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CNBC Mad Money February 10, 2012



without saying that greece is indeed back on the griddle. and i don't like the taste of it one bit. everyone says the greeks will eventually have to except the german deal because the alternative's so horrible. and i'm getting actually a little worried. you know what? i actually get defcon worried. like in defcon 2, where we've been waiting for this deal. because when everybody is on one side of the boat, funny thing, the boat may tip over. i have to tell you, i actually believe there could be a really heavy sell-off if greece goes under and out of the euro and perhaps the european union altogether. and going into this week, i thought that was a very low possibility. but now you know something? after the last 48 hours i think there's a 30% chance that the greeks are kicked out. the whole world is now fed up with greece. and there's a real chance that the greeks will back themselves into a corner they can't get out of. they have lied and lied to the leaders of the eu. and while i know they're experiencing a lot of hardship, the lies have finally caught up with them. and the germans will no longer tolerate any phony deals with this country. we might look back and say you know what, it was much ado about nothing last week, the greek deal held up, it's all hunky-dory, what was cramer fretting about. to which i say terrific. but can i at least wait and see? still, all that said, when it comes to this market, greece is not the word. and once the big bad event is out of the word either with a positive or negative resolution, i'll most likely be thrilled to have it behind us. while others will then fret about portugal, i'll be looking to buy american stocks, particularly the regional banks as well as multinationals without a lot of european exposure. so the whole week will be colored by the usual european union chatter, starting with sunday's greek vote and then focusing around talks that should bubble up on wednesday until we get more clarity, you know what? we've got a big sell-off on monday or tuesday, you can buy small. but anything big, that's a mistake. using the european prism, yep, it's back again where we are, here's what we're looking at. all right. first, monday, masco, the housing play. think kitchen and bath fixtures. i think housing is on the mend in this country, particularly after the foreclosure deal yesterday. and this stock's a couple bucks off its high. let the bears claw at it because you shouldn't be buying masco for this quarter. it's a play on the second half turn. and i like it. but i'd like even more of it if it were lower. tuesday we're going to be -- this is it. the first quarter we're going to hear from michael kors. it's a red-hot apparel ipo that could be a terrific one, a la ralph lauren and coach. but the valuation here is awful. let's see if kors sells off when it reports before the open, and you get a chance to pick up a new long-term story that is still in its infancy. we will also hear from zinga on tuesday, the social gaming company. will it be like the hideous groupon, an overvalued wild kafrd a company that seems totally unseasoned? or will it be like linkedin, which delivered a masterful quarter and while overvalued has a level of momentum that is loved by the high-growth mutual funds? unfortunately, i think it's a groupon. i'm a seller. wednesday's eu day. this will be the first day we have some real clarity, although you know in europe even clear is murky. that's why we've got to pay close attention to the great american companies reporting on wednesday, whose stocks could be potentially trashed through no fault of their own. companies like deere, a name that my charitable trust owns, which always does such a horrible job on its conference call and then levitates a couple days after its self-hammering. or a company like devon, which is a terrific oil company. theme brought down by its natural gas exposure. i'll listen to both and opine that night. acting before then, it might just be too risky. now, you know me. i am a bit of a gold bug. and the best of the best, goldcorp, reports wednesday night. gg. remember we used to call it gg? they need to bounce back from an uncertain 2011. so let's take a listen. i'm sure you'll hear again just how hard it is these days to get the yellow metal out of the ground, one of the reasons why it stays so expensive. thursday we hear from one of the biggest disappointments of this era, general motors. they scrubbed the books. they took out the costs, made a new labor deal. they've revamped the product line, all before they brought it public. and now almost everyone's still got a colossal loss. i think that gm has no idea how to deal with wall street. europe will be week. thank heavens they told the journal that this week. they do, they'll have a big chinese business. and let's just say if china is going to cut rates and the expectations for europe are all wrenched out, then if it gets to 22, i might tell you to buy it. we've got vf corp. on thursday, too. this is a special situation. this stock has roared back. because why? because of a great company viewed as its sister play, ralph lauren. it's too early to have north face the key division blow away the numbers. and vf has a big european business. so does ralph lauren. i'm more concerned about vf. stock hs a huge run. this is a new one, because people know i like this company. but i'd rather take profits ahead of the quarter. perhaps here. really gets hammered and we like it anyway, maybe we come back to it. friday brings us two food stocks that i'm on the fence about. campbell's soup and heinz. i keep thinking about irwin simon, the excellent ceo of hain celestial, what he told us, which is that anything in a can is now perceived to be unhealthy, or at least passe. and is campbell's ever in a can. heinz? here you have currency risk, commodity risk, and european risk. the one thing you don't have with heinz, though, is that it has 57 varieties. same age as me now. anyway, it's not cheap. i need to see this 3.7% yielder trade down to where it yields more than 4% before i get interested. finally next week we've got an ipo, and i am incredibly interested in it. it's called bright cove. it's a video platform that makes internet video tv look as good as actual tv. we know that akamai reported a terrific quarter, also