runoff tonight. guest: you have a member of the bush family, george p. bush any for state attorney general in texas. an underdog to ken paxton who is the sitting republican attorney general in that state. there's also a primary in texas 28th which is the south texas seat. those of been trending towards republicans particularly in 2020. so you've got one of the probably most conservative house democrats or one of the most house democrats. he's running against a much more progressive candidate. that's a very competitive democratic primary which will tell us something about the future track of the democratic party. host: allowing you to call in to talk about what races you want to talk about this midterm election cycle. 202-748-8000202-748-8000 edie's -- it is 202-748-8000 for democrats, for republicans 202-748-8001. independents 202-748-8002. as folks are calling in, want to show folks what georgia voters are seeing. here is one ad from david purdue. [video clip] >> brian kemp is a turncoat, a coward and a complete and total disaster. a vote for david purdue is a vote to save georgia and a vote for this country because we have to have honest elections. the choice is clear. host: david purdue pointing that out not too long after getting president trump's endorsement. brian kemp with his own set of ads has a very expensive race. >> insider david purdue, his out-of-control spending, governor brian kemp has valent -- balance the state budget every year. he suspended the gas tax to help with prices of the pump and delivered historic income tax cuts. washington failure david purdue called these tax cuts disgusting. governor brian kemp gets things done. >> on the end of that ad turning to the general election before the primary is done focusing on stacey abrams and a bit of a closing message. guest: abrams will be the democratic nominee for governor. she lost in a pretty competitive race in 2018. for whatever division in the republican party following the primary, i think the specter of abrams potential being governor will be a way to unify the republicans following this fairly divisive primary. i think one problem you start to see with the purdue add is purdue has made his entire pitch about donald trump and the 2020 election the sort of backwards looking. one thing you hear about that is purdue hasn't made a compelling case from a positive case for his own candidacy and wide camp -- brian kemp should be thrown out of office. host: the former vice president mike pence was at uva not too long ago. he has been involved in this georgia gubernatorial race. guest: the former vice president came in and supported brian kemp in this, going against his former boss. i think it was also an opportunity for him to go in and support an otherwise pretty loyal republican and frankly pretty pro-trump publican despite the break between the two. but pence is waiting waiting back into the waters a bit and i think leaving open the possibility in 2024. host: let us know what you want -- which race you want to talk about. plenty to talk about with us for the next 35 minutes or so. this is care a lot of new york. line for democrats, good morning. caller: good morning. i hate to rain on your discussion but i would like to ask about new york state generally in terms of the congressional races. our lines are about three days old as we speak, candidates are still running around for districts. i am particularly interested in the new york 19th, the new 19 which is an open seat. i believe josh riley has expressed an interest in it and a woman, jamie cheney on the democratic side, i think it would've been -- i think delgado would have had -- would've been a very competitive race with delgado. so anything you can talk about in the 19th specifically or new york state generally i would be very interested in. thank you. host: you are not raining on our parade. guest: a lot going on in new york. they have a new congressional map. the state courts throughout the map. the new map finally emerged on friday evening, it was basically saturday morning. i did not stay up for but a lot of people dead. so in new york, you've got there at six districts. 21 of the 26 will be reduced -- district one by less than 10 points. and one of those you mentioned new york 19 which is antonio delgado's district. delgado will be running for lieutenant governor now. there'll be a special election in current new york 19. there is a republican there who ran for governor in 2018 and is fairly prominent and based on our meetings we see them as a slight favorite in the old district in the regular election the new district. does a lot of jostling going on. host: are we done with redistricting? guest: not quite. new hampshire is a holdout. two district per new hampshire has seen congressional map since the 1880's, a very basic division of the state. republicans and state legislature there want to make one district easier for them to win it easier for the democrats and the other one. the democrats currently hold both district. governor chris sununu doesn't want to change the map that much so that's the one holdout we have. but overall we can start to be able to say things but the overall map, of the current districts, the ones in place, if you look at the median house districts, all of those districts, the median house seat was won by about 2.5 points. about two points to the right of the nation. under the new probably get a b by about two points so the overall map is a little bit better for republicans if you look at it by that measure, it still has a little bit of a republican bias built into it. >> what about the measure deciding who can be speaker of the house. to gain seats in lost seats overall. guest: it's been kind of a wash. some of that you can determine until the actual election. what ended up happening with a lot of places you saw republicans see some of their seats eliminated like a new york state one of their seats was eliminated. but they thought they