Transcripts For WBAL Mad Money 20121002 : vimarsana.com

WBAL Mad Money October 2, 2012



higher earlier in the day. now, we have had some decent data, housing numbers, auto sales, retail purchasing, but the figure from the institute for supply management it forced money to flood into the market at the beginning of the day. rather than flowing out of it. breaking the awful monday tradition. and the tide did hold up for most of the session. the bullish data coupled with last night's positive news out of china, the first month to month industrial changes converted the bulls into bears and made all the difference. tonight, i want to translate this news into a context that you can understand. maybe even make some money with. because it's right at the heart of why the market keeps rallying. we began q4 like we did for the last three quarters even as so people believed in the advanced still. you hear the phrase don't fight the fed. when i first heard it 30 years ago i had no idea what it meant. fight who? isn't this a business where we look at the cold, hard numbers and figure out whether the future going to be brighter and then determine how much we should pay for the earnings down the road? the answer is yes, sometimes that does work. but this is not one of those times. when the federal reserve talks about getting the economy moving by any means necessary it is talking about getting more data like today's terrific ism number. given that the chinese are doing the same thing, if you're betting against the market you're fighting major central banks around the world that are doing their best to generate good data and why does this overused cliche matter so much? ben bernanke said he's going to continue to buy bonds to keep interest rates down, so that this purchasing manager's number won't be an aberration. when you examine the fundamental stocks, you are playing what's known as the micro. when you take into account the big data numbers like the purchasing manager's index, you're making a macro analysis. again though like the idea of fighting the fed this micro/macro dichotomy might mean nothing to you unless you took ec 101. let's put it in terms that everybody can understand. anyone who's been to a museum or taken an art class knows that for years artists tried to paint pictures as if they were perfectly -- let's say they tried to capture the exact look. like a kodak camera. okay? that's called realism as the painters are indeed realistic. but as art progressed in the late 19th and early 20th century, you tend to get more -- let's say impressionist, less realist and then expressionists as the artists struggled to get beyond the four walls of the canvas, they took impressionism into the logical conclusion and coming up with spots and dots. my modern art class in college was affectionately known as. hmm, okay. what does this have to do with investing? you want to consider the microrealism. you analyze a painting by how well it captures the actual feel of the subject and that's what happens when you come up with the most accurate valuation of the stock. but the abstracts think the realists are more difficult to understand and let's say they're factors in other larger forces, rather than focusing on the company by company details. the result? the abstract painters are like the macro guys. the buyers of stocks who base their decisions on the ethereal moves of the fed that can't be pinned down by the realist thinkers. they imagine things the impressionists. often bullish things that the realists can't see. moreover, many fans of old school paintings can't understand abstract art. in fact, they think it might not be art at all. many of them think it is worthless. i mean, you can only think, hmm, is that upside down? geez, you know, well, i mean, this could be upside down. this i don't know. there are other times when the expressionists artists like jackson pollack or mark rothgo have tens of millions more worth, and picasso churned out a lot of picassos. where we value the imagination with the central banks of the world, more than we value the trap thinking of the realists, of course, it's an ongoing tug of war as we saw at the end of the day when the realists pushed back because of the fundamentals of the individual companies. they simply aren't good enough for most money managers. plus, the fact that apple was down. that tends to cast a pall on the whole art show. when federal express disappoints we think what they were thinking? the realistic thinking of the market, rembrandt is far more grim and accurate than the abstract view. but when we get a robust one, that's a validation of those prices they're paying for the art. but there's nothing they can do about it other than rail at the gains and portray them as unrealistic and unsustainable even though they take them at the bank. here's the real difficulty for the realists who are sticking to their guns. they tend to be doing the worst, stocks like the banks with pathetic earnings or the oils