city of new orleans. "today," tuesday, august 31st, 2010. captions paid for by nbc-universal television and good morning. welcome to "today" on a tuesday morning. i'm matt lauer. >> and i'm ann can curry in for meredith. good morning, everybody. and right now hurricane earl is packing winds in excess of 135 miles per hour. it's heading, as matt mentioned, into the open atlantic ocean after moving through parts of the caribbean. >> for those of us who live here along the east coast of the united states, this could turn out to be a pretty rough week, maybe even a tough labor day weekend. take a look at the trajectory. earl is expected to either hit or skirt nearly the entire east coast. >> and forecasters are warning coastal residents from north carolina all the way up to maine to keep a very close eye on this storm. >> we're going to get to al's forecast in a moment. let's begin with the weather channel's stephanie abrams who is in cape hatteras, north carolina, where it appears to be the calm before the storm. stephanie, good morning. >> reporter: good morning to you, matt. here in the outer banks we have two full days to prepare for hurricane earl. unfortunately, the storm developed quickly in the caribbean acquiring the lowest pressure since hurricane ike back in 2008. remember, the lower the pressure, the stronger the storm. the first signs of hurricane earl came crashing into puerto rico monday. with winds of more than 120 miles per hour and rain that wouldn't let up. people rushed to board up homes and businesses preparing for the worst. it was too late for the owner of this building nearly pushed into the surf. many tried to escape the storm but the governor of puerto rico is asking people to stay home. in the u.s. virgin islands powerful winds threw debris on roadways and tossed boats around in high surf. now residents are bracing for earl off the coast of the carolinas. the storm could affect people all the way up to new england as it makes its way towards the east coast. now, matt, airports are still closed in puerto rico, st. croix, st. thomas, also st. martin and cruise ships are having to change their courses as well. >> all right. stephanie abrams down in cape hatteras for us this morning. stephanie, thanks very much. let's head upstairs where al is tracking the storm for us. good morning, al. this is a powerful storm, a category 4. 150 miles north-northeast of san juan. 135-mile-per-hour winds. it's still moving at a pretty good clip west-northwest at 13 miles per hour. the watches and warnings of this system, we have tropical storm watches for the bahamas. tropical storm warnings for the caicos and turks as earl moves aw away. the path of the storm comes up along the coast and sometime early thursday on into friday morning it comes along the carolina coast. could actually make landfall along there. we're watching this. and may even affect all the way from the carolinas on up into new england. if that's not enough, we have fiona to talk about, a much weaker storm, a tropical storm, 590 miles east of the leeward islands. the path of this system a little bit slower, but it is moving pretty quickly, 23 miles an hour. sometime early saturday it is somewhere between the u.s., southeastern coast, and bermuda. so we'll have to watch this one as well. but we've got at least another week of storms to deal with with and another system right behind that. matt? just trying to keep you busy. we'll get the rest of your forecast in a couple of minutes. let's turn to iraq now. tonight president obama will speak to the nation from the oval office to announce the end of combat operations there. but there are two words you will not be hearing, mission accomplished. nbc's savannah guthrie is at the white house with a preview. savannah, good morning to you. >> reporter: good morning, matt. not mission accomplished but this is a white house anxious to emphasize what it considers a campaign promise fulfilled in iraq but there are still 50,000 u.s. troops there today and the country's political future is far from clear. the vice president in iraq to mark the official end of america's combat mission there. while the president prepares to address the nation. >> good evening. >> reporter: in an oval office address tonight, a book end to a war that began more than seven years ago. >> on my orders, coalition forces have begun striking selected targets. >> reporter: aides say he will not declare mission accomplished, a moment former president bush never lived down. >> you won't hear those words coming from us. it marks a milestone that we have achieved in moving our combat troops out. that is not to say violence is going to end tomorrow. >> reporter: in fact, violence has surged in iraq in the weeks before the formal end of combat missions and the iraqis have yet to form a permanent government. >> until we have a stable political system to which the security forces can report, then iraq is on the edge of a precipice. >> reporter: the president will call former president bush personally today. but the white house sidestepped the question of whether he will mention bush by name in the oval office address or acknowledge the success of bush's iraq surge. preemptively on the attack, sarah palin tweeted tuesday obama iraq speech, poor leadership. if this fierce opponent of the surge can't give credit where credit's due. credit due g.w., mccain, troops. monday the president was using battle terms to describe another ongoing struggle, the economy. with more grim unemployment news expected this week, the president slammed republicans for holding up his $30 billion plan to help small businesses. >> simply put, holding this bill hostage is directly detrimental to our economic growth. >> reporter: aides acknowledge that modest bill alone can't turn the economy around and the white house is not suggesting a second stimulus. >> i think his options are few and fewer. >> reporter: well, senior aides say the most recent draft of the president's speech tonight did mention former president george w. bush by name. this is a speech that will not only deal with iraq, thank troops for their sacrifice, but also talk about the future in afghanistan and the need for this country to nation build at home. matt? >> savannah guthrie, thank you very much. robert gibbs is the white house press secretary. robert, good to see you. good morning. >> good morning, matt. how are you? >> i'm fine. thanks very much. you said at the white house monday the president will not use those infamous words "mission accomplished" when he talks to the american people tonight. how specifically