the ones most impearled in this breakdown we have done. those back here from 2002 and if you go into much further back into the 1990s, that sort of thing, one of the reasons that you really want to watch those as the day goes on, these are people that have proven they can survive. these are people that year in, year out have won elections, they know how to get people out, they know how to win. if you start seeing these flip, you've got a real earth shattering election at work. >> when it comes to the top 100 that we're looking at, how to the determination made on what to watch? >> there's a lot involved in deciding why these are the important ones, number one if you had a district, let's look at the ohio first district, here we have a democrat who won the district, but look at the presidential race here, obama obama won by 55%, john mccain 44%. was it the nature of a district to be democratic or republican? if you have a district that is naturally a republican district, and it vote democratic, particularly in 2008, then you can see this was part of the barack obama wave. well, that has now changed, people are not so excited about the barack obama candidacy or the presidency, and the question is are the coat tails there anymore? we also looked at an overall big equation, how are they performing in the polls? have they been able to be re-elected before? have they been able to raise money? so throughout the day, every time we're over here, pay attention, as you see these change color in various areas, that will tell us the real nature, and you'll be able to tell us at a glance if you see a lot of these blues going red, then you'll say now we have a fair number, then you'll say, well that's what people predicted but it's not gone too far. >> it's been a long and nasty campaign, a lot of people say it really comes down to a referendum on president obama and his last two years in office. the latest cnn poll has a slight majority of american who is say they actually plan to vote for candidates who most oppose the preside president's policy. this is a major turn around from just a couple of months ago. >> what has been left now over the last two years for some republicans, independents and even some in the president's own party is disappointment. they feel the president has not delivered quickly enough on his promises and in particular, a lot of people concerned still about the number one issue and that is the economy, yes, the administration to their credit as they point out and the president has talked about out there on the campaign trail, once he came into office and realized the economy was going off the cliff as he likes to point out, but as voters go to the polls today, that is on their minds. so that is what is in their minds when they're voting and for this administration, the president has tried to change that thinking out there saying, listen, give us a chance, it's much more difficult than we anticipated, we're still trying to fix it, but a lot of people aren't buying it. >> we also have the president who already voted today. what he's he doing throughout the rest of the day? >> he did three interviews, national radio shows, including ry ryan sechrest an moamerican ido. obviously what the president is trying to do at the last minute here is trying to get as many voters out to the polls, the president this weekend was pointing out that if he can get energized, and get people out to vote like they did in 2008, then democrats can also do well in this election. >> it's getting the exposure, that's what it's all about. >> after you vote, turn on cnn, we'll be here bringing you up to the minute results and analysis. our live coverage begins tonight 7:00 p.m. eastern, and american morning picks up the coverage. accusations of a race-baiting robo call. a vote for -- returning blacks to the cotton fields of jim crow, he defended that last night on "a.c. 360." >> i grew up during that time, i experienced it firsthand, i know exactly what that situation is and i'm concerned that we will slip back into those days if we don't stand up and fight. i'm encouraging people to do something positive and that is to go out and vote, and i'm saying if you don't go out and vote, then you can slip back into the dhas noays that none o want to live through. >> several democratic and republican field offices across new hampshire also lost phone service last night. she sees all the hallmarks of a plot by al qaeda the arabian peninsula. she also told us that the u.s. is now extending a cargo ban on shipments from yemen and security teams from the u.s. are already in the country working with officials in yemen. a don't ask don't tell policy can be enforced that -- gay rights group that filed the suit may make an emergency appeal directly to the prkt. in indiana, beefing up security at election offices throughout the state. they're bringing in extra armed guards -- could have their unemployment benefits cut off. nationwide it's estimated that 2 million americans could lose their unemployment benefits unless congress authorizes another emergency extension by the ends of this month. >> and the long wait is over, the san francisco giants have won their first world series title since 1954, closing up the texas rangers in five games, their series clenching 3-1 victory last night set off a wild celebration on the field of arlington and the streets of san francisco. the giants will be honored with a ticker tape parade on wednesday. >> and they made quick work unfortunately of the rangers. ten minutes past the hour, rob marciano, is it going to nice as we head to the polls this morning? >> there is a spot that the weather's going to be rough or as you cross out to east texas and louisiana, the storm that you see behind me is going to be rolling east slowly, so where it's raining now, it's going to be slow to end, but north there, you're looking at warm and seasonal conditions, warm and toasty on the west coast. houston, new orleans up through dallas and east through shreveport, monroe, heading through jackson, mississippi. these storms earlier today were on the severe side as they head toward the lower texas coastline, through galveston, and lower corpus christi as well. houston just getting hammered right now with heavy, heavy rain. maybe lightning through the middle of the day. encroaching on atlanta, it will be dry in denver a los angeles 91 degrees. and again a lot of voters may very well be trying to cool off on the beaches, cool and wet across the pacific northwest, and there's a few more numbers for you to specifically invite you to the polls. 