speak to you this evening on behalf of the pacific avenue neighborhood association. my name is robin tucker and i am the president, share of leadership responsibilities for the organization. our organization s area of responsibility that we take very seriously is to support our neighbors in those efforts that we especially feel not only impact our own neighborhood, but also impacts contiguous neighborhoods, specifically russian hill and the middle polk neighborhood association area as well. i hope that you receive their e-mails that objected to this project as well. i m appearing before you this evening to object to the property on at least three bases. one, the project, as mr. low stated, has at least the appearance that it is a matter of time before it s converted to a high-end condo unit or condo building. it has already occurred along pacific avenue in two buildings between market and haight street where we lost a public garage and we lost one affordable housing building to three penthouses in one and two penthouses in the other, and then high-end condos in the buildings. we can ill afford to lose any more affordable housing in our neighborhood. it is for this reason, priority reason, that we decided to appear and to ask mr. low to be the project lead on this particular project. two, the elevator that is that shows in the plan appears to take away some of the area square footage of some of the existing units in the building. i know there is at least one family in that building that has three children. they re nonspeaking english family, or the parents are. and to reduce the square footage in that particular unit or any of the units in the building i think would be a travesty. the parking in our neighborhood is nonexistent. the public parking garages that did exist fell to high-end condo conversions. we have none in our neighborhood. i personally have driven around for hours looking for a parking space. removal of two street public parking spaces is really unacceptable. please deny this project permit and deny the associated variance. thank you very much. next speaker, please. good evening. i come here i live inside the building at 1531-1521. i live at 1525 jones for over 30 years 30 plus years. and there s many concerns i have about this project. excuse me, ma am, sorry to interrupt you. do you wish to submit your name for the record? my name is rita del sombrano. thank you. my concern is, number one, the scope of the building and also there is an issue around security of the building right now. when i heard about this, the private elevator and for the past, the winter months, the lights have not been adjusted. and we ve had homeless people sleeping up in the, up in the loft. but i d also like to address how many people are living in the building at this moment. three of the buildings three of the apartments are empty, the slots are empty and three of them people are living in. above me lives a chinese family with three kids in a one bedroom apartment. or maybe it s even less than that. next to me is an israeli couple that have the flat next to me. and the two, my original apartment on the top floor, is the apartment i think the present owners want to renovate and connect with the top floor. so, my concern is just the scope of it and the lack of communication with the neighbors and myself about the building itself. and, so, i would hope that you would look at it look at the perspective of this is also affecting not just myself, but other people in the building, and probably other people who can no longer afford to live in san francisco. so, i would like you to take that into consideration. thank you. next speaker, please. good evening, president fong, members of the commission. i need to respond to this. i need to respond to the architect s response to our dr. the first thing he mentioned was that in the appendix, he had excuse me, ma am, before you get started, do you wish to speak submit your name for the record? oh, i m eva low chan. thank you. sorry. anyway, there was a dbi inspection of the building in july 1963 where they had called for the penthouse that is constantly coming up in this meeting here, the penthouse had to be dismantled at that time. however, after careful review and inspection, dbi decided that the penthouse could remain with the express understanding that it be remained as a laundry room, which it wows. and it had to be uninhabited. further down the architect s response, he talks about our penthouse. well, when my parents bought the property over 65 years ago, the small room referred to as a penthouse was part of the building. the exterior rear wall [speaker not understood] continues the same pattern of siding up. and three of the walls are the same siding as the building. and i feel that that is very well integrated. we never added it on because it was there. this little 12 by 12 foot laundry room was also for the tenants to dry their clothes. what they had to do was walk up three flights of stairs because at that time there were no laundry laundromatses down the street or all over nowadays. so, they climbed up three flights of stairs to hang their laundry and they needed a place to put their laundry baskets and other paraphernalia. ~ then they were so tired they probably want to have a place to rest, and this was for them. and i remember when people didn t have washers and they would use scrub boards and we would be scrubbing away and they would carry their laundry up the stairs. now, you know, this is a 12 by 12 room. it s like a poster size room and then you can t compare it with a 1300 square foot addition that is being added on at the fifth floor. and i think that considering how they re adding this building, it is out of scale, it is out of form, and the style is so contemporary it doesn t fit the rest of the buildings in that neighborhood at all. well, i urge the commission to reconsider and deny the permit. thank you. next speaker, please. president fong, members of the committee, mr. sanchez, my name is ed kuan. i own and live in the property directly across the street from the subject property. i have three reasons to oppose this proposal plan because, one, in the fifth floor to the building will block my afternoon sunlight to my property, which my wife and i enjoy for past 60 years. i myself live there since 1943. two, i believe the open [speaker not understood] will create and decay noe i nuisance to our peaceful neighborhood. ~ noisy my family and i feel it will invade our privacy and [speaker not understood] people will be able to look down through our window. four, we strongly object to this project going forward and hope the board supports the people who have owned and lived in this neighborhood for many, many years. thank you. any other speakers? in support of the dr? ~ did i call benita chan, jennifer mai, rose low? okay. thank you, president fong, members of the commission. my name is donna logan. i represent the property at 15 30 jones street, my fellow owners live directly across the street from the project. i d simply like to say we support opposition to the approval of this project for the many reasons that have already been articulated and i don t need to repeat, but we are in full agreement with the premise that this is an unsuitable project for our neighborhood. thank you. good evening. my name is benita combs. thank you for this opportunity to speak. for the many reasons already spoken, i oppose this. i live across the street. the sunlight will affect our building. the scale of the project is out of character for the block. and i m also on a top floor. and a building that s higher up than i am will affect my privacy. right now i have curtains on the bottom half of the windows and it will require something else going on. but i think the project should be scaled back and i would hope for better communication with the tenants and the neighbors on the block if it were to continue. but i owe poe it as it now stands. thank you very much. good evening, president fong, commissioners. and mr. sanchez, mr. [speaker not understood]. my name is jennifer may. i live in the neighborhood and my family has lived in this neighborhood for many generations. ~ mae we have enjoyed the small scale neighborhood design all our live and we believe if this project is allowed to move forward, we believe that quality of life would be at risk. so, for any kind of consideration you may give us, we would ask for you to deny the project permit. thank you. thank you. good evening. my name is sabrina louie. i am a property owner and lived on the top floor of third floor of 12 26 jackson street which is perpendicular to the subject property to the west for many years. the architecture and topography go hand in hand in our neighborhood and work together with a sense of harmony. this proposed project goes against what exists and has existed for many years in knob hill. our third floor rear bedroom and family room windows, from that we enjoy lots of natural light and privacy. and the proposed rooftop penthouse addition with the deck will be built today edge of the building which is already unusually close to my windows. ~ and property. our valued privacy and sense of open space will be less will be left and gone forever. to benefit one owner. ~ so, i respectfully ask the board to reject the proposed application for 1521-1531 jones street request for variance. thank you. any additional speakers? yes, [speaker not understood]. president fong, members of the commission, mr. sanchez, i have two concerns that i d like to put before the commission. the first concern is i m sorry, ma am, do you wish to state your name for the record? oh, i m sorry, rose low. thank you. the first concern is loss of affordable housing. the project as presented represents a pattern of development, reducing the inventory of affordable housing. the fact is the six-unit building as it is now contains six units affordable housing. three units are empty and have been empty for some time. one of the tenants has lived in the building over 33 years. another apartment is rented to a non-english speaking couple with three children, four persons in a one-bedroom unit. all the proposed upgrades and additions of a fourth floor 1200 square foot penthouse, elevated for the owner s benefit and use, and a garage, will be costly. the potential for recouping their investment will obviously be through high-end tic or condo conversions. result is six units of affordable housing will be displaced. it will displace sick six families who cannot live in san francisco if there are no affordable housing. ~ we can ill afford to take away affordable housing in san francisco and replace it with expensive tic or condos. my second concern is how the project will reduce public parking. it now takes at least 30 minutes driving around to find a parking space within one or two blocks of where one lives in the neighborhood. there are no convenient public parking garages within three blocks of this site. installing a garage with three parking spaces will require a driveway that will eliminate one to two parking spaces. it is wrong to take away one or two parking spaces from the neighbors and their families and friends to accommodate one individual the luxury of having the spaces for their own use. the knob hill neighborhood is very difficult verse. it includes many families with school-age children who have lived here for many generations. it ha many long-term tenants who live here 30 to 40 years. the people in this community wish to preserve the treasured character of their neighborhood. thank you for giving me the opportunity to respectfully ask that building permit for 1521-31 jones street and associated variance denied due to the negative impact it will have on the neighborhood. thank you very much. any additional speakers? you can go ahead and start talking. it will come up. commissioner, i am jerald, dr. jerald [speaker not understood], a psychologist and my practice involves teaching and consulting in psychology, in particular with organizations and organizational behavior. in this particular instance i work with mr. low and i observed absolutely amazing, exciting organizational behavior. exactly 4 37 people were quite excited to express their negative reaction to this particular project. and it is to your advantage that we ended up getting a petition for these people unless they d all be here. they d all like to talk to you and you would have been here for days. but we know that this commission has already decided to approve the subject variance. so, the only reason for this meeting, this hearing is for you to consider the attitudes, opinions, and beliefs of the people who would like to be here one way or another, if not in person, by petition. and you saw the people who they felt negatively affected of any physical change in their habitat. and they saw this so clearly that they asked to have the petition. we didn t actually solicit. people came around asking, couldn t we come how about a petition? it s interesting to note that your discovery review document indicated there were zero people in favor of this project where 11 were registered as being opposed. 11 was a good start, but 4 37 decided to add their names to that and i could not emphasize that more than i can at the moment. with that in mind, i petition you not in any way to turn your back or ignore these people. these are the people of that particular neighborhood. you have in your possession a copy of this, and this is only the first hundred or so people that signed up. every one of those signatures is represented by a location. the subject location is right here. so, it s immediate, very immediate in proximity. finally, i believe it would be absolutely absurd, absolutely absurd for you not to consider exercising your discretion sir, your time is up. thank you very much. any additional speakers in support of the dr? plural, drs? okay. project sponsor, you have five minutes. good evening, commissioners. my name is matt wren. this is patricia [speaker not understood] toby morris, our architect to answer any design questions you might have. patricia and i have lived in this neighborhood for the past seven years, literally five blocks from the subject property. we are not property developers. this project is to create a home that can house our expanding family. over the last 15 months we have done absolutely everything asked of us by the planning commission, fire, dbi, and the residential design team. in addition to this, we have tried to work extensively with our most impacted neighbor, mr. low. we believe the resulting project is first and foremost in character with the neighborhood. these photos show a number of buildings within a one to two-block radius that demonstrates the variety and type of buildings that exist literally within one to two blocks of the subject property. our proposed addition is not visible from most public spaces. this diagram depicts the sight line from the opposing sidewalk looking back up at the building. the proposed addition isn t visible from most public spaces in part as a result of the major setbacks we have created on all four sides. this diagram shows the yellow blocking is the setbacks within our lot, the white box in the middle is the proposed addition, and as you can see we have created significant setbacks on all four sides. importantly, this proposed project maintains all existing rent control units. it does not merge any dwelling units. and we are utilizing a unit that we receive vacant when we purchased the building which allows us to move in and owner occupy. in addition to this, there are many life safety and quality of life improvements that will benefit all residents of the building. these include replacing the failing brick foundation, performing a full-size mike upgrade, sprinklers throughout this old dry wood frame building, replacing windows, remodeling the entrance way and stairwell, implementing solar panels for efficient energy, and creating three car parkseses at the expense of just half a street space. ~ the reality is that these drs are about views and as such i d like to share with you some facts concerning the project and our negotiation with mr. low. in our rebuttal we also have an alternative design that we would be comfortable with that would further protect mr. low s views. mr. low collected 400 plus petition signatures on the basis of two strong statements in his petition form. the first is that buildings that exceed 40 feet in height are detrimental to this neighborhood. the second is that he explicitly claimed no buildings on this block currently exceed 40 feet. mr. low s own penthouse on this block is 50 feet. this diagram here demonstrates that. the blue square on the left shows the height of mr. low s penthouse standing at 50 feet tall. the yellow line, the yellow box shows our proposed edition which would also be 50 feet tall. the red horizontal line above the yellow box shows our zoned maximum height limit of 65 feet and demonstrates that we are materially inside that zoned limit. mr. low s dr submission also included this elevation, which demonstrates our proposed addition, superimposed on the building to demonstrate its relative size versus the neighboring buildings. what s missing from this is that he is conveniently failed to show his own fourth floor penthouse in this submission. this is a photograph of mr. low s penthouse. clearly it does exist. this photo is of the rear of the two buildings. the red dotted lines on the right are mr. low s existing fourth floor penthouse that comes right to the boundary both on the rear wall and the side wall. the dotted yellow line shows our proposed addition with a setback. and this also demonstrates the stiffing that comes down with the gradient of the street. there have been many compromises already conceded to mr. low through this process. we have already reduced the front height by one foot. we have modified our rear roof design from sloping to flat. we have also reduced the rear roof height by 9 inches. we have relocated our south egress stairs to the front of the building. these egress stairs now come through the middle of a bedroom. we also created entire length side setbacks as opposed to simply matching mr. low s lightwells. in addition to this we have made multiple attempts to work and communicate with mr. low. we have sent him seven letters dating back to september 2011. we have extended three offers to meet and discuss the project, none of which he accepted. we had one meeting which was being arrangeedth and facilitated by elizabeth in the planning department which was both agreed to and scheduled for november in 2012. mr. low canceled this meeting on one day s notice citing that he opposes this project carte blanche and he thinks the meeting would be a waste of time. mr. low maintains significant golden gate bridge views even with our current proposal. i appreciate this is a little difficult to see, but this image shows the view out from mr. low s penthouse out over the golden gate bridge and the bay. the inner cone which is 15 degrees wide depicts the width of the golden gate bridge. the other cone at 45 degrees depicts the breadth of view that mr. low has from his penthouse with our proposal in its current form. this diagram shows the point at which we ve taken these lines from and extrapolated out. and as you can see from within mr. low s penthouse we have been reasonably conservative from the point at which we have taken these view lines. as you move west towards his towards the rear of his building, this cone expands and expands his field of view. in addition to this, both of our north and south abutting neighbors have eight foot rear yards and this includes mr. low s building. our proposed addition has between 15 and 22-foot rear yard.
and i d never heard of this, but they make the guy when they re having movie sex they make the guy wear a thing called a [bleep] sock. it s totally true. it s a [bleep] sock, and, basically, they put a stocking on your wiener, and then they pull it through your legs, which that s appealing. that s like how serial killers [bleep] [ breathing heavily ] snap. you got to break their neck at the end. [ laughs ] oh, come on. you got to. [ laughs ] but i had never heard of the [bleep] sock because i ve never done a sex scene in a movie. done a bunch of movies. no sex scenes. and i know my place. i know i m not gonna get to do a sex scene in a movie. i think if i did, it would be a horror movie, and i won t be the one having the sex. like, some hot, young couple getting it on, hot-young-couple style. and i m, like, the creepy janitor watching them. or the inbred, redneck hotel owner just climbed in through the window. and they re getting it on, hot-teen style over in the corner, and i m over there going, [chuckles] get that [bleep] get that [bleep] boy! and the guy will be like, what the [bleep] then i ll hit him with a shovel. and then it ll be time for some night-digging. you guys have been awesome, man. thanks. [ cheers and applause ] captions by vitac www.vitac.com from comedy central s world news headquarters in new york, this is the daily show with jon stewart. ( cheers and applause ) jon: hey, welcome to the daily show. my name is jon stewart. our guest is donnie wahlberg going to be joining us later on the program on the. lonnie anderson. that s the woman i would be. ( applause ) if you can be any animal, if you can be any woman but nobody ever asked me are you satisfied with you? (laughing) a little bit of housekeeping. last week we did a very clever bit on our program called 19th century news. within the bit we had very witty fun concerning mississippi s just recently ratifying the 13th amendment. agreeing to end slavery, a mere 148 years after. after the rest of us. as many of you know, if i am bringing up something that we did on the show last week, i m probably about to apologize for it. maybe i m apologizing to mississippi as painting it to some kind of reluctant entrant to modern morality. yes, no. it concerns a former mississippi secretary of state who presided over a 1995 attempt to ratify the 13th amendment. it failed due to a bureaucratic snafu their former secretary of state failed to send a copy of the resolution to the federal registrar. jon: classic. here s my impression of him mailing mississippi s 13th amendment ratification to the federal registrar. so glad we did this. that s really nice. let me just put this in the mailbox. oh, what fun! let me explain what we did just there. we used the gentleman by the name of dick molfuss largely because his name was dick molfuss as an avitar for casual bigotry forgetting that perhaps dick molfuss is a real person with a real record on civil rights. you may be thinking to yourself, couldn t you just look that up? yeah, we could have. or, or we could have remained smugly satisfied with the funny name. we went with b mainly because i am a made 12-year-old boy trapped in a 75-year-old man s body. so as it turns out dick molfuss don t get tickled by the name, johnny boy it turns out dick molfuss has a long and distinguished record of speaking out for civil rights in mississippi. he s an honorable and good man. who in the 90s led the charge on big voting rights reforms there. in 1989 he spoke at a 25th anniversary memorial for the three civil rights activists murdered outside philadelphia mississippi during the summer, a speech that earned mr. molpus death threats. apparently bitter racists live longer than you would think. anyway, we found out all this, i d say, about a half hour after it aired on a thursday night i might add. not the best night for us to make a mistake. sincere apologies to mr. molpus. he did not ask us for apologize. no one contacted us to complain. my guess is they don t even know we re alive and are probably too busy trying to make a difference in this world, to care. we apologize because, well, we like to believe there s still a little dick molpus in all of us. ( cheers and applause ) and that even elitist pricks like me can sometimes still pick up that 3:00 a.m. conscience wake-up call and that. (music). that sounded pretty good, man. what s next on the show? the commonwealth is preparing to repeal a 136-year-old law that makes it illegal for unmarried virginian couples to live together. jon: damn you, south. do not make me [bleep] on you. so you re saying virginia s not really for lovers? next you ll tell me michigan s not for bringing lemonade and condoms to someone who turns out to be nbc s. we ll apologize tomorrow. i guess we ll find out when virginia passed that law in tonight s episode of 19th century news. hello, everybody. my most he s teemed viewers, tis i your humble host. my guest tonight florence nightingale. she s written a new book on something called antiseptics and their role in fighting deadly infections on the irish. first the 1800s people. first, a brief word from our sponsor. when it s friday night and you don t have to be anywhere til tuesday. anyway, our top story tonight, virginia has banned living in sin. no longer shall unmarried men and women terrorize our good state with their privates behind closed doors relationship. in technology news there s a brand new labor saving device on the market called chinese people. chinese people because building a railroad is expensive. and hard. wow. that show is something. isn t it? we have come a long way in this country. i cannot believe we used to exploit chinese labor to build our technology. ( cheers and applause ) of course, that virginia no cohabitation law probably hasn t been enforced for 100 years it hasn t been enforced apparently since the 1990s when day care operator darlene davis had her business license held up because she was living with her man. jon: are you [bleep] kidding me? they had to be stopped? most normal states would just be happy they found each other. virginia, but this is only a start in virginia s effort to stay current with the last century. the statue has been one of those lingering legal curiosities like the law against washing your mule on the sidewalk, no hunting on sundays and our famous anti-sodomy statute sniem your famous anti-sodomy statute? you talk about that the same way masons talked about their hot dogs. virginia, come for the beaches. stay because we incarcerated you forgetting a blow job. and this isn t the first victory for the state senator who spearheaded the repeal adam evan he has targeted old laws before i repealed the law against serving sangria about six years ago. we re working at them one at a time. jon: why is that guy so familiar? wait a minute. is that the same the same man of the sidewalk mule washer stand. virginia, stop that man. ( cheers and applause ) jon: welcome back to the show. as you may know instead of steep budget cuts known as the sequester rapidly approaching is the subject of our new recurring segment. congress passed and the president signed into law the sequester, $1.2 trillion in automatic spending cuts over ten years that would kick in unless we came up with a cooperative deficit reduction plan. we put this into place because. why did we do that again? when all sides agreed to the sequester a year-and-a-half ago, those automatic across-the-board sending cuts, were supposed to be so painful it would force the president and congress to make a deal. jon: so what happens if this sequester kicks in? just in time for spring national parks like yosemite will see their services cut. jon: all right. i wasn t going there anyway. 