a low end welcome to cross talk where all things are considered i'm peter lavelle according to secretary of state claims and china is the only country with the economic military and technological power to seriously challenge the stable and open international system all of the rules values and relationships that make the world work the way we want it to is china really a threat to washington's global system. discuss these issues and more i'm joined by my guest says horsley in washington he's a senior fellow and director of the center of american sea power at hudson institute also in washington we have sort of he is asia pacific international relations specialist at the institute for china american studies and in london we crossed when he came she is a policy analyst and senior lecturer. in chinese international political economy part across the bills in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want and i always appreciate it when it's going to set in washington i don't need lincoln's statements about china quite remarkable because basically what he said is that and he didn't say and complete words but basically the international system that the united states has built since the 2nd world war designed by the united states directed by the united states everyone must conform to it and china must too and if it doesn't conform to it that's how they define the threat is that a fair thing to say said no that's not what lincoln said like what it ought to jim in the beginning my introduction what lincoln said was the international or exists right now. and which he has faith has been. a party to along with other democratic countries is under threat by china and weapon chinese call everything with chinese characteristics so that means that free trade freedom of navigation. certainly free enterprise a non mercantilist system. one where there is something where i broke a gradual cooperation on trade and where there is not an acceptance of intellectual property theft full stereo that then that's the kind of world to 9 states seeks to preserve an increase not to enforce upon others which had been barely barely getting it if they'd been really gained and lincoln is saying is that china is challenging it well i mean it is a multi-ethnic polar world right now one party doesn't make the rules or should make the rules because then it will cause conflict when he let me go to you i mean it's it seems to me number one the world that the u.s. is the architect. sure the u.s. has been at the at the meeting since the 2nd world wars hugely benefited china china likes a lot of those rules ok so you know i i think also during that after the 2nd world war all the way up to now the united states has never really had a peer so it has to start thinking about how the internet and international order is going to exist with the peer power go ahead when i would be with china has vanished from the currents of the river or been one that is not was that because it's not into any interest to change it or to challenge i think your phone statement in his speech because i read the speech it's very interesting to see. why it is that he suggests that america is alone. saying that it's a powering nation basically trying to. fight against. that you know how could this obviously isn't true china is not able to challenge america who is here are we now do we not only in this region not home we think that the fact that america has allies and it has nato from when it comes to economics china has roots cordoning to the rules of we gain that has been sent out here and it is still considered on an equal phone and there were a lot of demands that america put her on screen or at this time far demands that we were part of it is not to harm america really should be doing or be associated stephens from that's a place to be again i think it's also important really to highlight that. while the speech really really emphasizes the fact that the end society of prioritizing american values interests the american people is that you are no no longer who we are not this is an international system that's not film for movie after movie or 2 this is no system that actually is very true at the phone. and so the game is very much team. you know blink and you know also you know he talked about it and i'm glad when he brought it up because i stopped in my introduction how it benefited the american people absolutely right i was a continuation of it when said to me china also has its national interests it has to look after its own people i mean why can't the chinese jhoom what went down in that washington must do tyrants on people china will do for example i mean it seems to me it's like our party and if you want to cook if you want to participate you have to do exactly what we say but the united states doesn't own the international or it's a member of the international or the soft you know there are no diagram often show if the united stance is that china is a moral. yes playing by the rules of the game that the united states laid down and china playing by those same rules is going to go boss ahead of the united states in terms of material capabilities particularly economics so just think about it this way you know talking of decades hence if china gets to the level of productivity that south korea is the act to date china with china's economy will be 2 and a half times the size of the united states playing by the rules of the game that the united states laid out china will be wait ahead off the united states and this creates a fundamental di lemma of how to manage china and the problem has been that china does not want to change the setup because it works more or less pretty well for china but for the united states something needs to change in strategy and that's not yet figured out how to change that in strategy and so instead we have this doubling down in rhetoric that china's cheating china's doing this love love love love love trying to create a coalition against china but the fact of the matter is one needs to have a better criteria one needs to have better accusations against china to be able to create that coalition against china and that's not looking at i think this is to some extent trust tradition and ceo at the u.s. and and that should not be the case because china as as we just said is just still end up home including income economy and it is not a given that the chinese communist party will be there for her that's not been the case in taiwan that we have hardware in systems have come down it could could have been in china and we could have a much more clear allies set up at some point of