would be able to make up for that by winning current democratic seats in those states. so if you just look at the seats eliminated and added, democrats with a little bit of an advantage but that might get washed away by the overall results. republicans are still in a very good position in november. caller: good morning. i like your program. i get the call and talk. host: thanks for calling in. go ahead. caller: i was wondering about the pennsylvania election. it looks like the 2020 election all over again in pennsylvania and the gentleman there just mentioned their republicans look good, but unfortunately their voting again just like they did in 2020. it looks like democrats are going to pull off the same shenanigans they did last time. especially in pennsylvania anyway. i don't know about the voting georgia was suppressed when they more people vote in the primary than they did in 2020. guest: i appreciate the call. i disagree with the characterization of the pennsylvania elections in that what we had in 2020 was a lot of people voting by mail who hadn't voted by mail in the past. there was a change that the republican state legislature and the democratic governor agreed to in pennsylvania in 20 before the pandemic. more people took advantage of that because the pandemic for obvious reasons and a lot of the ballots weren't allowed to be processed in advance which is why the count took so long. i think part of the reason why the primary between mamet oz and david mccormick for republican senate nomination, a part of the reason that's taking so long as it's really close. host: under 1000 votes. caller: it takes a long -- guest: it takes a long time to figure out and there will be a recount. these things happen. i don't get means there's something wrong with the election in pennsylvania. that's just the process we have. host: what does that mean for democrats at, too they try to take advantage of that time? guest: to me it's still fairly early in the calendar. some states have historically really late primaries like florida is happily one of last states to vote. at that point you're getting pretty close to the general election, is a some sort of delay might be an issue there. i think is plenty of time for the republicans get their act together and unify. oz looking in a slightly better position than mccormick. host: staying in the keystone state. good morning. caller: good morning, how are you. host: doing well. caller: i'm looking at all of the issues and listening to all of the issues and it was awesome hearing that woman on the other channel the real problems on the top is looking at because they are not financially strained. host: how is that going to relate to the midterm elections. caller: we are electing more sharks into the tank that is eating the working society. host: that is michael in pennsylvania. let me try to relate this to the tweet who asks can you talk about anyone running who has vowed not to take corporate donations. guest: that has been something that's emerged on the democratic side although i can't necessarily think of folks. some people more on the left have talked about that. host: it's an issue that's come up in the past. guest: pack money, is something that comes up. if you can sort of generate a national audience in national fundraising network, sometimes you don't need that money because are just raising small dollars from all over the country or getting small dollar donations. host: what about that pennsylvania democratic primary. was where they were getting their money and issue? >> i don't recall it necessarily being an issue. fetterman was a much better fundraiser and that race anyway and has become kind of a national figure, at least a statewide figure in pennsylvania. particularly in the aftermath of the pennsylvania 2020 election he was on tv a lot defending the integrity of the vote and i think he's also a charismatic guy, kind of a character in american politics. i think he was just able to get a bigger statewide and national profile. to the caller's point about his question made me think about the inflation problem which is the worst it's been in 40 years and it's really a politically potent issue because inflation affects everyone and particularly impacts those who don't have as much of an income and aren't doing quite as well and they are the ones who really feel the price increases a lot. i think if trump were president we would still have this inflation problem. we are seeing it in a lot of other similar countries across the world. for the incumbent party it's been a big political problem. host: staying in pennsylvania, good morning. are you with us? you've got to stick by your phone. 202-748-8000 for democrats to call in. republicans 202-748-8001. independents 202-748-8002 talking midterm elections. our guest from the university of virginia center for politics. also seeing on your screen the title of your book, the long red thread. a democrat dominance gave way to republican advantage in u.s. house elections. how. guest: a lot of different factors over the years. political real ellen men particular in the south. in the 1960's the south is him is entirely democratic at that time. republicans also lost some strength on the west coast and northeast over the last five or six decades, the trade-offs of generally benefited republicans. also the control of the redistricting process. democrats used to have much more control of that in the 70's and 80's use republicans complaining about gerrymandering back then, using redistricting for gain. over time the advantage passed to the republicans and so democrats are the ones more concerned with gerrymandering. if you look at the median house seat under the old maps and new map there's a little bit of publican bias there of a couple of points. we are also at a time where incumbency is not his valuables used to be. democrats used to be successful at winning district that otherwise didn't favor their party. you saw