700,000 civilian defense department workers to take one day off a week, a 20% pay cut. jon: as long as iran doesn t attack on a thursday, you know. i m sure it will be fine the sequester could devastate our economy. fewer f.b.i. agents kids kicked out of child care program fewer air traffic controllers. nearly $4 million could be slashed to provide males for needy shortages. in texas nearly 10,000 fewer children will receive vaccines for diseases like whooping cough and the flu. jon: holy [bleep]. we re doomed. we re going to have to get jobs feeding sick children to old people. why did i only buy the hat? (crying) please tell me there s still time to fix things. this is the final countdown. we are just four days from the sequester deadline. jon: four days. that s not enough time to do anything. can t even tow a cruiseship of diarrhea to alabama in four days. are they at least working hard on fixing this some lawmakers left town for a week-long recess president obama played golf with tiger woods in florida last weekend sniem i m sure tiger woods has a lot of sequester advice. i don t know, mr. president. did you ever try hitting it with a club? i don t know. for more on the sequester we go to samantha bee in washington. the sequester is four days away. we re staring into the economic abyss. what is going on down there reporter: nothing, jon. everything will work out just fine. no need to panic. not like we re four days away from everything we know as the american way of life being destroyed. which is why i have in no way spent the last eight hours having sex with literally everything that moves. jon: sam, i mean you really sound like the world is ending reporter: that s right, jon. if you were smart you d be bucket listing too. jon: i want to bucket list. the president is bucket listing reporter: golf with tiger woods? before that, the miami heat? an afternoon with the ladies of modern family. you know the first lady s bucket listing too jon: what is she bucket listing reporter: the bangs, jon. nobody over the age of 16 gets bangs unless they know the end is near. that is not all she s been up to. dancing like beyonce with jimmy fallon. giving away the oscar for best picture. personally i would have gone with winning an oscar. you know, it s on my list. jon: if this were true shouldn t they be warning the entire country about this reporter: yeah because this administration is all about transparency. they want us to know everything. benghazi, drones. that room in the white house basement that is full of biden clones. jon: biden clones? forget it. what about the republicans? they have to know about this. why aren t they going bucket list crazy reporter: you mean willfully blocking all the president s ideas. come on, jon. he even went on a state of the union dream date with ted nugent. that is their bucket list. they just haven t updated it in half a century. getting their baseball gloves signed by herman killbrew is still on there jon: that won t happen. just out of curiosity what s next on your bucket list reporter: not talking to you, that s for sure. if you excuse me i am off to shoot a panda with a cross bow. jon: your dying dream is to kill a panda reporter: no, jon. it s to eat one. you have to kill it first. jon: all right. thank you, sam. ( cheers and applause ) jon: welcome back. my guest tonight stars on cbs s blue blood. also the executive producer of tnt s new reality show about boston s police officers called boston s finest i don t want to get up at 5:00 in the morning and go to boxing. i think of being in a foot chase and losing. there s the chance you ll be fighting for your life on the side of the road where your back-up is a minute away. i have to stay on top of my game. it could save my life. it could save my partner s life. dig it in. dig it in. that s a tremendous amount of responsibility that i take very seriously. jon: please welcome donnie wahlberg. ( cheers and applause ) my man. look at you. sharp as a tack, my friend. sharp as a tack. how are you? i m good. i felt the need to dress up tonight jon: can i tell you something? much respect to you. many of our guests come here and they believe it s the last stop, the qaboos. they come in with like a sack, a thing. they don t care. you, sir, i care jon: thank you i care jon: i appreciate that. now, you re playing a new york city cop on your show. you re doing a show about boston cops. i feel like you are getting ready to pull some [bleep] on the east coast. i think i ve been already pulling some [bleep] on the east coast for the last few years. playing a new york cop and being from boston is very, very delicate. it s very delicate. and the writers on blue blood, you know, they love to needle me because they know i m a celtics, red sox, bruins, patriots fan. jon: that s all the time we have for tonight. thank you for being here though. but, you know, they write lines for me like the patriots suck. jon: just to taunt you my partner was date ago guy who was a patriots fan. my only response was dump the jerk. they constantly are needling me besides the fact that the patriots lost the super bowl and they had to come back from the super bowl trying to everyone on set putting posters on my dressing room door and giants banners everywhere and pictures of eli manning jon: i have that in my room too but it s different. i have a bed spread of him. it makes me feel comfortable. you ve had your run though. boston has had, you know, you re dealing in our city we don t want to talk sports all of them. the rangers we have one championship in 90 years. the knicks had a couple in the 70s. i m a mets fan (scratterred applause n) jon: that is the appropriate level of enthusiasm. if it s any consolation when the mets last won it was against my red sox in that very famous bill buckner play. we shouldn t talk sports. i have to say this bill buckner thing. let me clear this up. bill buckner when he missed that ball the game was already tied. it had slipped away. our bullpen was tired. slipping away. the play before that, bob stanley was pitching jon: they never should have brought stanley in i believed stanley would win it for us. jon: of course you would believe that. you re from boston i still wake up some mornings and say, did wexd lose? but bob stanley threw an inside pitch. rich gedman didn t move enough for them. that was the play, the fastball tied the game. i saw rich in interviews later. i love you, rich. he said, i was so cold in that last inning that i couldn t really move. i was kind of stuck frozen. to me that was validation that he didn t get to that ball that bill stanley threw. jon: a boston guy and it must have been 50 degrees that night. i can t believe. i was too cold ? it was october. they didn t play in antarctica. come on! here s the thing. the mets won. and all that suffering we went through led us up to 2004 when we kicked the yankees ass. jon: the detail in which you remember that is the same as the detail in which i remember these things. my wife, whom i love and i ve been with almost 20 years, there is nothing in our world that i have that level of detail remembrance of. like she d be like remember our wedding? i d be like, oh, yeah, there was a cake. when you re talking about baseball. he was wearing a very light sweater. the level of detail that you remember these sports moments is incredible. let s talk about the cop shows. so the boston guys, the boston cops must have been a little reluctant to get involved with this. yes? i think any cop worth their salt don t want to just get involved in a reality show right away. i think for me, you know, i know playing a cop i play one on tv. i don t want to make light of that. i ve worked with cops and probably played 800 jobs in my acting career. i ve had 801 jobs and 800 were cops. that s beside the point. that s helped me and prepared me to be the right guy to produce this show. i think i know. jon: they trusted you by the fact that you re from there. you ve hung around cops. they trust you you with this i m a boston boy. i m sort of known in boston. thank you. i m sort of known. you know, when we first talked to tnt about doing the show, me and my partners went and met with them. they were like we re talking about doing a boston cop show. i said, look, we ll only do it with you, with this network. we can t do it on one of these rowdy networks with billy club smashing. jon: it won t be like the shirtless guys getting pulled out of. once in a while. but it s boston. i have to represent my city the right way. i m not going to make these crazy reality shows that people make. i want to make something classy that shows these cops in boston jon: how difficult a job it is absolutely. so we went to the mayor first. the mayor, he signed off right away. and the commissioner signed off after that. and the chief signed off after that. all the way down the line they were signing off. they all said the same thing. talk to the officers. if they don t feel safe with you in the car, you re getting out of the car and taking your camera and go home. as long as the officers wanted to do. the officers, having played a cop and worked like a new york city detectives, our technical advisors on blue bloods, he s taught me the most important thiblg. all about getting home safely to your family. do your job. protect the street. protect your partner and get home safe at the end of the day. i knew that and brought that to the show. me and the whole. jon: boston s finest. going to premiere on tnt this wednesday at 9:00. blue blood. donnie wahlberg,
we seem to be muddling through quite reasonably given all the obvious problems rdz you worry about a number of things including the united states will never, ever, or you don t expect it to ever go back to the level of economic growth and gdp annually that it did in previous years. right. and i worry that the powers believe that it will. so clearly bernanke seems to believe it will go back to 3%, the good old days. rose: you don t think that s possible. well, the population, which is a huge input into gdp, its population times productivity. and or population plus productivity. and the population which often hit 1.5% while i was in america, has dropped all the way down to maybe 0.2, 0.3. and these are kind of official numbers adjusted for the fact that he work a little bit less each year. and women, who hardly worked back in the 50s really created a billing boost in the number of people hours offered to the work force. rose: so that acceleration of women in the workforce has will seed down. no its completely finished. it peaked out in about 2,000. so now we don t have a very rapid growth in people, women are finished. we work a little less. and as far as we can work out, we shouldn t expect more than about 0.2% increase in hours offered to the workforce. and in the old days it was, you know, well over 1. so it s dropped by a point. and yet bernanke s estimate of 3% hasn t dropped by anything. so by inference, he s assuming that somehow the productivity will accelerate by an offsetting 1%. and that is there is no possibility of that. last 30 years, productivity has been 1.3% a year. and in the 40 years before that, after world war ii, it was 1.7, 1.8, 1.9. so it s actually decelebrated decelerated. and there s plenty of reasons to think it will modestly decelerate in the future so if you have 1.3% productivity, and let s say you hold that, which is fairly optimistic, and you add on your 0.2% for extra man hours, you re at 1.5. and not at 3 or not at 2.5 which is the imf and the world bank. and even at 1.5 doesn t make me happy because it treats resources incorrectly. it treats trades an increase in resource cost as a boost to gdp. so if you drill, a much more complicated well that takes more steel and more people, the gdp goes up. when i think it s obvious to anybody that providing resources is a cost of doing business for the rest of the economy. and if you spend $150 producing a barrel of offshore brazilian oil, and the same barrel, exactly the same utility as the $10 soundee barrel ri is to you gone, you are not going forward. and yet the gdp measurement clocks in everybody s employment, and so the more people you need to get a barrel of oil, they think the economy is stronger. and of course it s weaker. so we worked that out. and we say how fast is the rest of the economy growing. take out the resource component, and the answer is in the last ten years, about .5% a year, .4, .5% a year less than is measured by the gdp. so we have to knock that off which takes our 1.5 down to a point. now when the price of resources was declining as it did for a 100 years up until about 2000, it was underestimated. maybe underestimated by almost a quarter of a percent. when the price of resources are going down t makes getting wealthy much easier. and in total the typical commodity dropped by 70% over a hundred years. and then it turned on a dime and gave the whole 100 years back between 2000 and 2002 and 2008. in six years it gave back a hundred years of decline. it went up more steeply than it did in world war ii it is quite amazing no one talked about it, there was no fuss, there was no world war three. but suddenly we seem to be running out of cheap resources. and when we look for the reason, incidentally, it seems to be steady population growth, and perhaps more importantly, the enormous china, 1.3 billion trying to grow faster than the 20 million south koreans did 20 years ago, growing their demand for resources at least 10% a year. and pretty soon you end up with numbers that don t seem to compute very easily. china is 53% of all the cement used on the planet, not traded, just used. they use 47% of all the coal, 46% of all the iron. these are unimaginable numbers. and if they mean to even slow down to 7%, it means 10 years from now we ve got to find another 47% coal, just for china. rose: but let me just stay with the demand in china. china is fridaying to shift from an exporting economic model to a domestic demand economic model. will they be successful at that? and if they do, because of a rising middle class in china, and population growth, will that also serve as new markets for europe and the united states, and latin america? of course it will. rose: and therefore economic growth. yes, it s a gooden begin in the short term for economic growth. the problem is it s incredibly energy intensive. and if they mean to keep growing at these rates, they are chewing up coal and oil. rose: an polluting their environment. that has enormous environmental consequences which in the end could be quite deadly. but in the short term it pushes up the price of oil. and what has happened, the most pont thing, really, in resources is that the price of oil, which was 25 bucks a barrel in 2000, is approximately a hundred bucks today. it s four times. it s also half the cost structure of all the other resources. so when if goes up four times, if you are mining copper, you ve got to spend four times the amount on your energy. plus the quality of your copper ore is declining, so maybe su have to spend 8 times as much. and so the price keeps going up. so if china continues to grow at these rates, yes it will stimulate global business and b it will keep pushing up the resource prices. and resource prices have been rising faster than global growth rate so they are squeezing the rest of the system. rose: why were you opposed to the keystone pipeline, because a lot of people think we need all the it s very simple math. fossil fuel we can get. there s a short term, medium term, long term argument against them. but the long term is the carbon math is pretty simple. we have pushed up the temperature by 0.8 degrees centigrade. rose: global warming. global warmingment and you see the affect. everybody sees the affect in new york floods and burning up the midwest and burning up the whole of russian wheat crop last year too and so on around the planet, for three years in a row it is really getting quite obvious. and spring arrives a couple of weeks earlier than it used to. you can t really miss it. and we know what it took to push it up, 0.8 degrees centigrade. it took a certain amount of carbon dioxide which we can measure carefully and we can calculate how much it would take to push it up to 2 degrees. 2 degrees is scently agreed by clime at scientists and others to be a boundary. you go above that and you will certainly have really dire consequences which will get worse for a long time because these things flow very slowly through the system. stay below 2 degrees and we might limp our way through this. and so we can calculate how much in the way of carbon it would take. it s actually 565 gigatons. it s a lot of carbon but the bad news is that we already have in our prove own reserves five times that kment is so we have enough to completely cook our goose and guarantee that our grandchildren are near starvation and so on with floods and . rose: do you think we will? no, i think i m not optimistic about the common sense of our species. rose: of our species or our politicians. no, of our species, particularly the politicians. but i do think that in a real crisis when things really start to go wrong that we will belatedly have some determined . rose: haven t things already really gone wrong? enough for scientists to be frightened. but not enough to frighten the average guy in the street. rose: here s what is interesting about you. to listen to you talk about economics an listen to you talk about the environment, you are a numbers man. yes. this is entirely numbers-driven. that s how i got into this trouble. you just look at the numbers and they say watch out, we re going to fry. and if you mean to pump tar sands, we re going to pump all the good oil, all the good old-fashioned high quality, low cost oil, we re going to pump all that and we re going to pump all the traditional natural gas. but if we mean to dig all the coal and we mean to scrabble through the tar sands, extremely costly and utterly ruin us environmentally, not just carbon dioxide but just terrible things that they are doing, then we re toast. we have no chance. and by licensing that pipeline we re saying to the world, we re going into round three. we re going to start facilitating the flow of such utterly dangerous energy resources that we have no reasonable hope of surviving with the planet as we know it. it s a very nice planet and it has a lot of biodiversity still left. rose: right. and undiscovered, even. yes. and we humans probably taking care of maybe 10% in the last 10 or 12,000 years. but we are racing through in terms of getting rid of biodiversity. this is known in the trade as the 6th great die off since the beginning of time. and it s happening at lightning speed by previous . rose: you are sounding malfusian. he wasn t interested in the die off of the species. rose: but he was interested in food. well, he described the past very accurately. we had spent let s say 12,000 years living with our noses pushed up against the boundary of food supply. and sometimes there would be four or five bad years and they would die. and sometimes they would have a great run of 20 years and they would multiply. but that was the determining factor, like a rat population. we just move back and forth. and right up until his time. and the terrific irony is as he is signing his book which is 1798, they re digging the first coal. so that the coal and then oil & gas bought us a time-out, an amazing, but short time-out which will probably be about 250 years in which you have almost infinite energy, a gallon of gasoline is something like 200 man hours of labor, try pushing an suv uphill and you will realize how powerful oil is and gasoline. and so ode people became, in a sense, richer than the kings had been in the past. and it meant surplus, food, population growth, civilization, science, all these wonderful things. but we only had a limited supply. millions of years of stored energy from the sun. it s in your bank account. and we re draining down the bank account without any real regard for what we re doing. and what it leaves our children and our grandchildren. its our inheritance and we re running through it. rose: what are you doing about it? basically everything i possibly can. rose: protesting a pipeline. no, no, we have a foundation for the protection of the environment. and the money we get goes into it. and we spend it as effectively as we can to combat some of the nonsense out there in the airwaves. if you have most of your stock value in the value of your oil reserves our your coal reserves, you will be pretty reluctant to entertain the thought that it would be poisonous to our long-term well-being to pump it out. so they are. and they oppose it. and they ve opposed it very effectively and the propaganda has been superb. but as i ve often said it leaves me with the question have they no grandchildren these people. rose: let me move to agriculture because i ve gotten a little bit interested in agriculture because of bill gates. bill gates is really interested in agriculture now. he just went down to mexico and he and carlos slim launched some project down there. you re interested in agriculture. certainly. rose: how did you become interested in it and what have you learned about it. and why do we care? we got into resources via the numbers. we had always studied asset class bubbles. right. and looking through the bubbles we thought we had found a situation where every single bubble had always broken without exception. and then i began to realize the oil had spiked quite a long time ago and was never going to come down to the old price it was $16 a barrel for 100 years until opec in 1974. and then it jumped to 35, what i call a paradigm jump which was unique in any large asset class. and it traded for about 30 years with the usual great volatility, oil is very volatile, around 35. and then in the last few years it took another jump to about 80, 85. which is a whole lot different from 16. and you can wait as long as you like until you die of old age. it s not going back to 16. rose: is it going back 20-to-35. no, this is cost driven, you go to shell, to bp, ask them what does it take in your mind to find a decent amount of old-fashioned oil. and they will tell you, 80 bucks, 85 bucks. rose: this is again how you look at numbers. there is an impending shortage of fertilizer, according to you, yes? there is a guaranteed long-term shortage. and that s what separates most of our work from that of other people. we find that oil is a paradigm shift. we then say well why shouldn t it apply to all the other things that are in the ground. and we found it did. then we created our index showing that the price had declined for a 100 years and then exploded. and then within that subset i started to say, and which is the tightest, most problematical situation and that brought to us phosphate oil ors to forous. and the scary thing abouts to for os which really does give me goosebumps when i think about it, it s an element. you can t make it you can t substitute for it and no living thing, humans, animals, vegetables, everything needs phosphorous to grow. you can t grow anything without it, and we are mining it in what we call big ag, big agriculture, we re mining it, it is a finity resource, now that should make you pretty scared am you can calculate how long it will take to run out. if you were for a second to take out one country, morocco and say we will ignore their wonderful, cheap, high quality reserves, a dried up ocean, incidentally, how much have we got left. and the answer is at 2% a year growth to allow the chinese to eat a bit of meat now and then, we ve got maybe 50 years. rose: and then it s gone. and then, you know, you ve got to be optimistic. we have found ways to develop new things all along. but you can t substitute, very few things in this world. you can t substitute for water, not really for soil, not potassium and not phosphorus. rose: how do you know we are not going to develop a desal inization process that will provide us all the water we need. well, that s well respondedment because i am willing, i am willing to not fight a war over water. because water desperately tries to recycle. i mean it s the most amazingly helpful product on the planet. rose: right. you take a really dirty polluted body of water, it evaporates, pure water and then falls where you need it i mean this is really helpful. phosphorous doesn t do that. it stays underground needing lots of energy to mine it. and it s amazingly high quality. rose: but hasn t science for the most part, i mean are you a numbers man again. but hasn t science generally, you know, helped us i mean the reason for 250 years. rose: yeah. what a coincidence. rose: science has helped us. science is to the going to stop. from about the time we found coal and oil, science has helped us. rose: right. where was science before that? isaac newton and the guys, these were scientists rrz yeah. and yet we lived to the limit of our food supply. we never started to develop this kind of arrogance that we can do anything with the infinite capacities of the human brain until coal and oil gave us this supermann power. and now, now, of course, we . rose: without chern oibl we never had the confidence in the science. we would have continued to have grown the science like it was growing in the time of, you know, amsterdam and so on. in other words, doing nicely in these little pockets of wealth, making nice scientific advances, progressing slowly, building the odd canal and chopping all our trees down. we would have been in tree hell within 100 years. rose: how many have stepped forward to say, you know, and i know the distinction you make with yourself. how many have stepped forward to say doom, doom, doom and doom, whether it s the economy, whether it s the planet, whether it s and all of a sudden you realize that it wasn t quite quite that bad, that something came along to avoid the result. before the last 250 years, before coal, what came along was the collapse of the civilization. one after another. they seem as one author has said to be hard wired to self-destruct. rose: right. they develop a kind of hutzpah an arrogance in the belief of what they can do whether the roman empire, or mayan empire question, do this. our scientists, our workers, we can build via ducts, we can get the job done. they overreach, the weather turns against them, et cetera, et cetera, and they collapse. not one or two, every civilization collapsed. and now we have a global civilization with you we have this amazing gifts of 250 years of accumulated sunshine. enormous energy. and everything you say about the optimists hinges on this little window of 250 years. rose: so the story of civilization over the last 200 years is the development of oil & gas. yes. rose: to fuel our economy, to fuel our automobiles, our planes, our everything. everything. rose: everything, and every wave of technology has been hugely energy intensive, coal and steam engines. oil and cars and refrigerators and air conditioning. and ipads. we all run around wondering whether our ipad and iphone is charged. they re huge absorbers of energy. however, i am an optimist in two ways. rose: i m waiting. okay. we have two gifts that none of those hundreds of failed civilizations had, that might, it s quite undeserved, incidentally, it is pure luck, might get us off the hook. and one of them is the fertility rate. malfius never dreamt for a second that as people got richer they would volunteer to have fewer children. rose: right. back in those days if you were rich you had 20 children. rose: right. 