and later tonight, president trump delivers his state of the bloomberg learns the u.s. democratic party will not be union address amid the final releasing the results of the iowa caucus for hours to come. stage of the impeachment inquiry. we should probably throw in the things to watch as a result of a death from the coronavirus is reported in hong kong, as the the iowa caucus, as those results have now been delayed. u.s. says it is prepared for a joining us still from geneva is possible pandemic. but the stocks in general regain vasileios gkionakis, global head ground as the pboc supports the of fx strategy at banque lombard. market. youtube disappoints in its first ever revenue disclosure, as we were talking how the trade alphabet results miss street deal could be impacted by what we have seen with the coronavirus. let me ask you about the yuan. estimates. the shares dipped in the brodieo slightly after-hours trade. we are getting results as well interrupt you earlier on -- rudy from bp, the oil giant right now saying that net income, adjusted interrupt you earlier on. what do you expect for the chinese currency? billion.e was $2.57 vasileios: i think there is that blows away the streets estimate of $2.17 billion, quite an extensive damage beating the street by $400 million. already priced into the yuan, let's get to annmarie hordern, our intrepid oil reporter, to now that we have seen 7.lar-china just over break down these numbers. beat.ie: it is quite the the fact that we have it even beat on the top end of improvement in trade tensions, estimates, not just the median range. we get this continuation in the bottoming out of the the top number is certainly going to have the company still manufacturing cycle being waiting for a number of headlines to come out. delayed because of the virus outbreak, i think dollar-china one thing in focus for today for the company will be this year goes lower. and, the leverage they bring on. the debt. we have a consensus here and receive dollar-china at 6.70 by they want to keep that between 20% and 30% of this year. the end of the year. it has been about 30%. that is something we will be there are two factors here, one is the chinese factor, which we expect that we are going to get watching. but the top line is doing very the continuation of the chinese well. what a way for after nine years of the company ceo bob dudley, to go out on. manufacturing bottoming out, and it is his final earnings before he gives the helm to burnout at the same time, it is a bearish dollar call. matt: thank you so much for looney -- bernard looney. joining us. really appreciate your time this morning, vasileios gkionakis, difficult to see if there are more questions towards mr. looney today, may be bob dudley global head of fx strategy at banque lombard odier. will let him speak today doing the analyst call. this comes at it has been bob dudley's final set of painted this gloomy picture for earnings run counter to the rest of the industry, following a oil, and of course, what is going on in the macro raft of weak results from his competitors. environment in the oil market. joining us is bps chief this is quite the beat for them. anna: annemarie, thank you so financial officer, brian much. gilvary. he will be speak it to a bp whether don't you tell us first off why bp is doing better than management later on about the numbers climate change and much more. the rest come and why you beat the street by so much? let's talk about where we are on the broader market picture. we see that the european futures good call, 2.6 million look positive. u.s. futures look positive, all taking their cues from this dollars, i think the market was expecting something like 2.1. by the dip session from the asian market. stronger upstream, slightly the chinese markets, what a weaker downstream. difference one session makes. in thetial talk straight fourth quarter, i think the main message was strong operating in the early part of the cash flow. session, chinese stocks lost as much as 2%. then we saw a change of hearts 38.2 billion for the year. and now it is up more than 2.6%. to come downd debt are we seeing prospects of containment being bets upon here by over one billion in the third by markets or is there something quarter and for the fourth quarter, gearing come down. we have announced a full package larger to understand? of disposals. in terms of where we are in terms of 5 billion that we will be doing by mid-2021. it points toward a major over $50 a barrel. deleveraging of the balance sheet, and that is what is we will get to the macro conversation around oil as well. wti, up by 1% in this morning giving them confidence in moving the dividend. anna: good morning, brian. that is exactly where i wanted to go. session. let's get to the market you think that gives you the conversation with our "bloomberg markets" live managing editor, confidence to increase the mark cudmore. dividends a little bit, from i know they have been writing 10.25 to 10 and 50, but perhaps some fairly strong words about ,he outlook with oil prices the extent to which many in the market are really an arising what is going on with the with china being such a big coronas -- really analyzing what consumer of oil, what assumptions have you made about is going on with the coronavirus. the sense of the global economy mark: i think there has been a then, if you are able to lack of willingness to just look increase this dividend? dr. gilvary: we laid out the at the very open information we have got on the virus, whether strategy of $55 a barrel, was it is the evolving mortality the number we set, which is exec rate, the distinction of where we are seeing the deaths, the we wear brent is today. we have seen the benefit of a information we're getting on the higher oil price at the $60-60 transmission rate, or the containment. what is becoming clear is that five dollars range. the situation in hubei is demand over the last decade has terrible, tragic. been 1.5 billion barrels a day but there does seem to be of oil growth. last year we saw quite a bit of containment of the virus. demand. 