Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Best 20200209 : vimarsan

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Best February 9, 2020



are, it confirms the u.s. economy is in a good spot. ritika: earnings reports come fast and furious. >> we continued the strengthening of customer relationships. >> commercial momentum remains strong. >> important to focus on asset growth at the same time with margin and costs. ritika: while uncertainties loom over the short-term financial outlook, investors and policy makers offer long-term perspective. >> the reality of brexit is there will be winners and losers. >> we are ready to adopt a more supportive fiscal stance. >> clearly the virus, if it goes on for any period of time, will wreak havoc on certain areas of the country and sectors of the economy. ritika: it is all straight ahead on "bloomberg best." hello and welcome. ritika gupta. this is "bloomberg best." your weekly review of the most important business news, analysis, and interviews from bloomberg television around the world. let's start with a day by day look at the top headlines. the week began with investors bracing for a shock. china's financial markets reopened after the lunar new year break amid rising fear and economic disruption caused by the coronavirus outbreak. >> chinese markets, plunging as they return from the lunar new year holiday to the widening coronavirus crisis despite beijing unveiling a raft of measures to aid companies hit by the outbreak and shore up financial assets. >> we saw all three mainland chinese key indices fall by more than 9%, sending them on track for their worst day in 13 years. we had the pboc liquidity coming through and also the rate cut. you saw some of those losses stemmed, but as we are seeing on the close on the csi 300, that is one of the worst days for the index to its we saw the equity bubble burst in august 2015. >> we've got the chinese officials telling us privately that we could be seeing a revision down to first-quarter growth. don't know by how much. they are saying everything is on the table at the moment. ats coming outst of bloomberg at the moment. out of the last 24 hours, demand for oil said to have dropped 20%. bloomberg reporters writing, the drop is probably the largest shock the oil market has suffered since the global financial crisis. >> tens of millions within china are on lockdown, and that means planes on the ground, buses not moving, cars not moving and it is having a massive impact. unless this lockdown ends soon, this is going to have a bigger effect on the global energy system. >> a pretty significant rebound. gaining a little bit of the mojo back. there was a lot of expectation we could see a massive global selloff after chinese markets reopened, but it is contained to the mainland china share. >> alphabet reporting fourth-quarter earnings and revenue from the key holiday quarter missed estimates. suggesting that the companies google advertising business is struggling to maintain growth in the face of rising competition. >> the numbers in q4, it was this disclosure they gave that analysts have been asking for, some additional information about how much revenue to generate from youtube and for cloud services. that was a mixed bag. youtube generated about $15 billion of revenue in 2019. we don't quite know where that were but theysts company was pointing to optimism about their ability to throw that in 2020. the cloud services were better received. i think people were encouraged by the wins in the space for the business. it sets up 2020 for a bigger round of competition between amazon and google, but amazon going into the core advertising business of google wants google goes into their cloud services business. i think it will be tougher for both of these companies but great for both in the market over the next 12 months. >> investors are going to have to wait a little longer for the first results of the 2020 democratic race. results from the iowa caucus have been delayed amid technical glitches. and because in can -- and cause inconsistencies. >> it is an extraordinary night here in iowa where you probably have not far from where i'm standing, they are trying to tally up the results. they had created an iphone app, or an app to put in the results. that app was glitchy. they have reported inconsistencies in results. what that means is, they added the columns and the numbers did not add up. right now, all of the candidates have given their speeches and many are on their way to the next contest, which is new hampshire, without having any idea who won in iowa. scarlet: what a day it has been. s&p 500, the best two-day rally since october, a lot because of the turnaround in chinese stocks thanks to chinese officials taking steps to stabilize financial markets, injecting liquidity. joe: it is absolutely extraordinary, tech stocks hitting new records. the speed with which the market has put virus fears on the sidelines, even though there is not real evidence of its containment, is pretty striking. ritika: in iowa, we are finally getting the delayed results from the first race to become the democratic candidate in this year's election. pete buttigieg is in the lead, with bernie sanders a close second after around 70% of the precincts have reported results. it is not the final number, but we are working our way toward the final number. >> unquestionably a good night for pete buttigieg, regardless how this turns out. if he finishes first for second, with bernie sanders who this was also a good night for. and then you have questions about joe biden, who was once considered the dominant front runner. we saw a market move after iowa started coming, some bank stocks ticking up because of uncertainty being good for president trump. >> president trump striking a triumphant tone in his state of the union, touting a great american come back. pres. trump: years of economic decay are over. >> the main focus of the speech was the economy and economic growth, which really got the best response, even from some democrats in the chamber. the top of the speech was the most popular or at least most unifying part, talking about simple things like the unemployment rate and economic growth. it was when he turned on to other more controversial subjects that the speech resulted in nancy pelosi tearing up a copy of the speech at the end. vonnie: bloomberg has learned china will cut tariffs on $75 billion worth of imports from the u.s. affected later this month, coinciding with the phase one move by the u.s. explain the significance of this, china going ahead with at least part of its promise, even in the face of difficulty to the economy from the