15 children. and now you have 1.5. rose: right. and we have made enormous progress. my favorite being iran. muslim society, 1960, 7 children per well and now it s 1.5, 1.6. rose: but it s gotten, ah, but at the same time, in a lot of societies now, they are worried about that demographic. of course they re all worried about short term wealth. rose: russia is worried to death. china singapore, singapore. nevertheless, on my rnz china and singapore had such strict baby policies that they are now worried so they have taken all those restrictions away. not all of them away. rose: not all of them, but singapore they are looking to import malaysians to help their economy and do the jobs. yes, if you have short term political problems, you behave in the short term way. and in the short term growth appears to be good. it s certainly . rose: with would be the long-term way to behave. in the long-term you have got to get the global population down. we have more population than we can sustain without carbon-based fuel. rose: if you look at, i m asking, if you look at emerging nations, it seems to me that one of the things that has driven their economic growth has been their population. yes, of course, it drives growth. it also drives . rose: you said population and productivity. it also drives long-term problems. rose: yeah. it increases the pressure on finity resources until they run out and then you are stuck. it s like the tide going out, you know, the tide goes out and left you high and dry. and you have no fallback unless, like the norwegian government, building up a great sovereign fund. but i never got to the second reason. rose: okay, please do. the second good reason, i have so few good points you have to let me get my two good points in. and that is alternative energy. rose: yeah. every wave of technology has been has required a wave of energy. here we have a wave of technology that does exactly the reverse. it suppresses the demand on our finity resources of coal and oil. every time you have a brilliant new idea, an ipo, capitalism at its best, developing an energy-saving technique, solar, wind power, storage, a grid, a any state of the ard grid system, all of those suppress the need to use our finity resources. that is wonderful. and that is happening faster than people realize. someone from duke power said for them the cost of a solar pan hell dropped in two years to 25 cents on the dollar. i mean these are morse law type reductions, the kind of efficiency increases we only saw in semiconductors. they have been coming down from ludicrously expensive to moderately expensive. rose: help me understand. i m not sure i got the point. so therefore. therefore we can get off there terrible trap of expanding as long as the coal and oil is there and then being left high and dry. we have the wherewithal to move fairly seamlessly if we chose to make the effort, to a renewable source of energy. that will not run out. rose: because the price has come down. no, because the sun never quits. so if you can capture the sun s energy, you can keep you can keep society going. rose: an technology will get us there because it will produce the batteries and be able to store the sun which is my point all along. this is the one area, and the only area where i agree that technology suterly critical rses science will save us. no, science won t guarantee to save us. science will only give us a possible out if we keep the population falling, despite the fact that people who should no better complain about it as a problem, when it s our last best hope that we have the population continue to decline. we have to come back in 2 years and have a population of 4 billion, not 10 in 200 years. and we have to have complete self-sufficiency in renewable energy. rose: how do we do that. we need good policy. rose: how do we have 4 billion. 4 billion is nothing, over 200 200 years that is nothing. that is 1.8. every developed country now is at or close to 1.8. rose: 1.8 children per couple. yeah, 1.8 children per couple. america just dropped to 1.9 with lots of immigrants. and there are countries out there, japan as you know an china who are way below 1.8. even iran, bangladesh is down to 2.2, amazing. but we need that. we need to encourage it. we need to get the population down as fast as we can. now of course it s a short term shock to the system, older people have to work harder. you have to have 74-year-olds. rose: like you. working but it s no big deal. we re not the 70-year-olds that we used to be a hundred years ago. rose: there was just the thing in the financial times that said 70 71 is the new 30. yeah, well, having played soccer until i was 62, i can guarantee that s not true. rose: at 62 you didn t play like you were 30. no, every year you watched the kid who was relatively slow 28-year-old get a yard faster. you can kid yourself at tennis but not soccer. rose: so let me just stay with this, we have to go back to agriculture. and those two things. you have a larger view about natural resources, about food as well, in terms of when you look at the world and the production of these resources, it s an ugly picture. it s an ugly picture and the economists say you don t have to worry about that. it s just a matter of price, to which i say oh you mean when half the world starves, the other half has enough? and that s what is going on. the rich half of the world is pricing out the other half. when china, china has made the cut. china is in the rich half. they re in the haves, not the have nots. and as they get richer and eat more meat the price of wheat goes up and moroccans, libyans, ton esians who live on wheat can t afford to buy it. rose: it s just the demand equation. just the demand equation, yeah. rose: you have had this really amazing ability to see bubbles. where does that come from? just the numbers. there is an enormous pressure in the investment business to deliver good news. trust me. good news sells better, stockbrokers thrive on it. investment houses thrive on it. to go out there in a bubble and talk about badly overpriced markets and downside risks is an invitation to get fired. they simply don t want to hear it as we found, we lost half our book of business in 98 and 99 as the great tech bubble roiled up. you basically said your clients, it s a bubble. it s going to burst and everybody is going to lose. the pricing of the market in late 97 went above 1929. in 97. rose: been the great recession. before at the top of 1929 before the great crash and the great depression, the market was the highest price it had ever been it went above that in 97. and it soared. it was actually 21 dollars for every dollar of earnings and it soared upwards to 35. i mean it was 70% higher than 1929 by the end. rose: okay. but no one was screaming that. the spokespeople for the great investment firm were saying oh, jeremy, don t be hysterical. everything will work out fine. we said look at the numbers. every bubble of an asset class in the financial world has always broken back to the original trend. rose: right. back to the . rose: this is very important. back to 16 times earnings. or 15 times earnings. and here it is at 35, in march of 2000. that is a pretty painful drop. and we had a ten year forecast. our ten year forecast officially distributes to all our clients, so the ten year outlook adjusted for inflation was negative 2%. rose: you generally are early on these things. painfully early. if it decides to go to 35, we weren t that early at 21 which was the 1929 level so we, i think, reasonably with hindsight even reasonably said i hear higher than 29, higher than ever in history, you now want to be defensive if it means to go to 35 because greenspan is a congenital distribute ever of ease and money and subsidized . rose: first rate believer in markets. and markets left to their own devices, which will be honest and straightforward and will look after the subprime instruments. rose: so what s your rule about markets? markets can be from time to time crazily inefficient as we have seen over and over again in history. and any pretense to the contrary is really in defense of some elegant economic theory. economic theory doesn t work with human beings. we re far too messy. so economic theory assumes that we re incredibly well informed. that the buyers know just as well as the sellers which is complete nonsense as everyone knows. and we re rational and cool and keep a cool head. you don t believe that at all. no one believes that, i think, except a handful of professors who made their career promoting an elegant formula based on that assumption. how about fed chairmen, do they believe in that? greenspan, 90% believed from it. and then every now and then he would surprise you by saying the housing market is showing some speculative frenzy. wloops. rose: or irraise exuberance. or irrational exuberance, actually earlier. but still, and then bernanke has inherited a more completely academic view that the markets are pretty efficient. let me talk about you again. japan, you saw the bubble in japan. yes, the japan. rose: you call that the mother of all japan, you know the old story, the land underneath the peferp errors palace was worth more than the state of california. we spent a couple of days researching that. it really was worth more than the state of california. i mean how ridiculous can you get. rose: that was the price of land in tokyo. in tokyo, under the em errors palace. and that was the biggest bubble in the history of the world. that was much worse than the south sea bubble or chile bubble. and right behind it was the japanese stock market bubble. rose: right. that didn t go to 35 times for every dollar of earnings. that went to 65 times. and they had never sold above 25. they went through their old record, they climbed and climbed and then, of course, we were predicting the end of the world and happily. and we had no japanese holdings. it was 60% of the benchmark against which we get measured. and we had none, nothing. rose: right. for a total of almost 7 years we had 0. rose: so what happened toed amount of money you were managing. well, the good news is we underperformed by 10 points a year for three years. then we got it all back with a lot of interest. we lost nothing. we lost nothing for some tre very interesting, important reasons, really. and that is our clients were sitting here watching the crazy japanese. they have very much their own economy, their own culture. and they were able to say wow, that s crazy behavior. and they believed us that sooner or later thing was work out badly and they were not willing to fire us. but when it came here in the tech bubble, most of our committees had a majority of people who believed more or less that it was some sort of golden newera which is what greenspan was saying. the internet was drive away the dark clouds of ig norance and other such nonsense. and how did you know different? we didn t know different. we just looked at the numbers and said every bubble has broken. this is the biggest in history. it will break. japan even bigger t will break. and they all have. rose: dow have some magic formula to define a bubble before we see it. oh, yeah. a bubble we had to make a definition long ago and we decided to have a statistical definition of the kind that would occur every 44 years in a random world. it isn t a random world but it s closer than you think. the kind of event that would occur randomly every 44 year os kurs in the real world every 30 years. it s much closer than we expected. people are getting used to black swans but they aren t as common. rose: so then comes the subprime crisis, did you see that. yes, oh. rose: that was easy. that was absolutely easy. because we were lucky. rose: do you know what it did to the global economy? absolutely. and we said it would, by the way. rose: if it was so easy. we can t do more. i tell you what. rose: are you the only smart man. no, no, not the only one. rose: are you the only smart man in? we talked to about a couple of dozen people, newsletter writers, economyist economists, stock advisors, about a couple of dozen am. they all saw it coming. it was not at all difficult. we re lucky in that we focus on bubbles. the u.s. housing bubble done statistically was a much more impressive bubble than the tech bubble. because the u.s. housing market unlike the stock market had been very stable going back into the midst of time it would bubble in chicago or florida but it would bust in california. so it was perfect. until greenspan and then a great surge of debt pushes up the price of houses, and on our data, it was the kind that would occur randomly every 10,000 years. by the way, bernanke did not see this. he said oh, the u.s. housing market merely reflects a strong u.s. economy. rose: john paulson saw this and became a multibillionaire. did you see it in the same way? and did you act in the same way? my job, just to focus on what i do, ask to inform our clients and write a quarterly letter. rose: don t you have money under management? our team, of 550 people run a hundred different funds. rose: worth over a hundred billion dollars. and i don t hesitate to nag them but i don t have line responsibility. i delivered my . rose: are they listening to jeremy at the time? mostly they do. but you can t you can t run a big firm on imperial fiat am you have to allow a small group of people with self-confidence to make their own decision. but i can tell you what i said. i said i have a problem, dear reader, in that i have been bearish for a long time. the market in my opinion was basically overprice for 20 years. so how am i going to get to you take this seriously. because this is the real mccoy. and i have thought about it for a couple of weeks, and there is it. and this is july 07. i believe at least one major bank will fail. broadly defined, meaning the definition of bank. rose: hello bear stearns. hello bear stearns, leeman, aig, et cetera, et cetera, plus a couple that would have failed but were taken out. plus a couple more very, very big banks like citi that would have failed unless we the tax pay her come to their rescue. rose: was that the good thing to do, come to their rescue? you had to keep a few banks. morgan and wells maybe n business. rose: so you would have let citi. i would have left a couple. rose: would you have let citi go. i would. it would would have sent a shockwave. rose: look what happened when lehman went down t they let it g look what happened. i know, once you let lehman go, i would have let citi go as well in order to make the point that we were not going to stand behind every enterprise that made ludicrous bets and then got bailed out by the taxpayer. then i would have, of course, you have to draw the line. you can t afford a run on the bank. any solvent bank, that famous american christmastime movie shows, if everyone comes to withdrawal their money, they go bust temp orally because it s all tied up in long-term mortgages. and that applies to the banking system. it is universally agreed that the role of a central bank is to make sure that a run on the bank doesn t happen. but it is not agreed that they should support a bank that is insolvent. citi was insolvent. a lot of banks were insolvent. in other words, f you just marked their assets to market they were underwater, they no assets. they had made mistakes. they called the market wrong. they should pay the price. rose: there was this circumstances. standard & poor s, look, and dow jones are approaching record levels. merger activity way up. war en warren buffett and brazilian investors just bought heinz, okay. everybody thinks things are getting better. you seem to say yes, short term, long term no, no, no. correct me. our long-term argument has nothing to do with the market. rose: right. you can do perfectly well in a portfolio in an economies that s growing very little it has to do with profitability. i have no reason to think good companies will not be profitable so this is not about the stock market. that s about the long-term economy, which is going to grow more slowly. rose: so what is this about? so you can make, you can page good money in the long-term in cheap stocks. what it s about is value. if you have a market that becomes overpriced, you will make a return too little given the risk you take. the u.s. market is not too bad for the great franchise companies, the great coke coles. they re not, they re a little bit expense piv. but the balance of the market is very expensive. and it s very expensive because we assume profit margins will go back to normal and prices in every way will go back to normal. back to the trend line. and if we do that, we get miserable 0 returns from the rest of the market in the u.s. now you get better returns overseas. you get almost reasonable returns from emerging market equities. so it s not a terrible situation. 07 was overpriced across the kitchen sink. everything in the world this is merely. rose: it s amazing so few people saw it. well, that isn t true, by the way. i have a story up my sleeve here and that in the you ve been waiting to pull. in the great bubble of 2000, there weren t many people who were willing to debate the bulls. and so they dragged me out over and over again. and i thought if we re going to go down with the ship, we might as well go down with the so i went out and debated them. and my price for giving a talk amongst professionals, say the annual bash of the financial analyst 1200 people in los angeles, was to say how many of you are full-time stock professionals, and 300 people put their hands up. i say just two questions. if the price earnings, the measure of how expensive the market is currently if it goes down to 17, which is trend line, will it guarantee a major bar market? every single one of the 300 agrees. and by the eni had 1200 votes of full-time professionals. so they all agreed, every single one of the 1200 f it went down to 17 times earnings, it guaranteed a major bear market if it happens within a 10 year window. so the jackpot question is how many of you think it will. and it was so shocking to me i had to rephrase the question three times before i would actually . rose: did anybody raise their hand. only seven people thought it would not go down. rose: right. so 99% of the engine room at all the great firms knew very well that the market was vulnerable, would go down and would guarantee a major bear market. but the spokespeople who employed those guys, the spokespeople for the firms were on the podium with me saying oh, we ll muddle through quite nicely. i won t mention their names on the air. but they re very famous people and they said oh don t get hysterical, we ll muddle through. jeremy is always putting down the things. absolutesly. but the people doing the dirty work knew better. they agreed with me. and the reason is simple, being bullish sells. you will not easily hear honest advise when it is bearish. okay. so just in case somebody tuned in to this late, so you are, where are you today? to repeat what you said within we re slightly underweight global equities. heavily underweight in the u.s. outside the quarter of the market that are the great coca-cola franchise companies. and i m not touting coca-cola. i m just using them as a generic. yeah. so it s not a terrible outlier situation like japan that we described or so on. it s just be careful when you re buying ode american do you see a bubble out there? well, the nis thing about bubbles is you don t have to predict them, you just wait and see. and when you see one you jump. rose: are you seeing one. you want me to guess. rose: yes, i want to you guess. what bubble and when? i think bernanke is as i was writing, is whipping this donkey that can only grow at 1%, this economy, because he thinks it s a racehorse that should be growing at 3. so he s going to keep on wliping this donkey. this donkey can t run. until it either drops dead or turns into a racehorse. yeah, right. and you are betting on dead. and i m betting on dead so, it is a very unsafe situation to have the most powerful person in the economic world by far. rose: but he s trying to do something. he s trying to use the fed to create employment, how about that. they don t have the tools to generate employment. they shouldn t have that in their mandate. they should just have in their mandate. so it won t do it. absolutely not. you need fiscal means. if you have people unemployed, by all means do useful projects to employ them. go and install sensible solar panels, what i am trying to say is insulation. go and insurance late every northeast and every cold area, it will have a high societal return. you ll never regret it. redo the grid system. he ll never regret it. so in other words, you re saying if you want to create jobs, create jobs to build something we need. absolutely. and debt is vastly exaggerated which is a huge, huge debt is exaggerated. a huge topic. so you and paul krugman are right on. one of the same voice. let me tell you something about debt. in 1982, if you added all the debt up it was 1 and a quarter times the size of the gdp. and then, and it had been fairly flat for a long time, drifting slowly up. and then it kinked 45 degrees and it goes shooting up steadily without too much volatility. just goes straight up. when was that. 82, 1982. and it goes steadily upwards to 3.5 times. so we had this amazing. when ronald reagan was president, 82. yes, right. and so we had this amazing experiment. the biggest economy in the world. almost tripling its ratio of debt. over a block of time that really counts, 30 years. and what happened in terms of the growth rate of the system, it slowed way down. now there are other reasons. i grant you that. but there s no room in that equation to believe that increasing debt has anything to do with long-term growth. is there? that you triple it, what more can you do, and the growth rate of our system slowed materially? it s so contrary, isn t it. they are the facts. they are so contrary to the general belief. we have been conned into believing by the financial world that debt is everything. let a bank go, oh my god it would be the enof the world there are plenty of reasons why this economy coulds lad, by the way, quite sufficient. you don t even have to use anything to do with the collapse of the financial system. we had a housing bust. we had a housing one and 10,000 year event. if that was to go back to trend, you were going to lose 10, 11, 12 trillion dollars. everyone was going to feel poor. it was going to devastate consumer spending and