which need a much stronger global economy and higher oil prices to meet the expectations or the copper or the aluminums. i mean, at one point that was leading us all day. we can bounce back between higher values for the realistic versus the impressionists. but the one thing to know, there's no right or wrong. there is no judgment to be made by you about whether you hate the modern art stocks or totally embrace them. i for one love cezanne. what matters though is trying to figure out which art work's drawing the dollars right now. if you want to make money in the market we have to recognize which school of thought has the edge at the moment and just run with it. i learned this lesson the hard way. at various times i refused to recognize that the fed can raise the stocks and bet against the fed and only to discover when it turned positive, like today, i missed the entire move as i cherish my out of date rembrandt view. of the fun dids. i'm not a curator of museum of stocks. however, i'm a stock art dealer. all i can tell you is that you have to value both schools. the microrealist and the macro impressionist and accept them as actionable even if you disdain them. you leave your real taste to the art galleries you frequent, not the stock galleria. here's the bottom line. when you fight the fed you're fighting the values the marketplace is putting on the expressionist even those who paint in spots and dots. that's fine. nobody says you have to buy. but if you want to make the most money you need to recognize on a day like today, the moderns did end up being winners and if you fight the pricing, you may just be fighting the history of when the fed does its best painting. even if it is by the numbers. eddie in new york, please. eddie? >> caller: hi, jim. this is eddie from brooklyn. >> i was there in brooklyn last week, i love it there. >> caller: okay. i never miss your show. but i have a question for you. what is your opinion of lej now that they're working with j.c. penney? >> well, they've been a terrific performer. and it's got some automotive. this is a stock that herm green burg and i have agreed on. really well run company and i value his judgment on whether a company is doing the right thing or not. let's go to joy in my home state of new jersey. >> caller: how you doing? >> real good, how are you? >> caller: i'm great. well, i became interested in generack holds but i figured there would be disruptions in the power grid. i gave it a miss and it's had a great run. so jim i'm just wondering if your opinion is it a buy at this time? >> i don't know. i don't know. i always presumed if you wanted to do portable generator the only play in town is cummings. we have to find by thursday whether this is a bull or a bear. i promise to get back to you. let's go to brendl in illinois. >> caller: hey, we subscribe to your newsletter and love it. you're the highway to investing. your past recommending as for farrow gas and we bought it, and i bought it at $28 and i bought in again when it went down. right now i'm at about $23 a share. with the news today, should i hold it, what should i do? >> remember, i did sour on the propane, it became cost prohibitive, all the companies are shooting each other to ribbons. the number was not good. i did not like the fact they had other bit of news that was not that positive. that's it. i don't know how much more it can go down, but there's a cop-out for me. i don't like farrel gas anymore. i'm sorry about any confusion it may have engendered. picture perfect is something, this market is not. there's the real and then the abstract. today, the macro abstract. "mad money" will be back after the break. coming up, seasons greetings. apple picking, jack-o'-lanterns and tonight, cramer is showing you how to get your portfolio set up to generate some spending cash. later, war on the web? the internet tech giants have been locked in a battle for search supremacy but is it finally time to say yes to yahoo! or should you search for a different stock? cramer decides. plus, industrial strength? prolodge us is operating a portfolio of warehouses and commercial real estate around the world. tonight, cramer is talking to the ceo to get a real read on the economy, just ahead. all coming up on "mad money." don't miss a second of "mad money." follow @jim cramer at tweeter. have a question? send him a tweet or send him an e-mail or give us a call. 1800-743-cnbc. miss something? head to madmoney.cnbc.com. it's time to change the way we clean. it's time to free ourselves from the smell and harshness of bleach. and free ourselves from worrying about the ones we love. new lysol power & free has more cleaning power than bleach. how? the secret is the hydrogen peroxide formula. it attacks tough stains and kills 99.9% of germs. new lysol power & free. powerful cleaning that's family friendly. another step forward in our mission for health. laura's being healthy and chewing her multivitamin. introducing one-a-day vitacraves for