100,000 barrels a day growth. the measures china has taken has been exceptional. i think there have been two this year, we saw demand growth of around 1.2 million barrels a debts in total -- deaths in total in hubei. day. what you're seeing in terms of the short-term effect on the oil the problem has been very well price is the effect of the coronavirus. we think the virus will have an impact of anywhere from 300,000 barrels a day to 500,000 barrels contained. and i think that is why global a day. markets can start moving beyond opec,k all eyes lead to this issue. over all i think there is a bigger message to be taken from that analysis. as to whether "look to rebalance themarket to get back to it shows investors have given up on the idea of looking at $60-60 five dollars range. fundamentals and facts. but where brent is today's the bull market has gone on for so long that people have become pretty much where our resigned about, how do we look at valuations? assumptions were laid out. doesn't seem like valuations anna: it is still higher than he wanted to be. matter. people are trading off sentiment. dr. gilvary: it is, but i think buy theere saying, the big message is, that $10 billion package of disposals we'd said we would do in 2019 dip. others were going, this is the and 2020, the balance of start of the end, stocks are proceeds will arrive this year. undervalued. and along with the $5 billion that, whileuse of package for 2021, it gives us that size becomes the most important factor and the signs cushioning for this year. matt: the coronavirus wouldn't there for the massive pile of have been visible in the last negative yielding debt, which has grown quite a bit in the last couple of weeks is that there is abundant liquidity in quarter's earnings, but what are you seeing right now, brian? the system still, a good sign it strikes me that with this amount of people quarantined for global stocks overall. with this amount of travel it doesn't mean that the economic impact in china will not be massive. -- ited, it must lower it is probably being underestimated. but that is not what stocks are trading off at the moment. matt: interesting. what you are saying is that must lower demand substantially for gas and oil. brian: right now we are seeing stocks are trading on the human tragedy and not on the economic around 300,000-500,000 dollars a day demand reduction. -- because clearly, you can talk it looks similar to 2003 with about the health side of this sars, similar levels. virus, the physical side of it, we will see how this plays out. or you can talk about the fight the biggest thing you are seeing in terms of brent, flat price in against it and what it will do to the economy. terms of crude prices, we are if you quarantine 50 million or 60 million people, if you put not seeing impact in terms of overall demand, in terms of our off going back to work for week in a country, the second-biggest own system and our own fuel economy in the world, that has networks. but clearly, there will be some impact on aviation, which is got to have huge affects. what we anticipate. the idea that central banks have your back certainly was right now we are seeing something around 300 disproved by the rba decision. ,000-500,000 barrels a day. mark: matt, i think you're absolutely right. matt: how do you expect that to i don't think the rba were hit your trading profits? expected to deliver today. i don't think they are the key player here. tradingyou had a strong but over all, you are right. the economic impact on china is profit in 2019. i wonder also if you could quantify what you mean by that massive. i think people are -- all said, i think it was the underestimating how big the impact will be and how much the impact will be on other --t result in recent memory economies outside china. there is the negative impact cheryl said it was the best result in recent memory. loop, that what slows down the economy in the region slows down oo? that good for you ,tp china.outside that doesn't seem like traders are using facts and analysis. economics requires some look at the data. but that is not what is driving asset prices at the moment. brian: to put it in context, also, the economic story is a 2019 is probably one of the strongest years we have seen in slower playing one. both the oil trading and gas -- people are that trading in the last decade. you have seen that come through the results, particularly in the fourth quarter but also across the year in terms of the aware that was remove the virus out of china, there will be a downstream. massive stimulus to get growth anna: a little more about the dividend and the sustainability of that. up after that, and people don't clearly, the conversation around oil companies is their know how to discount about commitments to climate change and the like. either. the economic story, we will be discussing for many months. can you maintain this kind of dividend? what is the trajectory for the dividend is you have to invest i think six months from now, we will be weighing how much in new technology. impacted will be having. brian: if we move it dividend let analysts are saying that this is just a macro input, not the dominant driver. up, it has to be sustainable going forward. i think by the end of this week, which is what we have laid out virus economics will be just one in today's results. of those inputs in the fringe. anna: mark cudmore, bloomberg 2021, a big series of targets were focused on in terms of market live managing editor delivery, surplus free cash of keeping an eye on everything. the tune of $5 billion or $6 mliv is a function to use on your bloomberg. billion set against an $8 billion dividend in terms of dividend, that is comfortably coming up on the program, we will take a look at your stocks to watch including carlsberg. the company forecast slowing manageable. the energy transition we talk theth this year as of about, and the requirements of big investments in new technology, in terms of dealing with co2, will be important and corona virus outbreak threatens to weigh on beer consumption in asia. we will manage that within our existing financial frame. remember, bloomberg radio is we are very confident that today's dividend is sustainable. live on your mobile device or on dab digital radio in the london matt: i wonder if you would take area. this is bloomberg. a longer-term look at the transition. does it strike you that it will happen sooner than we may have thought? re. psal said that it would get away emissionso2 by 2050. a lot of car companies are saying by 2040, some even saying by 2025. is this all happening at a quicker pace or planned at a quicker pace in the last few months? brian: yes, but we have to start at the base position. today the energy demand is about -- 85% of energy demand is linked to oil, gas and coal, 4% is renewables, 7% hydro. we have 2 billion more people in the planet the next few years who will require an increase in energy. it will be a transition that will be over multi-decades. the crucial part for companies like ours and for the sector is to first and will continue