after 18 days, the wall street protests keep spreading. they're popping up in cities in california to maine. even in kansas city. we'll take you there. it's tuesday, october 4th, 2011. this is "the daily rundown." i'm chuck todd. my first reads of the morning, today could be the day we finally hear from team christie once and for all about whether he is going to mount a last minute bid for the republican presidential nomination. behind the scenes, he's apparently gotten all the aid input he wants, all the donor input he wants. yes, there's been those reports that he's asked prominent republicans to hold off endorsing any current candidates. but at this point it's in his hands. some people think we may hear from him this afternoon. we'll see. in a new "washington post" poll in "washington post"/abc, almost half of republicans, 42%, say they'd like to see christie mount a bid. the poll also confirms rick perry's quick rise has been matched by an equally dramatic decline in the last month. the main beneficiary, not mitt romney but herman cain. in the poll mitt romney is stuck at 25%. pretty much the same number he's had for a year. perry and cain are now tied for second sitting at 16%. ron paul the is only other republican to crack double digits. perry has lost almost half of his support in the last month, down 13 points from a poll they conducted in early september. where did those numbers go? herman cain is up 12 points. polling at just 4% a month ago. herman cain has an opportunity. but is he running a serious campaign to win the nomination or to just get some attention? nbc political analyst charlie cook weighed in on what cain might be up to. >> the senate might say you're raising your profile and selling books for down the road and speaking fees. but i think for a lot of these guys, this is more about having a platform to talk about issues that are really important to them. >> as we told you yesterday, cain's headed on a book tour. he's spending, for instance, in the next week, half of his stops are in states that don't hold presidential primaries until after march 1st. a lot of free media. it's been working. that's why some of his aides are saying why stop now? meanwhile, remember a flavor of the month a couple months ago by the name of michele bachmann? a bunch of top aides are now quitting the campaign, raising some serious questions at her viability and the resources she has to mount a more serious white house bid. the campaign confirms to nbc monday that a pollster ed goaz will leave. andy perish is returning to bamman's congressional office where he was chief of staff. they said in a statement, given the changing caucus and primary schedule we will not be utilizing full time polling consultants and will concentrate heavily on retail politics in iowa. translation. we're not paying for anymore popo polls. we don't have the money to do that. ed goaz, if you have clients elsewhere where you can make some money go elsewhere and make that money. finally, we have a coin flip race in west virginia. republicans in the last week have played the obama card in the governor's race. running ads tying the incumbent, democratic earl ray tomblin to the president. apparently it's working. if republican bill maloney wins tonight it will be further evidence obama is simply toxic in red states. you'll see democrats start running for the hills. look, this is west virginia. they've been spending all sorts of money. buying tv time in washington, d.c. they've been saturating all the markets in west virginia. this was their strategy all along. they felt they'd do it at the last minute. the democrat here, this is not one of those cases of martha coakley or david weappburn. he's had the endorsements of labor, chamber of commerce. they've won a very early voting campaign. in fact, their campaign says they're ahead on the early vote. so a loss here only sits in one person's hands. and it's president obama. polls close in west virginia at 7:30 tonight. president obama has had a tough time selling his political achievements to a very frustrated elect rat. he's trying to sell his political vision instead. >> when you tick down which approach the american people generally prefer, they'll say mine. now, what they'll say is, he hasn't been able to get it through congress. you know, i'm the first one to acknowledge that the relations between myself and the republican congress have not been good over the last several months, but it's not for a lack of effort. >> missouri democratic congressman emanuel cleaver is the chair of the congressional black caucus. he's also a congressman from the state of missouri where president obama is going to be stopping by, although it's the other side of the state. he's going to be hitting st. louis for some fundraisers there. may i ask you to respond to the respond there and the tone that he has taken with congress? when you look at his positions that he's trying to sell on this jobs bill, even on deficit reduction, he's got public opinion on his side. so then why can't he harness that public opinion and get it done on capitol hill? >> well, i think the public is angry because of the economy. i think it's going to be necessary for the public to weigh in on this, to make it simply palatable for the republicans not to support it. if the public really begins to push this, republicans are going to be very, very hesitant to stand up and say no to their constituents. the public is behind the president. the atmosphere right now is not conducive to the president getting the public to speak out. if that happens, i think you're going to see that legislation brought to the floor. >> now, it's interesting what you just said. you said the atmosphere is not conducive for the public to speak out. why do you think that is? >> well, for a couple of reasons. number one, people are scared. they look at what's going on in europe, in greece. they look at the trade imbalance. they look at unemployment in their own country. they look at the -- the wall street protest. things don't seem at all settled. none of those things are the president's fault. but when you're in that office, people tend to throw that kind of thing on you. so while they embrace the president's policy position, i think it's just like i just don't want to say anything. i'm not that concerned. i bet if you check, the mail and the phone calls are down. it's counterintuitive that at a time like this the public would back out, but they do. >> it sounds like you're describing a case where you feel like the public simply just lost faith in washington altogether. how do you govern