leon panetta will replace robert gates as secretary of defense. that when gates retires later this summer. general petraeus comes home from afghanistan to fill panetta's open slot as the cia. and petraeus' former deputy at general command general john allen will take over as top commander in afghanistan. the bottom line, a u.s. military general will now be running the cia. and a cia guy will be our new secretary of defense. the game of musical chairs still subject to congressional confirmation hearings but with no new faces entering the mix how if at all will a change in seats, a change policy, and military strategy abroad? joining us now lieutenant colonel anthony schafer, director at the center for advanced defense studies, also author of the book "operation dark heart" which was censored by the pentagon. also with us, washington post columnist david ignacias. look at what he had to say about all of this a long time ago, back in march, before anyone was talking about it. >> this is the prediction which is that leon panetta will go to defense to replace secretary gates leaving in the summer and that general petraeus will come back from kabul to become the next cia director. >> so, foresight to say the least from him. tony, i would like to begin, however, with you. specifically on the department of defense. it is so easy to get lost in the weeds with all of this but the real headline is that america is going to have a new secretary of defense, a new person in charge of the pentagon at a time when our budget is massive. we spend as much money on our defense as the next 19 countries in the world combined. how are we to interpret the decision to put a cia director in charge of the pentagon? >> well, i think mr. panetta's being hired because of his deeper background relating to budget and i have seen a lot of talk about the fact he's been compared to clark clifford coming in gnthe nam vietnam era. cap wineberger had a reputation of being a cost cutter but chartered to win the war. my concern here is the record at cia has not been stellar and in my earlier preinterview with your folks i talked about the fact it's bob nardeli ceo of home depot hired to chrysler. i'm not convinced that someone without the best record in one organization with five times the responsibility is a good move. >> david srks that the right interpretation, though, that this is a set-up for potential budget cutting and a major overhaul at the pentagon or leaping to conclusions? >> no, i think that major reason why secretary gates recommended panetta as a successor is panetta's background in budget issues, chief of staff at the white house, budget director. i also think it's a little strong to say that panetta ran the cia into the ground. that's a tough job but from what i hear panetta was generally good for cia morale. he thought cia's battles on the hill and within the administration fairly successfully. i think, you know, he is a senior player. obama wants a team of people who are strong personalities and the fact that gates recommended panetta so strongly is decisi decisively. >> if we rep s ep the opening day interpretation of a budget cutting at the pentagon which is welcome for a variety of deficit hawks, the other issue as we stay on defense and i will get to intelligence but as we stay on defense is does the withdrawal of general petraeus from the theater of war in afghanistan open the door for an easier withdrawal politically or rhetorically from the middle east, or is that, again, leaping to conclusions, tony? >> i think we are on a path to so-called decent interval and take very hard looks at what we are trying to achieve and i think some very hard realities that -- look. i admire general petraeus. he's a great guy. let's use the house metaphor. he built a great house and every stick of wood is infected with termites and leaving the issue is pakistan and may be the upside of it. the real battle in pakistan waged by cia and may be the one upside. >> and creates the segue i was heading to, david. does the decision moving away from the department of defense and wars and looking at the new cia, a cia run by a commanding general in the middle east, is tony's interpretation the right one, the cia will now become a paramilitary organization focusing on pakistan under the guidance of a former military general? is that right? >> the cia is a paramilitary organization. it has those capabilities. i think this is a signal that the administration is serious about the exit ramp, declining numbers of uniform military personnel starting this july. i think within a year we'll see all of the 30,000 person surge out of afghanistan. and i think that general petraeus in his new role at cia will have oversight of predator drones, of operations, personnel on the ground. this will move in afghanistan and to the extent possible in pakistan to a paramilitary opposed to a uniform military campaign over two or three years. >> david, the type of policy discussions seem like they have a certain level of political appeal, certainly support for reducing the public war in the middle east and seems that's possible. there's certainly public support for reduced defense spending which is being interpreted or offered up as such in this transition and there seems to be a certain amount of support for an amplification or an aggressive use of intelligence and predator drones to deal with pakistan, all three of those appear to be in this interpretation. am i missing something? >> no. i think you said it right. i think this is an administration -- when i talked to the white house, talking to people at the pentagon, what i hear is that they want this era of expeditionary wars in which tens of thousands of american troops are sent abroad to fight in iraq, afghanistan, they want that period to end and that's replaced by growing use of cia, paramilitary forces. >> which