0 chris christie's goal. he wants to try to send a message to the rest of the political world and his party that his way is the way to get the party back on track. to win a presidential election for the first time in a long time. but i don't see this as a way to really make that message clear. i think that he's facing weak competition. he's facing a candidate who has struggled raising money, who has struggled to get her message out. when you think about looking ahead, assuming chris christie runs, he's going to face a very different field in the republican primary. and if he were to win that, he'd face a very different strength of candidate in a democratic challenger. and so i think he's going to have a hard time making the case that this is going to prove that he's a presidential candidate. >> you bring a great point up about money. if we follow the money, which always takes us down interesting paths, we've got "the new york times" pointing out the massive amounts of it flowing into jersey and the races there to thwart christie's agenda with outside spending topping twice what was spent when christie was elected. can he cut through the noise and make the proper path? >> well, this is the big question that's looming over this right now. i mean we saw what happened to mitt romney, who was sort of similar when he was in the governor' office saying that he made overtures to democrats, that he can be the candidate of compromi compromise. and then we saw him change all of his positions, shift very hard to the right in order to survive the primary, which he did. but that ultimately that didn't help in the general election. so i think chris christie could become a different candidate, come the republican primary. in terms of his policy positions. the most that the general public knows about christie is in terms of his attitude, his sort of down-to-earth kind of guy who isn't afraid of straight talk. >> take no prisoners approach basically. earl, if we turn our attention to virginia now, that being once a republican stronghold, virginians went for obama in the last two presidential elections and here you have ken cuccinelli up against the clinton machine and terry mcauliffe. politico is pointing out that these questions in the race are the big ones. will black voters turn out. how big is the gender gap and do independents punish cuccinelli for the shutdown or mcauliffe for obama care. so based on those, how do you think it's going to go in virginia? is it too close to call to say this is going to be a shoo-in for terry mcauliffe? >> well, it's never a shoo-in for any particular candidate and certainly not in virginia. all the things you went down the checklist, these are intangibles at this point. we'll know at the end of the day. in other words, the turnout of african-americans, independents. also it's a low turnout off election. all of these things, i think, taken into consideration could actually work in cuccinelli's favor. we don't know at this point in time. however, one thing i think that has emerged from this and i think cuccinelli has made this point over and over again, and mcauliffe to an extent too, is this really a referendum at the national level, the outcome in virginia, on obama care, the affordable care act and beyond that? because essentially what's being suggested here is virginia is in fact the bellwether. because it's the changing demographics are making it a much watched state. so i think we're really going to have to see if mcauliffe comes out on top with a substantial win, by the way, i think it sends a huge message not only to the nation, but also the democratic party and the republican party that, in other words, it's an uphill battle in 2014 and 2016. on the other hand, if cuccinelli wins, i think it's a shot in the arm for certainly the tea party and certainly conservatives in the gop. >> but cuccinelli put out this op-ed for politico and he gave that statement where he said virginians that want to vote for obama care can vote for me. virginians who want to see obama care grow further can vote for mcauliffe. mcauliffe has been a strong support of what obama care will mean for virginians and how it's going to change the narrative. even though obama care because of the netechnical glitches and the rollout, he's acting like it's not political kryptonite for him to talk about. >> that's exactly right. i think mcauliffe has made the case there's a lot of elements within the affordable care act that remain very popular with americans in general. and mcauliffe doesn't necessarily see the risk. that he can embrace this law and run on it as part of his platform. kucuccinelli has made a strateg decision that might cost his party dearly. obviously there's problems with the rollout of obama care but at the same time if cuccinelli loses, as now seems likely, we'll see that sound bite over and over again of cuccinelli and his allies saying this is a referendum on the affordable care act. if he loses, the affordable care act wins. this is something to keep an eye on as the results come in tonight. >> i want to point everybody's attention to this alabama race, the first congressional district here. this is between two republicans. we've got former state senator bradley burn, who was a democrat until '97, and candidate dean young, who describes his supporters as pitchfork people. now, i want to read you just a few of the answers from the q & a that happened and the interview in the guardian. apart from the u.s., which other country do you admire. burn, good question. israel, young, i'm not a big world traveler so i don't know. do you feel homosexual people can feel the same young for people as straight people? burn, yes. young, i don't even know. then where was barack obama born. burn, he has worn in hawaii and produced a birth certificate. young, this is what we call the $64,000 question. i have no idea. when pushed for an answer he responded with kenya. so i'm just going to phish this out to anybody who wants to jump on it first. what does this tell you about the state of the republican party especially when we know that this burn guy refers to his people as pitchfork people? >> you know, look, we can laugh at this. and some of it is on the surface appears laughable. but let's face it, every poll, every survey i have seen and we have seen over the last couple years has shown one thing clearly. there is a huge, and i mean huge element out there that's basically no nothing. they want nothing. everything -- they're anti-everything and that's always been a deep strain within the american body of politics and i think it's coming up now. so we see dean young apparently making all of these basically stupid way-out statements, but we have to understand something else. there's a constituency out there for that. there's a lot of people that like that. there's a lot of people that would cheer him on. and let's face it, there's a lot of people that will vote for him. >> it's intellectually dishonest, though, his answers. so hopefully potentially the voters out there can see t through that. our agenda panel, suzy khimm, steve benen and earl hutchinson. you know find more at thomasroberts.msn thomasroberts.msnbc.com. we're also watching races in a dozen other cities across the country. bill if bill de blasio befts joe lhota -- mike dugan could be detroit's first white mayor in 40 years if he can beat benny napoleon. in minneapolis, voters there will have 35 mayoral candidates to choose from, so we wish you good luck with that one. still ahead, terror in the skies. two skydiving planes colliding in midair, all caught on tape and all of the jumpers live to tell this story. we'll hear from them coming up. plus we're learning more about the man who opened fire inside a popular new jersey mall last night, causing hundreds of customers running for their lives. shocking new allegations against dolphins guard richie incognito accused of leaving threatening messages for his teammates. hazing in the nfl. is it time for the league to crack down with a zero tolerance policy and stand by it? 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