in their history, the history of canada will not be either first or second. at this moment, they are well back in third place now. these have all been finalized yet, but nevertheless, there are many other ridings the store to clear indication the conservatives are doing extremely well, heading towards the potential of a majority government. right now there's 133 seats, 155 is what is needed for the majority. let's have a look at some numbers to give an indication of how this is playing out. for the conservatives it's a great light at 40% of the share of the vote that has been counted so far. that's not a final number. it's where we are at right now. sorry, 38.2% of the vote counted so far. they are trying to get the car to 40%, which is the generally accepted figure for a majority government. don't have to get there, 38.2 might be enough. it's certainly doing them no harm right now as the march very effectively towards 155. the ndp about 30%, the liberals down under 28% right now. the green's really not a significant factor. let's move from the share of the votes to the sense of the vote change. this is where the difference has been. the conservatives are doing their fairly effective seat count based on more or less the same vote so far that they had last time. right now, there are plus 22 on the evening. the only needs to be a plus nine to get a majority government, so they are heading very firmly in that direction because these are the moments -- they're just leaving but they still have to be very happy looking at that. the ndp up 46 seats leading their elected. it gives you those overall numbers of 133 for the conservatives, 694 the ndp, 26 for the liberals and four, four count them, only for the bloc quebecois but at this moment the story is the conservatives doing conservatives doing extremely well right across the country with the exception possibly of québec. we will break that down for you in a moment. in fact at the moment they are holding their seats in québec, so they are doing well everywhere. not the gains in québec but certainly holding. evan solomon is going to try to answer this question about majority for us by analyzing the numbers. go ahead. >> peter we know now project in conservative government as you say the question now is majority or minority and let's just look at exactly how this is playing out. right now leading an electorate in 132. doubt this is the key here. remember they only needed plus mine, and look at that. this whole, these are previous routings and we haven't heard from the cnn look at that they are over by 11 to what they need to go so that is -- looks like they are well on their way to that. and here is their riding that may illustrate that. we haven't heard from writing to and british king colombia yet but let me show you this. this is vancouver. this is a writing where of course the liberal incumbent. we haven't heard from vancouver south but look the conservatives are above what they needed, levin above that plus nine so do know is it conceivable they can win other writings that they are over performing and as you talk about, they are not performing necessarily much of the popular vote but their vote is very efficient. they could win that win and i will give you one writing where it looks like they are doing well. this is in 416 and these are the writings that they were looking at. this used to be what they called a fortress liberal and again only five of 211 poll showing that again but again the liberal incumbent, losing to the conservative there. it is not even necessarily a vote. it is a writing they had to rely on and it is going their way so across the country as we look to see if it is a majority or minority fare well on their way. it is not a very steep hill not to climb towards that majority. >> evan thanks very much. one of the 106 in ontario, where if the tories are going to win a majority, votes would have to work in their favor. let's get more detail on whether or not that is happening from diana swain. >> it is happening awry. this is not a good night so far for the liberal party in ontario because they are trailing in a number of seats in seats where high-profile names are running. not or higher profile than their leader ignatieff. a three-way race and that is what we have unfolding. michael ignatieff is in the lead in if you look at the numbers you have 175 votes to his name and michael right behind him, when 74. michael erickson with 147. this has been going back and forth and in fact michael ignatieff's snuck into the front spot in the last couple minutes. this will clearly be one to watch but it is one of anywhere the liberals have to be a little bit concerned about the way the vote counting is going so far. first of all, mark holland, one of the better known liberal mpice and a real thorn in the side of the conservatives. they targeted his writing because they don't like him because he is in their face all the time. they are running chris alexander who is never run for office before but he is a diplomat and they really had strong feelings about his ability to take this run and right now we see his got a sizable lead of 300 votes. that is was only 16 polls reporting. it is always curious to see where they're coming from so we will watch that. another writing we have got our eye on but now is in springdale. rupee della sitting in third place but again, very twice between the first, second and third challenger. harmed gillison the lead for the conservatives with two poles and so we will keep an eye on that. another writing edmundson lawrence, joel alt-a has been an mp since 1980. i'm not sure if that makes him the longest-serving mp but he would be one of them is not. joe oliver ran against him last time and lost in right now joe oliver is in the lead and look at the difference. 