romney's tax plan would raise taxes on 95% of americans. now, mitt has promised a 20% tax cut to everyone. so whose math adds up -- mitt's or the tax policy center's? it's sort of like an olympic boxing match. today, the romney camp threw a punch fast and early, pointing out that one of the authors was a former aide to president obama. as the romney campaign wrote to us, that is, quote, hardly objective. true, one round to mitt. but for the romney campaign, we checked the other two names on the report, and one author was a former aide to george h.w. bush, the final one worked for both bush and obama. round two to barack. let's lay out the substantive charge f. report says if mitt romney's plan becomes reality, tax revenue, because he's going to be cutting marginal tax rates, will drop by $360 billion in the first year alone. that means if it's revenue-neutral, someone must pay $360 billion more. again, that's if it's revenue-neutral, which is something mitt romney specifically promised in february. romney's economic hauncho, glenn hubbard, tells "outfront" that the money will come from an economy that is growing more quickly than it would under barack obama. specifically, 4% a year under mitt romney. that is nearly triple the rate of president obama's most recent quarter. and just to make it very clear, the last year in which this economy grew 4% or more was the year 2000. the tax policy center, again, this report, says, no way. i wanted to get to the bottom of it. we got five very long and detailed replies from some of the top tax attorneys, professors and economists in this country. on the key question of whether the tax cuts mitt romney promises will get the economy growing fast enough to generate all that revenue, new york university's daniel shaviro told us, quote, there really is no conceivable way that gdp growth can make a significant short-term difference to the study's finding. now, conrad dequadros says, the romney's plan is a far more efficient tax plan than our current one and cutting marginal rates and eliminating deductions would boost economic growth and raise tax rern. our experts said, we can quibble with some of the specifics in this report, but overall, they were not able to dismiss its conclusions. the bottom line is this -- we need more detail from mitt and we tried to get it. dean hubbard was helpful on e-mail. the romney campaign, though, was not able to make anyone available to go through the crucial numbers and get the bottom-line facts and resolve this. for example, they could have explaid that, yes, everybody, some people are going to pay more in taxes under our plan because right now, half of americans pay no federal incomes taxes at all. if we broaden the base, that means some people who are paying nothing will pay something, sure, that's a tax increase, at least in the first year. so, yes, the tax policy center analysis is incomplete. it's imperfect. but to score a knockout, like sylvester stallone in "rookcky iii," that would be a knockout. romney needs to get the $360 billion without raising effective taxes on a whole lot of people. so he could be the victorious one because here's the math on votes. if you're raising the tax burdens on 95% of american, you are not likely to win the job of president of the united states of america. joining us is steven moore and matt bennett. great to see both of you tonight. president obama saw this today, obviously it played to exactly what he wanted to hear. here's what he had to say at a campaign stop. >> just today an independent, nonpartisan organization, they crunched all the numbers. they looked at his plan. they found that if governor romney wants to keep his word and pay for this plan of -- this $5 trillion tax cut, the only way to do it is to cut tax breaks that you, middle class families, depend on. >> he needs to fight back, don't you agree, to just lay it out for clearly? how can he do that? >> he can't allow the liberal groups like the brookings institute, to say this is a tax increase on anyone. as you know, the centerpiece of the plan is to cut the tax rates across the board by some 10% or 15%. >> on the marginal rates. >> i think that grows the economy. i'm a supply cider. i think lower rates provide more growth for the economy. i don't think it's unreasonable to think with this and other growth policies we could have a 4% growth rate which does generate a lot of revenue over the next -- maybe not in the short term over but the next decade or so, you get a lot of windfall revenues from that kind of growth rate. where i will fault mitt romney is i agree with you, i don't think he's done a good enough job of explaining, look, we're going to have to close some of these loopholes, get rid of some of these special interest deductions in the tax code. about half of those revenue lost from all those tax deductions, those are taken by the people in the top 3%. >> fair point. >> that's right. it's interesting when you look at the numbers, one of our top tax attorneys pointed out f you get rid of the mortgage interest deduction, charitable deduction, state and local taxes, it does help the wealthy in this country, you more than make up for the $360 billion. in fact, you get $431 billion. he has money to spare. >> the problem, though, is that mitt romney treats taxes like they're some sort of state secret. he won't release his own income taxes and he won't release details on the tax plan. so your experts and the folks at brookings had to make assumptionings that they're not sure about as it relates to mitt romney's tax plan because he hasn't made clear what he intends to do. but the assumptions used in the study you cite are very fair ones. he said he wants to stay revenue-neutral, as you point out. he said he wants to lower the marginal tax rate, to get rid of certain deductions. so they conclude and your experts back them up, what that means is the rich get a pretty big tax cut and the middle class and lower income folks get a pretty big increase in taxes. >> stephen moore, i'm also curious where you get the confidence -- i'm glad to see it. i think everyone's glad to hear it. but the last time this economy grew at 4% annually, which is what glenn hubbard says they're expecting in year one of mitt romney, was in 2000. seems rather aggressive. >> it is. but this has been an extremely deep recession, one of the deepest since the great depression. and we've had no recovery to speak of. we haven't had that