plus rumbling that a budget deal could actually happen on capitol hill, possibly as early as tonight. so let's get right to the press box. nbc's katy tur is with the trump campaign in new hampshire. nbc's andrea mitchell has more on the dust-up between clinton and sanders. and julie bike wits of the associated press has details from the closed door meetings in houston where the bush family is hoping to give jeb a jump-start. we start with the republican nomination fight. less than a hundred days away from iowa now. new polling shows donald trump is slipping in that crucial leadoff caucus state. and ben carson is surging. a new loras college poll out just today finds carson in first place with a double-digit lead over trump. 12 points in that one. in addition to a new monmouth poll that has carson up over trump by 14 points. in fact, there are now four recent polls in that state that have trump sliding and carson pulling into a commanding lead. and perhaps feeling the heat now, trump heads to the hawkeye state tomorrow. but today, he was in new hampshire, that's where a "today" show town hall found trump trying to dispute those iowa numbers. >> i don't believe i did fall behind. it was one poll and a second poll. small polls. i was in iowa three days ago. we had a town hall that was unbelievable. it was packed. the des moines register is a terrible paper, as far as i'm concerned. no, it is. very liberal paper, by the way. and i have other polls in iowa that say i am winning. >> nbc's katy tur is on the trump beat and joins us now from atkins atkinson, new hampshire. katy, it was two polls when he said that this morning. now it's four polls. we're looking at double-digit deficits. this is the first time since donald trump started to surge in the middle of the summer. we've talked about he might be slumping or stalling, this is the first time he's clearly fallen behind somewhere. what is the sense behind the scenes of the trump campaign? do they have a strategy to deal with this? >> the trump campaign is never going to admit that there's anything wrong. they're never going to tell us that we're going to try and rejigger our campaign to make these adjustments in order to get more support in iowa. they have said maybe they should go to iowa more, but they'll never admit weakness. i think you can tell there is worry behind the scenes, though, because they have been trying to influence people, telling us to cite their other polls where he's doing so well and not being very happy about us citing the polls where he's not doing well. but the trump campaign is not going to ever admit that publicly. i will say, though, that other than iowa, donald trump is, in fact, doing well in new hampshire, doing well in south carolina, doing well in florida. doing well nationally. there was an associated press poll that had 7 in 10 republican leaning voters saying that if he wins the nomination, they think he can win the general election. so this is just iowa specific at the moment and i don't think it's any surprise that it's iowa specific since iowa is a much more conservative state and there was always thought at some point carson or ted cruz or marco rubio might start to surge there instead of donald trump. >> thank you, katy tur. a beautiful fall day in atkinson, new hampshire. thank you for joining us. turning now to the democrats, hillary clinton celebrated her birthday today by releasing a new tv ad in key primary states. >> do you think when you're president you'll be paid as much as if it were a male? [ cheers and applause ] >> this is one of the jobs where they have to pay you the same. >> and one of clinton's birthday gif gifts was an endorsement from tom carper, he is now ready to back her with joe biden now officially out of the mix. but senator bernie sanders did not give clinton a pass on her birthday. he touted his record on trade policy, taking subtle jabs on the pacific trade deal and also on president clinton's nafta deal. >> do you think you're able to make the tough political decisions that she can't? >> i do. and i'll tell you why. when i was elected to the congress in 1990, i had to deal with trade issues. and you had all of corporate america, and in fact the clinton administration, all these trade agreements are great. i said no to them, and it turns out that i was right. >> the comments follow a weekend where sanders didn't pull any punches at a major gathering of the democratic faithful in iowa, a gathering that featured all of the democratic candidates. >> i listen carefully to what bush and cheney and rumsfeld had to say, and i said no, they're not telling the truth. and i was right. i came to that fork in the road and i took the right road, even though it was not popular at the time. >> let's bring in andrea mitchell who is covering the clinton campaign, and also the host of andrea mitchell reports, weekdays at noon. it's interesting to listen to bernie sanders now, by his standards, he brags he's never run a negative political ad in his life. by his standards, the rhetoric now is highly negative. he's talking about the iraq war, which he voted against and hillary clinton voted for. but by normal political campaign standards, this is still pretty tame. he's not calling her out by name, not crossing certain lines. is he going to have to now that clinton's regained so much momentum in the race? >> he's being so much tougher and confrontational about her record than he had been before. his advisers told him, he's got to step it up after that debate, when it was widely viewed he was not confrontational enough and actually gave her a life line on the e-mails. so this is a new bernie sanders and the iowa platform was a very important comparison. tom harkin, who supports hillary clinton was quoted in "the new york times" was saying that bernie sanders has more passion among his supporters. and while she's ahead in the polls now in iowa, he's got the kind of enthusiasm that often counts on caucus night. she's running scared in iowa after what happened last time. she came in third. so she pulled out