tuesday, last night's vice presidential debate, which depending on who you ask is either pulling president obama's case for re-election off the critical list or vindicated mitt romney's choice as paul ryan as running mate. depends what side of the political aisle you stand on. keeping them honest, each debater had moments that didn't quite stand up to closer scrutiny. first, paul ryan on the stimulus, which vice president biden called him on. >> they said that right now if we just passed the stimulus, the economy would grow at 4%. it's growing at 1.3. >> i love my friend here. i'm not allowed to show letters but go on our website, he sent me two letters saying by the way, can you send me some stimulus money for companies here in the state of wisconsin. we sent millions of dollars. you know why -- >> you did ask for stimulus money, correct? >> sure he did. >> on two occasions we advocated for constituents who were applying for grants. that's what we do. we do that for all constituents applying for grants. >> i love that. i love that. this is such a bad program and he writes me a letter saying -- writes the department of energy a letter saying the reason we need this stimulus, it will create growth and jobs. his words. and now he's sitting here looking at me and by the way, that program, again, investigate it. what the congress said was it was a model. less than 4/10 of 1% of waste and fraud in the program. >> you hear the vice president talk about two letters that congressman ryan sent requesting stimulus money for his district. in fact, it was at least four letters, two of which cnn has and two the huffington post obtained using the freedom of information act. this after he told boston radio station wbz back in 2010 that he has not and i quote, one of the people who votes for something, then writes the government to ask them to send us money. so that's congressman ryan from last night. as for mr. biden, he got tangled in foreign policy, specifically the libya killings. martha raddatz grilling him on security shortcomings in the administration's initial claim that the deadly attack was likely a spontaneous reaction to that anti-muslim youtube clip. >> why did that go on for weeks? >> what we were told -- >> by whom? >> by the intelligence community. the intelligence community told us that. as they learned more facts about what happened they changed their assessment. that's why there's also an investigation headed by tom pickering, a leading diplomat from the reagan years who is doing an investigation as to whether or not there are any lapses, what the lapses were, so they will never happen again. >> they wanted more security there. >> we weren't told they wanted more security. >> keeping them honest, there is now sworn testimony that the request was, in fact, made. the former regional security officer in libya second from the left there, telling a congressional committee that he asked for additional security for benghazi months before the attack but was denied. the white house today in what you might call damage control mode, saying mr. biden was speaking just for himself and president obama when he said we weren't told. mitt romney today called it doubling down on denial. so those are two issues that are sure to come up again when the president and governor romney square off on tuesday. tuesday at least until it gets here, it means everything. >> as we said, there's new polling, the debate foulout and always so close to the election, a lot more pieces in play. let's check in with john king in the magic wall to sort it out. it's trending in romney's favor demographically speaking. what is driving the ship? >> he's gaining in the suburbs, among independents, among older voters. when you add that up, what do you get? a shift in battleground state scenario. let's start with the latest evidence from the big prize of florida. look at these two new polls out just today. these are taken since the first presidential debate. romney 49, obama 46. within the margin of error but before that first debate, the president was ahead in florida. now romney at least has pulled into a tie, maybe slightly ahead. here's to back it up, a tampa bay times/miami herald poll, a bigger romney lead. clearly, romney momentum. the obama campaign says it's not that big in florida but he's pulling up into at least a tie, maybe slightly ahead. that's not all. let's start out in the west. look at battleground state polls out here since the first debate. nevada on your left, colorado on your right. a dead heat in nevada, dead heat in colorado. romney's been doing well in the west holding his own. he's boosted his standing a bit since the first debate in the two battlegrounds out there. come over to the heartland, in the state of ohio, you see here, again, he was down a lot in wisconsin before the first presidential debate. that's paul ryan's home state. he's pulled into a statistical tie. this one's a bit more troublesome for the romney campaign. they are closer in ohio than before the first debate but still behind. the president has kept a small but steady lead in the state of ohio. that one's a bit of a problem for romney but he's at least closer from before the debate. after the debate, let me show you one more in the state of virginia. this state is critical to romney's scenario. he was down by a handful, in some polls even more before the first debate. now he's one point ahead. just quickly, i want to show why that matters. going into the first debate, republicans were starting to get very nervous about this, the electoral college map. when you look at the improved polling now, the romney scenario, three two one, is much more realistic. what is that? take the three states obama won, indiana, which leaned romney's way, north carolina which you would have to favor for him, now the state of virginia with that improvement in the polls, now much more realistic to see. if he gets those three, he's in play. then you come to two. florida and ohio are the two. next big prize is in the romney scenario. ohio again, still a trouble mark for them but they're making ground. florida news is encouraging. if they can do the three and then the two, all they need is any one of the other