>> lehrer: then two stories on the mexican drug violence. yone grillo of "global post" talks to residents of ciudad juarez, mexico, about a city under attack. >> we are getting the kidnappings, the carjacking, especially the extortions. i mean, it has killed the city. >> brown: judy woodruff gets an update from reporter angela kocherga on the spread of violence from northern mexico. >> lehrer: and, fred de sam lazaro explores hands-on healing with physician and author abraham verghese. >> i'm the first to admit that the resolution of a hand feeling the belly doesn't compare with the resolution of a cat scan scanning the belly but only my hand can say that it hurts at this spot, and not at this spot. >> lehrer: that's all ahead on tonight's "newshour." major funding for the pbs newshour has been provided by: and by the alfred p. sloan foundation. supporting science, technology, and improved economic performance and financial literacy in the 21st century. and with the ongoing support of these institutions and foundations. and... this program was made possible by the corporation for public broadcasting. and by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. thank you. >> lehrer: veteran new york congressman charlie rangel agreed to a last-minute plea deal today on ethics charges. but the full house ethics committee has yet to accept its terms. "newshour" congressional correspondent kwame holman begins our coverage as the rangel drama finally goes public. >> reporter: reports of the plea deal came hours after the veteran new york congressman arrived at his capitol hill office prepared for a tough day. >> 60 years ago, i survived a chinese attack in north korea, and as a result, i wrote a book that having survived that, that i haven't had a bad day since. today, i have to reassess that statement. >> reporter: for a time, it appeared rangel's prognosis was confirmed, as a house investigating panel met, and made public the charges. the list of 13 ethics violations included allegations that rangel used congressional letterhead to solicit funds for a public service center named after him at the city college of new york and failed to report more than $600,000 on financial disclosure forms. other charges involved mishandling taxes on rental income from a villa rangel owns in the dominican republic. and his alleged misuse of four rent-controlled apartments in new york city, including one as a campaign office. texas democrat gene green chaired the panel that's been investigating rangel for 21 months. >> one of the most difficult tasks assigned to a member of congress is to sit in judgment of colleague. the task is more difficult when person has befriended, i am one. i know all parties look forward to final resolution. >> reporter: rangel's attorney submitted a written statement to the committee saying, the undisputed evidence in the record is that congressman rangel did not dispense any political favors, that he did not intentionally violate any law, rule or regulation, and that he did not misuse his public office for private gain. a short time later, news of the tentative, last-minute agreement emerged, out of negotiations between rangel's attorneys and non-partisan lawyers for the house ethics committee. talks had been ongoing for days, but the hang-up was rangel's refusal to admit to certain charges. details of what the congressman did agree to, in the end, were scarce, but members of the ethics committee were reviewing the proposed settlement. the move would spare rangel a house trial this fall that could have embarrassed the 20-term lawmaker and become a potential liability for his democratic colleagues this november. house speaker nancy pelosi addressed that concern earlier in the day, at her weekly briefing. >> holding a high ethical standard is a serious responsibility that we have. the process will work, it's bipartisan. the chips will have to fall where they may, politically, but upholding a high ethical standard is a top priority for us. >> reporter: two democrats-- betty sutton of ohio and walt minnick of idaho-- had already called for rangel to resign. and house republican leader john boehner used the rangel matter to issue a broader attack. >> this is a sad moment for our institution. and, this isn't about charlie rangel. this is about speaker pelosi's most glaring promise that she's broken, when she said in '06 that it was time to drain the swamp. i think speaker pelosi owes the american people some answers to their questions. >> reporter: rangel already stepped down as chair of the tax writing ways and means committee last march. that was after the ethics panel found he improperly accepted caribbean trips from corporations. >> lehrer: and we get more now from "newshour" political editor david chalian. david, there is a deal on the table. the lawyers have accepted it but that is as far as it's gone at this point? >> well, the rangel lawyers have put forth a deal. but the ethics committee staff, the nonpartisan lawyers and the nonpartisan staff there still reviewing it. and that may take some time. republicans are not eager to jump and accept this deal. they said today in the hearing, jim, you know, he had... charlie rangel had time throughout the entire investigative process to strike a deal. and as one republican member of the committee put it today, we're now in the trial phase. so they're not eager to accept this deal. but the fact that charlie rangel got to a place where he's willing to admit some level of wrongdoing, that he was able to put together a package with his lawyers, present it to the committee and say here's a tentative agreement towards settlement, now the ethics committee needs to review that. >> lehrer: is there any reporting that indicates that it is republicans versus democrats on making this decision? >> well, it's more just reading the tea leaves of how they spoke in the open hearing today. as you know, and kwame was talking about there, today was the first organizational public meeting of this a jude ca tory body inside the ethics committee that will basically serve as judge and jury in this process if it goes to a full try. and just listening to the way the democrats and republicans were speak, they were speaking somewhat differently. it was the republican members that kept pointing out we're done with the investigation. he had his opportunity to settle. we're now moving to a trial. democrats more were speaking to, we just need to make sure this process moves forward in the most fair way it can. >> yeah. all right. now for the record here, we should point out that rangel was not present in this hearing, the