57 in minneapolis, it will be 45 degrees and dry weather expected in chicago. more updates on this plus thunderstorm tomas, still eyeing hispaniola, we'll have the forecast track from the national hurricane center in just a few minutes. >> the white house is really hurting the state of ohio. carol costello joins us live with dotes after a quick break, 12 minutes past the hour. [ female announcer ] kids who don't eat breakfast may not be getting the nutrition they need to keep their bodies strong. carnation instant breakfast essentials supplies the nutrients of a balanced breakfast to help build strong muscles and healthy bones. carnation instant breakfast essentials. good nutrition from the start. [ technician ] are you busy? management just sent over these new technical manuals. they need you to translate them into portuguese. by tomorrow. [ male announcer ] ducati knows it's better for xerox to manage their global publications. so they can focus on building amazing bikes. with xerox, you're ready for real business. john boehner who's in line to become speaker is pouncing on something that -- so walk us through why ohio is so key in this midterm? >> it's all democrat now and it's poised to become all democra republicans. that governor's race is very close here. it's possible that we won't know who is governor of the state of ohio by the end of the night. that's how close the race is. i'm in butler county which is near cincinnati. this is very much republican territory. john boehner is most assured of a win here and he's poised to be speaker of the house only if he takes majority of the house. he held this big rally for the republican goubernatorial candidate. john boehner was very much talking about president obama. >> you know while the president's been here a dozen times over the last year and ted strickland thinks it's about him. this is about president obama trying to get re-elected in two years. so if you want to send president obama a big, loud message, vote for john casey. >> and there was a huge cheer from the crowd. there is a democratic candidate running against john boehner, of course you don't hear much about him because the democrats don't even bother to pump any money into they campaign, his name is jason basouli, he was standing on the corner here in westchester and he's angry that the democrats are just laying down and taking it. >> this is a prime opportunity to attack one of they commanding generals. we should fight on every front and it a place we should have fought and it's a place democrats can be inspired to get up off the mats. we fight every race including john boehner. >> democrats are hoping that the voters are energized enough to come to the polls and the polls open at 6:30 eastern time. they're expecting maybe a 52% turnout and the weather should be good, it will be cool, but they're expecting no rain. >> we just heard a comment from the gentleman you just interviewed talking about energy. the president also took some heat from some of hissed adversarial enemies right now. >> it's become a battle and we're not really nice to our opponents so maybe we should expect to hear that sort of thing. but very definitely, people on both sides of the aisle feel they're in the trenches because the economy is so bad here in ohio. >> carol costello for us this morning. >>, so got a lot to talk about this morning, we're going to be on for the next four hours jawboning it. 19 minutes after the hour. ♪ ♪ i was young and i was stupid ♪ i had just turned 17 ♪ a harmonica and a box guitar ♪ ♪ in a canvas-covered wagon stuffed... ♪ [ male announcer ] while the world's been waiting on the electric car, maybe the whole time, the electric car has been waiting for this... the wattstation from ge. it's going to change the way we get to where we all want to go. ♪ i didn't think much of it till i took it apart ♪ [ male announcer ] nature is unique... ...authentic... ...pure... and also delicious. ♪ like nature valley. granola bars made with crunchy oats and pure honey. because natural is not only good, it also tastes good. nature valley -- 100% natural. 100% delicious. both housings of congress and 37 governor ships up for grabs this morning when america goes into the polls. many places are opening at the east coast, we have got the best political team on television this morning to make sense of it. starting with our cnn, senior political analyst ed rollins, leslie sanchez, independent -- the guy who wins all the time because he's an independent. daily beast columnist john avalon. and hillary rosen with us and kiki mclean. what's the outcome going to be today? >> 55 republicans i think win in the house, eight seats in the senate and if there's a rush across the country, we may get there. >> it's a wave, but it's not going to be a mandate. they'll take back control but they're going to find themselves a couple of weeks after the election more unpopular than even president obama. >> they have not closed this deal. they don't have the house in hand, even. they're early voting in nevada. >> i'm not laughing at you, i'm laughing at everybody's reaction. >> democrats are getting out there, the enthusiasm gap that everybody has predicted. >> election days we find out whether the polls are right. >> everybody's -- for months and months there,'s enthusiasm gap, democrats don't care, they're not going to vote, the amazing machine that was created in 2006 and 2008 has fallen apart, that has not proven to be the case and i think tonight people are going to be surprised. >> the first thing les tell everybody, go vote. i love election day, because this is a day we own the country. fourth of july is great about history. everybody's got their coffee this morning, i early voted yesterday, hillary's exactly right. there's millions of americans who did absentee or early voting. i think what's interesting, the enthusiasm gap that's become this phenomenon that may or may not exist, this game ain't over and when you show up, you make a difference. i would like -- it is a nationalized election. people want to send a message to the president. >> nationalized against pelosi, reid and the president. it's very rare in a midterm you're going to have that kind of organized effort, that's what's unique about it and the enthusiasm with respect to early voting, you have seen a lot more enthusiasm among republicans and independents. >> you're the guys again, he's the guy who always wins is the point you were making, but independents are also the ones who are going to decide the election. so where are independents going today, do you think? and i know every race