under circumstances like this? >> well, the public has lost faith in washington. i think the approval rate of the -- of congress is 9%. i think that's extremely high considering how congress conducts itself. and i don't know whether we can fix this until the voters decide to fix it. you know, keep in mind that the house of representatives is the only office that you have to be elected to. so nobody got here through a coup d'etat. people are not willing to compromise. >> do you think the white house should take a different tact with congressional republicans? i know everybody's got an opinion. has he been too soft on them? has he tried to compromise too much? not enough? where do you stand on this? >> well, lately the president has been very tough. the last two or three speeches he's given, i think the base stood up and said, that's the way we want the president to conduct himself. and i think, frank li, the country wants to see that. i think the country wants to see the president tough and convinced that the positions he's taking are right and the public will respond. so of late, i don't think anybody can criticize -- well, that's not true. people will criticize. but i don't think it would be legitimate. >> let me ask you this. there's this governor's race in west virginia tonight. democrat has been favored all along. the republicans at the last minute are using the president to try to pull and upset here. they pull the upset, you know -- you know how members of congress can react. how concerned are you that that makes it even that much harder for the president to unite democrats behind him to sell this with the senate? >> it won't be a good thing for sure. but i think that it'll be two weeks of speculation in the news and then i think the congress will go back to its blocking of everything going on. at least the republicans will. but i would suggest that the president -- that that's not going to happen. i think the democrat is going to win in west virginia. and i hope that with every win, with democrats, that we become more and more energized. that's what we've got to have in the party right now. we've got to have energy. energy enough to knock on doors and to get independents over to our side. >> are you disappointed the president's not doing a big public event in missouri today, just stopping by to get money? >> you know, getting money is very important. i don't think that the president -- there was any intentionality to avoid the public. it was more, you know, i'm going to missouri for a fundraiser. and, frankly, i'm glad he came into the state. his poll numbers are not that good. but they're in the 40s. i think as long as they're in the 40s, missouri's in play. keep in mind that mccain barely won. it was a photo finish in 2008. >> all right. >> so we have a chance to reverse it, i think. i'm glad the president's there. >> congressman emanuel cleaver, chairman of the congressional black caucus, thanks for coming down. next, we're serving up some "daily rundown" trail mix. jonathan martin, chris cillizza, coming up. herman cain is picking up steam. rick perry's problems pile up. the primary calendar is creeping up earlier and earlier. take me home, country road. voters who will decide where west virginia belongs today. red or blue. the results could shake up things here on capitol hill. first, a look ahead at the president's schedule in what's in "the daily rundown" on msnbc. he travels to dallas for a speech talking about the threat of over 200,000 laid off teachers if this jobs bill doesn't pass. we'll be right back. let me tell you about a very important phone call i made. when i got my medicare card, i realized i needed an aarp... medicare supplement insurance card, too. medicare is one of the great things about turning 65, but it doesn't cover everything. in fact, it only pays up to 80% of your part b expenses. if you're already on or eligible for medicare, call now to find out how an aarp... medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company, helps cover some of the medical expenses... not paid by medicare part b. that can save you up to thousands of dollars. these are the only medicare supplement insurance plans... exclusively endorsed by aarp. when you call now, you'll get this free information kit... and guide to understanding medicare, i can keep my own doctor and choose my own hospital. and i don't need a referral to see a specialist. as with all medicare supplement plans, and help pay for what medicare doesn't. call this toll-free number now... it's called blowing smoke. and if you don't have a really good sense of self, you can become overwhelmed by that smoke. and you could wind up, as the smoke gets thicker and thicker, losing your way. losing that inner compass. >> hmm. was that advice he was giving? was chris christie doing some soul searching there? searching around as he considers a run for the white house? the new jersey governor is known for making slow, deliberate decisions. in this case time's not on his side. let's bring in jonathan martin, senior political reporter at politico and chris cillizza, managing editor of postpolitics.com. he was talking about -- >> it was generic. it didn't have anything to do with him. >> blowing smoke. >> i have a friend who -- >> do you like like me or just like me? >> what's fascinating, all of a sudden he has shut down the leaks. >> they've gone quiet. which tells me there is a decision looming either today or tomorrow. what i've been told is that -- this is not news, even. i think i'll be understanding we'll have some word before wednesday. of course, tomorrow's wednesday. >> right. >> i think basically what we're all finding is they've shut it down. which makes sense. to jonathan's point, i think we're near a decision. i think what everyone's waiting on is for him to come to his people and say i want to do this or not. i think the case has been made to him. here's what would be good. here's what would be potentially bad. he needs to say, okay, understanding what i understand, i'm in or i'm out. i think that's what everyone's waiting on. i'm not even sure -- you know, i don't know that the people who we're talking to know. i think he still hasn't decided. >> that was one thing. hey, this is now in his hands. >> this is his life. he needs to decide. does he want to do this or not? >> everyone before the reagan library, they were giving off no, no, no. he's going to shut it down. he didn't because he didn't want to shut it down. >> it's him in the spotlight. >> all right. let's move on to your fabulous poll out today. >> oh, yeah. >> second best poll