meeting lasted less than 30 minutes, right, at the house ethics committee. >> that's right. cohave appeared if he wanted but today was not a day of the chairwoman's loftgren, the woman without who heads up the ethics committee said today was in the a day to present the evidence. today was simply a day to read forth the 13 counts of alleged violations and to set forth the process for a potential trial should it get to that in september when congress returns. that's when we would probably hear from charlie rangel. >> refresh our memorys about the house ethics. first of all, how many members are on there. >> on this body, because this isn't the full committee. on this body that will look at this trial, it's four republicans and four democrats. as you know, the house ethics committee, it's the only committee in the house that hasek wall numbers of democrats and re7 kanses. it doesn't matter who is in the majority. it truly is a bipartisan process. it has a nonpartisan staff and for them to find charlie rangel guilty, if you will, of any one of these charges, it requires five votes. so the vote,. >> lehrer: not you-- unanimous but a majority vote. >> but it technically would have to be bipartisan. not just one party can make the vote happen for guilt. so the vote would, by nature, by math, have to be a bipartisan one if it gets to that. >> is there any way to know that, whether the democrats are really pushing to have this thing resolved now because the trial, the public trial would now be seen as even a bigger problem for democrats beyond charlie rangel is that still hanging out there? >> now you got to the politics of this and you heard leader boehner. he said this isn't about charlie rangel, this is much broader about speaker pelosi because they want to make this a national issue for them to use the republicans in this campaign season and democrats are wary about it. they do not want some distraction in what is already a very tough political environment for them. they do not want this as part of the campaign seasonment and here's why. it is because it is just stinks of washington as usual. here's the group that promised a lot of change in 2006 and 2008. nancy pelosi drained the swamp. and this just reeks of washington as usual. and they don't want that at all in this anti-washington, anti-establishment year. but yes, to your question about the reporting, the leader of the democratic campaign committee has met with charlie rangel twice in recent weeks. that's not just friendly conversation. i'm sure we know that democrats have been eager to push him towards the settlement to resolve this without a public trial. >> meanwhile charlie rangel may have his own views about what is best for him beyond the party. >> no doubt about it. he is a legacy that he is watching. he has been there 40 years. he already got to the hardest part which is stepping down from the ways and means committee. once he realizes he is never going to have that gavel again that may help him come to terms with the process going forward. >> okay, david, thank you. >> thank you. >> and still to come on the newshour. >> brown: still to come on the "newshour": the effectiveness of the stimulus money; arizona's immigration fallout; more deadly drug violence in mexico and the healing physician. but first, the other news of the day. here's hari sreenivasan in our newsroom. >> sreenivasan: afghan president hamid karzai complained today that u.s. and nato forces are not attacking taliban sanctuaries. he said, the "sources of funding and training of terrorism lie outside afghanistan"-- an apparent reference to pakistan. this week's huge leak of u.s. military documents depicted pakistan's spy agency collaborating with the taliban. karzai said the leaks have also jeopardized afghan informants. >> whether those individuals acted legitimately or illegitimately in providing information to the nato forces-- they are lives. and those lives will be in danger now. therefore, we consider that extremely irresponsible and an act that one cannot overlook. >> sreenivasan: in washington, defense secretary robert gates also criticized wikileaks for releasing 91,000 classified documents. he warned of severe consequences for u.s. troops and u.s. allies. >> it's amazing how much trust matters in relationships whether with governments or individuals around the world. it seems to me as a result of this massive breach of security we have considerable repair work to do in terms of reassuring people and rebuilding trust. >> sreenivasan: gates also said the defense department is now clamping down on access to information in the field meanwhile, the body of a second u.s. navy man was recovered in eastern afghanistan. he and another petty officer disappeared in logar province last month. the other man's body was found sunday. have not explained why the two nato have not explained why the two americans were out by themselves, in dangerous country. the scandal at arlington national cemetery may be getting worse. that word came as u.s. senators raised new alarms about the confusion over who's buried where. the problems with mixed up and misidentified graves at arlington appeared to mushroom today. at a senate oversight hearing, democrat claire mccaskill said it could be much worse than initial estimates of up to 211 burial sites. >> the problems with the graves at arlington may be far more extensive than previously acknowledged. at a conservative estimate, 4,900 to 6,600 graves may be unmarked, improperly marked, or mislabeled on the cemetery's maps. >> sreenivasan: mccaskill cited her own investigation, but gave no details. last month, army investigators blamed arlington's problems on years of shoddy record-keeping and mismanagement. in short order, the two men tasked with overseeing the cemetery were forced out. today, the former superintendent, john metzler, acknowledged he's ultimately to blame. >> as the senior government official in charge of the cemetery, i accept full responsibility for all of my actions and for the actions of my team. and i want to express my sincere regrets to any family who these failures might have caused them pain. >> sreenivasan: metzler ran arlington for 19 years. but he suggested the disclosures of misidentified graves surprised him. that angered lawmakers like republican scott brown of massachusetts. >> i'm an attorney, before i got here. i tell you. i'd have a lot of fun with you in a deposition because i don't feel we're getting the straight talk here. >> sreenivasan: metzler's former deputy, thurman higginbotham, generally blamed out-moded record keeping. >> it was always conceptual that anything done by hand for 140- plus years that there would have to be some errors somewhere. >> sreenivasan: higginbotham refused to answer most other questions, citing his right against self-incrimination. the estimate on how much oil has spilled into michigan's kalamazoo river rose sharply today. the environmental protection agency said more than one million gallons of oil may have leaked from a pipeline since monday. the oil could reach lake michigan, 80 miles downstream. and, in new orleans, the government point man on the gulf oil spill, thad allen, said the effort to plug the blown well could begin by this weekend. on wall street today, the dow jones industrial average lost more than 30 points to close at 10,467. the nasdaq fell nearly 13 points to close at 2,251. toyota has announced yet another recall in north america. 