is -- independents toward the gop, it's been going on for around 18 months. right now they have a 15% edge. if you take a big step back, what this election is about is independents largely saying, look, we like the checks and balances that divided government. when one party has control, it tends to leave to ideological overreach and overspending. >> but many people say what you're going to get this election will be nothing but gridlock. >> that's one of the things, about this incredibly polarized political imbalance that would normally say we're going to get republicans responsibility, so they just don't attack the president. >> tie us to the analysis game, do you think there's any way that democrats can hang on to the house? >> i mean there's always a possibility, but i wouldn't bet anything on it. i would actually modify, the shift from independents is towards republicans but it's not necessarily for republicans. this is a protest vote, it's been a protest vote for three cycles now. independents are going to the polls because they're unhappy with the economy. >> michael raises an interesting point, because when you look at following as much as two months ago, there was a lot of press around some focus groups that they did at walmart. as desperate and as broken hearts that those women were feeling about the economy, about the future for their children, anger at incumbents, there was a difference about how they felt about president obama and we see that in other polls so michael raises an interesting point, this is also not 100% protest vote against barack obama and republicans better be careful because i think we'll see surprises tonight. >> hold that thought, we'll get the good looking guy on the end to hold the thought, we'll take a quick break. stay with us. its great. i eat anything that i want. key lime pie, pineapple upside down cake. no, i've actually lost weight... [ female announcer ] over 30 delicious flavors at around 100 calories each. [ wife ] babe... i gotta go. [ female announcer ] yoplait, it is so good. sadly, no. oh. but i did pick up your dry cleaning and had your shoes shined. well, i made you a reservation at the sushi place around the corner. well, in that case, i better get back to these invoices... which i'll do right after making your favorite pancakes. you know what? i'm going to tidy up your side of the office. i can't hear you because i'm also making you a smoothie. [ male announcer ] marriott hotels & resorts knows it's better for xerox to automate their global invoice process so they can focus on serving their customers. with xerox, you're ready for real business. 30 minutes past the hour right now, time for a check of our top stories. it's a last minute bid to reach out to younger voters. ryan sechrest will be airing an interview that he did with mr. obama there morning. questions ranges from will you make a serious effort to work with republicans, to what do you think about justin bieber. that's what you get when you show up on ryan sechrest radio program. haley barbour told john king that he will help republican candidates until the very end before he thinks about his own future. barbour is on the short list of gop presidential candidates. he al a 24-minute campaign ad for republican senate christine o'donnell in delaware is now running on a local delaware cable station. it was supposed to be running days ago. controversy erupted yesterday when delaware 28 failed to air the slot as scheduled. >> we're back with our political panel now and picking it up, ed rollins, you were about to say? >> the wonderful thing about politics, there's winners and losers at the end of the day. tomorrow we will basically have a majority in the house and i think we'll basically be in a much better -- >> despite hillary's most enthusiastic predictions to the contrarisome. >> i have been on her side. you sit here and you get up in the morning, i don't believe the polls, but at the end of the day, it's a trend. it's not pro republican, it's an election about change and an election about anger and the country is not satisfied with what's going on today. >> what we have is a republican leadership that would be taking over that is not about new independent change, the ideas that they have put on the table are about going back to the same proposals that they had before and so the challenge is for people to understand that their hopes and dreams of change crushes the minute the elect sun is over. and i think that's the thing that democrats might have failed to draw as enough of a contrast between what you want as change versus what you're going to get. >> and what happens to these tea party candidates, let's say that ron paul wins and sharon angle wins, do they republican up against a -- >> they will be good conservative votes. there's very few moderates left in the senate and they'll become part of that group and most things will satisfy them. the party will become more fiscally conservative. they'll try and shrink government which is not easy and those are the things that the tea party people want. >> every election day, it's a choice, you go in and you're going to make a series of choices between two, and you look up and you say, what is it that i'm looking for out of this election? and independents are crucial at the end of the day, as analysts we recognize that. but the base for both parties, neither of whom have enough in their base have to show up and at the end of that process, they have to vote on what it is they want out of there. and right now if you want cooperation, if you want less hyper partisanship, whatever wins today you've got to hold them accountable. i hear democrats say to me sometimes, it's two years, let them have it. this is a big job, and my reaction is, i don't think we have two years to give. when you go out today, this ought not be an experimental vote. >> as an old running back, i would say give me the ball and let me run with it. >> democrats and especially bill clinton have been trying to say, this isn't a referendum, it's a choice. because they're trying to play off the fact that republicans don't have very high positives because they're building off essentially a no obama agenda. >> and that's -- the crucial thing is can you transition from essentially a no obama agenda and taking that ball and running forward? that's one of the most interesting things about winning this election. >> if they don't have a huge majority in the house. if speaker boehner comes in and he only has a margin of 10 or 15, rather than 30 or 40. >> will republicans spend the next two years trying to undo everythin