process that recognition of risk from june 2022, november 2020, when we know the nature of the clinically extremely vulnerable changed to include down�*s syndrome? extremely vulnerable changed to include down's syndrome? nervtag is a committee — include down's syndrome? nervtag is a committee of — include down's syndrome? nervtag is a committee of dhsc, _ include down's syndrome? nervtag is a committee of dhsc, and _ include down's syndrome? nervtag is a committee of dhsc, and therefore i a committee of dhsc, and therefore its output is fed directly into dhsc. this question is best addressed to someone in dhsc or the cmo, they were not sage questions, they were important clinical questions and important operational matters, but i wouldn't expect them to come to sage, and i do not think putting sage in the middle of any future planner around this would be a sensible action.— future planner around this would be a sensible action._ mr i a sensible action. thank you. mr jacobs, a sensible action. thank you. mr jacobs. sorry. — a sensible action. thank you. mr jacobs, sorry, last— a sensible action. thank you. mr jacobs, sorry, last again! - a sensible action. thank you. mr jacobs, sorry, last again! thank| jacobs, sorry, last again! thank ou, m jacobs, sorry, last again! thank you. my lady- _ jacobs, sorry, last again! thank you. my lady- sir _ jacobs, sorry, last again! thank you, my lady. sir patrick, - jacobs, sorry, last again! thank you, my lady. sir patrick, i- jacobs, sorry, last again! thank you, my lady. sir patrick, i ask| you, my lady. sir patrick, i ask questions on behalf of the trades union congress. it is important when giving your answers, you speak into the microphone. i'm going to ask questions about decision making in respect of schools. of course, the detail will be the subject of a future module, but i have a few questions about the general approach to decision—making. i would like to start, if i may, with an entry in the inquiry schedule of your notes, 273-901, and the inquiry schedule of your notes, 273—901, and in particular page 139. so when it arrives, we are going to be looking at an entry from the 6th of august 2020, pm covid sara meeting on schools, don't want to hear about plan b and cforfailure, ijust want all hear about plan b and cforfailure, i just want all pupils back at school, and in a further quote, we are no longer taking this covid excuse stuff, get back to school. firstly, all those quotes from the prime minister? 0r codes of what he had said? it prime minister? or codes of what he had said? ., ., ~ prime minister? or codes of what he had said?_ the - had said? it looks like it. the context. _ had said? it looks like it. the context. of— had said? it looks like it. the context, of course, _ had said? it looks like it. the context, of course, sir- had said? it looks like it. the i context, of course, sir patrick, had said? it looks like it. the - context, of course, sir patrick, is looking forward to reopening that september. is it right also is a point of context that context that at that time, you and others in and around july and august 2020 had been raising some concern about the potential path of the virus over the winter months and the risks associated with lifting various npis around that time?— associated with lifting various npis around that time? yes. we had raised the risk that — around that time? yes. we had raised the risk that prevalence _ around that time? yes. we had raised the risk that prevalence was _ the risk that prevalence was increasing and would continue to increase, and i had commissioned a piece of work from the academy of medical sciences, sorry, going back to my notes, to take into account all of the things that the government needed to consider. and our view was that the increased lifting of measures would drive an increase in prevalence and that, inevitably, that starts to put pressure on the remaining things that were open. and therefore, in a sense, there is a trade—off between schools and other things, and certainly for the reasons discussed earlier, our belief was that schools should usually be the last thing too short, because of all of the knock—on consequences for children. yeah. sir patrick, given those consequences, schools being open is clearly hugely important, but given also the context around prevalence and r rates, were you concerned, on listening to that observation from the prime minister, that it was a little reckless to discourage any careful focus on when a plan b little reckless to discourage any carefulfocus on when a plan b might be needed, focusing exclusively on plan a? has be needed, focusing exclusively on plan a? �* , be needed, focusing exclusively on plan a? ~ , y ., a, be needed, focusing exclusively on plana? ~, a, plan a? as you might imagine, i was rather focused _ plan a? as you might imagine, i was rather focused on _ plan a? as you might imagine, i was rather focused on evidence-based i rather focused on evidence—based plans, and then needed to be a series of scenarios, not a single option. series of scenarios, not a single 0 tion. , �* series of scenarios, not a single 0 tion. , ~ , ., series of scenarios, not a single otion. , ~ ,., , , ., option. yes. and give us a sense of the importance _ option. yes. and give us a sense of the importance of _ option. yes. and give us a sense of the importance of those _ option. yes. and give us a sense of the importance of those scenarios i the importance of those scenarios being considered in advance, rather thanjust holding tight being considered in advance, rather than just holding tight to the plan a of schools open.— than just holding tight to the plan a of schools open. well, these are very difficult _ a of schools open. well, these are very difficult operational _ a of schools open. well, these are very difficult operational questionsj very difficult operational questions that require planning, and we are now straying outside my role, but it is pretty clear that you cannotjust flip from one plant to another without preparing. 