400,000 vehicles in the u.s. and canada may have steering problems. the recall is mostly for avalons from the 2000 to 2004 model years. toyota plans to fix the problem by replacing a part on the steering column-- a procedure that takes about two hours at dealerships. those are some of the day's major stories. now, back to jeff. >> brown: and we turn to the continuing debate over the impact of the stimulus and other programs to help the economy in the past and, perhaps, once again. the latest economic data showed again just tough the road to recovery is. first-time claims for jobless benefits dipped a bit again, but not by enough to suggest the overall unemployment rate is falling. and the private firm realty trac reported home foreclosures in the first half of the year were up in three quarters of the largest metropolitan areas. faced with those facts, president obama today stressed his summer-long mantra: the numbers are bad, but without the federal stimulus he championed, they'd be much worse. >> because of what we did, america as a whole is in a different place today. our economy is growing instead of shrinking. our private sector's been adding jobs for six straight months instead of losing them. >> brown: and a new report released yesterday may help the president make that case. economists mark zandi and alan blinder said the stimulus of nearly $800 billion, plus the wall street bailout, known as tarp, and other measures, likely warded off an outright depression. the study found that without those programs the gross domestic product would be 6.5% lower; eight million more people would be unemployed and prices would be falling as deflation set in. but such benefits also come with high costs. last week, the white house projected a deficit of nearly $1.48 trillion for this fiscal year. that's down slightly from an earlier estimate, but still amounts to 10% of the nation's total economic output. at the same time, republicans continue to charge all that spending is doing little to help the economy. and they warn of tax hikes to come. north carolina's virginia foxx spoke on the house floor today. >> $6.1 trillion that's how much money the federal government has spent in just the first 18 months of the obama presidency, washington is spending $17 million every minute of every hour of every day, there's only one way to feed that kind of destructive habit: washington needs more of your tax dollars and that's exactly what democrats on capitol hill and the white house are talking about. >> brown: in the meantime, federal reserve chairman ben bernanke has said some stimulus outlays are still necessary. but recent polls show public support for stimulus spending and its potential to revive the economy has waned. and we join this debate now, with mark zandi, co-author of the newly-released paper and chief economist at moody's analytics. and john taylor, economics professor at stanford university and senior fellow at the hoover institution. he was undersecretary of the treasury in the george w. bush administration. mark zandi, it's a pretty big claim that government action prevented another depression. give us the outline of the argument for that? >> well, i'm not arguing that any individual aspect of the policy response was good or bad. i mean i think we can debate that for a long time to come and we will. but i think if you take the totality of the response, what the federal reserve z what the bush administration, what the obama administration have done, what congress have done, it's that to tallity that that-- totality that has brought an end to the great recession and jump-started an economic recovery jns john taylor, the totality lead us out or prevented another depression, what do you see? >> i don't think there's any evidence for that. you look at the totality which i have been doing for several years now, looking at each program and adding them up. and i find a very small effect. in fact, to some extent some of the early actions i think were damaging. some of the actions taken, actually i think, lead to some of the panics that we saw. so no, i just don't think there's any evidence when you look at the numbers, when you see what happened when people reacted to the stimulus, it did very little good. >> brown: well, mark zandi, i mean we can get into economic models here and it will get into the weeds quick but give us an example. give us something concrete that allows us to see an impact. >> okay. let's take the recovery act. the fiscal stimulus that is much criticized. the maximum benefit of that fiscal stimulus through the tax cuts of the tim lus and through the spending increases hit their apex last sumner june, july and august of last summer. and that is precisely when the recession ended. the exact precise timing. so that, i think, is some evidence, at least it is very suggestive that the stimulus, the recovery act was very important to bringing an end to the great recession. >> brown: john taylor, what do you see coming from that stimulus? >> when you look at the specific things that were done, so sending checks to people, to jump-start consumption. you look at the checks sent out, and you don't see consumption jump-starting or moving. in other words, it didn't have the effect that it was advertised to have. and i say the recovery is starting earlier, quite frankly, the panic in the fall of 2008 was behind us by december, january. and also i would say the recovery that we had and unfortunately it's now fizzling. largely due to business investment. in fact that recovery is investment, not government purchases. and the slow down is because investment has slowed down and people are getting nervous about the increased debt that is partly resulted from the stimulus. >> brown: just to stay with you