consumer confidence. secondly you had the price of oil triple. look what happened in the oil crisis of 74 and 79. they a big recession each time. so you not only tripled the price of oil, you tripled the price of food, you tripled the price of k07er, of all the metals. why would that not have caused a major recession. they had three great reasons. the housing market collapsed and commodities just squeezed you to death. you don t need a third reason to explain why we had the most serious recession. and housing market alone explains why it has been very, very slow to recover. because there s nothing more dangerous than messing with houses. so you are, you are an unre you were just a pure keynesian. i am a a pure numbers guy. but are you causes me to shall did are you not? no, i wouldn t is a say thatness why would you not say that. because i m a great admirer of chapter 12 of the general they are general theory which is about the stock market. he was wonderful in the stock market. he was about 60 years ahead of the economic world. you don t know how many years ahead he was because they still haven t caught up. he basically said it s animal spirits, guys, that can mess up everything. and he pointed out the game we play in the stock market is managing your career. never make a bet on your own. would keynes have agreed with you about debt? i don t know. i really don t know. it s such a different world now. the levels of get are so much higher. we probably have some ingenuous new theory. okay am but most people believe that we do have, i mean they look at the percentage of gdp to debt or debt to gdp. i can prove that debt does not generate long-term growth. i have given you the numbers. it does not prevent. it doesn t cause long-term growth it doesn t create it. debt, we triple the debt and gdp growth rate went down. there is no evidence that increasing debt increases gdp. and yet that mandate has been given to bernanke who thinks apparently that it does. by keeping interest rates low, you re transferring money away from retirees who spend every penny and are really hurting. and by the way, there s far more of them every year now than there ever was when economic theories were being panned out. you take money from them, and who are the beneficiaries. the guys who run the hedge dpunds. and the banking system in general. and speculators. and corporations theoretically can use it to build. but they re building less now than practically in history. there is no major league capital spending boom going on. what should be the levels, for example of new revenues to spending cuts? let me say i am not an expert in this. and i don t want to represent myself as such. it is wickedly complicated. i have enough trouble in the stock market where life is simple. the economy is extremely difficult. the debt in the long run is not as significant as people think. how you manage debt is an art form. right. whether you do it this year, next year, how you spread these things out. how high is too high, i have not spent my career in those areas. i feel, i guess that it s substantially too high. i guess that you shouldn t try and make it low in a hurry but you should have a 20 year plan to chip away. that is what i was we ve gotten into a bit of a rat hole and we should be careful getting out of it. but it is not the overwhelming thing that will dominate our future. what it does is it distracts us from the real world. debt is an accounting world. it s paper. the real world is the quantity and quality of your people. and the quantity and quality of your capital spending. are you building new machines. are you building inventive. are you training your people. is your high school system delivering the same education that it used to relative to the south koreans, relative to the norwegians, no it s not. we should worry more about the real world and less about the paper world. and shower s in this death grip that only paper things matter. and so there is much too little attention spent on educate education, training, capital spending, finding a way to beef it up. and also i would rather stimulate the economy directly through government spending than i would like to play games with the monetary system. and games with the interest rate. inflicting great wounds on retirees and so on. and transferring wealth to people who won t spend it. transferring wealth from the poor to the rich by keeping interest rates low. i m not even sure the economy gains at all by a low-interest rate. and furthermore no one is established convincingly that it is a good idea. it s a tradition that is a good idea. that s not the same. we ve had lots of traditions like the market would look after itself. people wouldn t be crooks because economic theory assumes that they re not. but they often were crooks, and greedy and short-term oriented and willing to dance until the music stopped. although they said the music had actually stopped long before. rose: thank you. thank you. rose: it s been a great pleasure. yes, it was fun. rose: lots of things you have said that i think people will think about and talk about and we will continue the conversation at another time. i look forward to it. as we have more numbers. yes. rose: jeremy grantham, thank you for joins joining us. wilt s see you next time captioning sponsored by rose communications captioned by media access group at wgbh access.wgbh.org . funning for charlie rose has been provided by the coca-cola company, supporting this program since 2002. and american express. additional funding provided by these funders. and by bloomberg, a provider of multimedia news and information services provider of multimedia news and information services worldwide. announcer: explore new worlds and new ideas through programs like this, made available for everyone through contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. thank you. dr. holden: to understand us better, i think we have to realize that we really do have two selves. one of these selves is the truth about you, and another one of these selves is a story about you, and you have to know the difference. announcer: allow dr. robert holden to introduce you to your two selves and understand your true self. dr. holden: so i m not asking you to change yourself, but i am inviting you to change your mind about yourself. announcer: make the shift to a more authentic, successful, joyful, and happy life, with six proven principles and practices, when shift happens! live an inspired life with dr. robert holden airs next. bestselling author and speaker robert holden is director of the happiness project and success intelligence. he travels the world coaching business, education and political leaders, and holds a phd in psychology. [applause] dr. holden: it was the best of times, and it was the worst of times. it was the age of wisdom, and it was the age of foolishness. it was the epoch of belief, and it was the epoch of incredulity. it was the season of light, and it was the season of darkness. it was the spring of hope, and it was the winter of despair. we had everything before us. we had nothing before us. an intro to a tale of two cities by charles dickens, written in 1859 but set in 1775. we could so easily be talking about today. it s an honor to be with you here on pbs, and i m very happy to be with a broadcaster
[ male announcer ] engine light on? come to meineke now for a free code scan read and you ll say.my money. my choice. my meineke. that is early start for this morning. starting point with soledad o brien starts right now. welcome. our starring point this morning, the world welcomes pope francis. he is from the first from the new world. the first jesuit, the first latin american to be elected pontiff. we re live in rome this morning and also in buenos aires to a look at a man who will lead the catholics. one month after a karncarni cruise ship got stuck, another one is stuck as well. we will tell you what passengers are saying right now on their boat. a standoff under way in upstate new york right now. police surrounding the suspect wanted in a t shooting spree that killed four people. we are live on the scene. he s a man who may have led to the down fall of mitt romney s presidential campaign. hear from the bartender who filmed the infamous 47% comment. we ll tell you why he did it. work on the job and work at home, how much time men and women spend working versus doing their chores or raising kids. this new information right surprise you. it s thursday, march 14th. starting point begins right now. okay, everybody. we re team this morning, monsignor is back with us. head of the u.s. conference of catholic secretary of divine worship and bishop david o connell from trenton, new jersey. i guess because we have a lot to talk about this morning with the new pope and, of course, a new era, a new leader for the catholic church to mark the very first day on the throne of st. peter, pope francis will hold a private mass at noon eastern time with the cardinals who elected him. on saturday, the new leader of the world s 1.2 billion catholics is expected to meet with members of the media. then tuesday, it s the installation mass. as many as 200 foreign delegations are expected to atte attend. we re covering this story from all angles. miguel marquez is in rome, dan rivers is in italy, shasta darlington is in buenos aires, and christina plig is in miami beach for us. miguel is coming to us live from rome. hey, miguel. reporter: hello, soledad. i think it s safe to say that romans are pretty darn excited about the new pope today. here s this paper, he came out and said thank you to romans and everybody for coming out last night at the vatican. this is my favorite. it s in latin. even the newspapers here in italy are beautiful. but that moment last night when he went out on that balcony and said hello to the world for the first time as pope was absolutely unforgettable. the anticipation, intense. the crowd, 150,000 strong, jammed into st. peter s square. white smoke billowed and the largest bell in the basilica signaled a new pope. within minutes, the square filled to capacity. and then this is the moment, the moment that tens of thousands of people gathered here in the square had been waiting for. it s electrifying. it s an extraordinary moment. look at this. look at all the cameras snapping a picture of the new pope. reporter: argentine cardinal jorge mario bergoglio becomes pope francis. he asked the crowd to pray for his predecessor pope benedict and then in a dramatic and touching moment he asked for a silent prayer. from the massive crowd, not a word, not a sound. the prayer, he said, was for him, to help him in his ne role. 100,000 people, probably more, and there s silence. i know. i know. i was shocked, too. definitely. it was i think it s just here in the moment, you wanted that one curtain to drop and see who it was. reporter: for his fellow argentines it s a moment not only for their country but the world. he s a very humble person. everybody in argentina knows that. he doesn t use car. he use the metro, the subway. he doesn t like to be called himself monsignor, your excellence. just jorge mario. maximum you can call him is father. reporter: a humble man about to embark on an extraordinary journey. now, that moment, that moment of silence was just incredible and unforgettable. perhaps the most interesting moment of the night is when he left the balcony and came back out almost sheepishly and said thank you for everyone for coming. safe travels home. and get some rest. it was a very sweet and telling moment for a guy who seems h humble and seems to have a good sense of humor. what an incredible experience to be there in person. thanks, miguel. appreciate it. pope francis is already developing a reputation as a pope of firsts. a humble man who is not opposed to turning his back on tradition to do things his way. jim bittermann is live at the vatican for us. good morning. reporter: good morning, soledad. i guess an indication of that is the way the pope this morning went to a church, one of the major basilicas here in rome and said a few prayers to mary. but what was interesting about it is that when he arrived he arrived not in his papal garb, not in papal white but in simple priestley black. he changed later on. but in any case it was another sign of what we ve been talking about all along, his humility. i took a closer look at the new pope in a story last night. translator: begin this journ journey. reporter: his journey began wednesday when cardinal jorge mario bergoglio of argentina was elected to lead the catholic church. he s the first non-european pope since the 8th century and first pope ever from south america. he will called pope francis, in honor of st. francis of assisi. bergoglio was born in 1936 in buenos aires, argentina. the son of an italian i ll grant, a railway worker. he had four brothers and sisters. he studied to brk a chemist before receiving the call to the priesthood. the 76-year-old was ordained a jesuit in december of 1969. and has served as orsh bishop of buenos aires. he was made a cardinal on february 21st, 2001. bergoglio is said to have been the runner-up in a 2005 concl e conclave. and in 2013 he was the oldest of the possible candidate, barely mentioned ad eed as a topic. fellow argentines are looking forward to his new chapter in the catholic church. move forward, hopefully make some good changes. hopefully he will be similar to poep john paul ii in some ways in being very progressive. we ll just have to wait and see. reporter: bergoglio is the 266th bishop of rome, leader of the world s 1.2 billion catholics. but to many, he s known as simply father jorge. so, in fact, there will be a lot of change in style around the vatican. no question about that. in terms of substance, perhaps not so much. many to matters, new pope is pretty much on the same line as benedict xvith, although in some things he may bring out changes but not don t expect him to change on the ordination of women or celibacy for priests. jim bittermann for us this morning, thanks, jim. he s at the vatican. let s get back to bishop david o connell and richard hill gartner. you ve been here for the last couple of weeks. when jim bittermann described how the pope first arrived he said he was wearing priestley black, which i guess is what you re wearing. how unusual would that be for a new pope to come out of the traditional white robe? it s very unusual. a pope once selected, once he accepts the election would appear in anything but the papal white. so it s an interesting kind of move or departure from tradition. how do you read that? now we have several moves and departures. little moments of departure from tradition. what s your interpretation? could be the white didn t fit him too well. could be. comfortable in the black. or we he just fell he was going to dress the way that he has cust customarily dressed. we talked about francis, francis of assisi and he himself was a reformer. message in that. several messages. i think there s two different nods there. certainly the nod to francis of the assisi, father francis, and the great rebuilder of the church, as he had that vision of the lord speaking to him on the cross. but as a jesuit, cardinal bergoglio would have also been intimately close and devoted to francis xavier, a great preacher, missionary, activity, i think that says something about his zeal for preaching the gospel and being in this moment that this church has been describing as the new evangelization. it was interesting i thought when the vatican then had to confirm francis of assisi because there was a point when he wasn t sure he was taking the name of the jesuit and that was the symbol there. you heard a young woman in the piece that jim presented to us saying that he was progressive. she hoped he would be progressive. we know he s a former but might be a reformed but also conservative. what kind of pope do you think he will be from these very early messages that we re getting? of course, we ve only seen him as pope for less than 24 hours. but that doesn t mean we re not going to go out on a limb. define him and put him in a box? yes, sir. i think what we have to look at, and this is jim made the comment that we shouldn t set our expectations too high. we look at his past. we look at his teaching. we look at his preaching. we look at his writings. we see that there s a lot of continuity between pope francis and what has preceded him in the writings of pope benedict and pope john paul before him. he s been consistent. he would be traditional-minded in certainly all the hot button issues. we re going to talk about this for the entire morning. the emotion that surrounded the moment of pope francis is high, of course, in his home country of argentina. shasta darlington is in do you know buenos aires. reporter: good morning, soledad. that s right. the whole atmosphere here really just exploded yesterday because not even argentines expected this. so i m standing right here in front of his arch diocese. there wasn t a whole lot of people wait for the announcement. when it came. everybody came flooding over here to the cathedral. it was as if people had just won a big soccer match. one of the reasons he really hadn t stood out this time around as a contender is because he was such an low-profile person. when he was first appointed archbishop he said he didn t want to live in the official residen residence. instead, he s still living in a third story apartment, cooks his own meals, goes out and buys his newspaper every morning at 5:00 a.m. i was speaking to people who worked there in the apartments and they said he really hated all the ritualists that come with the position he had as archbishop. he didn t like people to kiss his hand. so this is a man who really lives the simple life and i have to say, argentines are just thrilled. this came out of nowhere. there is a bit of controversy around him involving what many people view as his proximity to the dictatorship. they say he didn t do enough to prevent the thousands of disappearances, deaths, and the torture here. on the other hand, he was a champion of the poor. and that s what keeps coming true. he s homeless people i talked to here on the streets said he would always stop and have a word for him, soledad. shasta darlington in buenos aires for us this morning. let s get back to pastor of st. joseph s in miami beach and, of course, miami beach with a large population of argentine-americans. shasta was saying in argentina people are going crazy with joy. how about where you are? reporter: we were all delighted to hear and see what the pope was lebted, number one that he was elected. the whole parish and everyone here in miami beach was excited about the whole idea. not just the argentineans. and then come the second element that he was an argentinean and that flourished everywhere, in every part of the island as well as our parishes. we re delighted to know that the leader from one of the largest centers of catholicism, south america, is able to speak not just spanish but the language of the poor, the language of faith, and the language of new beginnings. much has been made of the first decisions in many ways are firsts. i want to play you a little bit of some of those. listen. francis of assisi and this pope, they are kindred spirits. he is a pope that is going to come in and look at a situation and say get back to basics. this is about the gospel. this is about what we are at our best. pastor came to meet his people and it was beautiful. then he took the microphone again and he didn t follow the book. thank god. we were talking this morning as well and showing up in his black clothes of a priest instead of wearing the white robes of the pope. also, sort of shifting tradition a little bit. where do you think that sort of idea of he s going a different direction could actually end up, i guess, expressing itself in how he leads the church? are you talking to me? yes, sir. do you want me to repeat the question. i m so sorry. yes, no. the choice the choice of the name francis says a lot, as you it speaks about reform because of the history of the church and the status of francis of assisi at the time. he was never ordained a priest. he was only a deacon because he thought he was never worthy of that. however, his influence in the church, in the church s tradition, facing the pope at the times and also bringing christianity back to the holy land was magnificent. so i think the choice of francis speaks about reform, renewal, and the archbishop of miami explained to us yesterday, it s a sign of fresh new, fresh life for all of us in the world, as well as and all of news south florida rejoice with the archbishop on this. so i think the word francis, the choice of the name has a lot to do with his internal desire to serve the church at that level of renewal or refreshing and, of course, new beginnings. father is the pastor at st. joseph s which is in miami beach. thank you, sir. appreciate your time this morning. the name of cardinal jorge mario bergoglio was not really on anybody s short list to be pope but he was on cnn s radar before we saw that white smoke billowing from the sistine chapel. listen. a name we have not heard yet that was offered up to me is cardinal bergoglio. which you may or may not know, john allen reported to us many times that what we believe from the last conclave is that bergoglio was number two to then joseph ratzinger now pope benedict xvi iemeritis. 76 years old. he could be a unifier. that is the case. thanks, soledad. so here we go again. another carnival cruise liner apparently experiencing some problems onboard. this time it s the carnival dream. it is in port right now in st. maartin in the caribbean. passengers have contacted cnn with stories of power outages and overflowing toilets. listen. they said that they were working on the ship and then there was the generators that were having a problem. now there s, you know, human wastes all over the floor and some in the bathrooms. they re overflowing. carnival representative told cnn he was not aware of the problem. several calls since to the cruise line have gone unanswered. we should tell you the u.s. coast guard said there are no reports right now of an incident. new developments out of i think gland this morning. four people under arrest in the british phone hacking askedle that rocked rupert murdoch s publishing empire. they were all jurnists at the sunday mirror. the scandal led to the shut down of murdoch s news of the world newspaper. prosecutors say two high school football stars on trial for raping a 16-year-old girl in steubenville, ohio, treated the alleged victim like a toy. the prosecution said 17-year-old trent mayes and 16-year-old richmond knew the girl was intoxicated and bragged about it to their friends. you will be able to read the text messages that were sent where these boys not only confessed to the sex acts that were performed on my client but they also bragged about their knowledge of how impaired she was. they used the word dead over and over. reporter: trent mayes and richmond deny the rape charge. so president obama meets later today with senate republicans and house democrats a day after he wrangled over budget issues with house republicans. yesterday s meeting the president did receive a standing ovation as he entered a conference room in the capital basement but a nearly 90-minute long meeting left republicans unmoved. last night the president spoke about the talks of the so-called charm offensive that has failed seemingly to change anyone s opinion. over the last several weeks press here in washington has been reporting about obama s charm offensive. well, the truth of the matter is all i ve been doing is just calling up folks and trying to see if we can break through some of the gobblety-gook of our policies here. tweeted a picture from the meeting where several gop house members asked the president whether his motives were purely political. you know, he s the president. he looked tired. he did look exhaustive. he s speaking to his people last night talking about what he s been doing over the last week. he looked exhaustive. there are a lot of republicans as we do say that appreciate the gesture that the gesture itself means something even if he hasn t changed any minds. completely disagree and don t see eye to eye. thanks. police say they have surrounded a suspect wanted in a deadly shooting spree in upstate new york. we ve got details on this story straight ahead. looking for a litter with natural ingredients that helps neutralize odors. discover tidy cats pure nature. uniquely formulated with cedar, pine, and corn. [ sneezes ] you re probably muddling through allergies. try zyrtec® for powerful allergy relief. and zyrtec® is different than claritin® because it starts working faster on the first day you take it. zyrtec® love the air. on the first day you take it. but that doesn t mean i don t want to make money.stor. i love making money. i try to be smart with my investments. i also try to keep my costs down. what s your plan? ishares. low cost and tax efficient. find out why nine out of ten large professional investors choose ishares for their etfs. ishares by blackrock. call 1-800-ishares for a prospectus which includes investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. read and consider it carefully before investing. risk includes possible loss of principal. welcome back. a developing story to tell you about coming to us from upstate new york. police are believed to have surrounded a man who is wanted in a shooting spree that left four people dead, two other people critically wounded. the standoff is taking place right now in herkimer county. cnn national correspondent deb feyerick is live on the scene for us this morning. reporter: good morning, soledad. right now police are just trying to wait out the suspect. 