time in the next couple of decades in a decade or 2 and that could completely change the conversation so the u.s. needs to stay true to its values and hopes of the rules of the system that it itself laid down and of course court others who. well the seat to the fire to sunday to do some of the same sets you want to reply to that go ahead well you are . wondering whether there are clashes on the border between china and india constitute or are you here in studio international order but the other guests are saying the united states and said now. doesn't strike me as the. means to conquer border i'm not into the united states or any other democratic country or non-democratic want it what should the united states do if there was a conflict between india and china what should the united states didn't i don't think. that statesmen have the luxury of making plans based on what could or what might happen i think one has to look at what is actually happening and judged by that. china represents a threat to national the international order liberal and national order and what did i deduce that what one should try to do i mean he and he would mr plank and what should china do if just. agree to any kind of demand from washington i don't think that agreeing to demands from washington is not anything to do with how the chinese treat the weavers in their own country or threaten taiwan with force or are flashes with very with the indians on there are on their north a lesson from that if it's you know about go to war with china no of course not ok winnie go ahead jump in i see what it says what you're suggesting is number one that you that america wants trying to achieve just saying here what your rights for i i receive who are who are the injustices there are fans we will keep on board with this that he was out for i think that there's a little bit there. this is hard to see that when we're talking about the fact that you're aligned with the current situation in india the who or conscience the how. even having territory she's protected it's for me i had clashes on and off for decades and they have is oh it's so nice for now regular people you know how they want to do it since we were his cock out. there in the passions that are essentially current 53 who are the insurer who can call out what the america is doing you know to control the hurleys that i'm not saying i want to take it there fight if you're going to for china or for america what so-called china it's who will ensure. that it's necessary for america to fully ringback itself to do with of international we're safer as you say america is not a leader america is not trying to control everything 'd it is just for a whole chunk of this now it's not a question of holding trying the rules of the american order. it's a question now what sort of a warder exists in the world the united states is not even this part shall now understand that the threat to the international order is recognised not simply by the united states but by europe well is demonstrated by the fact that the british are sending a carrier strike the south china sea the french are sending a submarine the german tourists the germans you sending a surface ship and so there's a growing awareness of what china's aggressiveness and you envision well who ambitions be not just united states but for europe as well and i expect that will continue sort of to the end washington sort of that it is china a military threat and became a miner the british going all the way around the world to to the south china sea which from the stars i know has that be it where china is the south china sea is called that for a reason here i mean if. it seems to me that we're seeing so much of a military response i mean is i would think that's a kind of the last thing you would want to be presenting what there's so many things you can diplomacy the can happen for that i mean you know when this is all that is all that does is known to react military let's go to our other guest in washington mr cooper go. you know that this one of. the perfect find out if one talks about globally expansionists in terms of china being doing this this globally and then all the issues that we talk about a frankly right at stirfry in which some 18 many of which are tests already pretty legitimate claims i mean if i come to the south china sea you think about they can go to china and get more disturbed actually china prior to what happened on the volga at what sort of boundary resolution proposal with regard to a certain segment off the bottom 3 what do they need to the indians instead went to and declare that kashmir was a union territory not we don't question it as a certain area which is also disputed by china because china does these things everybody jumps to the side even when when the other countries do it sorry if you have to jump in here we have to go to a heartbreaking f. about heartbreak your discussion on us china relations stay with our troops. who were. there are tactics that can be used to get innocent people to confess to crimes they didn't commit i don't even think people in the us really get that the police are allowed to lie to the person who falsely from the past actually came to believe the lie that they were told about their own behavior once a post confession is taken the case is closed and nobody really can tell the difference between a good confession and one that isn't. the 2021 variant of the housing crisis is to pump money into the economy so that all the assets held on the balance sheet of warren buffett in public banks go up in value and that the people that lost a lot of wealth in 2008 the rally people of color are now getting break over the coals again through this inflationary past their asset. welcome back to cross talk where all things are considered about to remind you we're talking about the u.s. china relationship. go back to mr group in washington d.c. you're talking about perceptions of chinese aggression go right ahead yeah exactly perceptions of chinese aggression you know let's let's be clear about it you know the chinese are plushy bit syria in terms of the way they handle many of these territorial aspects source is an extension off diplomacy and politics but force within certain limits this is not force which is going to be used on the other side of the world and phobia says it's a trendsetter it's a very limited use of force and those that don't use of force has done more for political reasons think about it in time from 979 to 2021 china has had little bit of all that so should we see any movements on its territorial fronts it had less than 150 