states. so that's the key romney scenario. the president still has an easier path to 270. the romney prospects look a whole lot better now than just before that first debate. >> is all of this as a result of that first presidential debate? because all the narrative before that was how far in advance, how far out front president obama was, now does one debate make that difference? >> it has made a difference. we'll see if the second and third debates make any difference. we'll see in the polling in the next several days whether the v.p. debate made any factor. let me show you something else that happened. the polls are moving not so much on any wild swing of undecided voters but on the intensity of the partisans. meaning when democratic intensity went up after the democratic convention that's when the president pulled ahead. republican intensity went up dramatically after the first debate. that's why romney's back in play. it's not just in the battleground states. you know, we -- i have been to michigan several times. we talked about can governor romney put pennsylvania into play. both of these states were out of reach, michigan and pennsylvania heading into the first debate. look where they are now. dead heat statistically in the state of michigan, where romney was born. his dad was governor. in pennsylvania, a close race as well with the president oh top. i'm a bit skeptical. i want to see if this happens in a second and third poll but this is very important. states like this suddenly being in play heading into the final couple of weeks because if the president has to start spending time and money defending pennsylvania and defending michigan, that means less time the president is spending in florida, in ohio, in the western battlegrounds. at the moment the map is expanding, finally the romney campaign would say in its favor. >> interesting. john, thanks. let's dig deeper. let's look forward to round three of the debates on tuesday, where the campaign is headed. joined by patrick millsaps, former chief of staff and paul begala. the latest polls came out after last week's debate but also after surprisingly good jobs numbers. romney didn't just gain ground. he also got a boost on the question of which candidate is better suited to handle the economy. that's got to be a troubling sign for the president, no? >> oh, absolutely. this was an enormously consequential first debate. i think it makes the second and third enormously consequential as well but there's no doubt the president is seeing erosion in his lead. i agree with everything john king just reported there. notice that in the vice presidential debate last night, one of the very first things that joe biden did when they turned toward the economy was raise the auto bailout. one out of eight jobs in ohio is tied to the auto industry, of the 88 counties in ohio, 82 have automotive related industries in those counties. that's wildly popular in ohio. the obama campaign is making the case and i think they've got the better of the argument that the governor opposed, governor romney opposed the auto bailout and that's i think an economics jobs issue that the obama people are going to continue to push. >> patrick, a good chunk of governor romney's bounce came from this rise in republican enthusiasm after the debate. if the president is able to bounce back at the next one and move the needle on democratic enthusiasm, what does that do to the romney lead? >> i think romney needs to look at this now and look at the battleground states that are the must-wins, florida and ohio, he's so centralized in boston, i would send 100 people to florida, 100 people to ohio and just start gubernatorial races for the time being because that's how you get door-to-door retail politics. the debate last night was probably a draw, so it's not going to affect the numbers one way or the other. the concern i have going into the next debate is the format. while i said last week to you that this first format was romney's wheelhouse, this next town hall, it could be said that he's not the master of this domain so i think that there needs to be some foundational work done at the retail politic level going into next week's debate. >> we will talk to a gentleman who has coached romney in debates just to kind of give an inside look at what he may be doing and what president obama may be doing. but paul, we all saw signs this week there's suddenly a lot more states in play, including states that have supposedly been in the obama column for months. whether or not that's a temporary shift, what does it say about the strength of the president's support that those leads which, you know, two weeks ago seemed solid, evaporated so quickly? >> well, you still are 25 days out and you're going to have -- the movement has been very narrow. but the lead was very narrow. so there's not very many people actually in play, even in those swing states. you're only talking about 4% probably of the vote and probably really only six states. i'm kind of with king on this. i don't believe that any of the states john kerry carried are likely to be carried by mitt romney. maybe michigan, maybe pennsylvania, take a look at them, i don't see it. but that makes the electoral map much easier for the president. he needs the john kerry states, j.k., plus florida and nothing else, or plus ohio and any one other state. that's a much easier map, than a much more complicated inside straight that john drew, the three two one map romney's got to draw. >> to that idea, patrick, does it make sense for romney to devote resources to some of these other states, michigan and elsewhere, where they now seem more in play at the risk of sacrificing other states that he absolutely has to get? >> well, i think he's going to have to draw a line in the sand in florida and ohio, perhaps colorado and north carolina, and then after that, you know, depending on what the money is and what the numbers do over the next week, that's when you make those decisions. lot of people think this is in a smoke-filled room and we're going to plan out the next ten days. lot of times you have to respond to what goes on in the world and you're seeing an engaged elec electorate watching these