426 votes for him gives him a lead of over 200. this is not a good night for the liberals in ontario. >> alright, you know as you went through those numbers, it is very clear from looking at those individual writings that it is still early in the evening. people must be looking at the overall numbers and saying 133 and still early. what are you holding back for in terms of calling the majority? that seems to be the direction it is heading and however so many writings are still so close. to give you an indication, here is a selection of writings we say fall into the too close to call category. and there are lots and lots of them. in fact, there are close to 100 writings where the lead is less than 50 votes. this is some of them where they leads are so small. one, two, seven, seven so this is why we haven't pushed the button on this yet. it is pretty clear and that is just a start. it goes on and on. look at all these that are under 10 votes. you are not going to declare anybody elected with any indication that the buzzer that small. black st. louis and the list goes on, scheffer there as well. all within 10 so that is an indication. diana thanks very much. let's hear from the issue gang andrew alan and shauntel or when we look at the numbers like that. i mean, it really is quite something to see. mdp at 83 leading a reluctant. you wonder veteran journalist like you whether you ever thought you would see the day that the ndp would be position that high on a national number. >> of course not. i certainly never imagined the ndp winning the or 60 in québec which it looks like they are but their very success is going to lead to strong conservative ever met, probably a majority the way it looks right now. you see in ontario as an example that the ndp has picked up about three times more votes than the conservatives have. yet the conservatives have picked up three times more seats than the new democrats have. this is because this is the way the splits are working that we talked about earlier. and writings were the liberals go from first to third and the ndp go from third to second in the conservatives don't even have to move. that is what is happening and it will propel them into big government again. >> they could end up winning seats. >> that is what happening in the greater toronto area now. >> i think of shauntel three weeks ago when you first hinted to us that something was going on in the province of québec and it was to the benefit of the ndp and it could be staggering so you must be sitting there with. >> i can only imagine looking at those numbers, seven members leading, the social accreditation being reduced to a minor run and at the numbers they like that how do you come back from that? at six in the province. they could actually be the last in the province if the liberals hang onto their anglo montréal seats. then you look at the liberals coming out of atlantic canada so from québec to british columbia they are leading in less than 20 seats. and that is also of a magnitude that i don't think any of us have ever imagined, the party as almost half of its collective caucus at this point and atlantic canada and across the rest of the atlantic. they seem to be going down really quickly. >> alright, and your want your thoughts in just a second that we do want to make this official from our point of view now. we have been suggesting for a wild that the ndp would finish second based on those numbers. we have seen enough now even with those small leads to say making history tonight the first ndp leader to be the official opposition leader. there will be number two in the house of commons, behind the conservatives but it will be jack layton's opposition when they returned to parliament whenever that may be. for ndp supporters down in toronto, it is a happy night for them and you can see them cheering as they see the news on their board that the conservatives are going to win tonight but it is the ndp that will play second. they come from fourth to second in one night after an extremely successful campaign. okay, and/or can you hold on one second? i want to quickly go down to rosemary barden as brian talked with her onetime ndp organizer, senior should teach it level. take it away. >> the manager the last campaign in 2008 or they didn't come through, very different story here tonight. first of all your reaction to the numbers and the fact the ndp is --. >> that is pretty fabulous. what else can you say? people i've been working for that result for a long, long time. people i've been working in the tbs and the ndp and the farmer labor for 100 years. finally knocking on the door of apartment like that is wonderful to see. >> let's talk a little bit about that because it is think in the numbers we are seeing here tonight. why do you think quebecers woke up to what the ndp was offering this time? >> i think quebecers were the first of many to say it is time for a change in tried to do something new. i think also the québec cause of the caw -- in the province is ready for something new and they like that guy. they like jack layton who is throwing mud pies at his opponents and saying let's do it positive. >> there are challenges ahead for him. not all of these candidates in québec and other places were broke candidates in that you never thought they would get elected. they probably never thought that. we are talking about a steep learning curve for a lot of people starting as early as tomorrow morning. >> that is true but you know what? everybody starts now and what we have is a caucus made up of normal votes and the people some great people and former cabinet ministers and some ordinary people who will represent the folks so maybe they will see themselves in a parliament. that is fabulous but for the first time in 20 years, a fertile as parties going to be representing québec in parliament and that is great news for everybody. the real challenge is to live up to that and be respectful of those folks. >> for them and work are. is going to be great. >> i know you been working a long time for them so i know you thank you free time. back to peter. >> rosemary thanks very much. and her we left you about to comment on this staggering result for the ndp finishing second. we are monitoring the conservatives who have stalled a bit and the mid-130s to the low 140s. we will see whether they march towards that 155 figure but for the ndp you are looking now at a caucus that suddenly never had more than one person from québec and now is going to be dominated by quebecers, more than i think leading at 52 writings now. >> i then checked whether the woman has spent the campaign and vegas was elected that it will be nanchang crew. >> maybe that is a strategy one should take. the hide and go seek strategy. you are looking at the destruction of one party, the near destruction if not complete of the liberals and quite historic achievement for the conservatives. i don't see how they don't get a majority at this point. they are running for five points ahead of where the polls have them across the boards and there at 45% in ontario. if they put this together this is an entirely new governing coalition of the west and ontario. there's never been a majority government in our history it was basically put together by just those two regions and that is i think is extraordinary. we are all looking at 35 for 40% nationally. what we weren't focusing on is there at 