then brings us i guess to the final interpretation, tony, how blurry is the line when you can switch the general and put him in terms of the cia and take the cia guy and put him in charge of the pentagon? how blurry's the line between the military and american intelligence and is that a good or a bad thing and how are we to know? >> well, i think that jury's out for a while. i have worked on both sides. i think mr. vickers coming over from cia who's now the senior intelligence officer for the pentagon, he was well-known in charlie wilson's war for being one of the guys working at cia and the influence is increasing and the pentagon cross pollination going on. frankly we have talked about this before on your show. the big footprint of forces forward isn't helping us and i think it's time to be smarter about the application of deadly force and a good move in many ways. >> the one skepticism or concern and i'm sure we'll talk about this later in the program, david, is what is the -- what are with to think of a world where the public war may be diminishing but the secret war being waged by the cia may be increasing? >> well, we should think is that congressional oversight of intelligence activities needs to be extremely vigorous. it's going to be really important to keep a close eye on general petraeus. he's creative and needs oversight. >> absolutely. >> congress has to step up. that's part of the deal here. >> how do you create oversight for a deliberately secretive organization? >> we have mechanism we have deinvolved over time the rules. the rules are there. the procedures are there. they have to be followed and people, members of congress will have to take it seriously now. >> tony, what are your thoughts? >> absolutely. i've run very -- what they call black operations and i had to have congressional oversight in the form of investigations everything i was doing every year. there's mechanisms there. they have to be picked up and used. you cannot ignore them. they're there for the benefit of the people running it and the congressional oversight guys being sure the money is spent properly. >> before you go, for the benefit of somebody like myself, who is it in congress that needs to be doing this such that somebody like myself can harass them as such, david? >> the chairman of the house and senate intelligence committees and the ranking members and the other senior congressional leadership. so-called gang of eight. they know all the secrets and they have to police them and ride herd for the nation because the public won't know and shouldn't know. they will and they have to do their job. >> thank you for the analysis and helping to educate us and see through some of the musical chairs, gentlemen. david, a pleasure. tony, it is always a pleasure. thank you, guys. we'll take a little bit of a break here. coming up as we just mentioned, the mill tarization of america, particularly the intelligence agency. we have the story you probably have not heard about this latest game of white house musical chairs. plus, is the president now the one who refuses to let the birther debate die? keeps bringing it upality fund-raisers. we'll ask our mega panel, susan, karen and jimmy on deck. along with a royal gamble. only thing more fun than a royal wedding ask o inding is one you. we'll get the line on whether martin bashir will be the first to cry when he joins us a little later. 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let's keep it compartmentalized. first on the defense side. the interpretation is opens the door for budget cuts, maybe makes it easier for the withdrawals. this would seem to be a political net positive for the president if, in fact, those interpretations play out. >> listen, leon panetta will be great over at the pentagon. i'll tell you why. because when he was a member of congress was when they balanced the budget so i'm thrilled that he's going over there. i hope he slashes like hell. i hope she strehe streamlines a it more efficient and gets the troops out. >> the other side, susan, apparently the ability to escalate the secret side of the war and we heard david say learn the chair people for the house intelligence committee and the senate intelligence committee because a former general now running the cia is going to be potentially very active and we're not going to have nearly as much information as we once did. how do you look at that possibility? >> well, it's certainly an interesting melding of his military background now into the cia. it's also going to be interesting how he's going to be able to, quote, command there. as far as, you know, no longer having troops to oversee but civilians which is another big difference but when's good about the appointments that were made today and good for the country is that we probably will not see any partisanship here. i think you will get a lot of support from republicans and democrats and, in fact, may be the last bipartisan thing we see washington do in a long time. >> do agree, karen? >> from susan's lips to god's ears. i certainly hope. the one thing i think to susan's point that's important is panetta and general petraeus command a tremendous amount of respect both from the national security teams, from the sort of national security community, as well as from congress. so i think these moves for that reason i think will help also ensure that the president can have some continuity, you know, i read somewhere that the president decided to basically continue on the path along the decision that is he's already made, not necessarily signal kind of a shift. so i think that's part of what we should read into this. >> we'll set down the defense conversation for time being and bring it up later talking about bradley manning but while i have you i feel like i have no choice but to bring up the birther debate. not because i want to but the president