coronavirus. >> questions around whether or not china has contained the coronavirus and the economic impact of that virus, whether or not it would be able to purchase or make purchase agreements that it came to in the phase one deal. $200 billion worth of u.s. products over the next two years on top of the baseline 2017 imports. that is a question that remains but what economics is saying is that the signals, the ministry of finance saying they will reduce tariffs as planned, says to the u.s. we are sticking to this trade deal, even if we may not be able to make these large purchases at this time at this particular moment. we remain committed to the phase one trade deal. you are seeing the optimism in chinese currency and more broadly in equity space. >> shock shakeup at credit suisse. the chief executive resigns, a stunning reversal for the executive who was backed by key shareholders following the damaging scandal. he will step down after presenting the fourth quarter results next thursday. he will be replaced by thomas -- a 20-year veteran of the bank. it follows a power struggle between thiam and the chairman. how much of a surprise is this? we heard of this fight between the chairman and chief executive, but a lot of shareholders have come out in support of the chief executive? >> it is still a huge shock that thiam is leaving a couple of months after his chief operating officer. the board is not mentioning this scandal, what we are seeing in the press release today is thiam apologized for every thing that has happened, the first he has done that. >> the chairman should be replaced. the chairman should be replaced. if he really cares about the organization, if he really cared about credit suisse, he would step down as chairman. >> u.s. employers did round up hiring in january. increasing by 225,000, topping all estimates in the bloomberg survey. the jobless rate also edged up to 3.6%. the participation rate, average hourly earnings were 3.1% year-over-year. >> from an economic perspective, there is a lot to like about this report. job creation, wage growth, labor participation. it all tells you the economy and the consumer are still in a good place. looking forward, we have to take into account what is happening in the rest of the world, but as a snapshot of our we are, it confirms the u.s. economy is in a good spot. >> president xi and trump spoke by phone last evening. very constructive conversation, president xi apparently said, it may be a little slower to purchase american exports, but it will get done. the export boom we are expecting from these strong new trade deals -- let's include usmca in that -- that will help the economy and wages. >> the coronavirus outbreak death toll has risen to at least 636. president trump praising his counterpart, xi jinping for strongly leading the country's response to the outbreak. the u.s. is preparing to assist china. >> as authorities around the world are under increasing pressure to show leadership and action when it comes to containing the outbreak. we are seeing more measures being tightened around cities like shenzhen. the corporate fallout is being made more apparent. ritika: still ahead as we review the week on "bloomberg best," more on the global economic impact of coronavirus. the eu will have a fiscal response if the crisis drags out. plus, terra firma's strategy now that brexit is a reality. >> we are being careful when it comes to certain types of real estate assets. ritika: next, highlights from another whirlwind week of robert earnings reports. -- of corporate earnings reports. >> we are expecting strong cash flow in 2020 building up from 2019. ritika: this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: this is "bloomberg best." i am ritika gupta. another busy week for corporate earnings reports. let's review the most interesting results. >> b.n.p. paribas kept pace with gains, even outpaced the gains of wall street rivals in the fourth quarter. the french bank posted a nearly 63% jump in fixed-income trading revenue after a rebound in rates and 4x activity. bank clocked in solid results, up 5% on the back of continued commercial drive but in the other two polls and delivery of the transformation plan. on cib, we continued the strengthening of our customer relationships, and particularly on the corporate and institutional side, leading to market share increases. international financial services remained the engine of growth, 7%. particularly private banking in europe and domestic markets. it was well resilient in the low interest rate environment. >> societe generale has pledged to boost shareholder returns. that's after the french lender warned investors to expect muted revenue growth. >> overall, probably better than people anticipated. six months ago, there is this virus issue in china. it is not the exposure we have in china, which is small, but like any company, what it could mean for the global economy. let's wait, there is a lot of uncertainty. hopefully there will be a solution for that, but beyond this, i would say we are pretty confident. yes, we have a slowdown in economies, but we think we can deliver better performance in 2020 through all of the hard work done in 2019. >> setting up plans to cut 300 jobs. the chief executive of the swiss private bank is laying out a strategy that focuses on cost cuts. and a little growth in assets. meanwhile, it has dropped its target for net new money after it missed goals for the last year. growth was the driver of the last decade. why change? >> growth has been the driver and will still be a relevant driver moving forward, but we believe we need a more holistic focus on the outcome rather than looking at the single factor. net new money in itself is relatively easy to achieve if you take away the economics. we believe it is harder in today's environment and tomorrow's margin pressure to do that in a profitable way. that is why it is important to focus on asset growth at the same time as margin and cost. manus: ing have delivered underline pretext profit for the fourth quarter that mr. lowest missed the lowest analyst estimates. the numbers come as the bank faces mounting pressure. where were the challenges in the quarter that took the number below estimates? >> if you look at the overall q4 results, it is quite challenging. having said that, our commercial momentum remains strong. i think we added over 200,000 primary new customers to our now 38 million customer base worldwide. i think we see from a revenue perspective that is being driven by a lot more digitization by our customer base, now over 37% of our customers are dealing with us purely on mobile devices. that has led to net interest income growth and