women! finally, a great-tasting gummy multivitamin designed... for women with more calcium and vitamin d. it's gummies for grown-ups. new one-a-day vitacraves for women. it's gummies for grown-ups. chances are, you're not made of money, so don't overpay for motorcycle insurance. geico, see how much you could save. anyone have occasional constipation, diarrhea, gas, bloating? yeah. one phillips' colon health probiotic cap each day helps defend against these digestive issues with three strains of good bacteria. approved! [ phillips' lady ] live the regular life. phillips'. no you don't, honey. yes, you do! don't! i've washed a few cupcake tins in my day... oh, so you're a tin expert now. is that... whoa nelly! hi, kitchen counselor here. he's actually right... with cascade complete. see cascade complete pacs work like thousands of micro-scrubbing brushes to help power away tough foods even in corners and edges. so, i was right, right? i've gotta run. more households use cascade dishwashing detergent than any other brand. here's one area where playing football and "mad money" ha a lot in common. we call it the check down. that's when the quarterback considers whom he should pass the ball to. checking down one receiver after another, find out who's open. who can score. and then hits him while he's uncovered. the best quarterbacks have a list in their heads about who to go to first, second, third, fourth, sometimes fifth. money managers perform the same check down too. we don't call it that. you can follow along and i do it for this show as i search for ideas that have enough merit to be noted on "mad money." how does it work? okay, today's the beginning of new quarter but what like to do at a start of the quarter is look at the winners or losers to see if anything piques my interest. i used to do it with my hedge fund. the best performer on the dow on the third quarter was home depot up 14%. however, we're no strangers to the thesis here and we already own the stock for the charitable trust, push it endlessly on "mad money." part of the check down is to find something new, home depot is anything but new. it is tried and retried but still true. how about procter & gamble up 14%. and i pulled down mcdonald, the ceo from the wall of shame. and he's introduced new products like the tipods that have taken a huge share. now it needs to rest or pull back. if it does, we'll be there both for the trust and for the show, but again, a well-covered name. how about among the dogs, tough, tough, tough. the number one loser is intel, down 15% last quarter. it sports a 4% yield, but i have no bull case for the stock. they pre-announce they're not in the fastest growing markets. behind that is hewlett-packard. nothing there. i just think it's the ultimate value trap. also ran pcs, decliner printer business. second-rate consulting no thanks. you know what i would rather do? i'd rather ground the ball intentionally than toss it to hewlett-packard. that's like a pick. nothing else to intrigue me and then i checked out the s&p. chiefly looking here for laggards because the winner is pcs. sprint up 69%s. tesaro is up way too much. you know i like sprint but to start without a new pull back seems ludicrous to me. under $5 that's a different story. how about the s&p's loser, amd down. and big lots up 24%. let's say, amd no, investable -- uninvestable. big lots is executing terribly. now, monster down 24 cent, i'm calling it intriguing, but still up 17% for the year. i remain concerned that the energy drinks are going to be called into question by the health authority. share loss, difficult to reverse. so my dow jones player is well covered. my s&p receiver can't get any separation. what's left? at this point in my favorite thing to check down is to see what index or group is so far behind the market that there's something that could play catch-up. with the market as hot as this one and i know people don't think it's hot but it really is, what i like to do is find a real laggard. almost every group is up. almost every one. lo and behold not only is there an index that isn't keeping pace, there's one that's down. that's the transports. they were off at one point very badly today. that's a terrific opportunity in and of itself. i know if there's nothing in the other indices, my intended receiver is going to be in the transport group. but which one? they're all down a lot. all looking terrible. i shouldn't say all. some aren't. first the airlines. i try to keep an open mind with my group. think of how terribly set-up the airlines are for the fourth quarter. you have a weak economy and high fuel costs. i don't think they come down. no to the airlines. trucking and freight, oh, man, with that preannouncement by federal express and then they gave a gloomy outlook, if fedex is doing badly i don't want to buy united parcels. they have gotten more and more competitive as the years have gone. conway has potential. ryder plunged earlier this year. lower forecast that was breathtaking. i'm