keeps bringing it up. listen to the president. >> my name's barack obama. i was born in hawaii. the 50th state. of the united states of america. can i just say i was there? so i knew that i knew had been born. i remembered it. >> susan, is the president now perpetuating this absurdity? >> yeah. i don't know why he took it this far. he did have, frankly, a win on the issue and could have let it die down. obviously they think it's a bigger win than most of us looking at it think it is but they decided to play it up. i'm not sure when he said he wanted to work on more serious things going to tape oprah was the transition he wanted to make. >> jimmy, is that a fair criticism? >> no, it is not. >> of course not. >> susan, if you had the chance to go on oprah, would you go? the answer is yes. and so would i and anybody else. >> he's the president. >> you're right. he's the president and he gets to go on oprah. you know what? that's the beauty of oprah. she doesn't have to let him. it's simple. the guy won on the birther issue. racists all across this country, i said it, racist. everywhere. the north, in the south, in the midwest and california. everywhere. who still don't believe it, are still going to spout it and every time they do i want the president to respond. it is a winning issue. when you're winning, keep winning. >> at the end of the day, do you agree, karen? i say, hang on. i thought we were supposed to be worried about jobs or the banking system or maybe health care or how about the fact that we blow two thirds of the energy that we consume in this country out the windows of our houses? and yet both political parties willing to play wrestling games with birtherism. >> dylan, you're right. you and i both know as jimmy said, racism and prejudice still exist in america and i think the deeper issue that we shouldn't get distracted from, two points on the sort of cultural side. there are people who -- it is not about the birth certificate, guys. it is about using that as a way to question the otherness. >> correct. >> and a level of discomfort with the fact that the world is changing. my mother used to carry my birth certificate in her wallet because she's white and i'm not and she would be worried that something would happen me. the idea of mixed race kids, kind of a new idea and people who are very afraid of the way that the country is changing. that's the cultural reality. on the other side on the political side, let's be clear. the rnc and the gop really, you know, should take some lumps for this because every single time they were asked about this and they said, well, i take him at his word, that's a load of crap. to do away with that issue is say, of course, he is an american citizen. let's move on. >> my favorite -- >> couldn't agree with you more, as a republican. >> my favorite statistic, i mentioned this yesterday. according to nate silver, 46% of americans are certain donald trump was born here. >> they might be right. >> here meaning this planet, dylan? >> no, we wouldn't know. we can't find out the answer to that question. that's a pleasure to see you guys. thank you very much. we're going to keep karen, susan and jimmy around for part two, the real solution to the pain at the pump. the specialist joins the conversation and why he says none of the ideas out there will lower our soaring costs but his idea will, after this. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ introducing purina one beyond a new food for your cat or dog. explorers... great thinkers. they're the future of america, so let's build them up strong, and give them our cheese. kraft singles american cheese. we're always made with milk. and more kids get their calcium from us than any other american cheese. the future of our country is in their hands. hey look it's the future senator from wisconsin. kraft singles. the american cheese. yeah, let's check out the horses under the hood! show me the carfax. show me the carfax. horsepower, foxpower, same thing. just show me the carfax. before you buy a used car, get a carfax vehicle history report. see accidents and service reported to carfax... and a price based on the car's history. free, at thousands of reputable dealers. just say, show me the carfax. high gas prices obviously taking a bite out of consumers' wallets. padding the coffers of the world's largest oil companies and many investors big and small. profits for instance at exxon mobl up 70% in the first quarter, $11 billion for them, similarly at shell, profits up 30%, more than $6 billion. conoco phillips, bp also reporting billions in profit. rising prices, typically provoke outrage, but few people have a real understanding of why prices rise so far so fast and more importantly what actual tools are at our disposal to bring them down to more affordable levels now. which brings us to today's specialist. dan dicker, oil trader and author of "oil's endless bid," our panel also rejoins us. karen, susan and jimmy. your basic idea is what? >> the basic idea, dylan, is that supply and demand fundamentals have been overrun by investment money or speculative money, if you like, that's trying to chase hard assets, particularly oil, and trying to capture what is a rising price in oil but, in fact, fueling the fire. because the more buyers you get rushing in to try to buy oil the higher the prices naturally go. >> talk about this. i'll use myself as an example. so i have a small investment portfolio that i've tried to keep track of in a way i don't have to pay too much attention to it working here all the time and one of the things that i have done is buy the u.s.o. which is an oil etf and other commodity etfs. i'm not alone, a lot of people taking some of the savings and putting them in to these hard commodities opposed to more traditional active investing into the stock market, apple computer, whatever it might be. what's