5ir flip from one plant to another without preparing. sir patrick, you soke without preparing. sir patrick, you spoke early _ without preparing. sir patrick, you spoke early in _ without preparing. sir patrick, you spoke early in your— without preparing. sir patrick, you spoke early in your evidence i without preparing. sir patrick, you j spoke early in your evidence about meetings going around in circles. is it quite a simple consequence of having plan a but no plan b or c that one ends up, coming interface are very difficult issues, just going around circles? it are very difficult issues, 'ust going around circles? it makes it more of a _ going around circles? it makes it more of a binary _ going around circles? it makes it more of a binary choice, - going around circles? it makes it more of a binary choice, and i going around circles? it makes it more of a binary choice, and it . more of a binary choice, and it makes it more difficult if you need to change. makes it more difficult if you need to chance. ~ ., �* to change. with that in mind, i'm auoin to to change. with that in mind, i'm going to look _ to change. with that in mind, i'm going to look at _ to change. with that in mind, i'm going to look at two _ to change. with that in mind, i'm going to look at two entries i to change. with that in mind, i'm going to look at two entries in i to change. with that in mind, i'm i going to look at two entries in your notes in which you describe subsequent decision—making. the first, in the same document, is page 181. and it is from the 16th of september, sojust six 181. and it is from the 16th of september, so just six weeks also after they have a plan a, but not b or c. and there is a reference to the pm saying, maybe we should blame ourselves, in a reference to the moon shot which you have given evidence about, the rare moment of truthful insight. and then you say complete chaos over schools and what they should do, no—one had any answers. sir patrick, give us a sense of what the complete chaos was and why it was that no—one had any answers. i and why it was that no-one had any answers. ., , ., �* ~ ., and why it was that no-one had any answers. . , ., �* 4' ., . answers. i really don't know, that was my observation _ answers. i really don't know, that was my observation that - answers. i really don't know, that was my observation that day, i answers. i really don't know, that i was my observation that day, there was my observation that day, there was obviously a meeting where it didn't sound like they were getting anywhere and there were things that need to be addressed, but i do not think i can add anything to what that scribbled note said. might it have been early _ that scribbled note said. might it have been early indications i that scribbled note said. might it have been early indications of. that scribbled note said. might it| have been early indications of the that scribbled note said. might it i have been early indications of the r rates going up? we have been early indications of the r rates going on?— have been early indications of the r rates going up? we knew by then that r and prevalence _ rates going up? we knew by then that r and prevalence was _ rates going up? we knew by then that r and prevalence was going _ rates going up? we knew by then that r and prevalence was going up - rates going up? we knew by then that r and prevalence was going up and i r and prevalence was going up and were worried about it. imore r and prevalence was going up and were worried about it.— were worried about it. were you particularly _ were worried about it. were you particularly worried _ were worried about it. were you particularly worried in _ were worried about it. were you particularly worried in the i were worried about it. were you i particularly worried in the absence of a plan b? irate particularly worried in the absence of a plan b?— of a plan b? we were worried that action would _ of a plan b? we were worried that action would need _ of a plan b? we were worried that action would need to _ of a plan b? we were worried that action would need to be _ of a plan b? we were worried that action would need to be taken i of a plan b? we were worried that action would need to be taken of i action would need to be taken of some sort and that needed to be defined, and i think i'm right in saying that five days after this, sir chris whitty and i held a press conference where we described what we saw as a dangerous emerging situation. , , ., situation. the next entry is at page 339 of the same _ situation. the next entry is at page 339 of the same document. - situation. the next entry is at page 339 of the same document. it i situation. the next entry is at page 339 of the same document. it is i situation. the next entry is at page 339 of the same document. it is an entry of the 3rd of january 2021. that was a day before primary schools were sent back for one day wasn't it, sir patrick? we see that it says the nhs in london is in real trouble, the government needs to lock down more firmly and to take the advice on schools. called chris and agreed to listen directly. he is worried about individual extremist views. schools is a complete mess, largely due to department for education. why did you make the observation, at that stage, that schools was a complete mess, and is largely due to the dfe, the department for education? i was obviously frustrated _ department for education? i was obviously frustrated that - department for education? i —" obviously frustrated that evening, i was obviously very concerned about the rising rates, and i do remember london looked like it was in big trouble at moments, and that schools were considered to be an important part of the spread of what then, i think, was the alpha variant that was spreading very rapidly throughout the younger part of the population. so i think that is the background to this. i really don't know why i said schools is a complete mess, all i can say is that the impression i came away from the meetings with. in the impression i came away from the meetings with-— meetings with. in terms of your impression _ meetings with. in terms of your impression of — meetings with. in terms of your impression of meetings, - meetings with. in terms of your impression of meetings, not i impression of meetings, not necessarily that day but over the course of that first year of the pandemic, did you form a view as to the effectiveness of the working relationship between number ten and the cabinet office, and the secretary of state for education? i had many discussions with the permanent secretary at dfe, who was really trying to get on top of this, and to understand the advice on schools, and i know there was some very strong views held by the secretary of state there, and those views were discussed and are sometimes taken up and sometimes not ljy sometimes taken up and sometimes not by number ten. it didn't seem to me that there was necessarily an alignment between what was going on at the political level, and there was attempts by the permanent secretary to try and draw some structure to what was happening in dfe around this area. you structure to what was happening in dfe around this area.