taking a pass on that pass which brings me to the rails. oh, i like these stocks. unlike the price warring truckers and hapile of agarrchy. one can imagine how much they'll save if they switch to the natural gas engines. they have little overseas exposure. they have been hit and hit hard. generally because they carry coal and agricultural products and specifically the norfolk southern gave a nasty preannouncement. you should see something that positive that happens and i don't see anything positive happening at norfolk southern. and i don't see any comeback there. not an option. that leaves union pacific. unlike the other rails, union pacific ships powder river basin western coal that's the cheapest coal. so cheap that when natural gas goes above $3 like now and it's a real beach head there, the utilities switch to this fuel. they need fuel, and they'll go with coal. tons of auto exposure and a lot of this is new. oil as it's the one rail that's really moved aggressively into the eagle patches. ones that lack much you get the oil to the market. i like that. i always like the fact that stocks come down to levels much cheaper than where it's been historically. as the company continues to reprice contracts higher that's able to raise earnings. union pacific it's open and the one i'm going to toss to. if it's down will i toss to it. lest i'm worried about one defensive back out there and that's the chart which indicates that union pacific won't be able to hold on to the ball. otherwise i'll keep the ball myself. maybe dump it off into cash. remember, you don't always need to pass it. the bottom line, i have now completed my check down of fourth quarter opportunities based on the third quarter and i've limited it to one player -- the wide receiver that's union pacific. i'll go to him to pick up a quick six points or maybe more. after the break i'll try to make you more money. coming up, war on the web? the tech giants have been locked in a battle for search supremacy but after poaching one of google's top guns is it finally time to say yes to yahoo!? cramer decides. later industrial strength? prologis is at the center of the global supply chain operating a portfolio of distribution centers, warehouses and commercial real estate around the world. tonight, cramer is talking to the ceo to get a real read on the economy just ahead. all coming up on "mad money." this is rudy. his morning starts with arthritis pain. and two pills. afternoon's overhaul starts with more pain. more pills. triple checking hydraulics. the evening brings more pain. so, back to more pills. almost done, when... hang on. stan's doctor recommended aleve. it can keep pain away all day with fewer pills than tylenol. this is rudy. who switched to aleve. and two pills for a day free of pain. ♪ [ female announcer ] and try aleve for relief from tough headaches. the rid-x septic subscriber program helps prevent backups by sending you monthly doses right to your door so you will never forget to maintain your system. sign up at rid-x.com. but kate -- still looks like...kate. nice'n easy with colorblend technology gives expert highlights and lowlights. for color that's true to you. i don't know how she does it. with nice'n easy, all they see is you. with nice'n easy, new pink lemonade 5-hour energy? 5-hour energy supports the avon foundation for women breast cancer crusade. so i can get the energized feeling i need and support a great cause? i'm sold. pink lemonade 5-hour energy? yeah and a portion of every sale goes to the avon foundation for women breast cancer crusade. i'm sold. new pink lemonade 5-hour energy. get the alert, energized feeling you need and support breast cancer research and access to care. when a ceo does something incredible, we stand up and take notice here at "mad money." that's a why tonight i want to give a big round of applause to marisa mare, the new ceo of yahoo! who took the helm in july and gave birth to a baby boy. just last night. congratulations on becoming a parent and just as an aside as a father of two girls. i think it's wonderful that we live in a world where the female ceo of a fortune 500 company can have a baby and take a well deserved maternity leave. but this is "mad money," not mad maternity. when i said she deserves a round of applause i was talking about what she's doing for her other baby and that's yahoo!. that's because yahoo! never recovered from the crash of 2008. it looks like it's finally worth buying. yahoo! is one of the best-known internet brands on earth. i use it all the time. but it's suffered from years of mismanagement and undermanagement, which is why the stock has been flat lining for the last three years. just stuck trading around the same $15 or $16 range where it is right now. fabulous stock to sell calls against. the dilemma with yahoo! has been that the company has real value as it owns some terrific assets but in the past the people running the compan

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