will he describe the current mission in iraq with the troops remaining there? how will he describe it to the american people? >> well, look, i think the president will talk about three different themes. that is ending our combat mission in iraq, strengthening our security internationally, and outlining some steps that we have to take to rebuild our nation here at home. what you'll hear the president discuss is that today marks the beginning of a transformation. our combat mission ends and our role in iraq is to assist and help the iraqis make the decisions they're going to make. they're in charge of their future. they will write their history from this point on. that is iraqi responsibility with the help of an ally in the united states of america. >> we have seen an increase in insurgent attacks in iraq over the last several weeks and some of those attacks are targeting the very forces we needed to grow before we could come to this, what you call a transition, the iraqi police. how comfortable or how worried is the president about the level of violence in iraq today? >> well, look, i think there's no doubt, matt, that those that are in iraq to foment violence will continue to do so that will not change today. what is important to understand is what general odierno told the president in the situation room a few weeks ago, and that is the level of violence is among the lowest that we've seen throughout our 7 1/2 years in iraq. the iraqi security forces for some time have been in the lead of providing security and the future of iraq will now be written by the iraqis. >> i know you don't like hypothetical questions, robert. nobody does. but if the level of violence increases to the point where it threatens the population of iraq on a daily basis and threatens the functioning of its government, would the president consider sending combat troops back into iraq? >> well, look, we have some forces there to continue to assist in counterterrorism but understand, matt, that hypothetical, as i said, was actually gone over with the president in the situation room and general ray odierno, our commander there, did not foresee or believe that would be necessary in iraq, that iraqi security forces were capable of dealing with the violence and providing security for the iraqis. >> you also mentioned at the white house the president would call president bush in advance of his speech. has the call taken place? >> i believe the call will take place a little bit late they are morning, likely when the president is on air force one flying to thank our troops at ft. bliss right outside of el paso, texas. i think probably both mmanders in chief share certainly one thing in common and that is thanking the men and women in uniform for the tremendous sacrifice they made over the past 7 1/2 years, the thousands that aren't coming back from iraq, the tens of thousands that have been wounded but those that keep us safe and secure. >> let me read you something. in january of 2007 when president bush announced the surge in iraq, then senator barack obama had this to say. quote, i am not persuaded that 20,000 additional troops in iraq are going to solve the sectarian violence there. in fact, i think it will do the reverse. so when president obama speaks to former president bush today, will he change his mind on that? will he give president bush credit for making that decision on the surge and admit that it contributed to the situation of more stability on the ground today? >> matt, what is certainly not up for question is that president obama, then candidate obama, said that adding those 20,000 troops into iraq would, indeed, improve the security situation, and it did. what was necessary for this moment to happen was a diplomatic surge, a change in the sunni awakening. rather than fighting with al qaeda they fought against al qaeda. i think a number of things, most importantly our men and women in uniform, brought us to this point. >> right. >> i think there's no doubt the surge improved the security situation. but as this president said many times, the war in iraq was not going to be fought or won primarily or just militarily, that we had to see some political accommodation and we had to see sectarian violence reduced because sunni, shia and kurds decided to live together and chart iraq's future together, not fighting each other. >> robert gibbs at the white house. robert, thank you so much. i appreciate it. >> matt, thanks for having me. >> robert gibbs, thank you very much. and you can watch special coverage of the president's oval office address tonight at 8:00 eastern right here on nbc. and now here's ann. matt, thanks. nbc's chief foreign correspondent richard engel has covered this war in iraq since it began and also as it ended. richard, good morning. >> good morning. >> keying off what mr. gibbs just said, what kind of iraq are we leaving its people to write their future with? >> well, right now i think iraq is in a very, very dangerous place. it's very possible they will have another round of civil war. in the end of his comments right there, he was talking about the political accord between sunni, shiites and kurds that helped to bring some security gains. that accord is calling apart right now. >> so how fragile on a scale of one to ten, ten being worst? >> nine. i think it's very fragile. if they don't get a government in the next couple of months, all of the gains from the surge could be wiped out. >> anything positive come from this war? >> come from this war? saddam hussein is gone and any iraqi will tell you that. saddam really was that bad. and every iraqi suffered in that. if you ask what happened since then and they will complain that the political structure that was created in their country by the united states has failed to deliver on the promises to the people. >> had the u.s. not invaded iraq, where would iraq be today? where would the geopolitical situation be today? >> if there had been no invasion saddam would still be in power. he was probably getting more moderate. he was being welcomed into the -- by a lot of european countries, welcomed in eastern europe in particular. he was heading in a direction of accommodation, the sanctions regime that was holding in place was starting to fail. so i think it would be somewhat of a basket case but it would be -- iran would be a lot more contained. it would be a dictatorship that was trying to break out of its box but iran would not be as dangerous. >> and had the united states not invaded iraq, would we be done in afghanistan? >> probably. that was a giant distraction of resources, of intelligence