fee income growth. where we see perhaps a difference with the street is that our cost increase is somewhat higher. this is driven by our anti-money laundering program enhancements, which continue to make progress and has led to increased costs going into q4. >> disney reported first-quarter earnings and subscribers of disney plus soared, topping estimates. this signals a fast start for the world's largest and -- largest entertainment company as it challenges netflix's online dominance. what was your key takeaway? >> they went and updated the numbers for the different disney streaming services so far this quarter. that is something that sucks -- that netflix doesn't characteristically do, so now you know disney plus has more than 20 million customers. espn plus is now above seven, hulu grew by the smallest amount, but all told, disney and in just one year has become the second-biggest player in tv streaming after netflix. you could say amazon is bigger because of the number of prime customers, but we don't know how many of them are watching videos. let's say netflix is still far and away the biggest, but disney with really impressive growth and strong viewership based on some of the data that bob iger shared about the popularity of different shows and how long people were watching on a weekly basis. >> shares of general motors climbed as the automaker forecast a boost in profit from new truck and suv models coming out. the company expects the new vehicles to make up for some of the weaker sales in china and the united states as it plans to bounce back from the toll that the 40 day strike took last year. >> when you adjust the impact of the strike, it was $6.71. strong performance from core operations, and when you look at the calendar year 2020 going forward, we expect the momentum to continue and particularly on the cash side where we have had a lot of focus in that area, we are expecting a strong cash flow in 2020 building off of strong 2019 where we regenerated $6.5 billion when you adjust for the impact of the strike. we are doing that with strong launches, trucks are performing really well. crossovers are doing really well, and the cost savings we put in place have helped us mitigate some of the macro impact we are seeing around the globe. >> bp is boosting its dividend after fourth-quarter profits beat estimates. bob dudley's final set of earnings run counter to the rest of the industry following a raft of weak results from his competitors. >> the main message from the fourth quarter is strong operating cash flow of 7.6 billion. $28.2 billion for the year. that has allowed debt to come down, by over a billion in the fourth quarter versus third quarter. now we've announced a package of disposals. we've announced a further 5 billion we will be doing by mid-2021. all of that points to a major deleverage of the balance sheet through the end of this year and that has given confidence in moving the dividend this quarter. >> novo nordisk sees a modest increase in profit in 2020 with an expected rise of between 1% and 5%. that is the world's biggest maker of diabetes drugs faces pressing challenges, especially in the u.s. does the coronavirus change everything? >> short-term, it does not. we have inventories in china. we manufacture for china in china and we have a supply chain. our key concern is to make sure we bring our medicines to patients. if you have diabetes and rely on insulin, that is a life-saving medicine, so it is important for us to make sure there is an intact supply chain. short-term, we feel good about that but into months and years, it becomes more challenging. short-term, we are in a solid place. ♪ ritika: you are watching "bloomberg best." i'm ritika gupta. the effects of the coronavirus are being watched by governments around the world. a substantial slowdown would drag down demand and disrupt supply chain. that could certainly have a negative impact on europe's growth, european commissioner for economic and financial affairs spoke with guy johnson about the economic risks posed by the virus and what the eu can do to combat them. >> if it will last for long, i think we have to consider the possibility to have some consequences in our global growth. if it will rapidly be contained, i think the consequences will be perhaps only on the first quarter of this year. it is difficult to predict this now. >> the chinese are already launching a substantial fiscal and monetary response to what is happening in their country. if the effects were to come to europe, is europe capable of delivering a similar fiscal and monetary response? >> i would say yes, in the sense that apart from the review of our rules of economic governance that i launched this morning, that will take a few months, we already decided in recent meetings of european minister of finance that in case of deterioration of the economic situation, we are ready to adopt a much more supportive fiscal stance. what is sure is we can't leave only to monetary policy and only to the ecb the task to support the economy if there is a serious risk of a slowdown in growth. this race could also be coming from unpredictable factors as the coronavirus is. it is early to assess this, but i think we are ready to react, if needed. ritika: coming up on "bloomberg best," more compelling conversations. investment insight from howard marks and guy hands responding to the shocks of coronavirus and brexit. nobel prize-winning economist paul krugman shares his thoughts on monetary policy. he gives the fed a passing grade. >> there was a little bit of tightening that was premature given what we have seen, but it probably didn't do a lot of damage. ritika: this is bloomberg. ♪ sometimes your small screen is your big screen. and with the xfinity stream app, which is free with your service, you can take a spin through on demand shows, or stream live tv. download your dvr'd shows and movies on the fly. even record from right where you are. whether you're travelling around the country or around the house, keep what you watch with you. download the xfinity stream app and watch all the shows you love. ritika: welcome back to "bloomberg best." i'm ritika gupta. this week, bloomberg's guy johnson caught up with some of the world most influential investors at the lse alternate investments conference in london. let's revisit a couple of exclusive interviews starting with guy hands of terra firma capital, discussing how brexit is changing his business. >> the reality of brexit is there will be winners and losers, which the government has admitted. the question is, how big the winners and losers will be, and my concern is tha

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