boom yet. i think when you take into account -- under reagan at this stage of the expansion, we didn't have 4% growth. as you know, we had 8% growth. i think we can aspire to those high rates of growth. the other point the two of you leave out is if republicans win this election, in fact, they're going to have a vote on this tomorrow about expedited procedures to move next year right to tax reform, to blow up the whole tax code and start over, with some of those eliminations and deductions you talked about, with getting the rates down. i think everybody and all sides -- i think that everybody agree that is we can do much better than the current tax code that we have now that exports jobs. >> can anyone make the point that i am going to raise taxes on a lot of people because a lot of people are not paying taxes right now or is it a political non-starter? >> of course they couldn't. that's why she's secretive about exactly what his plan would do. and it's why glenn hubbard has to be circumspect about what the plan would do. the details are politically devastating for romney. >> thanks very much to both of you. we appreciate it. check out the report yourself. go ahead and let us know what you think. and what you think mitt romney should do next. "outfront" after this, as chick-fil-a faces backlash over its coming out on gay marriage, amtrak rolls out ads as gay couples ride the pride, they say. and the american role in syria, we've got an exclusive report the president could be supporting the rebels. and penn state says it's not going to use state funds to pay a $60 million fine related to the jerry sandusky scandal. does that add up? we follow the money. this is new york state. we built the first railway, the first trade route to the west, the greatest empires. then, some said, we lost our edge. well today, there's a new new york state. one that's working to attract businesses and create jobs. a place where innovation meets determination... and businesses lead the world. the new new york works for business. find out how it can work for yours at thenewny.com. here's one story. i'm sean. i switched to advil® 10 months ago. biking can be really tough on the lower back and your upper thighs. you have some nasty aches and pains. i really like advil® because it takes care of it all. neck ache, shoulder pain and definitely lower back pain. i use advil® because my wife, she's a nurse, she recommended it. [ male announcer ] make the switch. take action. take advil®. and if pain keeps you up, sleep better with advil® pm. and if pain keeps you up, you see us, at the start of the day. on the company phone list that's a few names longer. you see us bank on busier highways. on once empty fields. everyday you see all the ways all of us at us bank are helping grow our economy. lending more so companies and communities can expand, grow stronger and get back to work. everyday you see all of us serving you, around the country, around the corner. us bank. it's something you're born with. and inspires the things you choose to do. you do what you do... because it matters. at hp we don't just believe in the power of technology. we believe in the power of people when technology works for you. to dream. to create. to work. if you're going to do something. make it matter. and sounds vying for your attention. so we invented a warning you can feel. introducing the all-new cadillac xts. available with a patented safety alert seat. when there's danger you might not see, you're warned by a pulse in the seat. it's technology you won't find in a mercedes e-class. the all-new cadillac xts has arrived, and it's bringing the future forward. our second story "outfront," on the day when chick-fil-a is back in the news, crowds of people showing their support for chick-fil-a's president dan c h kathy in his stance against same-sex marriage. chick-fil-a will be the center of lots of argument this week. but today, this is what we saw. two new ads from amtrak. the theme of the ads is "ride with pride," the name of amtrak's new advertising campaign aimed at gay and lesbian families. you've got two dads and a child and then you have others with two moms and a child featuring same-sex couples with children. the ads say that childrens ages 2 to 15 get a 50% discount when traveling with an adult. whooes interesting about this timing is it's the first time amtrak has included gay families in its advertising material. amtrak received $1.4 billion this year from taxpayers. are they using your tax dollars to push who sam may believe is a hot button social issue. that's fair to say. some people may agree with the point of view, others may not. "outfront" tonight, john avlon, michael waldman and hogan gidley. hogan, let me start with you. amtrak says the ads are not politically motivated. >> of course. >> of course i'm starting with you on this one. do you buy it? >> that's right. i wouldn't say that. people advertise for different reasons. obviously places like target and starbucks have been using homosexual couples in their advertising for years. there's really no departure from where a lot of these companies are going. we'll let the market decide. the big problem here is using taxpayer dollars to do it and to make a political statement. that's what's going to turn people on to this topic and make people angry and come out against it, i would imagine, from the right chick-fil-a's a private business. they can do what they want to do. amtrak obviously using taxpayer dollars here, that's going to be a serious issue for the right and i imagine amtrak will become somewhat of a rallying cry or a whipping boy, if you will, for our side and we'll come out and try to show people that we disagree with that type of advertising and that type of use of taxpayer dollars. >> john? >> there's a fundamental difference. chick-fil-a is a private company, as hogan put out. people can protest the beliefs of the individual of running that company. but it's a private company. fundamentally, it's different with amtrak because you could argue they're trying to push a social agenda or you could say they're taking a stand against discrimination. that is a role entirely consistent with a government subsidized entity. this is a lot bigger than politics and social issues. it's not an apple-to-apples comparison as all. >> in fact, conservatives for years have urged amtrak to behave more like a private business. now it is, marketing its services to consumers. when