the race or try to block him from getting the nomination? and the latest details in the rutgers sex cam suicide. what did the suspect tell tyler clementi right before he took his life? new information tonight. let's go "outfront." we begin tonight with breaking news. we have new details about satellite images showing earth moving vehicles at iran's military site. this is the same site that international atomic energy agency inspectors have tried to visit. iran has indicated this week they may give them access. foreign affairs reporter is following the story from the state department tonight and what can you tell us about these reports? >> well, erin, we're talking about this site, this military base that the international atomic energy inspectors have been trying to get in. iran has said no when they made a trip there a few weeks ago, but now, we understand satellite images show that the iranian have been cleaning up the site and now you see yesterday in the wake of the international community going for talks with iran saying sure, we can come in. what diplomats are saying is we're not surprised they're going to let us in because they have been cleaning it for the last few weeks. we understand the satellite image shows they're cleaning up. we don't know what they're working on, but we know over the last few weeks, the images showing that earth moving vehicles and trucks have been rushing around the site trying to clean up activity before inspectors get in there. >> some reports say there could have been nuclear weapon trigger tests or things like that, but the date as to whether these things happen, if they happened, the dates are very unclear. david albright says this seems to pit the iaea against u.s. intelligence, which has indicated there hasn't been much activity in iran on a nuclear program in a while. what is your take? initially from what you're hearing? >> we need to be careful to say this is not a site where there would be a nuclear test. basically, what is tested there is what they called expressive composures and that means that the trigger for a nuclear device would be tested there, but not necessarily a nuclear test. what officials and diplomats say is what they could be working on is the so-called weaponization or the militarization of the program you've been talking about for so many weeks of the show. that could be going on and inspectors said in the recent report that they thought iran might be working on that at that site, but no one is saying that a nuclear test could be going on there and our sources are saying that they don't have any evidence of any kind of nuclear tests, but they do believe that iran is working on the so-called trigger components that they could use to build a weapon for a nuclear weapon. >> all right. thank you very much. we appreciate it. breaking news just coming in this afternoon of the cleanup of the site. the other big story we're following today is syria. and whether the united states is about to make its biggest military decision since invading iraq. john mccain called for air strikes against syria to help the opposition against basher al assad. it was at times a tense exchange with defense secretary leon panetta. >> how many additional civilian lives would have to be lost in order to convince you that the military measures of this kind that we are proposing necessary to end the killing and forced to leave power, how many more have to die? 10,000 more, 20,000 more, how many more? >> what doesn't make sense is to take unilateral action at this point. as secretary of defense, before i recommend that we put our sons and daughters in uniform in harm's way, i've got to make very sure that we know what the mission is. >> united nations estimates that the year long conflict in syria has resulted in 7,500 deaths. most civilian. at least 40 were killed today, including seven children, according to the opposition. the question is whether the u.s. is ready to get involved in another middle east conflict. military intervention in syria does not come at a small cost to the united states. we're told when you look at the monetary cost, an air campaign in syria could last at least two weeks. price tag would be $2 billion, which compared to libya, only l $900 million, which is more than double. but syria's military's not like libya's, which means this would be only a small down payment. to a possibly much more significant commitment. syria can fight back. take a look at these numbers. ground force, 320,000 troops. 5,000 tanks. at least 555 russian migs. 4,000 plus surface to air missiles. mccain says that's even more reason for the u.s. to get involved to help civilians. >> so, would you characterize this as a fair fight when he's using artillery and tanks to kill syrians? >> i would characterize the assad regime has brutalizing their own citizens. >> paul wolfowitz agrees with getting involved, writing this week in an editorial in the "wall street journal" that quote, strengthening the syrian opposition is not an obstacle. to a peaceful end to the conflict. to the contrary, it may be the only way to achieve one. but leon panetta was direct today. he says the u.s. should not intervene now. why? well, to start, we don't even know who we're arming. >> we faced somewhat the same situation in libya. here, you've got triple the problems because there are so many diverse groups that are involved. >> egypt's foreign minister warned that involvement would quote lead to an escalation in the military conflict and spark a civil war in syria. just who would the united states help by launching air strikes against assad's regime or by arming the opposition and what are the consequences of military action? dianne feinstein is briefed regularly on syria. we talked tonight about syria and iran. i want to note, we spoke just a few moments before that breaking news about iran's military site. >> the united states cannot be the world's policeman. we still have men and women dying in afghanistan. we're trying to get out of iraq. we played a role in libya. we see the middle east exploding. the key is to get the united nations to pass a resolution, which enables the arab league to go in there. the key is to develop regional bodies, which are responsible, stable and can handle situations like this. i think we can provide humanitarian aid, we can provide advice, but in this situation, i do not believe that we could, should commit american lives. >> and it's interesting you say that today. we just heard secretary panetta saying that he thinks that this