54-year-old curt myers. hold up a block away from me. this is main street. this is an area where the police station, the fire station, all within walking distance. so he s picked a very public area in which to do this. the standoff began about 15 hours ago, early yesterday afternoon. there are s.w.a.t. teams on scene. tactical units, sharpshooters, as well as heavily armored vehicles here and just monitoring the situation. they re just waiting. it is very cold. it is very snowy. they do believe that curt myer is inside. they don t know whether he s alive or not. earlier reports that they were going to send in tear gas and going to send in robots. but that right now unconfirmed. that was the plan, whether they decided to end up doing that. they have been keeping us a far distance away. the governor saying that everybody should stay back because it is such a fluid situation and nobody knows exactly what this man will do. what he is capable of doing, police know, is that he walked into two different stores. he killed two barber shop, walked to a local car area, jiffy lube and shot two there. one was a veteran officer. once that happened he jumped back in his car. police did not know where he was for a little while. they thought he was a jewelry store. it was abandoned. right now police say that they really just want to wait and see how this all plays out because they don t want to suffer any more loss of life, soledad. deb feyerick watching this for us as it continues to unfold. deb, thank you for that update. a man who reported mitt romney s infamous 47% comment that in part helped derail his presidential campaign finally speaks out. he ll talk about why he made those recordings. that s coming up. 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[ male announcer ] want to make a great car interior? stop looking at car interiors. get inspired by other stuff. yep. yep. ok. sure. why not? woah. touchscreens. put that in your dash. now, luxury stuff. make your seats like that. that thing has wifi, why doesn t your car? you can t do that. ignore that guy. give it wifi. yes! make it fit 5 people. no, 5 actual sized people. give them leg room, good. destroy boring car interiors forever. and that s how you do it. easy. pope francis a little time getting to work as the new leader of the world catholics. new video this morning of him visiting the basilica am i saying that right? i m going to say it with an italian accent. use you re hands. yes, aappreciate that. later he s going to hold a private mass at the sistine chapel at noon eastern time. and on saturday, the pope is scheduled to meet for the very fist time with members of the media. i m sure members of the media are like, oh, saturday. too much time pass. we want to interview him now. tuesday, it s the installation mass with as many as 200 foreign delegations expected to attend. latin americans rejoicing. christina plig is live for us in miami page. good morning. reporter: good morning, soledad. i m standing outside st. joseph s parish here in miami beach where they re going to be celebrating mass in 30 minutes to celebrate the new pope, mario jorge bergoglio. they are ecstatic that a latin-american pope is one of their own. here are the heedhead lines here. miami herald, new world pope and in spanish, please pray for me. so down here in south florida, the catholics are veriy eies ca tick. joy use. 1.2 billion catholics in the world. 41% of them are from latin america. here miami-dade county at least 50% of residents are also from latin america. so it s a very diverse community. last night many catholics went straight from work to mass to celebrate and to pray for the new pope, pope francis. they are hoping that he will bring about change. they say that the word catholic in latin means universal. even though he does come from argentina, they say that he is the pope for all the world. i am overjoyed because he s a pope for the whole world. and he s clearly a man of great vision. he comes from our part of the world but he s now a father for all of us. reporter: and, also, the largest concentration of argentines are here in south florida, believe it or not, in a little community known as little argentina in north miami beach. they are ecstatic, needless to say. yes, i bet they are today. christina puig for us. thanks for the update. pope francis faces a growing sex abuse scandal that s plagued the church in recent years. a problem that many are hoping he will address aggressively. let s get to the western regional director of s.n.a.p. she s also a surviving victim of abuse within the church. nice to talk with you. give me a sense of your selection of pope francis, considering the issues that matter to you within the catholic church. well, i really believe that for us to, you know, it s tough to predict. i ll make that a simple statement. what will really matter are what actions pope francis takes over the next 10, 15, 100 days. when we see solid action to publish wrongdoers, when we see men like cardinal mahony admonished, that will true action and that is what will make survivors feel a sense of healing, feel a since of pastoral care by the pope and also will be an indication that children will actually become much safer in the catholic church. let me turn to my panel for a second. i think there are people who look at this issue on left hand and right hand. on one hand he has picked the name of francis of assisi, which is telegraphing i m a reformer. on the other hand, if you look at the pope francis history, there s not a huge indication that he s done anything in terms of leadership on this particular issue that certainly has been difficult for the american catholic church. what s the sense of what he will do or what he has to do on this issue? well, no just the name francis but his history and his work in buenos aires, being an advocate of the poor, being an advocate of those who have been victimized in the most broad context, i think is a great sign of hope. and in many ways, even if he simply continues on the trajectory that pope benedict had started but perhaps ran into some roadblocks in trying to accomplish in moving towards zero tolerance and moving towards more transparency in so many things the church in the united states has taken a lot of lead in that in recent years. and it s a problem that other parts of the world are just coming to understand. and that s a frustration for us in the united states to see that the rest of the world, the church and other parts of the world hasn t quite caught up to where we are. so, joelle, you listed some actions that you would like to see the pope do in order to prove to you that this is an issue that is front and center for him. often as you know these things start off as considerations, words put into speeches and remarks. what before direct action would be a hopeful sign to you as we start hearing the pope s first words and masses and messages? well, we keep hearing a lot about pope francis humility. and i believe that is, if it is truly how he is, it is a great first step. because we have found that in the sex abuse crisis, especially in the united states, there s been a great amount of hubris on the part of many of the bishops and cardinals who believed they were more important than the children that they had promised to protect. but a sense of humility will go a long way because someone who reaches out to the poor and to the vulnerable who also ensure hopefully that the church within the catholic church remain safe and that survivors who are suffering all over the world can begin to heal and get some sense of justice, transparency, and accountability. joelle is the director of s.n.a.p., survivors of abuse network. thanks for your time this morning. got a bunch of other stories to get to as well. president obama nominating a new ambassador to libya. debra jones spent three years as ambassador to kuwait, worked in several middle eastern countries. the post has been vacant of course since christopher stevens was killed in an attack last spl september 11th. new information in the cause of last month s deadly explosion that flat tened a popular kansa city restaurant. he hit a two-inch gas line with a boring machine and an hour later gas vapors inside j.j. s restaurant ignited. one person died, is15 others we injured in the blast. we have a story out of colorado and it may be tough to watch. 14-year-old denver girl brutally attacked in her classroom by another 14-year-old girl. the incident was captured on this cellphone video while other students allegedly distracted the teacher, attacked the teen and pushed the victim down on the floor and just wailed on her repeatedly. the victim who does not want to be identified and her mother say the staff of denver s henry world middle school knew about the bully but didn t do anything to stop it. they should like have somebody watch her, make she she doesn t do anything because i asked for help all the time. they treated this situation like every other one they see and it was not the same. horrible. the school has apologized to the victim and her family. the attacker is now on a three-day suspension we re told and could be expelled. charged, you know. as a juvenile. absolutely, right. hate for any kid to do through that. many political experts think that mitt romney s 47% comment was a key turning point in his campaign and now for the first time the man who recorded those comments as come forward. sxwr. i had brought the camera and other people brought cameras for think that he would come back and take pictures. clinton in the past would come back with the staff and take pictures and that was, you know, really my thought. i really had no idea he would say what he said. i thought it would he would say basically the same things he was saying in public. i had no idea it was going to be this big thing that it turned out to be. scott prouty was tending bar last year in south florida. he said he sat on the video for a couple of weeks and struggled with the idea of releasing it. i think he has forever changed what phones will be allowed at events in political fund-raisers. and also thinking carefully that things might be off the record for the people in the room. that, too. staff of people who may not think that off the record means off the record to them. sheryl sandberg has a new book out. we ve been talking about it all week. in the book she encourages women to become leaders in the workforce. she has a message though for men, too. we ll look at my interview with the coo and her controversial new book. we discuss it. the president george h.w. bush was expecting to do a regular photo-op but he got this instead. it was a flash mob, texas students who organized what they called the bush whack boogie. that s ahead. 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[ male announcer ] one pill each morning. 24 hours. zero heartburn. and don t get heartburn in the first place! but that doesn t mean i don t want to make money.stor. i love making money. i try to be smart with my investments. i also try to keep my costs down. what s your plan? ishares. low cost and tax efficient. find out why nine out of ten large professional investors choose ishares for their etfs. ishares by blackrock. call 1-800-ishares for a prospectus which includes investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. read and consider it carefully before investing. risk includes possible loss of principal. good morning. welcome back to starting point. i m christine romans. could be another high for wall street. dow coming off a nine-day winning streak. that is something we haven t seen since 1996. because of improving economic data and, of course, the billions the fed is pumping into the economy every month. yesterday s introduction of the new pope igniting a social media frenzy. twitter says 130,000 tweets permitted were posted about the new pope. notable considering it wasn t a prime time event. for a short time every trending topic was pope related and only by 6:30 p.m. eastern mentions of bergoglio on facebook were up by nearly 4 million percent. is he on twiter? i think he is. back up, yeah. tweeted last night. he did. a lot of people are following that. i think the last time we had a pope new pope so it wasn t even twitter. this is a whole new phenomenon for catholics to watch this news. meantime, incredible study this morning. more and more parents are stressed out. a new study from pew research. wait a minute. someone put money into a study. that s ridiculous. more than half of working moms are stressed and dads are right behind them. that sounds low. parents take on new roles. more moms are work ought side the home today with moms saying they spent 21 hours per week at a paying job, up eight hours from the 1960s and more men are taking on household chores and caring for children. women are working more outside the home and men are working more inside the home and both of them are stressed out. the net-net is everyone is freaking out. i found it interesting in that study it showed that both men and women say overall they think they re doing a pretty good job. of course. we give ourselves high points. facebook s coo sheryl sandberg talked a lot about that in her book called lean in and in ore interview making waves, this book is in a book about women in the workplace and leadership. called lean in, number one on amazon best-seller list. no surprise there that happened the first day it went on sale because she has been everywhere talking about the book and she s been dealing with criticism for suggesting as some peopler is perceive it that women are to blame. she goes out of her way to say they re mot in the book. but she talks about this ambition gap with men and women competing for leadership positions in corporate america. men could help change things moving forward. here s what she told me. when you talk about your mentors in the book, it s mostly men. i ve never worked for a woman. i have been really lucky and had great mentors and part of lean in is to help people find the right way to develop the men tors and sponsors and saying to every man out there it should be a badge of honor to mentor a young woman. not something you re afraid someone will assume something bad but a badge of honor that you were willing to spend your time giving benefit of your experience to young women in the workforce. they need it. you can watch more of my interview monday morning on starting point. coming up next, my conversation with cardinal timothy doyle and the archbishop of new york who was in the conclave to elect pope francis. take you live to rome right take you live to rome right after this. and be good for your face? 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[ announcer ] beneful. play. it s good for you. like a squirrel stashes nuts, you may be muddling through allergies. try zyrtec® liquid gels. nothing starts working faster than zyrtec® at relieving your allergy symptoms for 24 hours. zyrtec®. love the air. welcome fwook starting point. a quick look at the stop toris. the pope is not the only person chosen to lead a billion people. china has a new president. he will head up the world s second biggest economy for the next ten years. he took over as secretary of the communist party four months ago. one astronaut and two cosmonauts will head back to earth tonight. the crew has spent 143 days in space. that seems like a long time. the station s first canadian commander takes over the next mission. flipper takes manhattan. another dolphin spotted in the city. this one swimming in the east river. officials are trying to figure out if it s healthy and all the sick dolphins died in a brooklyn canal earlier this year. so far this time luckily everyone seems to be doing just fine. all right, thanks. told you this story yesterday when president george h.w. bush was visiting texas a&m, he wasn t exactly expecting this. take a look. that s right. started with one, it grew to two, very quickly, it became a flash mob. it was organized in part by students at the school. the particular school at texas a&m named after the president, the bush school of government and public service who wanted to pay tribute to him. they helped and they both organized the whole thing, nice to have you with us, ladies. carlie, let s start with you, first. walk me through. that seemed clearly to be very coordinated and lots of planning. so where did the idea first come from? and how hard was it to execute the whole thing? right. well, we had gotten the idea because we heard that president bush had never seen a flash mob before. and we as students, we always try to find some sort of way to honor him, to thank him for everything he s done for us, and so that is where the idea of the flash mob came. started working on it last fall. got a group of students together, and really started practicing about a month and a half ago to get everything ready. we had a great support team, our production was through flash mob america. the student, faculty and staff at the bush school were just phenomenal. we had great support and we really enjoyed it. flash mob america. i didn t realize they help with the space and organization. i thought those things just sprung up very naturally. very cora graphed. fun to watch, and fun to watch the president s look as he watched this flash mob happening. this is what he said about it on nbc. it looks like we don t have that tape. it s worth hearing. i ll read it. of all the flash mobs i have ever seen this was the best and jenna says the best? he says, yes, the very best. is this the only one you have ever seen? really, really cute. you guys were in the front row. what was your reaction to his reaction? he was clearly charmed by the whole thing. it was really great. i actually didn t realize i was going to be dancing direct until front of barbara. as soon as we started dancing, she pulled out herridge phone and started recording. i love that. that s awesome. so he actually the president stayed longer, i know he was supposed to come in, what he thought was a photo-op, and he stayed a half an hour longer to hang out with students. i thought that was wonderful for you. what was that experience like? they asked him if he wanted to go back upstairs, he didn t. he wanted to shake hands, pretty fantastic. one of the advantages of going to a school with the name sake of a living former president. he visits the school a lot, right? yeah, as much as he can. you guys are also going to give back. not enough to just do a flash mob. you will give back in another tribute. tell me about that. yeah, last year, we started raising money for habitat for humanity house in honor of the bushes, so the students did all of the fund-raising, cost about $40,000 to build a habitat house. we broke ground the day after the flash mob. where will it be? carlie worked on that. in it s college station, texas. we have this family has been selected and they participate in the construction of the house. that s so great. it should be done in the next couple of months. i love that. love the flash mob and a real tangible changing somebody s life in tribute to somebody who has obviously done a ton of the school. ladies, thank you for being with us. that was hilarious. we watched it yesterday, enjoyed it thoroughly. maybe not as much as the president himself did. but great to watch excellent choreograp choreography, well done as well. thank you. you bet. we ll take a break, still ahead on starting point, pope francis first full day as leader of the catholic church. we ll look at who he is, and what we can expect with the paper acy. we ll take you to rome, to buenos aris. surviving a fall. a skydiver s parachute fails, but the man lives to tell the tale. that ahead. for those nights when it s more than a bad dream, be ready. for the times you need to double-check the temperature on the thermometer, be ready. for high fever, nothing works faster or lasts longer. be ready with children s motrin. to book this fabulous hotel. michael, tell us why you used priceline express deals well, you can see if the hotel is pet friendly before you book it. and i got a great deal without bidding. and where s your furry friend? 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i am. for a couple of reasons. every catholic is happy. it s tough for a noncatholic to understand how catholics look to the pope, even those who might be a little disenfranchised from the church. the pope is important to us. we call him our holy father and haven t had one since february 28th. that bothers us. an empty chair at the table. we don t like that whoever it would have been as a catholic, i would have rejoiced. when we hear those words, habemus papam, you want to applaud. tears come to your eye. and this particular one enhances the sense of joy that i feel. you keep pointing out, you and the media have been talking about the first south american pope. you believe there is this athena at play here. even though he is shy and humble as you have already seen, he radiates an interior strength and energy, and it s already clear to me he has a great sense of the power. can i give you a couple? sure. when he came out after getting his white on. comes out from the little dressing room and we all applaud again, he s supposed to go up on the steps to a platform and sit on the white throne, we are to come to him to give him our love and loyalty. as attendants begin to take him by the arm, i am going to stay down here and greet each of my brothers. that s a powerful sign, literally on our level, okay? number two, we heard, we didn t know it because we were locked up. we heard it was pouring down rain, there was a big crowd in the square. he says there met all of the cardinals, and there were about other 100 people. you will be around. we will be with you the rest of the life. i will talk to you afterward. i don t want to keep the folks waiting. let s get out there. powerful symbol, isn t it? you mentioned francis. he said after the cardinal dean says, will you accept? when he said and by what name do you want to be called? he said francis and quickly says after st. francis of asissi, that s a first. no one thought of that. when you think of things, such a beautiful symbol and drama to this, you think who will it be? secondly, what name will he take, when he said francis, you heard the whole college of cardinals went wow. whatever that is italian, i don t know. are you you are in your own with the 115, outside, everyone is speculating, cardinal bergoglio, not in the mainstream. i was fascinated by that, in the college of cardinals, he was a clear candidate. everybody knew of him, he has been archbishop of one of the most diverse, complex, largest archdiocese in the world. and done an amazing pastoral job. there at the last conclave. so the 40% of the college of cardinals in the conclave after blessing john paul ii knew him, respected him. to us, it was no surprise. but are you right, chris, the rest of the world seems to have been startled. so when you look at him now, okay? immediately he will come out, there are all of these beautiful details about what makes him new, new is a very key word for the catholic church right now. a sense for need for renewal. what do you think pope francis can do that will give a sense of renewal to the catholic church? the catholic church is ever ancient, ever new. a beautiful blend. sometimes we look to our church as a grandmother. sometimes we look to her as a young bride. so there has got to be that combination of things immutable and things that are timely. he will do it well. all we can do is look at his track record, okay? and amazingly simple and sincere transparent man. a man who deeply loves the poor. a man who thee logically well grounded in the timeless doctrine of the church, okay? and a man who knows how to govern. we ll begin to see those kinds of things. i think there may be a touch of simplicity, sincerity, openness. i sympatthink he s going to ten the roman coria, which we all said, have you been reporting it well, probably needs some tending too, right? what government doesn t? we look to d.c., we americans are saying there need to be some changes there. i think we ll see some stuff. that s the prospect of him as a reformer, more than on the social, liberal agenda level of what he will do about women, about sell boise, gay meaning? do you think he would move the church on any of those? you think it will not be his best? i don t think he ll do that. he can t as you know, can t really tamper with what s called the deposit of faith, which he gratefully inherits, his job to pass on faithfully to the next generation. he can t change any substance, givens, but, boy, can he ever change the way it s presented, and i think he s shrewd enough. pastor in a huge diocese to say i love the traditional teachings of the church. i m as loyal to them as the day is long, but also recognizing that a lot of them aren t going over. now, i can t change them, i don t want to change them. they come to us from the lord, but we better work on a more tantalizing attractive compelling way to present them. and i think he ll do that brilliantly. i am fascinated. i understand it s secret. what was it like in there for you? i took a picture of you when you put your hand to reflect the oath. don t worry about it, it was on the house. no. you look like he were taking it seriously. staring up at the frescos. who could not? looking around in the sistine chapel. boy. the best known secret process in the world. in there as a cardinal, voting on a man who will be the head, the father. what is it like? i can tell you what it s like. first of all, it s not all fun and games. very intense and emotionally draining, you think about it night and day. this is one of the most important things i ever have to do, to vote for the new successor, so there is a lot of intensity. but yet there is