withstood the downturn today. we know the web's day has come. so i think brightcove, a morning stanley deal, will be one you have to participate in if you can get shares. speaking of morgan stanley, don't forget they have the facebook deal, too so it doesn't hurt to work with them ahead of it. we've been up practically in a straight line all year. we've had a fantastic run. that means the bottom line remains that greece is a real issue, don't ignore, it one that can go wrong to the point where we give up some of these bountiful gains. so let me give you three stocks you can watch to measure the pain. the fxe, the euro proxy which must stay above 130. went out today at 1313918. if we're going to feel confident that europe won't have a hugely negative impact on our market, then currency matters. many of our multinationals like a heinz get hurt by a severely declining euro versus the dollar. second keep an eye on caterpillar which even though it's hardly levered to europe versus the rest of the world nevertheless trades with it. cat's had a terrific run. that could color the whole market. finally, here's a new name in terms of greece. i want you to stay on the wells fargo case. it has zero european exposure, but it can be brought down by the xlf, the exchange traded fund that encapsulates the financials, of which wells fargo is the dominant entry. people short the xlf, knocks down wells. after the foreclosure deal i think this one's a buy if it gets brought down by greece. in fact, wells fargo's probably the single best test of how well our markets are going to weather the trojan horse that never seems to stop plaguing us. it's what i will urge you to buy if we get any resolution either way by this time next week. let's go to mark in arizona. mark. >> caller: hi, jim. a big boo-yah to you. this is mark from tucson, arizona, formerly from washington crossing, pennsylvania. >> down the block from me, chief. what's going on? >> caller: yes. with all that's going on in europe, what is your take on totale? tot. >> i like total very much. this is an underestimated company. it's very well run. has a lot of mideast exposure which worries people. yields 5.5%. total, it's for me. how about stafford in oregon? stafford. >> caller: hey, jim, how are you today? >> i'm real -- it's a good day. how about you about there, buddy? >> caller: hey, good, thanks. my question is regarding google. i read yesterday that they're coming out with an entertainment system. i was wondering how this would affect their stock. >> i think that google has become a press release company, or at least a story company. i like earnings. i don't like these announcements. announcements don't cut it from me unless they're from apple and it's a real improvement. i'm saying google, it's not my favorite. you know that after the last quarter. if you ever want to schnitzel a little google, take it off the table, i'm all for it. once the big bad event of greece is out of the way i'll be thrilled to check out american stocks. until then do you mind if we wait and see? "mad money" will be right back. >> announcer: coming up, hack attack. from bank accounts to credit cards to e-mail, more parts of our lives are online and at risk of being hacked. cramer's seeking a cybersecurity spec stock that can help protect your portfolio. and later, battle of the beds. cramer rarely gets shuteye. but tonight by request he's finding out which mattress maker could help you build a portfolio of your dreams and wake up with "mad money." all coming up on "mad money." [ male announcer ] the draw of the past is a powerful thing. but we couldn't simply repeat history. we had to create it. introducing the 2013 lexus gs, with leading-edge safety technology, like available blind spot monitor... [ tires screech ] ...night view... and heads-up display. 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[ male announcer ] michelin knows it's better for xerox to help manage their finance processing. so they can focus on keeping the world moving. with xerox, you're ready for real business. on a hideous day that was reminiscent of last year's ugliness, a day when we were brought low by greece again, i need to remind you that this pullback is the exception in 2012, not the rule. this market's been on a remarkable tear. and while we were due for some kind of sell-off, i just don't believe that it's going to be derailed by the idiocy in athens. unless greece exits the euro. something that could occur. and i admit to being on edge about. otherwise, there's just too much good news going on here at home to cause me to forget about this market. last year when the averages started plunging you had to get out because they were only going to fall some more after they'd plunged already. that's now abnormal. in a healthy market you use pullbacks as buying opportunities, ands ahard as it may be for some of you to believe, this market is now pretty darn healthy. that's why tonight i feel i have to accentuate some of the positives and focus on an area that's going to be red hot regardless of what happens in europe. a long-term theme that's still in its early innings. even as it has already given us big multiyear gains. i'm talking about cybersecurity. the need to protect your precious data from viruses. and especially hackers. who would love to get their hands on all sorts of personal information that's now stored in the computers around the world. right now the senate is working on a big cybersecurity bill. that senate bill should come out sometime next week. and even though we've gotten used to the permanent state of gridlock in washington, this is one of the few issues where there's actually fairly broad-based bipartisanship. the legislation would require companies to take appropriate precautions against online threats. with the homeland security department empowered to enforce the law. and it's not just the federal government. states all over the country have been passing data security laws with tighter compliance requirements. but next week the senate, hey, that's a catalyst. even without washington, though, firms would still be spending money to protect their networks out of pure necessity. for many companies stopping hacking has become just a cost of doing business. and protect the privacy of their customers is now essential to protecting their reputations. but the reason cyber security is such