to aow renewables at a faste pace as it can, then reduce co2. if you look at what we laid out 2016,e back of paris in we said we would reduce our own emissions by 3.5 million tons in 2025 we may well have hit that target already by the end of 2019, and we will be close to it after taking out 2.5 million tons by the end of 2018. come will you joinepsal, out and say that you will get rid of co2 emissions completely by 2050? brian: we have to look at this of our products and look at what we can do in terms of technology, what technologies are available to us. looking at dealing with co2 on the back of our investments in there, and we will continue to look across our suite of things. ♪ what we laid out a year ago was to reduce our emissions, improve anna: welcome back to the our products for our customers, european open. 7:10 here in london. and create low carbon opportunities. european markets look likely to we will continue to do that as biuy the dip through the asian we lay out our strategy after 2020 france. anna: is the investment committee putting pressure on session. the u.s. them are credit you on this front? have conversations with iowa caucus -- u.s. democratic iowa caucus results have been shareholders changed in the last 12 months or so? brian: absolutely. in the last five years esg as a, delayed after the party said it found "inconsistencies in the account." a spokesperson has insisted it but really climate. is not due to a hack or intrusion. in the last minute or so, five years ago, that was not on the radar screen. democrats confirmed they will release results later on it has come up in the last 18 months or two years. tuesday. it is front and center. we will get further it is part of our compensation clarification in the last 20 for to -- conversation today and it hours. -- the next 24 hours, it seems. will be part of the conversation going forward. i think investor generally, as do we, want to find a solution very good to have you with us on climate.ssue on set, kathleen. how difficult is it for democrats? the process seems to be a mess. matt: a pleasure having you this morning, thanks for coming in. >> yeah, it wasn't the local brian gilvary is bps chief there were going for. financial officer. after the fourth quarter i think what they were trying to do with i/o was potentially as a party called the field, adjusted net income beat the potentially have these street by 400 million pounds -- candidates will haven't gained as much traction, we often see sorry, $400 million. them drop out after iowa. still no result from the iowa caucuses. the first round in the race to no results toly become the democrat candidate in the election turned to chaos. report at this stage kind of makes everyone i wear. we will get to what impact this aware.yone could have on the democratic in that sense, everyone goes home with a trophy and party. ♪ this is bloomberg. the large field doesn't get smaller. anna: it was pretty surreal. in the early hours of this morning, we had candidates giving speeches that looked as if they were assuming that they had won. giving bits of their victory speeches. the way: because of that caucuses run, it is people gathering at meetingsiv thosehere there are no official results, but i think the candidates in the race do have a sense of how they finished. for those who finished strongly, people like pete buttigieg who feel like they finished strongly than an anticipated, they are giving speeches and looking ahead now to new hampshire. matt: it wasn't anticipated to come in at the top so even if he gets second place, that is good for the buttigieg -- the buttigieg.- pete iowa is a small state, not a great predictor of the winner, so why is this contest so significant? kathleen: it is significant because iowans vote first, there is a sense that whoever gets a "ticket" out of iowa will be a front-runner in the race. often the person finishes in the top three in iowa becomes the candidate who gets the most media attention, seen as becoming the frontrunners of the race. that drives the narrative in washington going forward particularly because there tends to be this gap of about one week between iowa and new hampshire. week, when the public's attention and the attention across the world starts focusing in on the presidential election, all they have to talk about at that stage iowa.t happens in it gives iowa this outside influence in determining at least if not the nominee, who are.nitial front runners anna: kathleen, thank you for joining us with the latest, kathleen hunter, on the iowa anna: welcome back to the european open. caucuses, carrying on a little 7:44 in london. expected.n -- equityquities of we should mention at this point markets are expected to bounce a but michael bloomberg is seeking little. let's get your bloomberg first the democratic nomination. bloomberg is the founder and word news in london. majority owner of bloomberg >> thanks. l.p.. the coronavirus continues to let's get a market perspective spread, with the number of cases on the politics. lascivious the on a case, global topping 20,000. head of fx -- vasileios the first that has been reported in hong kong, only the second fertility outside mainland china gkionakis, global head of fx mbardegy at banque lo -- fertility outside mainland china. officials are evaluating their targets for economic growth for the year and whether they need to be down the back. china is hoping the u.s. will how much of an influence does that have? visitor and to move allow sensibility on their trade deal surges as the virus -- trade deal pledges as the virus the dollar at any point? this -- fish i think growth.hese to affected the phase one contains a possibly of a consultation as "a >> i think in a medium to natural disaster or unforeseen long-term, obviously, it is event delays either side from going to have some impact. --will affect what is going complying." if unclear, china has formally requested -- it is unclear that china has formally requested such a move. who is going to be the democratic nominee, it will affect the shuffling of probabilities between the democrats and republicans. the strength in the labor and property markets give the central bank in china room to the issue i am having here is .ait and see that there are so many moving variables in terms of the fx governor philip lowe says it is too early to see what the generalnd the impact in last. in how long it will on the risk markets. you would think that if you are going to get a more less leading saudi arabian king bin salman discuss the energy markets last night, the latest signal that allies ar