— dfe around this area. you describe there wasn't _ dfe around this area. you describe there wasn't necessarily _ dfe around this area. you describe there wasn't necessarily an - there wasn't necessarily an alignment. is that a slightly delicate way of putting it? how would you describe the extent to which there was a sense of coherent planning between number ten and the secretary of state for education? i was worried that schools planning was worried that schools planning was not under control, that there wasn't a very clear plan as to what would happen and why it was going to happen and how it would be implemented. in happen and how it would be implemented.— happen and how it would be imlemented. , ., , ., implemented. in terms of trying to understand why — implemented. in terms of trying to understand why it _ implemented. in terms of trying to understand why it might _ implemented. in terms of trying to understand why it might not i implemented. in terms of trying to understand why it might not have i understand why it might not have been under control, could we look at page 605 of the same document, the schedule of notes? so we can see an entry on your notebooks from the 11th ofjune 2020, just posing there, is that jonathan slater, the permanent secretary at the time that you were referring to there?— secretary at the time that you were referring to there? yes. slater describes _ referring to there? jazz slater describes keeping gavin referring to there? 123 slater describes keeping gavin williamson away from policy development, but gives him some illusion of ownership, but not as airy and expertise. i am just pausing there before we consider the remainder of that. did it strike you as dysfunctional that a permanent secretary was describing keeping the secretary of state away from policy development?— development? well, policy development, _ development? well, policy development, i'm - development? well, policy development, i'm not- development? well, policy| development, i'm not sure, development? well, policy i development, i'm not sure, but policy agreement, yes, that would be unusual. we are deep into the way departments work here, which i am not familiar with someone relatively new to the civil service, but, yes, it doesn't sound like a very good setup. it doesn't sound like a very good setu . _ . ., , it doesn't sound like a very good setu, . .,, i, it doesn't sound like a very good setu. ~ , ,, v, v, setup. was it your impression... you were in the — setup. was it your impression... you were in the room _ setup. was it your impression. .. you were in the room for— setup. was it your impression... you were in the room for many _ setup. was it your impression... you | were in the room for many meetings. that that sort of dysfunction contributed to the lack of control which there might have been? i wasn't in lots of meetings to do with schools at this operational level, so i wouldn't have seen this. i think this isjonathan slater talking to me as he is trying to get some science advice, i wouldn't have seen that. ok. if we return, finall , seen that. ok. if we return, finally. just _ seen that. ok. if we return, finally, just to _ seen that. ok. if we return, finally, just to that - seen that. ok. if we return, finally, just to that entry, i seen that. ok. if we return, finally, just to that entry, it| finally, just to that entry, it finishes, quote, i don't know what gavin's plan for schools is but probably pretty feeble. pm. is that the prime minister stating in the meeting his view of his secretary of state for education?— state for education? well, that is the uuote state for education? well, that is the quote i _ state for education? well, that is the quote i wrote _ state for education? well, that is the quote i wrote down _ state for education? well, that is the quote i wrote down on - state for education? well, that is the quote i wrote down on that i state for education? well, that is i the quote i wrote down on that day from the prime minister about the secretary of state from a meeting, so i can't say any more than that, other than that is presumably what was said. to other than that is presumably what was said. ., v, , ., was said. to the extent that you were away _ was said. to the extent that you were away from _ was said. to the extent that you were away from being _ was said. to the extent that you were away from being present i was said. to the extent that you | were away from being present in meetings, is that indicative of the confidence, or lack of confidence, that key people such as the prime minister had in the secretary of state for education? i minister had in the secretary of state for education?— minister had in the secretary of state for education? i think that is a ruestion state for education? i think that is a question that _ state for education? i think that is a question that really _ state for education? i think that is a question that really needs i state for education? i think that is a question that really needs to i state for education? i think that is a question that really needs to go | a question that really needs to go to the prime minister, but a lot of these statements seem to fly around number ten about a lot of people. which we may have seen! those are my questions, thank you very much. thank you very much, mrjacobs. that is all for— thank you very much, mrjacobs. that is all for sir— thank you very much, mrjacobs. that is all for sir patrick. again, extremely grateful to you for all your help — extremely grateful to you for all your help and insight, and for your patience _ your help and insight, and for your patience and staying with us today. i am patience and staying with us today. i am sorry— patience and staying with us today. i am sorry i— patience and staying with us today. i am sorry i cannot say goodbye as yet. i am sorry i cannot say goodbye as yet i_ i am sorry i cannot say goodbye as yet i am _ i am sorry i cannot say goodbye as yet. i am sorry from your point of view! _ yet. i am sorry from your point of view! but— yet. i am sorry from your point of view! but tomorrow we will sit again at ten, _ view! but tomorrow we will sit again at ten, and — view! but tomorrow we will sit again at ten, and thenjust so people can make _ at ten, and thenjust so people can make their— at ten, and thenjust so people can make their plans, because we have so much _ make their plans, because we have so much to— make their plans, because we have so much to do— make their p