private businesses began including african-americans in ads in the early 1960s, that was considered shocking. now we would say, of course they will. this marks a real tectonic shift in american social thinking and business is ahead of the curve. >> the timing, though, does seem -- a president comes out. how long does it take to get an ad and put it together? six weeks ago he comes out and says, i'm more gay marriage. and now amtrak comes out with "ride with pride". >> you never know. i don't think anyone's ever accused amtrak of moving so quickly. >> oh, that is a fair point. >> wow. >> that is a fair point. hogan, what do you think about the point that john avlon made, which is it would be consistent with a government agency to be pushing something that is civil rights and nondiscrimination targeted which some people feel this issue very much is? >> right. i undetand the point, i just think in this politically charged environment we live in, this is kind of a gift for the right in the sense that we can come out after this hard, as an abuse of taxpayer dollars and i imagine people will do that as we move into the fall and as people start paying attention to these types of things. >> john and michael are both champing at the bit. >> hogan, do you think they should? as a political strategist -- >> i don't think that -- no, no, i don't think it's necessarily a good thing for them to come out and waste time and energy talking about stuff like this at this point. i do think, though, there will be a sect on the right who will be very excited about coming out after -- i use that -- excuse the phrase, but coming out after this advertising plan that they've put out. but i don't think it's necessarily all that important at this point. i think that this has been going on for a long time with other companies. obviously they've used taxpayer dollars here so people can use it as a whipping boy. but we'll try to focus on the economy and not the side issues heading into the fall. >> i think that will be difficult because this isn't saying pro-marriage or anti-marriage. this is normal american life, something to celebrate. tough ramp up the negativity and hatred to attack these ads. >> what they're advertising is kids ride half off when they're traveling with a parent. this is not a special promotion -- >> they are saying ride with pride, though. >> but it's not a special for same-sex kids -- >> no, it's for any adult with any child. >> but negative and hatred are two different things. you call dan cathy homophobic. he says, i'm for marriage between one man and one woman. that's not hatred. >> sometimes negative and hatred do overlap, you do agree? >> of course, of course. >> that's a big concession when it comes to some of these protests -- >> hatred is negative. >> yes, it is. >> marriage between one man and one rick santorum did the same thing. it doesn't mean he hates gay people. >> thanks to all three of you. i must say i gave amtrak too much credit. and you were correct. amtrak sent us a statement -- i'm sorry, amtrak. but you asked for this. this is not a social agenda, the current ads are part of a campaign that amtrak is using to target a lgtb community since 2010. it took them two years. breaking news on the u.s. role in syria and president obama supporting the rebels. the post office had until midnight to pay a $5 billion tab. what's going to happen when they fail to pay it? fore! no matter what small business you are in, managing expenses seems to... get in the way. not anymore. ink, the small business card from chase introduces jot an on-the-go expense app made exclusively for ink customers. custom categorize your expenses anywhere. save time and get back to what you love. the latest innovation. only for ink customers. learn more at chase.com/ink it's hard to see opportunity in today's challenging environment. unless you have the right perspective. bny mellon wealth management has the vision and experience to look beyond the obvious. we'll uncover opportunities, find hidden risk, and make success a reality. bny mellon wealth management last season was the gulf's best tourism season in years. in florida we had more suntans... in alabama we had more beautiful blooms... in mississippi we had more good times... in louisiana we had more fun on the water. last season we broke all kinds of records on the gulf. this year we are out to do even better... and now is a great time to start. our beatches are even more relaxing... the fishing's great. so pick your favorite spot on the gulf... and come on down. brought to you by bp and all of us who call the gulf home. our third story "outfront," breaking news, cnn has learned that president obama is authorizing covert american support for the rebels in syria. this comes as at least 170 people were killed in the streets today, according to an opposition group. it's important to always add that caveat. elise labott is "outfront" tonight. what kind of support has the president authorized? >> reporter: well, erin, we understand what it's called is a covert finding, an intelligence finding, which basically allows the cia and other u.s. intelligence agencies to provide support for the rebels. we have to be careful to note, this is not military assistance in the traditional sense of weapons. the u.s. not ready to arm the rebels, leaving that to allies like saudi arabia and qatar. but the u.s. could provide clandestine assistance and intelligence. we understand this could have been in place for months already. and we understand the u.s. has been help saudi arabia and qatar vet some of these groups. the u.s. doesn't know who it would be arming. they're trying to find how to get the weapons into the right hands so countries like saudi arabia and qatar can do something like that. and also providing intelligence on what kind of troop movement syrian troops are making so that opposition rebels are not found in a difficult situation, erin. >> ellyise, thank you very much. so many report that is al qaeda has infiltrated some of those groups. arming the rebels in syria is not a simple and clear-cut thing. the federal reverse says it's not going to give us any more. no more drugs from ben. they come "outfront." and how specially trained tsa officers rescued a kidnapped woman who was passing through an airport. ♪ there is no relief for the brakes. we'll put them to the test today. all right, let's move out! 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