all the stops. katy perry, bill clinton in his first public campaign appearance for her on saturday night. but bernie sanders did have some points to make, particularly on doma. because of rachel maddow's interview on doma when hillary clinton said to rachel, that the reason why bill clinton supported the defense of marriage act was a defense against an even worse contingency which was the possibility, the likelihood, according to hillary clinton's retelling of history, that there would have been a constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage. so he took a least worst option and in 1996, supported the defense of marriage act. well, that, bernie sanders argued is not true. and it's been pointed out by a number of fact checkers today and yesterday. hillary rosen, who was there then, tweeted to her friends, bill and hillary, saying that's not what happened, i was there. don't continue saying this. bottom line is, that it was politically advantageous. he was running for re-election. bob dole was in favor of the defense of marriage act, and like several other of the issues that were supported then, you know, by morris, who was helping him in his re-election campaign. he went for it and offended a lot of his liberal supporters and this was just one other instance. >> it's interesting, a lot of things from the '90s, whether it was the crime bill, doma, a lot of that coming up 20 years later. >> welfare. >> welfare being an issue in the 2016 race. interesting to see where bernie sanders goes from here, though. again, after such a good week for hillary clinton. andr andrea, thank you. tonight, senator bernie sanders will be interviewed by rachel maddow, 9:00 eastern time. former presidents george w. and george h.w. bush are trying to res sussitate jeb bush's presidential campaign. long time bush family supporters are worried about disappointing poll numbers and underwhelming debate performances. jeb bush has lost the lean and mean optimism he used on friday to explain the cuts to his campaign staff. >> the whisper campaign has already started that bush is falling apart. >> blah, blah, blah blah. that's my answer. you look at the race. october is not when you elect people. it's february. >> president george w. bush told supporters today that jeb's competitive edge will win him the nomination. but "the new york times" reports that even bush 91 is openly irritated by the front-runner. jeb bush's performance during wednesday's republican debate could likely serve as a critical turning point for his ailing campaign. joining me live from houston, texas, now is julie bikeo wits, national political reporter for the associated press. a lot of donors who put up a lot of money, have watched as the bush super pac have put a lot of money into the earl states and if you look at the polls, they have gotten nothing for their investment. with what they've heard in the last two days from jeb, from his brother, from the campaign brass, are they leaving this event reassured, or are they just as nervous as when they came in? >> well, what we're hearing so far from donors is that they are sticking with him. it's definitely reality check time for these top donors. these are some of the most faithful bush donors. they've given to 41, they've given to 43. they're definitely backing jeb all the way. but they have to be looking at these poll numbers the way that we are and saying, what's going on, scratching their heads. they're eager for the super pac which raised more than $100 million in just the first half of the year, to start spending in a huge way. they're eager to see his poll numbers jump up even a little bit in some of these early states. so i would say this event, which would conceived months ago as a celebration of bush's top donors, a chance for them to hobnob with two former presidents and what they hope will be a third bush president, has transformed into reality check time and time to sort of buckle down and talk strategy that can actually move numbers. >> yes, in terms of strategy to moves numbers, are they walking away with anything solid here, in terms of, hey, we're the bush campaign and this is what we're going to do to get from 5% to 20% in iowa, anything solid like that? >> what we're hearing is that they've really, in their minds, narrowed down the race to just two people. bush and marco rubio. it's as if the front-runners that you discussed earlier, don't exist. donald trump, ben carson, these bush doanars are absolutely confident those two will fade away, that voters will not put someone in the white house or nominate someone with no experience whatsoever. so they see this as their chance to really look forward and pitch bush and his experience as a sharp contrast to senator marco rubio, who's a first-term senator. there's a lot of comparisons between rubio and president barack obama who of course also was a first-term senator, and we're hearing these bush donors and strategists start openly comparing bush and rubio's records as if they're looking ahead to a time when trump and carson and other candidates in the race have faded away, leaving only those two men behind. >> all right, the bush campaign taking the long view on this one. again, about a hundred days now from the iowa caucuses. julie, thank you. and coming up, ben carson on what he would do as president, from the budget battle, to his serious strategy. parts of chuck's interview that you didn't see on sunday. that's just ahead. plus, is speaker boehner finding a budget breakthrough that could help paul ryan's path ahead? might get news of a deal tonight. stick around. things. like limiting where you earn bonus cash back. why put up with that? but the quicksilver card from capital one likes to keep it simple. real simple. i'm talking easy like-a- walk-in-the-park, nothing-to-worry-about, man-that-feels-good simple. quicksilver earns you unlimited 1.5% cash back on every purchase, everywhere. it's a simple question. what's in your wallet? >> hundreds are dead and thousands more are injured after a massive earthquake struck south