you can find out there. >> agree to disagree. >> there you go. it's actually showing the same -- in many ways it's deja vu all over again, jonathan martin, in this respect. number one, romney is sitting at about 20 -- 25%? >> that's right. >> it's basically the number he's been at for a year. and we're on our fourth flavor of the month. >> right. >> we started with the donald trump surge. then we have the michele bachmann surge. rick perry surge. now herman cain. all of the perry sport didn't go to romney, it went to mccain. >> is he a place holder though for that support? if romney does get the nomination, the postmortem will be written as thus. the conservatives can never settle on one candidate. they split among three or four candidates over a period of months. look, if they can't settle around somebody, they being the conservatives, then romney is going to take this thing. i don't know who the most serious contender is now. it probably is still perry. obviously he's got to overcome these stumbles. >> what happens if christie doesn't run? herman cain in my opinion does not have top ration. his communications director, he has no pollster, no consultants. some people say it's a good thing. >> i was going to say. in this kind of year. >> the question is does he have scale blt. >> he's not campaigning. >> it's the newt gingrich strategy. >> he's going on tv selling a book and going to places like kansas city. he's not actually running a campaign to win. >> the question is if christie does not run, is there a deciding period among conservatives where they say, look, herman cain is not going to be the nominee. michele bachmann is not going to be the nominee. we don't know perry is going to be the nominee. let's at least in sum get behind romney. does that happen or not? >> can we lift up at 30,000 feet and say what is herman cain representing that he is becoming -- people want to say he's a place holder. he's the nonpolitician in the race. he seems to be the one that will be the most blunt speaking of the crowd. but with an optimistic tone about him. not with a negative tone about him. and he has some business experience. so, you know, that seems to be the model of what some republican voters would like to have. they just don't quite think romney has it. >> we had a similar moment back in april. first of may. he lost it. because he then said extreme stuff because he's obviously running for the first time in his life for the presidency. that's not an easy thing. so can cain stay on message here? to me, chuck, the important thing to watch in the next two weeks is this. what's perry's money report look like and how does he perform next week at the dartmouth debate. >> a debate he has yet to confirm. is that correct, chris cillizza? >> i believe. it is our debate. i believe he has confirmed. but i don't know that for sure. but i believe he has told us he's going to be there. that is my understanding. but not confirm confirmed. >> if he can find his footing at this next debate, i think perry's back in the game. >> is he bruce willis or not? meaning "sixth sense." we look back at this thing. on the one hand it's amazing how quickly he's gone away and people are just -- >> remarkable rise. >> you say to yourself, did we see this again? jonathan brought up a good point. $18 million, you can grind it out. >> he's going to be the only guy if christie doesn't get in, he's going to be the only guy other than romney who has the grind it out potential. herman cain is just not going to have the grind it out potential, bachmann, none of these other candidates are. i still think we probably wrote the rick perry is the nominee, we may be writing the rick perry political obituary too soon. can rick perry afford -- i'll open up to you guys. can rick perry afford to skip our debate given the performance in the last debates? i don't think he can. >> the president feels he has no footing here politically. a number like that is sort of losing faith in his abilities. >> why didn't he answer the question yesterday about is the country better off now? >> what's he supposed to say? >> one thing i notice in the poll, chuck, i think it's important. look at the erosion in strongly support. that's usually a base test that's gone from 30% to 18%. >> one last fast point on perry. don't forget. if he stocks 40 million in that, he can go beyond january next year. >> money solves a lot of problems in politics. >> this is how he's run elections before. he grinds it out. jonathan martin, chris cillizza, we could go all day. but they're playing the music. >> "thelma and louise," let's keep going! >> pedal on the gas. new term oil, european markets spooking america this morning. deja vu all over again. also, haunting wall street. protests against government corruption, social inequality. the campaign is turning into a nationwide movement. we should be paying more attention to it. if it's tuesday, the west virginia governor's race has become all about a guy who's not on the ballot. president obama. first, today's trivia question, jonathan martin. which president was administered the oath of office by his father? give me the answer. the first correct answer will get a follow tuesday from us. i got it wrong. for fastidious ln emily skinner, each day was fueled by thorough preparation for events to come. well somewhere along the way, emily went right on living. but you see, with the help of her raymond james financial advisor, she had planned for every eventuality. ...which meant she continued to have the means to live on... ...even at the ripe old age of 187. life well planned. see what a raymond james advisor can do for you. so on wall street, monday's big losses will likely exend into today as tier fears about greece and european debt continue to hover over the market. between europe and these domestic protests that started on wall street, spreading around the country, what's the impact of those also on the markets today? >> chuck, i'm the bearer of bad news as it seems like i always am these mornings. looks like we're going to open lower in part because of news out of europe specifically around greece. there was this idea that the eu was going to be giving over $8 billion to greece which they need by november 1st. today it looks likely that that will be delayed. does greece go bankrupt? that, of course, is the big question hanging over everything. on the issue you were talking about domestically, i spent yesterday down at those protests. i'm not sure they're weighing on the markets. but they're definitely weighing on the minlds of ceos i've talked to just worried abo