also, chris, balancing that, a remarkable i don t know how to explain this. you know me, a pretty hard boiled guy. people wouldn t call me pius. i think i am holy, but they wouldn t call me devotional or pius. there is a gentleness of the holy spirit. no thunder and lightning, no sledgehammers, no people getting knocked off their horse, but you gradually sense a movement toward a man, and you pray hard, talk a lot to one another, and there is a gradual movement to it that i found just generated a lot of joy and serenity. were you trying to look at anybody s ballots? i may be irish, but i wouldn t stoop to that. walking it up in your hand? to go up and make another oath, you know, and then to put it on this beautiful you put it on the tray and take it so that it goes in, those are those are stunning moments and there is silence, most of the conclave is silent, see. not a caucus, not a convention, almost like a liturgy, an occasion of prayer. you begin and end with prayer, so very quiet. almost like you are at a retreat, where there is a lot of thought and prayer, reflection going on. krard natur . cardinal dolan, thank you for the insight. i will be here until march 19th. is that the mass? can we get a good meal in this town while we re waiting? oh, think so. thank you so much. happy st. patrick s day at home. i can t believe i m missing it. i got a green the green socks? they didn t fit. oh. talking to the cardinal. amazing, amazing interview. and such great insight into all of the happenings. a couple of things i thought were amazing. the story of how he told the pope left the cardinals, you guys going to be around, because i want to talk to the people. that set a tone in the sense of how he ll put people higher arcically maybe. nobody says it as well or as joyfully as dolan. laughing through the entire interview. some of the things he said of the new pope are things that could be said of him. he puts a very good, positive, joyful face on some very difficult teachings, and for some very difficult experiences, and i think that change of tone maybe is the key difference that we re going to see in this particular pontificate. chris, it was interesting i thought when he described, not just who has been chosen as pope, but the idea and the name that was chosen, that was a surprise to the cardinals as well. absolutely. and it s been very fun to hear folks talk about it. and to hear that it s so different than from the political process that you think that there is the silence and this prayer and that there is almost a meditation on who do you choose? and i want to ask you, father, when this happens, what should we be looking for? all of the talk about this new pope what will be like. but you said a positive tone. well, any of the teachings change? are we looking toward reformer in that mode of francis? taking a reformer s name. i think cardinal dolan said it well. the core teachings of what the church teaches and believes will not change. we spoke to pastor darlington from buenos aries, he loves his routine. he would turn down the better housing so he could stay in his third floor important. that s all personally important to him that, of course, will completely change now. not totally. last night, it s reported that he rode on the bus back to the doma santa marta back with the cardinals. had the papal entourage, limousine. he says go ahead. i ll go on the bus with the guys. are ar to what degree can you do that as pope? saw from the very beginning, he didn t wear the traditional vestments when the pope wears when he comes out. didn t have the red cape and stole. and you get little glimpses that he is going to do it the way he thinks it needs to be dub. it will be so interesting to cover him. everything is fascinating with benedict s shoes. it looks like he still had his black suit on underneath. so interesting. beautiful to see him walk into the basilica. such an incredible place with an incredible history. and to see him walk there and to kneel down and pray to the blessed mother as he said he would do last night to really put himself, his papacy, the church in the hands of mary, the mother. very consistent with latin american approach to things. the blessed mother so important in the spirituality of latin america. i hope chris cuomo gets a good meal in rome. he s in rome, it will be fine. i m just kidding. john berman with a look at other stories making news. another carnival cruiseliner apparently experiencing problems this morning. this time the carnival dream in port in st. maarten in caribbean. they were notified of generator issues, but not requested assistance. several passengers have contacted cnn with stories of power outages and overflowing toilets. they said they were working on the ship and then there was the generators were having a problem. and an hour later they said the problem is worse than they expected. there s human waste all over the floor in some of the bathrooms and they re overflowing. carnival representative told cnn he wasn t aware of a problem. several calls since to the cruiseline have gone unanswered. it is day two of the rape trial in steubenville, ohio. two high school football stars charged with sexually assaulting a visibly intoxicated 16-year-old girl and according to prosecutors, treating her like a toy. this is a rape case. this doesn t hinge or even revolve around issues of the alleged victims s substantial xwamt. and what that means as a matter of law. the alleged condition at the time of the condition is a critical part of the state s case. other news, texas equ everybodysearch joining the search for terrilynn monnette. they are looking for any sign of the 26-year-old or her car, last seen march 2nd outside a new orleans area bar where she was celebrating her nomination as teacher of the year. i california skydiver talking about this morning about his terrifying fall after both his parachutes failed. craig s main chute got tangled, and his backup chute, also tangled. he began to spin, hit the ground at 30 miles an hour, and get this, just a few feet from iron stakes that hold up grapevines at a local vineyard. i landed parallel to the grapes, one of my last thoughts before i hit was i really hope i don t hit an iron spike, because it will would be messy. i knew it was bad when i was living it, and and when i saw the video, i m like that s a lot worse than i thought. how did i walk away from that? how did i manage to survive? oh! he suffered just a separated shoulder and bumps and bruises. he will take this weekend off, but he will get back to jumping out of airplanes later this month. someone tweeted to me, the old-style chute actually landing at 30 miles per hour was kind of in the design, that s how years and years ago, that was the speed at which you would land. seems horrific. all of the reasons why you should not skydive. that s one of them. when i jumped, a nice easy landing, not 30 miles per hour. no iron spikes. it could be messy. talking about the understatement. can you imagine? seriously. er in again. that would be a sign this is not for me. over. completely, yes. president obama meets with republican senators after he didn t quite charm house members on the hill yesterday. he can make any steps toward peace? one of the senators will who will be in the meeting will be john borasco. teachers accused of putting sleeping pills in student drinks and even duct taping them? what is going on? those reports straight ahead. hello. 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[ male announcer ] one pill each morning. 24 hours. zero heartburn. welcome back, everybody. today, back to capitol hill. the third day president obama is reaching out. two meetings today with senate republicans and house democrats. last night the president talked to supporters about the outreach. over the last several weeks, the president in washington has been reporting about obama s charm offensive. the truth, all i m doing is calling up folks and trying to see if we can break through some of the some of the gobbledegook of our politics here. we have republican senator of wyoming, john borrasso. nice to see you. thank you for being back us with. nice to be here today. it was interesting to listen to speaker boehner s assessment. he sort of said this and this, which were completely contradictory. a little bit of what the speaker said. republicans want to balance the budget, the president doesn t. the republicans want to solve the long-term debt problem, the president doesn t. we want to unlock energy resources to put more americans back to work, the president doesn t. having said that, today was a good start. and i hope that these kinds of discussions can continue. it s so funny. i was watching that, i literally laughed out loud, he watched all the ways it was pretty terrible and far, far apart, but, you know, a good start. my question, are you hopeful out of this? considering the long list that the speaker has laid out, which seems not very hopeful? well, i welcome the president. i think we ll have a frank and candid discussion about the key issues facing our country. jobs, the economy, debt, and the spending and we need to get solutions. i wish the president had started this four years ago instead of recently. we need to get solutions and need to get the country moving ahead, and i welcome opportunities to work in a bipartisan way to get the country moving. hey, senator, chris frates of national journal here. republicans on the hill tell me meetings that everyone should be watching are the meetings that the president is having with moderate senators. your colleagues, and i wonder, how hopeful are you that your moderate colleagues could get some kind of deal that could drive a piece of legislation through the senate and over to the house? well, at a time of divided government, that s when you have the best opportunities to really accomplish the big things, and we need to accomplish the big jobs now of making sure that medicare and social security are there, just not for people today, but for the next generation. people have paid into the programs and for every $1 people have paid in, getting $3 out in benefits in terms of medicare so we have to reform the programs and the best way to do that is at a time of divided government. the president has to lead his party to agreeing to the changes that have to be made in an effort to save these programs long term. yesterday it was a senator patty murray who released democrats budget version. ending some of the breaks by closing loopholes, cuts in domestic and defense spending. new spending on infrastructure and we have a graphic of what the budget has, some elements in it. $975 billion revenue increase. $975 defense spending cuts. interest savings as well. $100 billion for road, bridge repair and working training. what do you make in broad strokes? another trillion drarz of tax increases on the heels of the president s health care law, a trillion in tax increases. take a look at that american taxpayers are saying that and right now money is being wasted in washington. and the other problem with patty murray s budge the, it never gets to balance. and paul ryan s budge net ten years, a fundamental difference with the kind of debt we as a nation continue to have. i was traveling around wyoming. we go to schools and students know we continue to borrow a lot of money every day just to stay ahead and a lot of the we re borrowing from china. paul ryan s budget balances in ten years because of the big chunk in the middle is killing obama care, which people have said i think recentasonably is going to happen. sure, it balances, but it s not going to happen. paul ryan s budget balances and spending increases every year under paul ryan s budget, it just doesn t increase as fast as the democrat s budget. the federal reserve came out with a report that talks about the impact of the health care law on the economy and on jobs. and it is hurting jobs. this is the federal reserve in their monthly report. talking about the bad impact of the health care law, because of the consequences within the law so businesses, due to the uncertainty, aren t hiring. when they do hire, they are hiring part-time workers instead of full-time workers and that s why we re still at almost 8% unemployment in this country. can i ask you a quick question before i let you go? you are a featured speaker at cpac. two big noninvites are chris christie and bob mcdonnell. what do you make of the omissions? i m not on the committee. i know. but what do you make of it? i am delighted to be invited. this is the next generation, a youthful crowd, and i m looking forward to visiting with them on the issues of health occasicare. very devastating for young americans as they start suffering the consequences and expenses of the president s health care law. i recognize you are not the guy that makes the invitation list. i m curious, those are two big names and quite remarkable not on the list. what do you think personally? well, i m not going to decide on who gets invited and who doesn t. i welcome all conservative ideas and a lot of ideas to come up with the best solutions to move our country ahead. nice to have you, sir. we appreciate your time. thank you, soledad. this just in to cnn. we re learning the shooting suspect, we ve been telling the story all morning. the shooting suspect accused of killing four people and critically wounding four others, is he now dead. federal officers telling officers they got into at ban donned building in herkemeier, new york. kurt meyers was killed and an fbi canine dog also killed. he allegedly set fire to his home before he went on a shooting spree. we ll continue to monitor this story. many questions remain, even with the death of the suspect here. we ll take a break, back right after this. you know we re kinda like twins. 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(music throughout) why turbo? trust us. it s just better to be in front. the sonata turbo. from hyundai. welcome back, everybody. history unfolding as pope francis gets to work as the new leader of the world s 1.2 billion catholics. he will hold a private mass at the sistine chapel at noon eastern time. along with cardinal who s elected him. and on saturday, he will meet for the first time with world media. and on tuesday, the installation mass. as many as 200 foreign delegations expected to be on hand. the emotions surrounding the announcement of pope francis, filling over from vatican city all around the world, including, of course, his home country of argentina. shasta darlington joins us with reaction. good morning. reporter: good morning, soledad. that s right. it really did take argentina and buenos aries by surprise. no one was hanging out in front cathedral behind me. there were no expectations it could possibly be bergoglio. hundreds of thousands came out to celebrate. people were jumping up and down, singing, shaking flags. a lot of excitement about this also, because this is somebody who people here view as a real champion of the poor. not only helped the poor, but lived that life. he is lived in a small apartment right up here, in fact, on the third floor. instead of the official archbish archbishop s residence, cooked his own meals, took the bus and also greeted the homeless on the way to buy his newspaper. a real man of the poor, soledad. shasta darlington for us. thank you, shasta. so interesting to see the reaction. a big step in the sense of the orlando world versus the new world. one of the things not pointed out. he wasn t ordained a priest since 1969. he was a deacon first. he felt like he wasn t ready to be a priest i understood. part of the jesuit formation would have been a longer period of time. he wasn t ordained until long after the second vatican council concluded. he has always been in the church after vatican two. even those who aren t catholics, but badly read in catholic doctrine. what is the significance of vatican two? it called for renewal of the church on every level. the most obvious changes would have been in some of the structure of governance that led to a new code of canon law. changes in the mass and way we pray is probably the most over either sign. the conversation was different. the traditions, the perceived rigidity of the church. gave way when pope john xxiii announced the council. the opening of the windows, letting in the fresh air. this is the first kind of for ray into the modern world into adopting the church and giving the church some sense of that. that s the vatican council spirit that people talk about. and as mondsignor indicated, he lived in the post vatican era. a very different mind-set as well. we ll get to john with an update of other stories. new information just in to cnn about the shooting spree in a small town in upstate new york. the suspect, kurt meyeyers is d. we are live on the scene. reporter: good morning, john. good morning, soledad. police and fbi and s.w.a.t. teams made entry at about 8:00 this morning. kurt myers didn t pick the building randomly. just down the road from me. he was waiting in ambush as teams made into the beiuilding. sent in a canine dog, and he opened fire, killing that dog. agents returned their own fire, killing kurt myers. entry was made and over in a couple of moments, we are told that the suspect, the man who killed four people and who now we believe was waiting in ambush for a police officer, that he is now dead. and so this, again, over, a lot of tension was here in herkemier county. they had not spoken to him in more than 15 hours. when there was an exchange of fire yesterday, they thought he was wounded, but he wasn t. he was laying in wait. police got him first, john. wow, deborah ferrick, our thanks to you. tsa administrator john pistol is expecting to defend his decision to allow small knives on planes. earlier this week, he said sticking with the plan to take affect next month to reduce waiting time at airport security checkpoints. three major car yores have come out against the machine along with unions representing pilots and flight attendants. a live look now. no live look, this morning or today at the gaylord resort in national harbor, maryland, the start of the annual cpac convention. senators marco rubeio, rand paul, and rick perry, tim scott. sarah palin, donald trump, nfrp ra wayne la pierre, all set to appear. some people who will not appear? chris christie and bob mcdonnell of virginia. and caught up with a corruption scandal at a veteran s charity. jennifer carroll stepped down days after answering investig e investigatinvestigat investigator s questions. carroll not among the 57 people charged with racketeering and money laundering. allegations of physical abuse at this california preschool. a form every teacheer teacher at taping a girl s ankles and wrists. that s insane. the teacher apparently took a picture of this and showed it to coworkers. one of them was the child s mother. who contacted authorities. also in california, a daycare teacher is being accused of drugging toddlers with over the counter sleep aides. a coworker saw her put pills in little white cups. apparents were outraged when they up found out. i would never imagine anybody doing anything to this to a kid. what do you think about somebody doing this to a kid? sickening. sick to my stomach. i work for a daycare too. it s hard. wow. the teacher caught before any of the one or two year old has a chance to take the sleeping aides. she is behind bars, charged with felony endangerment. who gives a 1-year-old sleeping pills? sleeping aids, whatever you want to call them? they can t even take pills at that age. that s insane. so insane. that s the crazy moment. the teachers, they are dealing with youngsters and they are lively and wiry. clearly the wrong field if you can t handle. absolutely terrifying to hear as a parent. oh, my gosh. the crazy segment today. up next, a secret among many parents. a version of this, right? giving their kids medication they may not need in the hopes of making them smarter or more focused. more about this disturbing practice, right after this short break. looking for a litter with natural ingredients that helps neutralize odors. discover tidy cats pure nature. uniquely formulated with cedar, pine, and corn. mr. wiggles and curling irons. for the little mishaps you feel, use neosporin to help you heal. it kills germs so you heal four days faster neosporin. also try neosporin eczema essentials. welcome back. have you ever given your child prescription meds to sharpen them up, give them an edge at school? it sounds bizarre, but there is a name. called neuroenhancement. not only is itly you leg ly yoit wrong. we are joined by senior medical correspondent elizabeth cohen. this is not so unusual? a group of pediatric doctors say that parents are asking us to prescribe drugs for adhd. the parents want them more focused so they can go from getting bs to getting as. so this group of neurologists says it has to stop and published a position paper. part of the proof they used to show this is happening, they said, look, let s take a look at adhd diagnoses, they have gone up 21% over a period of time, but prescriptions for medicine have gone up 46%. so you don t have to be a mathematician to figure out why we have so many kids taking adhd drugs when they don t have adhd. it stops here. they are reaching out to parents to say don t ask for them, and to doctors saying don t prescribe them. some believe their child hasn t been diagnosed or they are exhibiting the traits. doesn t matter if you have adhd, if you are acting as if you have adhd, wouldn t the medicine be a good thing? no. you either have adhd or you don t have adhd. just because when your child my child does this. sits around doing homework. writing, stares off to the sky. that doesn t mean she has adhd. she isn t focusing at that particular time. i won t drug my child because she is staring off into space a few minutes, or because she got a b instead of an a. these drugs have side effects. not like giving your children a piece of candy. side effects can include things like they can get irritable, insomnia, use appetite. some kids lose a lot of weight. i have seen this first hand. and a relatively small number, get heart arrhythmias. don t want to give a child a drug unless they have the disease, and you don t want to convince your doctor they have it sometimes, unfortunately, that works. you have to make sure the doctor does a thoughtful job of assessing whether or not they have it. children taking powerful drugs. elizabeth cohen, thank you. first lady michelle obama gracing the cover of vowi vogur the building second time. more on that, next. featuring the lexus gs and is performance lines. because control is the ultimate expression of power. get great values on your favorite lexus models, during the command performance sales event. this is the pursuit of perfection. 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[ crows ] now where s the snooze button? welcome back, everybody. a couple of stories we re following. the motor city facing bumpy road the next couple of years. a state of emergency in detroit. an attorney from washington will take over as emergency manager. snyder s announcement expected to come this afternoon. probably not the way that students expected to spend their spring break. police in miramar beach, florida, arrested 32 students at a house party. underaged drinking. the house was trashed and along with on a night behind bars, it could affect some students scholarship. in chains. a rarity. usually everybody turns their head and let s it go. pretty aggressive arrest. the first lady, michelle obama, absolutely everywhere these days from late night talk shows to academy awards, and come april, on news stands everywhere, becoming the first lady to grace vogue twice. we got a first peek at the glamorous photos and story. vogue, the bible of fashion, it can get political too. it has featured first lady after first lady, never before as soledad mentioned, has vogue ever featured an american first lady twice on its cover, until now. second term, second cover. first lady michelle obama in vogue again. something so ground breakingly modern about the obamas, first black president and first lady, and vogue is crazy about them. the editor in chief, a massive obama fund-raiser, so it s her friend, the first lady, appearing on vogue s april cover. wearing a sleeveless dress by reid crackoff. there she is in michael kors. but jonathan vnmeter spoke to both of them. the first lady and the president. them as a couple, their marriage, their children, how they live in the white house, how they deal with the bubble. reporter: what struck him? he are so sweet with each other, a lot of affection. if there is any married couple to whom the phrase, they finish each other s sentences applies, it s them. reporter: of their marriage, the president said i think it would be a mistake that my wife when i walk in the door, hey, money, how was your day, let me give you a neck rub. it s much more. we re a team. of his clothes, she jokes this is the man who still boasts about this khaki pair of pants i ve had since i was 20. and i m like you don t want to brag about that. she very effortlessly tells a story that leads to a punchline that can crack you up. and i love that sometimes she and i weren t finished laughing and he was done and ready to move on. the president. and she would sort of look at me and keep laughing with me, like i just love that spirit in her that that jovial spirit that really surprised me. reporter: just a phenomenal photo shoot for the april issue. the president and first lady by the way, also pushed back on the notion that they are anti social in washington. the first lady said, you know when you get a minute, you want that extra energy to go to your 14 and 11-year-old. sasha and malia actually want to spend less time with them these days. you know that age, right, when that happens. and the president said, who knows? maybe you will see us out in the clubs. a little inside, behind the scenes, great stuff i got from the writer. he said when he got to the white house, one of the staffers said to him, you know, this part of the white house has never been so completely taken over by a photo shoot. but that s the way vogue works. and because you love music, soledad. the music playing in the background for the photo shoot was the black eyed peas. where is the love? where is the love? i like the cover shot. probably because her arms are just famous and fabulous. but the gown is so beautiful. the michael kors gown. she chose that, to pair a sweater with a ball girl. end point back in a moment. thank you, alina. on a walk, walk, walk. love to walk. yeah, we found that wonderful thing. and you smiled. and threw it. and i decided i would never, ever leave it anywhere. because that wonderful, bouncy, roll-around thing. had made you play. and that. had made you smile. [ announcer ] beneful. play. it s good for you. her long day of pick ups and drop offs begins with arthritis pain. and a choice. take up to 6 tylenol in a day or just 2 aleve for all day relief. all aboard. just in to cnn from the pentagon. a commander warning of new risks of attack between rising tensions between nato and karzai. it could become a catalyst for some to lash out against our forces and karzai may also issue orders that put our forces at risk. the isaf telling cnn, the e-mail, not a formal threat advisory, which in and itself is kind of remarkable, what he s saying private until this e-mail is worry some. that from barbara starr at the pentagon. time to get to end point. so much to talk about with this being the first full day of pope francis. what do we see today? not the rundown of events. what do we see today in terms of him framing what the rest of his tenure will be? i think he s taking this in stride. doing what he needs to do, but he wants to reveal himself, little by little, to the world and let them see he s an authentic person. what you see is what you get. he is not young. he is 76 years old, which means realistically. two years younger than pope benedict when he was elected. realistically, you could be back again. a precedent set of stepping down when you physically don t feel able to move on. is that good for the church or bad for the church? could be. it might set up the possibility of
