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taxes. so if he gets on the ballot and in the race that's a win for president trump for sure because you have two democrats biden and kennedy that will be splitting the vote. if kennedy -- i know young people somehow under 30 numbers look like they are going towards him. that's where joe biden is trying to hang onto those votes. those under 30 a lot are shifting to president trump. so it is early in that sense that people don't know really who r.f.k., jr. is. when he is for taxes and spending the same as joe biden, bring it on. let them split the democrat vote. >> dana: when he got on the michigan ballot it was a clever move and the biden team has gone after them. hillary clinton said what president trump wants to do is get rid of his opposition. watch her here. >> trump is like just gaga.

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Trump on Trial New York v. Donald Trump

illegal or legal on whether or not he's convicted by a jury. they made a calculated effort to seek to hide information so they could win the election so it wouldn't come out. that is i'm sure what the calculus was. >> robert, just wondering your thoughts, the very few political candidates are 100% pure without any kind of issues, very few. but in this case, robert, there was a lot to the catch and kill plan. especially after the access hollywood tape. what do you think this would have influenced? >> well, i think matthew hit it on the head. i mean, look, every campaign starts knowing that you've got vulnerabilities, and you have a research department that documents those vulnerabilities. they may be bad votes. they may be bad loans. you may look at your opponent and say, oh, they found out they

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Trump on Trial New York v. Donald Trump

didn't pay their property taxes on time. nothing of course rises to the level of what is described and what has happened here, but i think matthew's right in that this is going to -- would have really depressed republican votes just at the point in which you are trying to turn out your base of supporters to make sure they vote, and i think just a few thousand in a few states would have tipped this election. they probably talked to people about the impact of what this would have undoubtedly throughout the campaign and have a plan to make sure it simply didn't come out so that those evangelical voters or whatnot that saw donald trump as their candidate didn't get depressed in not voting right at election day. >> thank you so much, matthew dowd and robert gibbs. let's go back to our vaughn hillyard again at the courthouse with more reporting from inside the courtroom during opening statements. vaughn, fill us in.

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Morning Joe

Morning Joe
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Morning Joe

think, is even if he keeps the job, it's a question of the power of the position. there are open questions about whether or not a sort of coalition governance can work in the house. it is a very majority-focused body, as you guys all know, but for mike johnson, there are the votes right now. three republicans say that they want him to no longer be the speaker of the house. there seems to be a difference of opinion on how they get out of the job, a motion to vacate or pressuring him to resign. there's also enough democrats right now that would save his job. that's where we come back to the idea of the power of his position. i think that's the explanation for why i have heard from republican members of congress who support the speaker, who also say he's basically done in his role. now, whether or not they mean he is done tomorrow or whether or not they mean he is done in november when they start thinking about what the next congress looks like, that's, i think, the question we're waiting to see the answer to.

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Outnumbered

people and made the decision the first time. most people aren't changing their minds because you are relitigating something that happened in that long ago and trying to find a place where he could have maybe been illegal and maybe you can convince a jury from manhattan to believe that. if we look at their presidential politics of it, i don't think it hurts him at all. the problem is, does it get a hung jury? does he have to go back for another six weeks? that he can't go and raise money. i think he can get the votes. he can keep the votes are around in the support. he has to be able to raise money to have a staff that i can have a campaign. if they can keep him away from that, that's the bigger issue. >> harris: we witnesses merrily see that play out before november. mollie, there is a maybe for the former president from his perspective a silver lining. he doesn't get to talk about these cases. it is a gag order after gag order on trump on the cases. he does get to talk about what

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Morning Joe

they've been a little less accurate than in the past. nonetheless, this is a pretty significant move for the betting markets. they've been sitting there at roughly 50/50 for these two candidates for a long time. so you are seeing some pretty positive green chutes, we can call them, for president biden, all of these numbers. >> yeah. steve, we'll get to your charts in one moment. i do want to go to jon meacham. jon, you never know how things are going to break. i talked about john anderson in 1980, a republican, fellow republican, who believed he was going to draw from ronald reagan. he ended up getting a lot of liberals and getting a lot of college students voting for him. he got his 5%, but that came from jimmy carter, most of it. of course, speaking of rfk, we go back to 1968, something you and i have talked about a good bit. the kennedy family still trying to figure out how after bobby's tragic assassination, his votes, many of his votes went to george

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Morning Joe

1980. of course, ross perot in 1992, who got 19%. still a huge debate within bush world, both the senior president bush, believed perot cost him the election. when you dive into the data, it gets tricky. but when you have an alternative to the duopoly, you end up in a very chancy place. particularly because, and this is why every single vote counts, particularly when you talk about such small margins. 500 votes here, 500 votes there, and, you know, to paraphrase, suddenly, you're talking about, you know, that adds up to the presidency of the united states. so i think everybody has to have, if i may, a mike johnson

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Morning Joe

wallace. still can't sort it through. you never know how this is going to break. at least in this nbc news poll, it certainly looks like one anti-vaxer is going to be, you know -- a conspiracy theorist, i guess i should say, is going to be taking votes from another conspiracy theorist. >> that's certainly where sort of common sense, barstool analysis would lead you, right? if you're thinking about voting for an anti-vax person, i don't think your second choice is going to be the democratic incumbent who believes in science and is a politician who is arguing for a constitutional and rational order. doesn't seem like exactly where you'd go. historically, you're right, wallace in '68, john anderson in

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Morning Joe

previously said they would support trump now say they would back rfk jr., compared to just 7% of former biden voters who say the same. >> you never know how this is going to break. in 1980, john anderson ran. >> you kind of get the thinking. >> they're conspiracy theorists. >> exactly. >> john anderson ran as a republican against ronald reagan. >> yeah. >> jimmy carter, he ended up taking votes away from jimmy carter. >> right. >> when his intent was to take votes away from ronald reagan. again, in this case -- >> so interesting. >> -- we're seeing the same thing happen. >> president joe biden's odds of winning re-election are the highest as they have been in at least three months. on the website predictit, it costs 54 cents to bet on a biden victory and 45 cents to bet on a trump victory. the more likely outcome is the more it costs to bet on. biden's odds have been steadily increasing over the past month after trump's odds reached a

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