a great sbiz hackers get more sophisticated by the day. they are relentless. they are tenacious. that's why these days companies need to be able to detect threats that are hidden within legitimate content, even from trusted sources and authorized applications. think about it p. over the last decade the entire nature of cyber security has changed. you don't need to just protect yourself against malicious e-mails. now you have to deal with threats that can come at you through the least -- through the latest social networking tools. they can come at you through twitter or facebook. i got hacked terribly two weeks ago. just a miserable experience. traditional security technologies simply haven't been able to keep up. they often can't tell the difference between malicious and legitimate content. and that's where cramer speculative fave fortinet, ftnt, comes in. ftnt. they are the dominant provider of what's known as unified threat management technology, a comprehensive integrated suite of cyber security products and services that provides unmatched protection, allowing their clients to detect and eliminate complex threats without totally locking down their systems. look, the idea here, rather than buying your firewall from one guy, your anti-virus software, or a.v. as i know they call it after i got hacked, from another, your web and spam filtering from a third and so forth, fortinet offers the whole suite. the network security package. which is cheaper than buying each component individually and also makes it easier for companies to comply with federal and state data security regulations. by the way, i got this one from the very smart brian ashtonberg. my colleague at thestreet.com. he runs a terrific breakout stocks newsletter. told me about this one. might be smaller than the big dog networking space cisco and to a lesser extent juniper as it has market capitalization of just under $4 billion. but it this company is a pure play on market security, one that's managed to become the market leader in its niche. make no mistake, unified threat management is a terrific niche to have. it's the fastest-growing segment within the entire network security space. it should be a $3.2 billion business by 2014. and fortinet controls 17% of the market. the market share is growing even though you've probably never heard of them and they are quite simply the best at what they do. why do you i feel that way? how about this? 8 of the top 10 fortune companies use fortinette. 9 out of the top 10 in europe. every single one of the top 10 telecommunications companies. 9 of the top 10 banking companies. and these are the firms that really need to protect their networks. however, there is one problem with cybersecurity likes fortinet, and it's kind of a big one. i'm not the first guy to recognize this. they've had a truly massive run. fortinet is up an astounding 208% since it went back in november 2009. and they almost always seem way too hot to touch. you look at for theinet selling for 43 times next year's earnings, 21% growth rate, and you just want to take a page from stock sage snoop dogg and, yes indeed, drop it like it's hot. my rule of thumb is you that typically don't want to buy own the best growth stocks when they're selling for more than two times growth. and that's exactly unfortunately where fortinet is right now. but when the economy's doing okay you almost never get a chance to buy these cyber security stocks at aprice that seems cheap. you have to wait for a marketwide pullback, like the kind we're witnessing right now, and use that to buy some at a mild discount because that's the best value you're ever growing to get with this one. we know fortinet's in fantastic shape. why? because the company just reported on tuesday of last week. and they knocked it out of the park! it was a, quite simply, beautiful quarter. it caused the stock to spike nearly 10% the next day. fortinet beat on revenues, beat on earnings, and the company raised its revenue growth forecast for 2012. more importantly, looking forward, fortinet's billings came in at much better than expected. 27% year over year. up 19% from the previous quarter. the firm revenue, an important metric, up 17%. these are all metrics that tell us how the future's looking. and the future's looking pretty fantastic. oh, so you say how about europe? europe didn't hurt fortinet at all. europe, the middle east, and asia, so-called emea, were areas of strength up 22 perts. best of all the company keeps taking share from cisco, juniper, checkpoint. fortinet's eating their lunch. and i actually think it would make a ton of sense as a takeover target for a company like cisco, giving them more exposure to the fastest-growing part of the network security business. here's the bottom line. yes, fortinet's expensive, but i think the speculative cyber security play makes a tochb sense on any pullback, like the one that began today. because its prospects are terrific. especially ahead of this legislation being introduced in the senate next week that i'm sure will have everyone atwitter about ftnt. after the break i'll try to make you even more money. >> coming up, battle of the beds. cramer rarely gets shuteye. but tonight by request he's finding out which mattress maker could help you build the portfolio of your dreams and wake up with mad money. all coming up on "mad money." i love that my daughter's part fish. but when she got asthma, all i could do was worry ! specialists, lots of doctors, lots of advice... and my hands were full. i couldn't sort through it all. with unitedhealthcare, it's different. we have access to great specialists, and our pediatrician gets all the information. everyone works as a team. and i only need to talk to one person about her care. we're more than 78,000 people looking out for 70 million americans. that's health in numbers. unitedhealthcare. ♪ rock-a-bye baby ♪ on the treetop ♪ when the wind blows the cradle ♪ oh. hey. every day this week i've been taking your requests, answering the questions that home gamers like you have e-mailed and tweeted in an effort to prove once and for all that "mad money" is still the most interactive show on television. it's part of my ongoing vendetta against "american idol." and you can see your tweets gliding by in the cnbc twicker -- whatever. anyway, next up, we got

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