captioning sponsored by macneil/lehrer productions ifill: white smoke spewed from the vatican chimney today and the newly elected pope francis, greeted tens of thousands from the papal balcony. he s the first leader of the world s catholics to hail from the americas. good evening, i m gwen ifill. woodruff: and i m judy woodruff. on the newshour tonight, we get the latest on the 76-year old argentine pontiff and what his selection means for the church. ifill: then, as the budget battles rage on in washington, we examine the quest for bipartisan solutions. woodruff: in the first of two stories about toxic drinking water in the united states, miles o brien reports on the company and the regulators charged with the clean-up. reporter: did you ever think you would ever have to deal with chromium 6 or p.g.&e. again? absolutely not. absolutely not. in front of god and the world, they said they were going to clean it up. ifill: and we close with stories of sexual assault in the military recounted today at a senate hearing. during my tour on the u.s.s. frank cable, i was raped by a superior non-commissioned officer. i was ordered by my command not to report this crime. ifill: that s all ahead on tonight s newshour. major funding for the pbs newshour has been provided by: and with the ongoing support of these institutions and foundations. and. this program was made possible by the corporation for public broadcasting. and by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. thank you. ifill: catholic cardinals proclaed a new leader of the church today: an argentine archbishop who will now be known as pope francis. it was a departure from centuries-old traditions, and it brought an outpouring of celebration in vatican city. a great wave of cheering broke as the much-anticipated white smoke rose from the chimney above the sistine chapel, by the tens of thousands, the faithful braved a chilly rain in st. peter s square. the bells of st. peter s confirmed the news the crowds had been anxiously awaiting for hours. after just five rounds of voting, a new pontiff had been elected, just one day after the conclave began its closed sistine chapel meeting. as word spread, even more pilgrims and tourists descended on the vatican, filling the square to capacity and packing into nearby streets to witness the historic moment. ( translated ): i cannot explain it. this is tremendous. this is the first time i am in rome and to have an argentinan pope, it s tremendous. ( translated ): we are very happy as argentinians, i think he is a very well prepared person and we need to pray for the holy spirit and jesus christ to give him the strength to lead the catholic church. ifill: italian military bands and the swiss guard also marched through the square. but the new pope s identity wasn t officially revealed until more than an hour later, when he finally emerged from the velvet curtained balcony of st. peter s basilica. the chosen one: cardinal jorge bergoglio of argentina the first pontiff from the first pontiff from the americas and the first non-european in more than a millennium. the 76-year-old chose the name pope francis the first. he delivered his first public address to the cheering crowd. brother cardinals had to go almost to the end of the earth to find him. but here we are. ifill: the new pope has spent most of his career in argentina, where he oversaw churches and priests across the country. now he ll lead the 1.2 billion members of the roman catholic church, all while addressing a number of difficult issues plaguing the church, from priest sex abuse scandals to allegations of corruption. pope francis succeeds benedict the sixteenth who stepped down last month. he was the first pontiff to resign in 600 years. pope francis the pope will be installed formally on tuesday. vice president joe biden will lead the historic delegation. we get more now from michael sean winters of the national catholic reporter. the first obvious question is, who is he? some of us are all scrambling. i think he was a surprise choice in part because of his age. what we ve learned is he s a very simple and humble man who, when he became the archbishop of buenos aires chose not to live in in big mansion but got a small apartment. he takes public transportation and did away with the limousine. he s obviously conservative and i think you ll see none of the candidates were what we in america would consider doctrinal liberals. most importantly he s from latin america and for the last 50 years the issue the latin american bishops have been dealing with is what is the preferential option for the poor mean and trying to wrestle with that on theologically but also practically. is it going to be just words or is it really going to galvanize the church to care for the poor. pelley: was it also important the pope come from an area of the world where there is growth? population growth in the church? i think so. i think this gets to the heart of the gospel which is good news for the poor and i think sometimes in america and in western europe we re simply too affluent to hear it anymore in the way it was intend tpwhud africa, latin america there are desperately poor people for them it is still good news. ifill: but he has no roman experience. that is work inside the vatican. he didn t come from that experience. does that put him in a disadvantage at all? this is the danger is obviously he although he s been on several congregations as a cardinal so he mig know his way around he s never worked in rome and the danger is that the old guard will say, you know, we re not going to tell you where the bathroom is unless you do what we want. so we ll see. but he s a very strong leader in buenos aires, has a reputation as a decisive man and i suspect has a mandate from the cardinals to clean up some of the messes that are there. pelley: one of the things he said when he came out in the square today was or on the balcony was that he would be the new bishop of rome. he specifically talked about the city of rome. what was that about? again, this is our hope and at this point it s all speculation. on there s been so much centralization in the catholic church in rome over the last 150 years. and i think bishops trying to do their best don t want to be considered just branch managers. the bishop of rome is the pope, but that doesn t mean you re the bishop of the entire world. and too many pontiffs have acted in that way. and have been not giving local bishop it is authority and decision-making power that i think that they want and we re hopefully he will pursue that kind of decentralization of authority. ifill: even though pope francis wasn t the front-runner, if there is such a thing, since we don t know what goes on inside that conclave, he s still considered or it s been reported he was the runner-up in 2005 to pope benedict. it s hard to interpret that. one wonders you know, those were 40 votes he supposedly got in 2005 who were not voting for joseph ratzinger and that may indicate a certain amount of change. i just want to caution i think a lot of americans think when they think of reform and change they think we re going to have women priests. that was not a realistic expectation given the cardinals who were in there. i think what they mean by reform touched other issues, partly reorganization of the curia, its relationships with local bishops and, again, are we going to focus a little bitless maybe on the traditional latin mass and a little bit more on caring for the poor. ifill: so this is not a pope or a papacy we re going to see any kind of change when it comes to things like abortion or of course not. ifill: gay marriage. of course not. ifill: or adoption or any social issues that get us so worked up, especially in the united states? no, and these are not issues in the latin american church. when 50% of your people are living below the poverty line, shame on you if you re worried about other issues like that. you ve got to be very hand on worried about feeding your people so they don t go to bet hungry at night. ifill: he was quoted as saying not too long ago if the church remains closed in on itself, self-referential, it gets old. does that harken some sort of change that s imminent? you know, my worry is that the church does sometimes become very self-referential and when they talk about the new e advantagelyization they reduce it to teaching bishops how to use twitter and it has to mean more than that. it s curious he chose the name francis. francis faced a very corrupt church and very degenerate culture in his day and he changed it by kiss ago leper. ifill: we re talking about st. francis of aceasesy. yes. and that s how the church reforms, by becoming the gospel church. ifill: we have to go back to this processndow he came to be pope. was there anybody besides americans were there anyone besides americans who thought an american would be pope? it was evidently a strong candidacy for cardinal o malley. it was being pushed by an african cardinal. ifill: the boston archbishop. and a couple latin american cardinals who were big fans of cardinal o malley. we ll find out in the next couple of weeks, estimations and guesses about what the vote totals were. but i think that was a real there was a real buzz there. that was not just the media. ifill: michael sean winte of national catholic reporter, thank you so much. thank you. woodruff: for more on what pope francis selection means for the future of the catholic church. ray suarez picks up the story. suarez: and for that we re joined by chester gillis, a dean and professor of theology at georgetown university. he has written extensively on the history of the papacy and catholicism. and sister simone campbell is the executive director of network, a progressive catholic organization which promotes social justice. well the new pope joked that the fellow cardinals went to the ends of the earth to find him. he is th first pope from the global south. in his context, sister, what does it mean to be socially progressive and doctrinally conservative? i think in the argentine context especially in the global south it means to be keenly aware of the suffering of people at the margins of society. he has spoken very strongly against the income disparities, against the concentration of wealth in the north, first world countries, against the consequences, the adverse consequences of globalization and globalized greed for people who are poor. and then he is apparently very conservative on some of the social issues. but that s very consistent with this whole idea that it s lifting up people out of poverty is the key. that s where jesus went, that s where jesus was. so i think he lives it s interesting he picked the name francis, because that francis was the most radical to reject the riches of his time and to embrace the whole concept of voluntary poverty, care for those at the margins. it s a significant step, i think. suarez: dean, he comes from a background of supervising priests rather than being a theologian or intellectual of the church. what practical aspect what practical application does that have in his new job? well, that means he s a pastoral person, which is probably a good thing for the church. he s also a jesuit and jesuits are intellectuals, all of them virtually, and a very powerful order in the church. so i think he has both sides. he has the pastolside and jesuits are contemplatives in action. so there s a contemplation side and spiritual side but it is the activity side that has to manifest itself in culture and society and it has to be on the side of the poor as has been said. that s part of his orientation. he supervised priests so he knows how to run an organization. he knows how to manage people. he knows the pressures of that job. but they haven t he hasn t let that go to his head. suarez: at the election of the last pope, benedict xvi, it was observed because of his age that th electrs were anticipating a short papacy and, in fact, that s what they got. but pope francis i is 76 years old, sister. did they just do it again? well, i think they did just do it again. but i think this is also an important step because in our fast-paced globalized world i think maybe the electors have some insights that a very long papacy like with john paul had a lot of positives but there was a lot of anguish at the end of the papacy, a lot of things went undone. because we always need a variety skills a a variety of gifts to make a difference and i think that s what they re choosing. some new gifts but not for too long. suarez: there s been stories of financial mismanagement, decline of the church in the west and, of course, the ongoing unfolding, consistent revelation of the sexual abuse scandals. what s job one after the installation? i think job one is to put a management team in place, so to speak, to make some changes probably, even in the curia, and put people in whom he trusts and who will make some changes in those structures and may even more transparency in the roman structure. you know, who would want this job? we wonder. we re saying my goodness, it s not an easy task. he s coming in at a very difficult time. this is not coming in when things are smooth so he can make a big difference in a short period of time potentially. and part of that would be by what kind of management structure and with whom he surrounds himself to manage the affairs of the vatican. suarez: but that s a tough thing when you re coming in from the outside, isn t it? it is extremely difficult coming from the outside. but the thing that he brings, it appears, is a sense of mility, a sense of humor which is wonderful and the capacity to welcome in everyone to the center. and i think it s that capacity to welcome people in that will allow him to form a management team that can do something different. he comes from a democratic country which is is led by a woman so he is used to having other voices to deal with. so i think the fact that he understands democracy, knows the value of various voices, has worked with strong women will allow us, then, to create a good team that is diverse and that is pastoral as well as administratively sound. suarez: his home, latin america, is also the home of a third of the world s catholics. but it s also a place that s seen a lot of decline in the church, a lot of move to protestant churches, to a more exuberant form of worship. great inroad in the church. evangelism is being talked about a lot. that is spreading the faith, he s been living that struggle, hasn t he? yes, and the evangelism has been an evangelism to cathics. ironically. evangelism has been trying to convert people to catholicism. in this case it s the bring people back to catholicism as you suggested and latin america there s a great migration to evangelical protestantism that s problematic. in europe there s just a decline in religious interest and people just drop out. so to evangelize in both contexts is a very important element of the church and someone who can carry that message but also has a certain credibility about his own character and humility i think will help in that. but it s a struggle. it s not going to be easy. this is not going to turn aund on a dime. suarez: sister, what are your hopes now? we re approaching the installation of a new pope, the seating and anointing of a new pope and easter. well, i live in hope and i think this peace of evangelization is very important because it s also that the people will evangelize our leaders. our leaders between church need to hear from ordinary people and that, i believe, pope francis i has already been touched by them. but he will now need to be touched by the whole world and when you touch the pain of the world as real there is a a solidarity, an engagement with the gospel, a living faith that blossoms forth and let s pray for a moment of blossoming. suarez: it must be a shocking thing to go to rome and then find out you re really never going to live in your home again. you re not going home. when you re elected, that s it. somebody brings your belongings from your home country and you are and you never have the same identity. you will be known as francis for the rest of your life and the first thing the cardinals do is pledge obedience to him. these were his colleagues and his peers a few hours ago and now he s the holy father, as he s referred to the in rome all the time. the holy father. it has to be an astonishing change to him. i m sure he contemplated it to some degree but i m sure it s humbling, i hope it s humbling and probably a little bit frightening saying i hope i can do this. i hope i have the courage to do this, the insight, the spirituality and the stamina to do the job. pelley: dean gillis, sister simone, good to talk to you both. ifill: still to come on the newshour : the search for bipartisanship; danger in your drinking water and sexual assault in the military. but first, with the other news of the day. here s hari sreenivasan. sreenivasan: the u.s. house voted today to block the obama administration from granting state waivers to work requirements under welfare. republicans charged the president is trying to gut the 1996 welfare reform law. last summer, the white house said it would grant waivers, if states can meet welfare-to-work goals by other means. so far, no state has applied for a waiver. the house bill is not expected to pass the democratic- controlled senate. a juvenile court in steubenville, ohio today opened a rape trial that s drawn international attention. the two defendants are high school football players, ages 16 and 17. they re accused of raping a 16- year-old girl last august. social media postings have fueled claims that other students should have been charged and that police under- played the incident to protect the football team. the police have denied it. in china, authorities near shanghai pulled hundreds more dead pigs from a river that provides drinking water to the city. in all, they ve found more than 6,600 pig carcasses in the water since friday. officials say the dead animals mayave been dumped swine farms upstream. the shanghai city government said it is monitoring water quality, and that so far, there is no sign of contamination. on wall street, stocks managed small gains in another relatively calm day of trading. the dow jones industrial average gained five points to close at 14,455. the nasdaq rose more than two points to close at 3,245. those are some of the day s major stories. now, back to judy. woodruff: amid a backdrop of budget negotiations, president obama kept up his bipartisan outreach today. newshour congressional correspondent kwame holman begins our coverage. reporter: the president s meeting with house republicans at the capitol was his first with them, on their turf, since january 2009, a week after his first inauguration. in an interview that aired on abc this morning, he sounded a note of optimism. right now, what i m trying to do is create an atmosphere where democrats and republicans can go ahead, get together, and try to get something done. reporter: but at the same time, the president said a sweeping, long-term deficit deal could be impossible, given republican opposition to higher taxes. ultimately, it may be that the differences are just too wide. if their position is, we can t do any revenue, or, we can only do revenue if we gut medicare or gut social security or gut medicaid, if that s the position, then we re probably not going to be able to get a deal. reporter: after the president left, house speaker john boehner replied that it s mr. obama who s the obstacle to getting a deal. we have a spending problem. we have to attack the spending. and the president understands, yeah we ve got some long term spending that we need to deal with. but he s going to hold hostage the fact that he wants to raise taxes on the american people again. that s not going to get us very far. reporter: some republicans, such as house budget chair paul ryan, on msnbc today, also questioned whether the meetings with lawmakers are just for show. the question is, is he going was the so-called charm offensive a temporary, you know, poll-driven political calculation, or was it a sincere conversion to try and bring people together and start communicating? reporter: other republicans expressed more optimism about the talks and about the larger process of compromise. there are going to be places we are going to disagree, and he recognizes that we recognize it, but that doesn t mean that we can t find places where as he would say where there is overlap and try to do those things and so it was encouraging, i was glad to have him come. reporter: for now, house republicans are going ahead with ryan s budget proposal, unveiled yesterday, to balance the federal ledger by 2023, relying heavily on spending cuts and entitlement reforms. democrats in the senate are pushing their own plan, a 50-50 mix of spending cuts and higher tax revenues. neither plan is given much chance of being enacted into law. woodruff: with the president putting renewed emphasis on bipartisanship, we take a broad look at whether that has been a successful strategy in politics and policy. joining us are michael beschloss, our regular presidential historian and marc hetherington, a political science professor at vanderbilt university and the author of two books on polarization and trust in u.s. politics. welcome to you both. so we just heard some republicans, michael beschloss, questioning whether the president is sincere in this and we know separately that a senior official at the white house was telling a reporter that they thought that he put that the outreach was just joke because they didn t expect it to produce results. so the first question i want to get out of the way with both of you is has it made a difference historically whether presidents, political leaders, were sincere in an effort? oh, certainly. and they re usually sincere, particularly eager to be conciliatory when there s one or both houses of congress in the hands of the other party as is the case now but the last 25 years or so have been different in american history in the intensity of the combat between the two parties and the aversion to compromise and i think you re seeing is the suspicion of the opposite party. look what happened to charlie crist in florida. they embraced, that killed his political career and he s now a democrat. woodruff: to so the intensity has gotten worse. what about that, mark heatherring to be? is that how you see it? that we re dealing with a much more strongly felt version of what s been here before? i think michael is right, especially compared with 25, 30 years ago. think about the reagan presidency and he was facing a house of representatives that was strongly democratic at that point but there were a lot of moderates in the democratic party back in that day and age. there were no moderates on either side of the aisle for a president to reach out to. in this case a democratic president reaching out to republican moderates. if there were then this would probably be a more successl effort. it s worth doing. i think it s one of those things where we live in these this media environment where all we hear is our side of things so getting the two sides together is certainly helpful process but whether it is able to overcome the polarization that we have these days, that s another story. woodruff: mark hetherington, i a question i often hear from people is is this a