wrong with a guy like me doing something like that? >> well, the problem, of course srks that there's two problems. it hypes the price. >> you have a bunch of people like me buying oil when i have no interest in using the oil. >> exactly. the bottom line is, if you had, for example, houses and certain number of houses but all of a sudden everybody wants to buy a house over there -- >> just because they think they're worth more money, not because they want to live in them. >> because i want a house on that street for another house i own somewhere and this house may only be worth $100,000 but what if i really want it badly enough? the only way to get an owner out is to pay for it. >> your argument is unless you have the intention to use the oil, or to use the corn or whatever it is we're talking about, that only those types of people should be allowed to buy commodities because you get the price distortions from people like me and bigger than me purely buying oil as a financial speculation and no use for it whatsoever. >> precisely. you need to have some kind of connection to the physical asset itself in order to be allowed access to the financial instrument that is are associated with it. >> james, go ahead. >> dan, i have a question. maybe i'm just -- i think there's a disconnect here and let me ask my question and then you can company what i'm trying to get at. you're saying i have to be able to be invested in it. so if i have toyota stock, i need to own toyotas. if i have apple stock, i have to own an ipad. complain to me why -- i own an ipad and two toyotas but why is it that if somebody goes out on the open market and trades, buys and sells and trades an oil commodity, tell me in the plainest terms you can how does that actually affect the price at the pump at the amoco station in virginia? because i don't think anybody gets that. can you explain that to me? >> what's happened over the course of the last ten years and particularly the last five is financial instruments associated with oil more important than the physical markets associated with oil. >> people may not realize this. there's etfs and funds. >> they're 30 times larger than etfs. >> to make us easy for investors -- >> pension funds, everybody. >> to buy oil without having to be on the commodity floor buying oil. continue. >> you try to buy all of these paper barrels of oil and the bottom line is every time you buy them you send the price higher to find somebody willing to sell oil to you and to do that is to pay for it and then more outrageous price for it. and that's why you see oil become sort of a self fulfilling prophesy. the higher the price the price goes. >> susan? >> yeah. yesterday, ben bernanke said and i was rather surprised to hear him say this, that the price will start going down once the middle east stabilize a little bit. now, i don't think anyone thinks the middle east will stabilize any time soon. so that being said, what else -- what else can be done, you know, that we can do as a country t start stabilizing the prices? >> two things. one fincial thing that we could do and it's going to happen anyway is end of qe2 and remove some of the free money trade that's been driving money into oil. that's number one. my other suggestion is more draconian and asks for a ban on long only commodity funds, the indexes, a ban on the commodity etfs that use futures. >> all commodities? >> yes. well no. oil is much more important. it's more than 50% of all of the stocks on the new york stock exchange on dependent as a primary input cost on oil and we are all if we're food, for drugs, for plastics, for heat. for aluminum. of course gas and our transportation. we are so engaged in oil that the place to start to take control of these out of control come modify markets i believe is in the oil markets first and go to try to ban some of these instrument that is are clearly doing nothing good and by the way not doing anything good for investors because they're a horrible proxy for the crude price. if you hope to capture the 36 or 37% that oil is up for the year you are in bad shape because you've only captured from an etf 8%. it's even bad for the investors engaged in that. >> i can atus to that. karen, go ahead. >> this is mott my area but see if i followed the conversation thus far. >> it's good you're here. >> i'm the every woman. >> play every woman. >> as i understand it, what you're saying is the fact there's more money available to this market is part of what's driving up the prices so that suggests to me when we talk about taxpayer-funded subsidies to oil company that is are showing record profits perhaps if we take away those taxpay taxpayer-funded subsidies we not only get that money back but perhaps it means less money into the market and does that mean prices go down? >> well, susan, i mean -- >> karen. >> i'm sorry. the subsidies are really a drop in the bucket. $4 billion a year for all of oil. it affects independent oil more than it affects big oil and a political football. it's part of all of these kind of solutions that really don't have a solution releasing from the spr, trying to remove subsidies. none of this really gets at the problem of gas prices going up and people getting hosed at the pumps. >> you are saying there's an impure buyer, there's an ill-intended buyer not by being bad people but by virtue they're acquiring a vital asset as a speculative event as opposed to -- and become easier for anybody to do that because of financial innovation. >> they're trying to capture a price that's clearly going up and a profit to be made from trying to capture that price. simple as that. >> quickly. >> dylan, dan, so are you advocating, dan, to basically shut down the chicago exchanges? >> no, no, no, no. this is not about the futures markets. that's operating fine. it is the derivatively based commodity etf has are behemoth. >> the exchange, the things to let you trade oil or corn like a stock -- >> for people who are hedging legitimately, it's legitimate. >> not saying that the oil traders, the airlines, the chemical companies that use the merck, he's saying they're the people to be creating the pure price and getting distorted by the fact that the investor class, the retail and institutional investor class is allocating oil to offer a return and distorting the price for everybody else. it's a pleasure to see you, dan, jals, susan, karen. coming up here today, the storm system behind those deadly tornadoes. still on the move at this hour. where is it headed? 