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April 25, 2021 | Stumbling to Scarcity John Mauldin John Mauldin is a renowned financial expert, a New York Times best-selling author, and a pioneering online commentator. Each week, over 1 million readers turn to Mauldin for his penetrating view on Wall Street, global markets, and economic history. In economic forecasting, reality is usually somewhere between the extremes. The best-case and worst-case rarely happen. That’s why, when they do happen, markets react so quickly to the “missed expectations.” I saw this early in my career. Realizing we will “muddle through” most of our problems was immensely valuable and sometimes profitable. But as our problems grow in scale, I’ve had to change my attitude. Now I usually expect to “stumble through,” as we see more of those extremes, and more extreme reactions to them. We still make it, but with some bruised knees and painful scrapes. ....
do happen, markets react so quickly to the “missed expectations.” I saw this early in my career. Realizing we will “muddle through” most of our problems was immensely valuable and sometimes profitable. But as our problems grow in scale, I’ve had to change my attitude. Now I usually expect to “stumble through,” as we see more of those extremes, and more extreme reactions to them. We still make it, but with some bruised knees and painful scrapes. Consider two views of the current US inflation outlook. Some expect major economic growth as we subdue the coronavirus and stimulus spending moves through the economy. Prices will rise and generate significant inflation, due to both increased demand and supply chain disruption. That’s why the Fed maintains (and I agree) that we will likely see higher inflation but it will be transitory. Nine to 12 months from now, much of the supply/demand mismatch should be back in balance at least in the US. Much of the world i ....