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Global investors have been jolted from notions of a glide-path back to pre-pandemic norms and are once against scrambling to game another series of potential shocks along the way. For many, the alarming threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, a standoff with NATO forces and the risk of another energy price explosion just reinforces ...
May 03, 2021 One of the key measures business leaders have been eyeing closely to gauge the recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic has been capital expenditures (capex), which took a huge hit in the first two quarters of 2020. The good news is that capex has been enjoying a boom, even outpacing the rebound in consumer spending. “I think capex was one of the surprising areas of resilience in the last quarter of 2020, and the latest indicators point to solid capex growth right through the first quarter as well,” says Joe Lupton, economist at JPMorgan Chase in New York. Lupton says that while consumer-goods spending slumped in November and December due to the second wave in US infections over Thanksgiving and Christmas, capex spending actually expanded at about 1.5% a month in the same period. The rest of the world has been slower to recover than the US economy, but there are signs that capex is ramping up elsewhere as well.
reduction in china's growth was associated with a 10 point decline in oil prices and half point increase in global gpd growth. while it's clear that the chinese economy is in a downturn, joe lupton from jpmorgan chase says we shouldn't think of this as a traditional collapse in the making. even the government can and will avoid a crisis no matter what, just as it has done in the past and it has plenty of cash to spend. still, the credit binge will way on china's economy for years to come, he adds, and it's not a pretty picture even if it's not a picture of collapse. but even if china weathers the crisis, what happens to so many countries from brazil to australia, that have gotten used to a turbo charged china buying all of their goods?
while people worry about europe's slump and its implications, europe is not that significant. by contrast, china, which in 2007 replaced the united states as the largest engine of global growth, is far more important, says sharma. jpmorgan chase attempted to quantify china's global footprint and found a 1 point reduction in china's growth was associated with a 10 point decline in oil prices and, on average, an almost half point, increase in global gdp growth. while it's clear that the chinese economy is in a downturn, joe lupton, a senior global economist at jpmorgan chase, cautions that we shouldn't think of this as a traditional crisis in the making, a house of cards about to collapse. even if people stop lending to china, lupton reminds us, the chinese economy is heavily state owned and the government can and will intervene to avoid a crisis no matter what, just as it has done in the past and it has plenty of cash to spend. still, the credit binge will weigh on china's economy for years to come, he adds, and it's not a pretty picture even if it's not a picture of collapse. but even if china weathers the crisis, what happens to so many countries, from brazil to australia, that have gotten used to a turbo-charged china buying all of their goods? in a strange way, china might be able to adjust to its slow down better than the rest of the world.