debates. these debates matter. so i do think that they do need to draw a line in the sand with certain must-win states and then make decisions after that. >> paul, are you nervous, paul? given you're obviously a huge supporter, you run this pro-obama super pac. is there any concern on your side that this isn't just a debate, a good debate performance by romney, that he's hit on some sort of formula that is working for him particularly among undecideds, independents? >> well, first, i am paid to help re-elect the president by this super pac and i'm paid to worry so i'm of course worried. there's only two ways to run in america. that is scared or unopposed. sadly, the president is not unopposed so i'm running scared. i hope his team is running scared. you have to honor every threat. that's strategic air command, they have that on all the computers, honor every threat so yes, of course. at the same time, there's not something fundamental here. the president didn't make some kind of extraordinary gaffe or some big mistake. there's nothing that's fundamental here. unemployment hasn't gone up half a point or a full point. it was i think the debate. i don't discount that. that was a terrific job by governor romney that night. not a very good job by my guy, obama. but i think that's what's going on here. people gave him a second look, he rallied republicans and some independents who lean republican to his cause. the president's got to answer that in the next debate. >> yeah. >> anderson, i don't think we can discount romney's performance as just a performance. i think what he did in about an hour and a half was basically discount $300 million of my friend paul's money and others who tried to paint him as one thing and i think the country saw him as a real person who could stand toe to toe with the president of the united states and come with some ideas. i don't discount what he did as simply a performance. i think that's underestimating what the effect of that debate was. >> paul, appreciate it. patrick, very much. good to have you on again. let us know what you think. follow me on twitter right now. let's tweet about this. we're also going to look at what joe biden and paul ryan's bodies had to say during last night's debate. just some fascinating stuff. so much has been talked about joe biden, his laugh, the smile. you will hear from body language expert amy cuddy. plus, you will meet the man credited with turning mitt romney into a winning debater, next. how did i get here? 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[ female announcer ] with cisc♪ at the center... ♪ hi dad. many years from now, when the subaru is theirs... hey. you missed a spot. ...i'll look back on this day and laugh. love. it's what makes a subaru, a subaru. welcome back. raw politics now. tuesday's town hall debate could provide another boost to mitt romney's momentum or stop it cold. whichever body language will almost certainly play a part. it has throughout debate history. it did in this year's first presidential debate. it certainly did last night. in fact, it was as plain as the smile on joe biden face or the water glass in paul ryan's hand. gary tuchman watched the debate with social scientist amy cuddy, not looking to pick a winner, just aiming to spot a tell. >> first talk about the handshake. this is important to you, right? what do we see here? >> ryan is going in with his hand up a little farther, it's open and raised. >> what does that tell you that his hand is raised? >> he's trying to show that he's both strong and open. he's ready for this. >> what is biden showing us? >> biden is showing us that he's not scared. he doesn't need to come in like an alpha because he feels he already is an alpha. >> one thing we saw during this debate, each candidate gets water. i assume it's water, not vodka or gin. we saw the congressman drinking a lot of water. this is just time after time where we saw him picking up the glass and drinking water. biden, on the other hand, was not so thirsty. >> i can empathize. i've been in this situation. it makes me thirsty watching it. but he's nervous. this is a telltale sign of nerves. >> it's not just meaning he's thirsty? >> he's thirsty because he's nervous. when you get nervous, your mouth becomes dry. that's what's happening. so he's nervous. what i thought was interesting, it's actually the first thing he did when he sat down. so he was backstage, you know, 90 seconds earlier, yet still he had to come out and take a sip of water as soon as he sat down. >> we saw congressman ryan pick up that water glass a lot. we saw with the vice president of the united states, laughing, smiling. ryan's talking, laughing, smiling. these are different instances of him laughing, smiling, shaking his head. what is this telling you that joe biden was doing? >> okay. different people are going to interpret this differently. certainly, it comes across as dismissive. joe biden has some of the most authentic nonverbals. he comes across as very real, almost too -- i mean, it's both a blessing and a curse. >> what are the nonverbals you're talking about that's significant, what he's doing with his hands. what is this all about? >> this is interesting because he's smiling but what he's doing with his hands where he's pulling them up close to his face and actually touching his face, it's something that you do when you're feeling a little threatened and are sort of protecting yourself. >> you're telling me that paul ryan raises his eyebrows a lot. what is the significance of that? show me what you mean, where -- right there, right? >> his eyebrows are raised and his brow is furrowed. his eyes are wide. all of that indicates surprise. this is the facial expression that is universally associated with surprise across cultures. the problem is that when you overuse it, it is as if you're writing an e-mail in all caps. >> we're talking about how he looked nervous and anxious. here, though, you think this is significant because he doesn't look nervous and anxious. what does he look like here? >> i think he looks concerned and empathic. his eyes are soft and he has a puppy dog look. the way his eyebrows and eyes are shaped. >> you think it would serve them w