assets. that would probably be over. >> richard engel with perspective that's very valuable on this war and many other stories. thank you so much this morning. it is now 7:14. once again here's matt. >> ann, thank you very much. if you're sitting down for breakfast this morning, you might want to hear a little more about that massive egg recall. two reports from the fda reveal some very disturbing new information about the farms at the center of the investigation in this recall. nbc's kelly o'donnell has the latest from washington. kelly, good morning to you. >> reporter: good morning, matt. that new information gives us a picture of farm conditions that led to the recall of more than 500 million eggs. now because it's breakfast time, it's tough to talk about and i won't give you all the detail which is, frankly, gross. one consumer group calls this stomach churning. investigators went inside two giant iowa egg producers visiting several hen houses this month. the farms, no longer shipping eggs to stores, are connected to an outbreak of illness. nearly 1,500 reported cases of salmonella. the new fda reports list filth and dilapidated conditions. some examples of many violations seen -- rodents, frogs, insects, and wild birds were observed inside facilities. escaped, uncaged chickens were near the egg laying operation. employees did not wear or change protective clothing. structural damage to buildings. holes that allowed access to insects and rodents. especially unpleasant, manure pits as high as eight feet tall. and tests showed that water used to wash eggs tested positive for salmonella. bottom line, company executives were told you failed to follow your plan for disease prevention. >> if we can put in place the kinds of preventive standards and approaches that we have been developing and are committed to, then we can reduce the burden of food safety across the nation. >> reporter: what's the fda doing? tougher new rules went into effect in july, and the agency is about to begin a 15-month inspection of the big farms responsible for about 80% of the country's eggs. now because these are initial reports, the companies do get a chance to make a specific response during this recall, wright county farms and hillandale said they are taking steps to fix things and to try to restore consumer trust. now congress, which is, of course, still back home, is getting involved, already calling for a hearing, a house investigative panel wants to look at food safety and the conditions at these farms. ann? >> i'll take it, kelly, thank you very much. kelly o'donnell in washington with more on this egg recall. and now a check of the rest of the morning's stories with lester holt over at the news desk. we hope your news is much more palatable than we heard. good morning, everyone. we have a developing story this morning. dutch police are questioning two men who flew to amsterdam from chicago after authorities found what they're calling suspicious items in one of their suitcases. nbc's justice correspondent pete williams has the latest from washington. pete, good morning. >> reporter: u.s. officials are trying to figure out whether the odd contents of a suitcase were part of an attempt to test airline security or just a strange way of pack iing for an overseas flight. what airport screeners found inside were watches and cell phones taped together, one phone was taped to a bottle of pepto-bismol. officials say none of it was harmful. no explosives were found. authorities say it was in the suitcase of a detroit man, ahmed mohamed nasser al soofi, and was discovered when he began his journey in birmingham, alabama. he was allowed to go on but his suitcase was taken off the plane when it was found to have been routed on a different flight. u.s. security officials notified the dutch of the incident and police there decided on their own to take the men into custody for questioning. u.s. officials say the second man may simply have been sitting next to al soofi on the plane. investigators say they found nothing suspicious in al soofi's background and they're trying to figure out what this was all about, lester. >> pete williams, thank you. the u.s. military says four more american soldiers were killed today by a roadside bomb in afghanistan. that brings the total number of u.s. military deaths to 18 in four days. former star pitcher roger clemens is set to stand trial in april after pleading not guilty to lying to congress about using steroids. gas prices are down about 6 cents from a month ago to an average of $2.68 for a gallon of regular according to aaa. world markets sank with japan's nikkei tumbling more than 300 points. trish regan is at the new york stock exchange. what are you watching today? >> lots of economic data. this entire week we have tons of economic data. it's making investors a little bit jittery, i can tell you. on the one hand they know that corporate earnings have come in pretty strong but on the other hand they have this harsh reality of this data that keeps coming in worse than people are expecting. the biggie is friday with the all-important jobs report. we're expecting to see a slight uptick in the unemployment rate and additional jobs lost. >> trish regan, thank you. at the u.s. open monday, take a look at this incredible between the legs shot from roger federer with his back to the net at the baseline. believe it or not he made that same amazing shot last year. his opponent, what's he do? he shrugs and he says only he can do that. federer, by the way, went on to win. it is now 7:19. those are your headlines. back to matt and ann. >> they gave him a one-minute standing ovation after that shot. that's cool. >> all across americ >> things are pretty quiet here at home. we expect another hot date today. temperatures will soar into the mid 90's. lot of sunshine in the forecast and that's your latest weather. ann? >> al, thanks. nearly 100 years after an iceberg sent it to the bottom of the north atlantic, the "titanic" remains the topic of fascination all around the world. nbc's kerry sanders has been traveling with a scientific team giving us new images like we've never seen before. >> reporter: more than two miles down, the images are extraordinary. the "titanic" like she's never been seen before in 3-d hd. the captain's state room, his bathtub's porcelain still polished. windows on the promenade b deck, some still with unbroken glass 98 years later. because of hurricane danielle the ex pe dags had to come to safe harbor in newfoundland, a delay that keeps the debate going -- why did this unsinkable ship with 16 watertigh