casualties those last 40 years it's now think about it with regard to the eagle wars it's go home any easier also you have to add to that in terms of casualties but let me get to a larger point don't you let's regard to china again china is very territoriality oriented. and then fall china is not in military threat to the wooden floor safe but in terms of within those scientists i mention and the 2nd i don't chant in the western pacific china has base serious territorial claims and and strategic interests and in regard to those interests it will ensure that there is an anti access anti denials fact. to prosecuting a conflict of contingency which might arise within these waters but that also means that deep beyond these geographies best actually no basis whatsoever for china to be involved in a hot conflict and that includes places like the south pacific all the string off foreigners in the e.u. notion there is no question of conflict military conflict happening out there but a bet is obviously with taiwan it is especially and you can see that that conflict is potentially possible there so again it's a it's a qualified out saying tons of military it's not in the streets fact of the earth but it hasn't actually interests and there is a potential for a very serious questions in zoos that during the odd man out so i'd like you to reply to what we just heard go ahead well but. you know this is. there's a certain amount of speculation here which is understandable. but when the question is asked or when it's asserted that china is not a threat. that may or may not be true but i think that it's important to look at what kind of ships. chinese are building because ships are the way that the principal way for a country to project power china is working on is working on laying the kio for its 4th. aircraft carrier which will be a very large aircraft carrier and very modern one with electromagnetic catapults and all the. tribute to her for a modern ship. you don't need 4 aircraft carriers for the south china sea you need aircraft carriers for one reason alone and that's to project how how you used. question chris speculation. that the pacific is a pretty big place. but to say that china is not a threat or who were merely concerned with regional issue is the ride by the fact of building amphibious ships which are meant to project power and building aircraft carriers need creasing numbers which are meant to be the same ok descending 3 aircraft carrier it already has and will have 3 aircraft carriers by 2030 i don't know anybody saying india is the expansionist i'm going to south america i'm going to go somebody so i mean we need to have a little bit of share in this in this in the context of this debate from. me let me get any air limits but when and if you know we just have we have the quad you know we have in the events being. it's being designed at least by some people in washington to be kind of in asia nato obviously to contain china and so i mean when you see this containment policy being encircled encouraging the quad to even to to militarily cooperate which i i find really problematic i i don't i just can't see how the australians are going to get involved with a i just beat this out koreans out with the we've with china and you think you know south korea is going to really come to the aid of japan and i doubt that too ok but i mean if it does in this containment these are real ok we have ships you know going into the region here ok and obviously making it clear they see this is all i'm projecting power against china not for freedom of the seas but you know they're keeping their eye on one target and one target only go ahead when it's so. the idea of chinese containment has began in the 1990 s. after that you see the whole so you still have the major communist power within the world and the rise of the chinese economy naturally means it's more concerned with americans as to why it might mean for a region where you have japan which is a major ally poor americans foreign as well as the reality are concerned about whether my poor creative in consumer stevie need to think about when it comes to high the you know china has a military raid into iraq which are this the ask it's easier for them so our even to how an idea china and the major military power in terms the onset for ups plane . from we're talking about with centuries of that that china's trying to develop that for a fresh carrier america has to be 3 so essentially yes china its idea of china be a major military power and growing but it's the germans are challenging america that is exactly the sense of power this is not exaggerated in terms that you can see there says how china is prioritizing its concerns and its its our presence in the region it is fundamentally focusing on defense of power trying to ensure that nothing happens of course the markets are one it's hearing within this issue because the so and it's easy to see these he. that you have been trading routes in the malacca straits is one of the reasons why we have to go through initiative because china recognizes that night you chinese the team in is one team prioritize potential risk it with rice the treatments and therefore you need the hostler and there's a growing discussion of how the airwaves right for construct arms exports america and nationally at least that is the world's leading edge for orange 175000000000 for 20 for china experience $9000000000.00 per year over the last decade if not a challenge in that in that sense there in the big picture yes china i can see why there are concerns but it's regional friend immensely regional interims are where china is trying to protect its interests whose didn't disappoint about territoriality absolutely china has never wavered from day one about what its own heart. mr go go go go go back to i mean it seems to me you know what linkage between the rise of china the international scene has been actually spain calculator if you look at the course of history i mean unbelievable and if i can just really give a really broad picture here i mean this is the 1st time in 500 years that a none european power is becoming a peer when the only single superpower in the world this is what blinken is talking about i find it really insulting it's all couched in values and democracy considering all of the illegal wars that the united states participated in in this century alone ok and it's just because china is becoming a peer and nobody in washington understands how to deal with that and because it's this whole exceptionalism nonsense starts short circuiting because there's someone else out there that is