45% plus ontario west and that is you know there's not reason and civility in intent to put together the west in québec. they are such incompatible values and interests of those mpice. ontario and the west mpice are much more of a fiscally conservative nature and it looks like they're much they are much more durable. >> you mentioned and i know shauntel i want to update you on this because i know you want to know this andrew. here is the ndp candidate who would campaign from her campaign in las vegas and she is winning. by quite a bit in a québec. she is leaving at the moment. you want to make a quick common shauntel. >> the way this looks, it looks like ontario on this click the split, right, and conservative majority are a big winner in ontario and the opposition and at that point you don't need to get 40% to get the majority. >> there at 40% now. >> yes, so there will be time for the mp once they finish rejoicing. there will be things for the ndp and the liberals to ponder about whether they want to wait another four years to see if they can kill each other some more. >> there are your overall numbers now in terms of the share of the votes conservatives at 40 and the ndp at 30. the liberals down a 23 and a half and is andrew said we are watching the near destruction of one of the great founding parties of this country. we have that term through it all the way through the 1900 so there was canada's natural governing party. it was one of stephen harper's great james so he could destroy that name but it never he never happen. >> they are going to be facing existential divisions now. do they try to go into a merger with the ndp or will the people in the party be horrified by that? there is a real danger this party splitting up our. >> we see writing starting to come and that they may hit triple digits. from their all-time high of 43. quite something. back to the issue panel of it. let's check in on the latest in ontario with famous when. >> not a good night for the liberals. they will be looking long and hard at what happened in this province because we will show you the sea change. as it stands right now leading an elected this is how it breaks down and it is bad news for the liberals. you'll see that the conservatives conservatives at this point leading at or elected in 70 seats, gain of 18. the ndp up six in all of this comes at a cost of the liberals, down 24 seats in a province that has 106. we talked about the liberal rebuilding program and they will have to come after this. it is going to have to come without well-known the rules if these numbers hold. for instance maria mena who is one in east york, very nice part of toronto by the waterfront and she has withstood challenges from the ndp in the past but tonight she is struggling with matthew kellaway who is running for the first time and is so far in the lead. let's look another at another writing where a well-known nation in trouble for the liberals and we are going to go to -- nbc john candace who has been the mp here since 1993 the better part of 20 years is trailing, sitting in third place right now. natalie hunt for the ndp. they may take up a seat and let's show you another one. this is a well-known name well-known name i was mentioning. this is hide park and gerard kennedy who ran for the liberal federal leadership windy wendy on one. he is trailing to peggy nash. she is helpless writing. this was expected to be tight but in a moment she has got over 200 those in our favor against gerard kennedy. lots of talk they could lose that seeks him out a great night for the liberals at all in ontario right now. >> not at all anywhere. a terrible night for the liberals who are sitting just over the 30 seat mark now. the ndp just wonder 198. the conservatives kind of frozen in that low 140 mark. it will be interesting to see now whether or not they move up. they have to get it to 155 to win a majority government. we have not called that. we lost speculation but they seem to beheading in that direction. we have not made that call yet based on what we have seen and the fact that there are a lot of writings that are still very close in different parts of the country. while we are forecasting and will be another conservative government and there will be an ndp opposition. the ndp miles ahead of the liberals and look at that block number after being such a dominant force in this country for most of the last 20 years. since 1993 and the bloc québec off bloc will blackwater -- will find a very popular thing to their thinking after last time around almost at the tea seeds which has been more or less their number in the 40s to low 50s for most of the last 20 years. this time zap just like that most of those seats going to the ndp. the tory seats in québec seemed to beheading towards the ndp as well. let's check the party leaders on their status tonight. based on the results we have seen so far. this is no surprise, stephen harper was an early and convincing lead and calgary southwest. he won by more than 20,000 votes last time. in the toronto writing that is help by michael ignatieff let's get the latest there. is an back-and-forth all evening. jack. jack layton is leading and michael ignatieff is trailing. jack layton, the easy winner tonight in toronto. danforth the leader of the opposition. now let's look at mike ignatieff. lakeshore is where he is trailing. early 36 of 279 polls by the conservative candidates got a lead of a couple of hundred over michael ignatieff right now. obviously does not a good night for michael ignatieff. from the big numbers of maybe not a good night for him in the small ones either. how is duceppe doing? his party is getting trounced so at this point is c. 100221 polls reporting in glorious anne murray and he is losing to the ndp. so there is your numbers and your status of the party leaders we don't have anything on elizabeth may yet, the green party leader and we will check in on that as well. she had a good shot of knocking off gary lund, the conservative cabinet minister. let's go out to calgary. the man who has organized the conservative campaign is guy giorno with terry molesky. >> peter i am with a happy but not quite as ecstatic guy, the campaign chairman for the conservatives. mr. giorno, goodnight but not the best night yes. do you think you are going to go over the top into a majority? >> i think is too early to say that the main thing terry is stephen harper began his this campaign saying he was asking for getting back to the job of working on the economy working on an economic action plan and it looks like he has sent them the mets were. >> what a