conservative and moderate democrats winning in districts that voted republican. the incumbency doesn't matter as much as it used to. voting is determined in a lot of ways by presidential preference. district of a for one party for president and the other party for congress. so all these things have happened and i think generally speaking republicans benefited. if you look at prior to 1994, when their public and one the house for the first time in decades, democrats it held the house for years before 1994. since 94 it's been 20 of 28 of democrats with a house -- democrats have the majority now. so you can look at that is sort of a key moment where the house goes from being overwhelmingly democratic basically all the time to competitive with republicans are likelier and not to win the majority. >> you said incumbency doesn't matter as much as it you stupid we of them lose. david mckinley after being put in a race in west virginia read madison cawthorn losing his bid to a republican challenger. as you look ahead, who is the next most vulnerable incumbent in a primary? >> one of them is for an election that already happened. it isn't tabulated yet. another more moderate democrat. there was a ballot printing error in one of the counties in the district and so we are still waiting for that race to be called. the indications are he will lose to a more progressive challenger. he could end up losing tonight. that race being close and competitive. >> good morning. i think i'm missing something here. you all keep talking about republicans gaining seats in the house and senate. i haven't heard any republican say what they are going to do for their constituents. that goes both ways. democrats. it's getting kind of old that they're running on this fake election --. water these politicians going to do for the working person. that's what i want to know. because i don't see the republicans gaining any seats at all when they are running on air. >> one of the subplots of the election so far has been rick scott, a u.s. senator, republican from florida who chairs the committee, i think he has presidential ambitions. he denies that, but i think at the least he wants to become more prominent national figure. scott has put out his own central plan for what he wants to do with the republican majority. it has some things in there democrats attacked him for particularly suggesting as her public and seven the past that americans, a fair number of americans don't pay income tax and that every american should pay some level of income tax which would amount to a tax increase on essentially the poorest americans. the reason i bring that up is to say mitch mcconnell is the center republican leader was critical of scott for doing that because mcconnell realizes this is a referendum election and it's fair to say the republicans are not talking a lot about what they want to do. they are more running as a referendum. the democrats did the same thing in 2018, you keep the focus on that person and on the party. you don't talk as much about what you want to do and that gets into more of a choice which is often what the president's party wants to do in a midterm. host: kay ivey facing a republican primary, the ad that got the most attention was this ad in which she focused on joe biden. [video clip] >> growing up, my mom and dad taught us, if you cannot say anything nice, do not say anything at all. here is what i have to say about joe biden. alabama's one and only kay ivey. poor joe. bless his heart. guest: you talk about the rock -- election being the referendum, iv is the sitting governor and has a primary of her own. it looks like she is going to finish ahead of her competitors, but may not get above the 50% required for the runoff. host: ron, dover, pennsylvania. line for democrats. are you there? caller: my question is, how can these republicans run for office if they were involved in the insurrection? that is the edge of treason or something, i do not understand. host: happening as the january 6 elect committee is going to be set to be holding hearings this summer. guest: there have been legal cases about whether folks adjacent or participated on january 6, 20 21 could be on the ballot. those cases have not been successful. that has been an issue that has come up in the courts. host: pennsylvania voters calling in a bit this morning. republican, go ahead. caller: good morning. i am in southwestern pennsylvania. 50 years ago, 80% share of the population. now, it might be 50-50. a friend of mine told me, it might be 60-40, the other way around. the lifelong democrat took a toll on them, fentanyl and crime has taken a toll on them. i am thinking locally that the democrat party, they need their own faith, if you will. that is my comment. guest: southwest pennsylvania is where you have seen a lot of political realignment in the years. some of the places -- eastern ohio, a lot of those places have fallen away from democrats, the state of west virginia is a great example. west virginia voted for the caucus in 1988. h w bush. in 2000, west virginia had voted for's -- bush's son. democrats have had this problem in appalachia, appalachia touches a lot of competitive states, whether it be pennsylvania, ohio, north carolina is another one. the democrats have been gaining in affluent, diverse, highly educated, suburban areas. they have been losing in white her -- whiter, rural grounds. you go back historically and look at, hooted franklin roosevelt bring into the democratic party win -- when he created the democratic -- modern democratic party, the modern welfare state, the conception of government being a bigger force of people's lives. you look where roosevelt improved on past democratic performance, places where -- very working-class, very ethnic, a lot of new immigration, you find a lot of those places in steel towns, a lot of heavy industry. until trump in 2016, flipped. an interesting thing where you have these working-class