could be three times as complicated as a place like libya, where of course we're now seeing certain parts of libya wanting to split off from other parts. that situation is far from resolved, but what do you know about the syrian opposition? i know we like to simplify these things and it's not that simple. do we know who the quote good guys are? >> well, i'll tell you what i know. it's very divided. i know there are many groups. i know al-qaeda is in there. i know that before you arm somebody, you have to know what they're connected with and that they're going to do with those arms and we don't really know that to the best of my knowledge. you're right. syria is a very complicated picture. it's a brutal ruler. assad, i have very little respect for. having said that, open humanitarian zones. find ways for people that need to leave, to leave. work with surrounding countries. help as best we can, but if we start attacking the syrian army, which is not a minor army in that area, and syrian equipment, we are in another war and one of the things that bothers me is that increasingly, the solution to everything is bomb. and i don't think it is. i think the solution is working out alternatives to bombing and that's what we need to do. >> when you talk about war, obviously, there's been a lot of talk recently about iran and what the right thing is to do and for a lot of reasons. the election. israel's adamant stress about iran. it appears we're near a tipping point. what sort of intelligence, how have you been briefed on what iran is doing right now? >> well, i have followed the intelligence very carefully. i have met with israeli generals. i read everything that's come out. i've had occasion to be able to discuss this with the national security counsel, tom donnelin and the president. here's what i believe. i believe that israel will attack. i believe that it is important that diplomacy be given an opportunity. i believe it is possible to achieve a diplomatic solution. and now that the p 5 plus one, in other words, the members of the security counsel plus germany, have agreed to a negotiation which can take place shortly, our teams have left. i think that if iran is smart, if iran really wants to bring its citizens into the 21st century and become economically upwardly mobile, that they will realize that going for a nuclear weapon makes no sense. >> you just said that israel will attack. i know you had a chance to meet with benjamin netanyahu when he was in the united states the past couple of days. what did he tell you? this whole question about israel attacking, there's such a crucial question as to if they do it, when. what can you tell us that he's thinking now? >> well, his revolve is very firm. no one should doubt that. he told us he's not asking anything of the united states. israel believes they are prepared to handle it. now, what happens after an attack is another story. and attack is very difficult. the question is can it be solved another way? i happen to believe it can. i happen to have tremendous belief in the act of hard nosed comprehensive diplomacy and i believe the israelis will wait to see what happens. sanctions are beginning to work. the central bank is under sanction. more countries have come into sanctions. the rial is in trouble. unemployment is up. food stuffs are scarce. the time has come for iran to realize that the world is serious. >> if israel though determines that that attack will come before the united states would like it to, before the united states feels that diplomacy has been given a fair shot, what does the united states do? are we basically then completely stuck? i know there's no treaty, but stuck going into? >> well, as mr. panetta has said, the intelligence indicates that iran is still a year to two years away from a weapon. intelligence says that the supreme leader has not given the order to develop a nuclear weapon. enrichment is taking place. much of it is hidden. these are two very cautionary notes. so, as i look at this, anything is possible. and iran is a party to the nonproliferation treaty. this is nothing in this for iran to have a nuclear weapon. nothing at all. >> mitt romney picked up six more states last night. was it enough or are the republicans headed for a brokered convention? and then the new maybe game change. in that movie, sarah palin is portrayed as unstable and in over her head. is that true? the writers behind the movie join us next. and those apple lovers out there, the new ipad was unveiled today. there's a number of things you need to know about it, though, and of course, we'll tell you about it. all energy development comes with some risk, but proven technologies allow natural gas producers to supply affordable, cleaner energy, while protecting our environment. across america, these technologies protect air - by monitoring air quality and reducing emissions... ...protect water - through conservation and self-contained recycling systems... ... and protect land - by reducing our footprint and respecting wildlife. america's natural gas... domestic, abundant, clean energy to power our lives... that's smarter power today. that's why i take doctor recommended colace® capsules. i have hemorrhoids and yes, i have constipation. that's why i take colace®. 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[ male announcer ] we're giving away fifty-thousand dollars worth of prizes! enter weekly to win! go to colacecomfort.com to enter! the sleep number bed. the magic of this bed is that you're sleeping on something that conforms to your individual shape. wow! that feels really good. it's hugging my body. it works in a minute. i can get more support. if you change your mind once you get home you can adjust it. so whatever you feel like, the sleep number bed's going to provide it for you. at our semi-annual sleep sale, save $400 to $700 on our most popular bed sets. sale ends soon. only at the sleep number stores. where queen mattresses start at just $699. mitt romney's campaign says the nomination is all but sewn up when it comes to the numbers. they say they can't ignore the basic principles of math. we love numbers on this show. we love it. so, we decided to look into it. it is unlikely that rick santorum or newt gingrich can pass mitt in total delegates. that's a fact. but there is something they can do by staying in and that is block romney from actually securing the nomination by delegates. john avlon is here to explain. like i said, maybe this will end in sudden death at some point, and i don't mean that