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[ male announcer ] talk to your doctor to find out if chantix is right for you. learn about the chantix challenge. chantix may not work for everyone. if you aren't quit after 12 weeks, we'll refund your cost of trying it. learn more at chantix.com. as you may have heard, the army today opening the doors to bradley manning's new digs. reporters visiting the home in kansas. however, no pictures or video were allowed. we have just learned that manning will be there beginning tomorrow. this while he awaits trial on nearly two dozen including aiding the enemy. the pr offensive, of course, in response to allegations of mistreatment at quantico in virginia. at the worst, torture on par with the treatment of the american gulag in guantanamo. either way, supporters claim they'll keep a close eye on the case until they're sure he is being treated properly. manning also may be the focus of a grand jury investigation that includes the man at the center of the wikileaks scandal for violations of the espionage act. joining us is glen greenwald among the most aggressive and accurate reporters on the developments. a pleasure to have you back in the room. first, broadly, how do you interpret the move? >> clearly, designed as a growing charge over the protest. the u.n. official invest gatding it and, of course, the state department spokesman forced to resign condemning it as stupid and other things. it was a growing scandal for that president on a platform of ending detainee abuse to have this growing. >> there is a uniform code of military justice. one of the statutes in it says that the individual should be held up to and only up to the point necessary for the security. it was clear that that was -- had been exceeded here. is there any reason to think that the actual treatment of broadly manning at a different prison will be different? >> well, you are right. article xiii makes ate criminal offense to punished detainee. clearly, many of the things done to him were punitive. government officials said so. the question now becomes what will the treatment be? the justification for defenders of the administration for why he was kept in 23-hour a day solitary confinement and not allowed to exercise in the cell for his own protection. if you let him out into a population of marines that he would be attacked perhaps lethally and now going to circulate more in the population. what happened to that excuse? >> what's the answer to that question? >> i don't know. the only logical answer is that this claim that it was being done for his own protection is deceitful. that isn't a concern because quantico is much more controllable than fort leavenworth is. it was done as a warning to future would be whistle-blowers. this will happen to you and a means to break him to induce and extract testimony against the real target. >> and then the last manning question and then the cia is do you have any sense as to whether anybody intends to bring charges against either the marines or the pentagon or the government for their violation of article xiii? >> absolutely, manning's counsel said notwithstanding move and doesn't know how he will be treated there and intends to pursue the charges. he is a retired lieutenant contr colonel and offended and the amnesty and u.n. investigations will continue, as well. >> let's move to the musical chairs. you have written extensively about the constitutional violations that have been perpetrated in this country, in the name of our national defense going back a decade. among the criticisms that have been out there was the decision to put a military commander in charge of the cia under the bush administration and the democrats at that time and you were just describing to me in the commercial up in arms, outrageous, we can't have a militarized cia, one of the most vocal critics is the chairman of the senate intelligence committee dianne feinstein, now we find that democrats with dianne feinstein at the senate intelligence committee and barack obama in the white house putting yet another general in charge of the central intelligence agency. >> the list of policies that the democrat s objected to in the bush years and now embrace and justify and support as their own is almost endless. you could spend hours and hours and hours on television listing and describing them all. this is yet another one. not only did she say it was dangerous to have a four-star general running the cia, joe biden said it would mean that the cia gets quote gobbled up by the defense department and the idea to provide a check against the military which always is pro-war and drives to war and provide independent analysis and yet here you have the commander in chief advocate of not only the public war in afghanistan but the covert war in pakistan now in charge of the intelligence that the president will receive as to what policies ought to be continued. the democrats were right when they argued that bush was doing something improper appointed general hayden and same arguments should be made now. >> at the same time, we have watched the president go into libya without ever even acknowledging congress's existence. george bush at the very least paid lip service