places that i think are struggling now who historically were linked to the working class party, that has changed. there is the opportunity for soul-searching on both sides of the aisle. i think i'm have to think about, why did those places move away? there are a lot of places like that in competitive states, it makes a difference in close elections. host: is somebody going to go back and say, that is how donald trump made the modern republican party? guest: roosevelt one those landslides nationally, trump won the electoral college 2016. you can look at some places where obama won by 30 points, mahone county. mahoning county went to three points in clinton, trump won it in 2020. her are similar places dotted across the midwest. there is this political science thing about critical elections, realigning elections. there have been holes poked in that scholarship. there are elections you can look at historically and say things have changed for a long time. i think voting patterns that changed in 2016 are going to be with us for a long time. host: colorado, julie, independent. good morning. caller: good morning. i have a bachelors degree in political science. i used to be an instructor at the university here. i would have loved to have taken a class under -- a political science class. second, my question is, i live in lauren boebert's district. if you follow her, she ran the first time for congress, she refused to debate the democratic candidate because she couldn't get the questions ahead of time. i'm wondering, what -- is for ms. boebert, she is in the republican primary. last i saw, five candidates running against her. if he has any idea of ms. scholl will win the democratic primary, or somebody else. this is a swing district. i have lived here all my life. we have elected democrats and republicans. i do not vote a i wonder what your thoughts are, thank you class last shout out there to larry sabado >> as for colorado's three, it's a district joe biden or donald trump one by eight or nine points so it's significantly more republicans than the nation as a whole and it's not the kind of district democrats have one that often in recent years all that's expected to have some sort of republican lee. madison cloth earned who like boebert is a rabble-rouser but has had more problems. it seems like there's so some new damning story that would come out about cawthorne every day whereas boebert hasn't had thoseproblems . i will say when boebert one in 2020 and her primary she came out of nowhere. erso you never know but. >> denise in illinois, independent, your next. >> go ahead, you're on. >> caller: i'm calling about the republican party, the dirty little boy party that's been running this country way too long. more than about a year ago most of the dirty little white boys were very anxious to praise vladimir putin up one side and down the other they wanted to live in russia with tucker carlson . that's really pathetic. >> the war in ukraine and whether you think it's going to have much influence on the midterm elections. >> i would say probably not. obviously it's still getting a lot of attention and a lot of attention from the public although not as much as it was but certainly a lot of attention from official washington but if you look at there was not really any sort of rally around the flag effect for biting . public opinion of ukraine has been mixed or fairly negative just like biden's approval rating has been negative. i don't think that ukraine will have that big of a bearing. >> congressman tim ryan running in ohio. we find it important enough to spend money on two notches dental election opponent jd vance taover some of his comments about ukraine. here's one of tim ryan's responses. >> i don't reallycare what happens to ukraine one way or another . >>. [music] >> i don't care what happens to ukraine one way oranother . >> guest: this did come up in the primary for u.s. senate in ohio but suzanne ended up winning. but so i guess you could say it didn't necessarily hurt them all that much in that primary although it was a splintered field. the late trump endorsement was important in fans winning. interestingly enough there is i think of ohio as being a particularly diverse place but there's a lot of different eastern european enclaves in northeast ohio and one of them is people with ukrainian dissent in northeast ohio so if you're up there you see a lot of ukrainian flags and that kind of thing and some of those places are places where trump did well or better than republicans did pass tim ryan is going to win he needs to claw back some ancestral democrats and maybe he sees the ukraine issue as being one piece of that. >> host: if he's going to win how you read that race? >> we call the ohio senate race likely republican. it's safe likely, lead or cost of self tossup is obviously the mostcompetitive . we see that as a considerable favorite but we sort of leave open the possibility ryan could swing and upset depending on how the wrist develops. >> center for politics.org is where you can check all those race ratings and you do them for the house and senate and gubernatorial election . >> evanston illinois, 50 a democrat. >> i want to ask a three-part question. i want to ask why do the democrats keep winning the popular vote if you say that they're kind of losing their in popularity. and then i want to askanother part to that question . if that is the case then why are the republicans continuing to create all this voter suppression ifthey have all the votes . because voi was always taught you go by behavior, not by what people say that their behavior and behavior shows you they must not be getting the votes they need to win if they have to engage in that early humans and western pennsylvania. i used to live there. and i noticed that when you said talk about the votes democrats are losing that be because the unions s,are gone and the steel mills neare gone and the demographics have changed anyway? could