partisanship born out of ideological differences, strongly-held views that are opposite ends at the spectrum of belief or is it something rucral that s due to the way the parties are organized? well, i think it s a little bit of both. back in 1950s and 60s there was a lot of overlap in washington. there were conservative southern democrats, northern northeastern liberal republicans. and these days those things have changed. you can t really find moderates and liberals in the republican party or conservatives and too many moderates in the democratic party. so part of it is really ideological. we all agree on the ends that we want. we want peace, we want prosperity. but the means that the parties have in mind about how to accomplish those end, they re quite a lot different. so bringing the parties together these days is very, very difficult. woodruff: michael beschloss, what about this question of whether it s borne out of ideology, strongly different views, or is it the structure of the way our politics i don t think it has much to do with ideology at all. you look at this intense conflict, and most people who are in congress now will say it s worse than they ve ever seen it. you look at the kind of people who want to be the leaders of their partyinongess, it s not a gerald ford of the old days, someone who could make deals with the other side and is friendly with people from the other party. it s someone who can be the most intense partisan leader. that s also different. and you d think that this all came from there being issue differences like over the bank of the united states with andrew jackson or the runup to world war two, stay out or go in. franklin park zoo, 1940, nothing remotely close to that in terms of magnitude yet the intensity of the conflict is perhaps greater than most times in history. woodruff: yet if you were to sit a partisan republican and a partisan democrat the down here at this desk they would say we have very different views on taxes, on the role of government. i would say they certainly do. but you look out in the historical context, does that rise to the intensity of the conflict over slavery, for instance, in 1860? i don t think so. woodruff: mark hetherington, how do you see that? maybe so, but hopefully we ve come a long way since the 1860s and slavery. i hope we have. i would hope so, too. the fact of the matter i there used to be a situation in washington where the parties had different wings. a moderate wing and a liberal wing. so the party leaders who tended to come from the political middle had to bring the various parts of the caucuses together. now the split is in the caucuses are in, say, between for the republicans between the conservative and the very conservative. there s very little centrist incentive to move the parties in that direction in congress and, you know, at this point i think republicans realize, boy, if we make a grandarga with the president he s going to get credit for it, it s not going to be us. so the incentives in the process will have to change to see anything different happening. and they fear they might get primaried, which is a relatively recent verb but it s something that s very much on their mind in a way that wasn t so much before. the way you raise money is to exaggerate conflict. the way you get on not the newshour but most peeve too + ef is to hype up your differences with the other side. so there are a lot of rewards for a member of congress who wants to be combative and a penalty if he wants to or she wants to compromise. woodruff: let me ask both of you to put this question in some context. given where we are today, what s the likelihood that the two sides this time are going to be able to come together and work something out. mark hetherington? well, i m i m a little bit pessimistic at this point. we know that the woodruff: only a little bit? (laughter) well, i m more than a little bit pessimistic. we know the sides are drawn the way they are. it used to be there is a time when therwereess parsan people in the public at large. so ronald reagan could go out to the public and say hey, look, i have this idea. let s put pressure on your members of congress to come around to that. but that won t happen these days. both partisans in washington and partisans in the electorate, they don t like the other side. and that make compromise very difficult to come by. woodruff: how do you see it, michael? the last 12 years we had the first attack of the continental united states by someone else since the war of 1812. not much bipartisanship after that catastrophe. the worst economic cataclysm since the great depression, not too much bipartisanship after that, either so. my view is if they didn t knock it off after events like this, it is rather bleak. woodruff: so maybe we need to have a discussion on whether it matters that there s bipartisanship or not. whether we re better off if they don t agree. maybe they re telling us something. a lot to say. woodruff: michael beschloss, mike hetherington. thank you. thanks, judy. thanks for having us. ifill: now, newshour science correspondent miles o brien begins a two-part look at america s drinking water, and the regulatory system that is supposed to guarantee its safety. his report is the result of a partnership with the center for public integrity. it begins in the small desert town that made erin brockovich a household name. come on, you want some water. come on, drink some drink. reporter: clean water is something most of us take for granted. but not roberta walker. she, her dogs, and her family drink spring water that is either bottled or trucked in. because where she lives, people can t drink the well water. welcome to hinkley, california. this was bought out, this home on the right, this is all boarded up. reporter: roberta drove me around town what s left of it. there was a home here on the corner and that of course is gone. reporter: it is a ghost town? ya, ya. reporter: the steady decline of hinkley is rooted here at a natural gas pipeline pumping station owned by the giant california utility pacific gas and electric. in the 1950s and 60s, p.g.&.e. admits it dumped 26 tons of coolant made of chromium 6 into unlined retaining ponds here. the chemical is toxic and causes cancer. it leached into the soil and contaminated the aquifer the drinking water in hinkley. the hollywood version of the story is writ large in the movie erin brockovich, released in 2000. julia roberts won an academy award for her portrayal of the crusading legal assistant who forced p.g.&e. into a $333 million settlement with the residents of hinkley in 1996. but for roberta, there was no hollywood ending. so your house was right about here? um, yes. reporter: p.g.& e. did buy and raze her old home, as they did for many others here. so she built this place on the outskirts of town out of harms way, or so she thought. so far, p.g.& e. has spent $700 million trying to clean up the stubborn mess. but the plume of chromium 6 tainted water persists. sheryl bilbrey is in charge of p.g.&e. s remediation effort. why is it taking so long? it s a very complex project. we are highly regulated. there are a lot of interested parties. the other thing is it s very important to us that we geit right. reporter: recent testing shows there is still chromium 6 in the groundwater in roberta walkers neighborhood. it is less than it was in the bad old days, but roberta is still girding to move once again, this time away from hinkley. did you ever think you would ever have to deal with chromium 6 or p.g.e. again. absolutely not, absolutely not. in front of god and the world they said they were going to clean it up. reporter: and? and they didn t. it was just it s a shocker. reporter: for the real life erin brockovich it was also an unwelcome surprise. i thought it was being cleaned up. the state thought it was being cleaned up. the community thought it was being cleaned up. so here it is ten years later, i m not paying attention because i thought it s all being handled. reporter: brockovich is now an environmental activist on a larger stage, curating a crowd- sourced map of reported cancer clusters, which she says are largely linked to chromium contaminated water nationwide. there s more and more amounting evidence or what chromium 6 does to the human health, what it does to the environment, what it does to the air. every community that i deal with that has been exposed to chromium 6, they have the same health symptoms, they have the same problems. reporter: in 2010, a nonprofit advocacy organization, the environmental working group, tested tap water in 35 u.s. cities 31 of them were contaminated with chromium 6. utility testing records how about 70 million americans are drinking this tainted water. with evidence mounting that chromium 6 may be more dangerous than once thought, the environmental protection agency decided to revisit the drinking water standard for the chemical. the standard 100 parts per billion was set 20 years ago. it is 5,000 times greater than the california e.p.a. s public health goal for chromium 6 in drinking water: .02 parts per billion. ann mason is a senior director with the american chemistry council, which represents the chemical industry. the people in t unid states are drinking water that meets the e.p.a. safe drinking water level. reporter: would you say categorically, it s okay? everybody is safe? i would say if the drinking water meets the safe drinking water level that e.p.a. has set that level and that s the rule of the land as we see it right now. reporter: there is a lot of research that links chromium 6 in drinking water to cancer. in 2008, the national institutes of health weighed in with an eye-openg rodent study. it uncovered clear evidence that high doses of chromium 6 in drinking water cause cancer in rats and mice. heather white is executive director of the environmental working group. we think that science is clear. there s been a lot more research that we ve seen of the last decade that shows that there is a big cause for concern about drinking hexavalent chromium whether it would be stomach cancer, whether it be liver damage, whether it be toxicity. reporter: after the erin brockovich movie in 2000, california lawmakers decided life should imitate art. they chartered a so-called blue ribbon panel of scientists to help set a chromium 6 drinking water standard for the state. one of the scientists on the panel was this man, dennis paustenbach. the newshour and the center for public integrity learned the company he ran, chemrisk, had been hired by pacific gas and electric during the lawsuit. at the time, the most compelling scientific study that linked chromium 6 in drinking water to cancer came from china in 1987. it studied villagers in liaoning province who lived near a chromium ore smelter and drank tainted water for years. the lead author a dr. zhang jiandong. found they had increased rates of stomach cancer. acting on behalf of its client p.g.&e., chemrisk paid zhang to redo his study. paustenbach offered this explanation before the california senate. after he saw the questions that we raised about the analysis, he went back and examined and said, of course not, it can t be true. my original conclusions don t make sense. reporter: the revised study reversed the original conclusion that chromium 6 was the likely cause of the villagers developing cancer. scientists at the california environmental protection agency were skeptical and took a look at the underlying data themselves. allan hirsch is with cal/e.p.a. reporter: the original study itself, was it good science? well, our analysis which we completed in 2008 agreed with the original 1987 paper. we found that the rates of stomach cancer in these five villages were significantly higher than stomach cancer rates in the overall province. reporter: the california epa set its public health goal of .02 parts per billion in 2011. the next step, changing the drinking water standards, has not happened. there s been a fair amount of study about hexavalent chromium over the years. is that scientific jury in? i don t think so. there are a lot of scientists that are still debating that question. i think that s why the process has taken so long from what i ve read both at e.p.a. and at the state level. so, i think they re still trying to figure out exactly what is the right answer there. reporter: back in hinkley, i got tour of the massive p.g.& e. cleanup project. kevin sullivan is the engineer in charge. they have buried a concrete barrier and are pumping ethanol into the ground, which converts chromium 6 into a more benign form of chemical called chromium 3. they have also planted acres of alfalfa that is irrigated with the tainted water. the rich organic soil also makes the conversion. so that is now chromium 3 in your hand. exactly. reporter: there is so much alfalfa, the utility now owns a thriving dairy farm. but since the ethanol injections began, a new problem seems to have surfaced. residents have started reporting elevated levels of arsenic and manganese in their wells. p.g.&e. says its occurs naturally and has always been there. nevertheless, when sullivan appears at community meetings here. there is dirty water on the table and angry accusations in the air. the community is in an uproar right now. we are not just being poisoned by chromium. we got high arsenic levels, manganese. all this can lead you to believe that p.g.e. really don t give a crap about anyone of you. i don t want to live here. i don t want my family here. i have no choice. no one will buy my home. who wants to move into this? reporter: but sullivan insists they are making progress. we have cleaned up like 54 acres. now i know that i know if it is not yours, what have you done for me lately, but 54 acres is a lot of progress. we have a long way to go but these are positive signs that we have been able to achieve in the last few years. reporter: it will be anopther 40 years ifill: in part two of his report on friday miles takes a closer look at the environmental protection agency s system for regulating toxic chemicals in the environment. online, we go behind-the-scenes in hinkley and you can also check out chromium levels in the water of 31 u.s. cities. woodruff: we ll be back shortly with a look at sexual assault cases in the u.s. military. but first: this is pledge week on pbs. this break allows your public television station to ask for your support. and that support helps keep programs like ours on the air. ifill: for those stations not taking a pledge break, we take a second look at a story about art and activism. jeffrey brown recently visited the first north american exhibit for chinese artist ai weiwei at the smithsonian institution s hirshhorn museum in washington, d.c. reporter: antique wooden stools from the qing dynasty, re-purposed into a sculpture called grapes. a video documenting changes along a major street in beijing; an ancient vase, creatively altered or debased. you decide with a modern day logo. these are works by the chinese artist ai wei wei. a prankster who can make a tea house literally out of tea leaves. and represents the real surveillance camera that watches him at his home in china as a marble sculpture. he s also a visionary who helped design the bird s nest stadium for the beijing olympics. and whose use of social media is shifting the boundaries of art and activism and a dissident pressing for human rights, who took a picture and tweeted it even as he was being arrested in 2009. and then spent 81 days in prison, was beaten and made the x-ray image of the damage he suffered into an art work, brain inflation. reporter: ai lives and works in beijing and is not allowed by the government to travel outside china. he spoke recently to a camera crew hired by the newshour to pose our questions. reporter: born in 1957, ai is the son of a renowned poet. the father and his family, including the young wei wei, were sent to be re-educated in a 1981, lived in the u.s. for 12 years. his new york photographs for me, ai wei wei has been one of the most important artists that has emerged from this new wave of chinese art from the 90s and the 2000s. reporter: kerry brougher is chief curator at the hirshhorn. you can see the history of china reflected in much of the work. you can see conflicts with western culture and eastern culture and you can see critiques of the chinese government or of other governments as well. power in general. reporter: often you can see a provocation, as in one of ai s most famous works, dropping a han dynasty urn. three photographs showing exactly that the destruction of a 2,000-year-old cultural relic. one of the things i think he s saying is, sometimes, it s necessary to destroy the old before you can move forward with the new. and also, by destroying something that s important, it suddenly makes you have to think about the value of things. what are they worth? who say s they re valuable? reporter: ai returned to china in 1993 and became part of the country s cultural elite, eventually tapped by the government to collaborate with a swiss architectural firm to design the 2008 olympics stadium. photos are on the floors and but he grew critical of the communist party s attempt to control the event. his biggest confrontation with the authorities soon followed, after the earthquake in sichuan province and more than 5,000 children were killed in poorly constructed schools that collapsed, leading to accusations of official corruption and a coverup. ai photographed the destruction and started an online campaign to collect the names, ages and other data for each victim. that became a wall-sized display and an audio recording called remembrance. he also transformed tragedy into art: collecting some 38 tons of twisted steel rebar from the destruction, straightening and and, picking up one particularly poignant image from the rubble. he created a long, serpentine work constructed of children s backpacks. the documentary film ai wei wei: never sorry captured some of his attempts to gain information on what had happened. filmmaker alison klayman spent three years watching ai wei wei up close in his work as artist and activist. to him, what is the definition of an artist? it s someone who is interested in communication, who is interested in engagement, who has to be talking about the things that are relevant to the world around him or her. reporter: indeed, communication and new technology the internet and social media became a passion for ai. beginning in 2006 and lasting three years, he wrote a blog about art, life and politics before it was shut down by the verent. he now spends hours a day online and remains very active on twitter, though it is blocked within china. reporter: ai wei wei continues to make museum-ready objects, such as cube light, a huge chandelier that refers to the traditions of both chinese lanterns and western minimalist art. he also continues to speak his mind. reporter: after his release from prison in 2011, ai was charged with tax evasion and hit with a multi-million dollar fine, which his backers see as further punishment for his activism. woodruff: online you can see more of our interview with ai wei wei. he said he ll never be optimistic about china s new leadership. we also have more from our interviews about the artist and you can view a slide show of images from the exhibit. woodruff: finally tonight, we return to the issue of sexual assaults in the military. earlier today, victims testified before congress about what they went through and the changes they think need to be made in the armed forces. women in combat zones are more likely to be raped by a fellow soldier than killed by the enemy. but, of the nearly 4,000 reports of sexual assault in the military last year, only 191 defendants were convicted at courts martial. and, because very few victims actually come forward, the real number of cases is estimated at 19,000. those numbers from the pentagon have fixed new attention on the problem with stories in the new york times and rolling stone magazine on rape survivors and the oscar-nominated documentary the invisible war , filled with testimonials from military veterans who were sexually assaulted. i reported it two different times to my squad leader, and he told me there was nothing i could do about it because i didn t have any proof. they took me before my lieenancommder,e sa do you think this is funny, and i said what do you mean? and he s like, is this all a joke to you? i was like what do you mean? and he goes, you re the third girl to report rape this week are you guys like all in cahoots, do you think this is a game? woodruff: today, a senate armed services sub-committee took up the issue, starting with anu bhagwati of the service women s action network. during my five years as a marine officer i experienced daily discrimination and sexual harassment. i was exposed to a culture rife with sexism, rape jokes, pornography, and widespread commercial sexual exploitation of women and girls both in the united states and overseas. woodruff: from there, the panel heard first-hand accounts from victims, both women and men. brigette mccoy is a former army specialist. i m a gulf war era service disabled veteran. i was raped during military service and during my first assignment. that was 1988, i was 18 years old, it was two weeks before my 19th birthday. woodruff: former navy petty officer brian lewis also appeared said to be the first male victim of military rape to testify before congress. during my tour on the u.s.s. frank cable, i was raped by a superior non commissioned officer. i was ordered by my command not to report this crime. woodruff: rebekah havrilla, a former army sergeant, said she did not report her rape initially and then. approximately a year after separating from active duty, i was on orders for job training. and during that time i ran into my rapist at a post store. he recognized me and told me he was stationed on same installation. i was so retraumatized that i removed myself from training and i sought out assistance from chaplain who told me among other things that the rape was god s will and god was trying to get my attention so that i would go back to church. six months later, perp had taken photographs during my rape, at that point i felt it would always haunt me unless i did somhing aboutt. i went to c.i.d. and a full investigation was completed. it was the most humiliating thing i have experienced. i had to relive the entire event for four hours and explain what was going on in each of the pictures. woodruff: senator kirsten gillibrand chairing the subcommittee got a mixed response, when she ked if an outside prosecutor would help in reporting crimes, by moving the process outside the chain of command. an independent prosecutor would have made a world of difference. it would have gotten reporting outside chain of command and not enabled my commanding officer to sweep this under the rug. had i actually gone through with a full investigation while serving, i would have had to live with the men who were abusive toward me. that s not anything i would have ever wanted to go through. independent prosecutor aside. the challenge is partially changing the culture within the military with how women are viewed. woodruff: later, defense department officials acknowledged the military culture must change. major general gary patton directs the sexual assault prevention and response office. underpinning all efforts is need for culture change. where sexist behavior are not tolerated, condoned. i believe we will know change when prevention of sexual assault is as scrutinized as friendly fire. we will know when they produce same reaction as hearing racist slur. we are not there yet. woodruff: the new defense secretary chuck hagel promised stronger leadership on the issue, at his confirmation hearing last month. it s not good enough just to say zero tolerance. the whole chain of command needs to be accountable for this all the way down to the bottom. woodruff: hagel has already ordered a review of an air force general s decision to overturn a sexual assault conviction against an officer who served in italy. ifill: again, the major developments of the day: cardinal jorge bergoglio of argentina was elected pope the first leader of the world s catholics to hail from the americas. he took the name francis. vatican officials announced the new pontiff will be formally installed next tuesday. vice president biden will lead the u.s. delegation. woodruff: online, we give you three rules for getting the most from your social security benefits. hari sreenivasan explains. sreenivasan: the system for determining your eligibility is not very user-friendly. larry kotlikoff offers some general rules to help maximize your benefit check without the headache on making sense. why does china have its own plus, on monday s newshour, we discussed what happens to your digital assets after death. in a live chat tomorrow at 1:00 p.m. eastern time. all that and more is on our website newshour.pbs.org. gwen? ifill: and that s the newshour for tonight. i m gwen ifill. woodruff: and i m judy woodruff. we ll see you on-line and again here tomorrow evening. thank you and good night. major funding for the pbs newshour has been provided by: moving our economy for 160 years. bnsf, the engine that connects us. and with the ongoing support of these institutions and support also comes from carnegie corporation of new york, a foundation created to do what andrew carnegie called real and permanent good. celebrating 100 years of philanthropy at carnegie.org. and with the ongoing support of these institutions and foundations. a. this program was made possible by the corporation for public broadcasting. and by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. thank you. captioning sponsored by macneil/lehrer productions captioned by media access group at wgbh access.wgbh.org