asia. the 7.5 quake flattened buildings across pakistan and in the northeast region of afghanistan at about 2:00 local time. shock waves could be felt as far away as india. nbc producer waj khan has more from pakistan where he felt the quake. >> at least 200 dead in pakistan, with a thousand confirmed injuries. at least 70 confirmed dead in afghanistan with 300 injuries. aftershocks are still happening in islama bad. people are sleeping outside, scared. it's an old city with old houses. my own house has partially lost one of its boundary walls. but the government is sending out advisories, urging people to stay calm. and also being very resilient. the prime minister was in london and heading back to pakistan. pakistan pakistanis have been offered aid from their own indian rivals, but have said they'll deal with the catastrophe on their own so far. that's the latest from slama bad. this is waj khan for nbc news. thank you. doctors without borders and other relief organizations are heading to the area in an effort to assist with the disaster. we'll be right back. as ben carson surges to the front of the pack in iowa, chuck caught up with the candidate this weekend for "meet the press," but you didn't get to see all of it on sunday. like what carson had to say about using the government to monitor bias on college campuses, or how even though carson loves his status as a political outsider he has a more conventional view on paying the nation's bill. here's what you didn't see yet on tv from chuck's interview. >> you said the other day that on day one, when it came to the debt, that you wouldn't sign any budget that added to the debt. >> correct. >> can you really do that on year one? we have a half trillion dollar deficit right now in this year and this is one of the better years. >> when it comes to paying off our debts, i think the wall is going to be in november. when i take over, it's going to be january. so there's going to be time to look at those 645 government agencies and all the other places where we can save money and not get to next november when our backs are up against the wall, when somebody's got a gun to your head and saying, you gotta raise it or we're going to default. >> do you think house republicans should go ahead and raise the debt ceiling right now? >> i would do that rather than default, because their backs are against the wall. but i would do it with stipulation that we have to make cuts and i would define those cuts now. and if the president decides that he cannot sign it because it has the cuts on it, it's on him. and i think they ought to broadcast that everywhere. >> you said something interesting earlier this week, that you would use the department of education to police bias on college campuses. >> i said extreme bias. there's a difference. >> okay, but that is -- some could interpret that, including some conservatives who are upset about that, if you give the department of education that power, as a conservative, they might be comfortable -- >> let me tell you how -- >> a liberal would -- >> this is not just spouting off. i've thought about this. the way that works is, you invite the students at the universities to send in their complaints. and then you investigate. for instance, there was a university and i'm sure you heard of a situation where the professor told everybody, take out a piece of paper and write the name jesus on it, put it on the floor and stomp on it. one student refused to do that and was disciplined severely. subsequently was reinstated. >> how is what you're advocating not a violation of the first amendment? >> it's not a violation of the first amendment, because all i'm saying is that taxpayer funding should not be used for propaganda. it shouldn't be. >> but your definition of propaganda could be somebody else's definition of free speech. >> that's why i said, we'll have the students send in, and we will investigation. and it goes in both directions. but there is just no way that our institutions of higher education should be used for indoctrination. institutions of higher education are for higher education. that means you have to be able to look at things from both sides. you have to be able to evaluate things in a very clear way, and if you're just always looking at things from one point of view, i don't think you're well educated. >> let me ask you a quick question on syria. assad versus isis. what is the -- what should be the priority? >> well, it's a big, global issue. assad has been there for a long time. his father was there for a long time. there are a lot of complex relationships there. and if you just sort of sweep him out of the way, there is no guarantee that that would be a victory for us. isis, we know, is part of the global jihad movement, and their goal is to destroy us and our way of life. so, i am concerned about both. but i am extraordinarily concerned about the global jihadists, wherever they are. >> would you work with the russians? >> i would certainly talk with the russians. i think open conversation is a good thing to do. but in no way would i capitulate to them. you know, putin has expansionist ideals. there's no question about that. and he's very ambitious. he says one thing and then he does another thing. when he came into syria, he said he was coming there to fight isis, but was he really? >> right. >> it's really al nusra, it was the anti-assad forces that he was there to fight. so we have to look at that. and i think we have to oppose him. we have to push back. because i believe that's just a beachhead for him. i believe he wants to extend his influence throughout the region. >> and you can head to the "meet the press" website for chuck's full interview with ben carson. up next, the who, what, when, where and why in today's headlines, including the surprising who that guatemala just elected to lead their country. and later, carson and trump trade barbs on the campaign trail, but is it friendly fire? we'll look at the history between these two candidates. that's ahead. 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