literally. just in case anybody misconstrues what i'm saying. this seems to keep dragging on. you've done to math. how does mitt romney get there? what's the best case scenario? >> you can tell this is different. in the past, candidates have been able to sew up the nomination more or less by super tuesday. but this time it's different. for two reasons. one, math, the other, money. for the first time, the rnc is doing proportional allocation of delegates. not winner takes all. that means it takes longer to get to that magic number. of 1,144. the second is super pacs. in the past, you could functionally force another person out by saying, you don't have the cash, you may have the heart, but you don't have the cash, get out. and that way you can can get the nomination. but super pacs and proportional representation between things are going to go on for a long time. >> leaves sheldon and newt sitting in a tree. >> absolutely. >> let's go through the romney scenario. what's the best possible for him? does he get there? >> this is like a reality check. let's say romney wins everything. it is a total sweep. not going to happen. but it would take him until may 15th to get the requisite number of delegates. >> that includes winning alabama, mississippi, all those states. >> running the table like no one else exists. just the basic math to take may 15th. >> okay. let's talk about a more likely scenario, which is he doesn't win everything. >> here's what we did with this. he's going to win all but one of the all or nothing states and 50% of the proportional delegates. realistic scenario, still comes up short. comes from 1132 in our calculations. that means that he can take undeclared delegates, still push them over the top. but this is key, even with that pretty positive scenario, he doesn't hit the number. >> he doesn't hit the number? >> that's right. >> then it would go to the convention? >> the party leaders would say let's get him over the top. let's avoid the chaos. >> what's the worst case. one thing you said is key, he's winning 50%. he's not been winning 50% of a lot of these states. >> let's say he keeps on winning 40%, which is his average. if he keeps on winning 40%, he comes in at 1022 at the end of this. that is not enough to get undeclared delegates to put him over the top. that is a path to a contested campaign in tampa. that is a nightmare scenario for the romney campaign and the republican establishment. these are projections. if you look at the math, the hard numbers, this is far, far from over. >> i'll tell you who would be loving that, heavenly, heavenly dreams about that. barack obama. all right. thank you. one person who would be very happy with a long, drawn out primary is sarah palin. >> i want to see the process continue. i do believe that competition makes our candidates better. remember, there are five men running for president and i think barack obama is the worst choice, the last choice, so the four in front of him as they duke it out in the arena of ideas and solutions to propose, the more of that, the better. >> palin is back in the spotlight this week as the hbo movie "game change" is set to hit the airwaves. julian moore plays the former candidate and it is sort of bizarre. >> before i became governor of the great state of alaska, i was mayor of my hometown. i guess a small town mayor is sort of like a community organizer. except that you have actual responsibilities. >> in the movie, palin is depicted as in over her head. she calls the portrayal a quote, fact change. the co-authors of the book "game change" came "outfront" tonight. i started by asking them their thoughts and last night and mitt romney. >> great for romney in the sense that he entered super tuesday by far. he leaves it the most likely republican nominee by far. he faces a very treacherous rest of the month. there's five contests. he could lose four. if that happens, this becomes unpredictable. i don't think he can stop mitt romney from having the most delegates unless you knock him out, but now, that potential is there. it's not likely. the potential is there now to embarrass him this month, beat him in illinois and then head into the bigger states, maybe with gingrich one-on-one, santorum, romney. he could lose then, but it's unlikely. >> gingrich gets out say after next week hypothetically, what happens? >> it's still almost impossible for rick santorum to get enough delegates to go to the convention with the nomination, but it's possible heading through april, may, june, it's possible that him and the combined delegate of the other candidates could deny romney a majority and then you're talking about one of those crazy journalistic fantasy scenarios of a brokered, contested, crazy convention, and we'll all be really happy if that happens. >> you wrote hey, mitt romney, there's ten things you have to do right before super tuesday. there were two things on that list that really stood out. one is get a better relationship with the media. your relationship is horrid. and two is write a memo. get your campaign to write a memo about why it is inevitable. why your delegate count is inevitable. why we don't have john avlon giving out scenarios. are they going to do that, get that done? >> they did a little bit of that today and started to basically say not what barack obama said four years ago, which is i'm going to get a majority. the strongest thing they can say is we're going to have the most and we're going to be close to a majority and therefore, if you want to unite the party, don't want a mess at the convention, get on board now. >> that's a lot more work to get that done. >> they're started to try, but i've covered presidential elections since 1988. i have never seen the press corps as down on a candidate. as they are at large on mitt romney. and it hurts because every day, he's never given the benefit of the doubt. never. he does things, takes a huge hit that other candidates would get by with. >> this is not a liberal conservative thing. george w. bush had a great relationship with the media. helped him extraordinarily. in that race, george, his father, had a great relationship with the media, too. at least a constructive one with the people who cover you, you know, it's a huge asset and if you don't have it, it's a huge liability. >> you know what other presidential candidate had a great relationship with the media? >> could it have been john mccain? >> john mccain. for most of 2008, he really did. it's not a republican thing. the history of it, romney has a proble