to the need to at least spend half a morning with the u.s. congress. is it as bad as it looks? again, i don't feel like i know the information looking at the ins and outs of american defense policy, i know that i don't, but i know i'm matwatching the majo intersections. >> a purpose is wars are now fought of the cia. they don't just engage intelligence to support wars. they act operationally as part of the war. that's always been true. overthrown governments and done things along those lines but the drone wham for the war in pakistan, yemen, libya, run through the cia and lets president obama run our secret war that is are already covert anyway and do so with almost no accountable with general petraeus at the cia and entirely immunized from oversight and certainly from public accountability and what you see is with, for example, starting of the war in libya without authorization and barely any debate and the wars that most americans don't know are taking place is this growing militarization of the cia in removing it from the apparatuses of democratic accountability. >> very quickly, again, for the longest time the democratic party was seen as the party of resistance, advocating many of the policies you just described and clear that the gop with the exception of perhaps ron paul and that faction of the republican party, there appears to be no one in the two-party political system that's odd voluntary kating for basic democratic principles. >> as you say, these were part sal principles. now that they're obama's policies, as well. they become consensus and barely debated name and the objections of democrat s eroded away. sunny and optimistic note. >> on that note, are you a betting man? do you like to bet? >> i do, actually. >> we haven't really been super into the royal wedding around here and figured maybe if we checked the betting line on the wedding -- >> right. >> -- we could make it interesting. so you're welcome to stick around. i'm going to show the line on everything from -- you can make 1,000-1 if he wears a red dress. >> great opportunity. >> i'll show you the odds if you're interesting in placing bets. >> how could i not be? >> think of me as dylan the book bookie. coming up on "hardball" the birther issue may be still here. but first, even if you're not into the royal wedding, maybe you're into betting on the color of the dress. i'll play bookie right after this. make a wish! oh. ooh. happy birthday todd. it's for a cough... from allergies... 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[ female announcer ] phillips' colon health. as you may well know by now, it is the final countdown to the royal wedding and we have decided only way to get excited about this british shindig is to make money off of it. why should the english be the only ones cashing? msnbc's martin bashir is helping us bet the wedding. martin, i'll play bookie if you don't mind. >> please do. >> you can be my betting advocate. are you ready, sir? >> not particularly. i have never betted on anything in my life and never even bought a lottery ticket. i'll help you with the odds. >> i believe you're a man with conviction and insight and i believe conviction and insight will be very useful for my wagering beginning with the following. what color will hate's dress be? the odds on favorite is that it's ivory. $25 for a dollar if it's white. look at this. she comes out with a silver dress, martin, we are in the money. and if you really want to bet the dark horse, $1,000 for a dollar bet if kate wears a red dress. do you think the bookie has it right? we should move away from this bet? >> dylan, for a man of your intellectual capabilities, that is a nonsense. what you need to be doing is wagering on the color of the queen's hat. >> i've got that. >> that is much more difficult to predict. >> all right. here we go. fine. >> that book i wouldn't bother with. >> skip the dress. let's go to the queen's hat. much more interesting hat as my wedding expert and betting expert martin bashir advised me. $7 if it's yellow. $17 if it's blue. she busts out the pink and we're certain to get paid, martin. interestingly, if white hat pays extraordinarily well and a black hat to figure is completely off the radar, i mean, i have most feeling to pay more and what do you think between yellow and light blue an pink? >> two weeks ago, because the weather was very warm here, everybody was hedging towards the yellow. but at the moment, it's in the mid-50s here. it's actually started to rain a bit. and so, people are beginning to hedge more towards the blue. so i think on that one, put your money on the blue. i think you're going to be surprised. a lot of the bookies were talking to journalists in the city here saying, oh, it is definitely going to be yellow. to wind up the bets on the yellow and i think they realize if the weather's cold, the queen tends to wear light blue. >> two more very quickly. length of the first kiss, 0 to 3 second, 3 to 67 seconds, $13. 6 to 10 pays $55 and if the two of them start smooching more than a minute, i'm taking you to the caribbean, martin. what do you like in this? >> i think you are looking at a fairly short three to six seconds. you have to build on precedent and the precedent is that the royal family tends to pucker up fairly quickly in public. and very rarely generally except for occasions like this. >> yeah. >> so i think you are looking at between three and six seconds. >> finally, may be the most compelling bet of the day, who at the wedding at westminster abbey, a magnificent wedding, will be the first to cry. will it be the mother of bride? the bride herself, $25 for a $10 bet. elton john, $80. prince harry, $250. or the odds on favorite, even money -- >> this is ludicrous. dylan, you failed to include john boehner. he comes in at .5 of a second. he wins you the money! boehner is your man! he may not