you answer that, i'll appreciate it. >> host: you got this? >> let me start with the final question about the decline of labor. that's definitely an issue for democrats in some places that have been struggling in recent years and have lost heavyindustry. i think as sort of a social organization , unions were helped deliver the message i guess for democrats for lack of a better way of putting it and sort of i think a lot of voters in those kinds of places the western pa or eastern ohio you have voters who maybe are socially conservative but economically liberal and prounion or were in the union so the union healthmore of those people to the democratic party and now the unions are gone . so those voters are maybe more open to voting republican now and maybe more on their social cultural leanings as opposed to their economic leanings. as for the popular vote, the democrats have won the popular vote in every election since one but one is 1988. george hw bush won the popular vote in 88, clinton one once, george w. bush did win in 2004 and democrats have evwon the popular vote ever sense but the margins are sometimes narrow where there close to residential competitive elections and as i said the democrats have lost a lot of voters also been picking up a lot of voters to and you see the changes going on in the various rte coalitions. the sort of structural problem from the democrats is if you look at the decisive median electoral college states the median seat in the senate n and also the median house seat which i mentioned earlier there all republican than the nation as a whole so there's this structural advantage for republicans. i guess you could blame the house a little bit on gerrymandering . in favor of the republicans but to some degree but the senate and electoral college that's based on the states and i guess you could say the states are gerrymandered but they're not drawn every 10 years . >> time for one morecall, this is jerry . jerry in turkey. landon, >> just want to make some comments. the chinese have a system and so have the russians surprised that didn't use against ukraine . the way wars are going to be fought is through high-altitude electromagnetic pulse. it was somethingdeveloped by the us after world war ii . >> a topic for another time but final thoughts as we head into another primary day and as we look ahead to the june primary, what are yougoing to be watching for ? >> i'm curious what the turnout is. it's favorable to republicans in past primaries and just an overall point. again midterms usually run against the president's party. joe biden's popularity is fairly weak and it's been so since late summer of 2021. and there are going to be developments that happen every day that you think is this going to change the political calculus? the potential role versus wade decision could be one of those things. but it's possible that effectively here and that the republicans are just ahead and they're going to stay ahead until the election and that it's a question of how well do they do. that's often how it goes in midterms, not always but often. so don't necessarily assume that big blockbuster developments will move the needle politically because the president's approval doesn't move all that much. the midterm effect is pretty strong . just keep that in mind. >> host: when do we know when the cake is baked or not? >> the way some forecasting models work one of the metrics they take is second-quarter gdp which we won't know until the summer but that's an economic metric . it suggested is not third-quarter gdp, before the election but more in the summertime erbecause whatever people's perceptions are of the state of the country they may not be updated by the time the election happens. even if things get better for the economy and gas prices and inflation what people are thinking about now might inform their choices later on as opposed to what's going on in the fall. again it's hard to know but the trajectory of these things is that heif it's looking bad for one party in a midterm environment that kind of generally doesn't change all that much by the time we get to the election. >> managing editor of sabado crystal ball, his book again along red thread, how democratic dominance gave way to republican advantage in us council elections. good tosee you . >> the senate in recess until 2:15 eastern for their party party caucus lunches. today lawmakers considering a number of bidens judicial nominations. 2:30 eastern senators expected to vote on whether the conference anthony davis to the court of appeals judge for the sixth circuit. don't want to advance the nomination of darrell lindenbaum to be a member of the federal election commission and coming up later lawmakers expected to vote on whether to begin debate on domestic terrorism legislation after the recent mass shooting in buffalo new york.as always you can follow live coverage of the senate when they return here on c-span2. >> c-span brings you an unfiltered view of government . word for word recaps today from the halls of congress to daily press briefings to remarks from the president. scan the code at the right bottom to sign up for this email and stay up-to-date on everything happening in washington each day . subscribe today using the code or visit connect to subscribe anytime.>> we bring you the latest from the president and other white house officials, pentagon and state department as well as congress. we also have international perspectives from the united nations and statements from foreign leaders . on thenetworks . the three mobile and ukraine, our web resource page where you can watch thelatest videos on demand and follow tweets from journalists on the ground go to c-span.org/ukraine . >> during the world economic forum discussion a group of us lawmakers talk about financial aid to ukraine . amid russia's invasion of the country from the host switzerlandthis is about 50 minutes . >> good afternoon everyone. i am