troubling new assessment. they're expecting the storm surge from irene to flood the area, which includes the ground zero construction site, with anywhere from 6 to 12 feet of water. and other low-lying neighborhoods under mandatory evacuation orders. the city transit system will shut down at noon tomorrow. all five local airports also in danger of flooding. they're being closed, arriving flights, starting at noon. this is what they're concerned of. pictures of irene hitting the bahamas. new yorkers are used to seeing this on tv, not up close, though. they might see a version of it about 36 hours from now. all day today irene was making its way north. as it did, emergency plans started kicking in. warnings went up. people stocked up or hunkered down or they took off. in a moment we'll check in with anderson and our entire team for irene. first, chad myers and the late bulletin from the national hurricane center. chad, what's the latest? >> not much change in the forecast and not much change in the track. we're still at 100 miles per hour. we're still forecast to get slightly weaker as we run the storm over north carolina. and then on up into the northeast. and that's good news. i still think because of the size of this storm that that flooding potential in downtown new york, in manhattan, in parts of hoboken and rockaway beach and long beach in new york still there as the waves will be pushing, the winds will be pushing water up against that shore for a very long time. here's what's happened to the storm and what happened earlier today and also during the day yesterday as the turn happened. during that turn there was enough wind shear pushing the storm from a different direction that the storm didn't like it very much. and the storm really disintegrated for a while. extremely low pressure. in fact, right now the pressure is low enough to make a category 3 hurricane. it's just not organized enough to get those category 3 winds. that's not saying it couldn't happen tonight. we could wake up tomorrow morning. one of the things the hurricane center will tell you is that the forecast for hurricane wind speed is harder, much harder than hurricane direction. so we can wake up tomorrow morning and see that too be something bigger than that. we'll see. i don't think that's the forecast and it's certainly not what anybody else here thinks as well. but it will drive itself right over north carolina. very close to ed who is in wrightsville beach. probably a little bit farther east. just to the west of the cape hatteras light and back to the west there and east of virginia beach, slowly back into the ocean here. the problem is we will have such a large wind field with each one of these circles, each one of these spins, that the waves and winds will be pushing in one direction for a very long time. so just like pushing water for 12 hours in all one direction here around and around and around. you start to pile up the water. that could actually be a wind-driven surge all the way into parts of the chesapeake as the the water runs in there, all the way back up the james a little bit. or back up to delaware, into wilmington. everybody has been asking, what about philadelphia? we haven't really been talking about philadelphia. you haven't been talked about very much because you're just far enough to get 69-mile-per-hour winds but certainly not the eye. the big threat with all of this as we get rid of the winds, the biggest threat on this side will be the rainfall potential. and philadelphia, i think that's your biggest potential for rainfall. your biggest potential for damage would be flooding. you could see 10 inches of rainfall, philadelphia. same story for wilkes-barre, new city, all the way back up to schenectady and albany, saratoga springs. can you imagine what the rugged areas in the poconos and catskills would do with 10 inches of rainfall? there's the threat there. the threat for new york city is clearly if you take all that water and pile it up in the harbor and take it and push it around into the north part of long island, long island sound there, that is all going to have to go to one place, the east river. the east river goes up and all of eastern manhattan floods, williamsburg and that's right where laguardia is. water tries to rush from two separate directions and it can't do it very long without rising. i suspect we'll be wet not with rain but saltwater because of the water getting pushed in from the ocean by tomorrow. >> different areas to be worried about. chad, thank you. we'll continue to check in with you. now to brian todd in wilmington, north carolina. brian, what are conditions like where you are? >> well, we're just getting hit with the outer bands of hurricane irene. you can see how bad it is here. we're getting whipped by wind and very strong rain in wilmington. we're on the edge of the cape fear river here. they're very worried about flash flooding. we have seen traces of it in wilmington, getting hit pretty hard. emergency management director i spoke with him a little while ago. already some 6,000 customers are without power. in this area they have power, but they're worried about power lines snapping down. we came from wrightsville beach over here. a lot of power lines whipping violently. that's a big concern in this area. losing power in this area. flash flooding. a huge worry here. experts have told us there are a lot of time being died during and after hurricanes because they're trying to drive-through flooded gullies, roads that are a lot deeper with water than they think it is. so experts are saying you have to stay out of this stuff during and after a hurricane. don't try to drive-through it. that's going to be a big concern here for flash floods because of the danger. the winds are whipping from the north. a lot of time it will change direction during the hurricanes and hit you from different directions. so this is kind of what we're dealing with here. again, the outer band of irene coming to shore in wilmington. we were in wrightsville beach. this is one of 20 counties in north carolina impacted by the storms, about 3.5 million people. nobody on the streets tonight. people are hunkering down. >> what's your sense of the level of preparedness for this storm there in north carolina? >> i think the preparedness has been very good. they're well versed in hurricanes coming right into this area, through the rivers on the southern and eastern coast of north carolina to the outer banks. they know how to get people out of here. they know when to warn them. places like wilmington, wrightsville pwaoefplt it does take time because a lot of these plates cross inland. the only place to get out is maybe a two-lane bridge. you have to give people enough time and they're very well versed in doing that. they're very well prepared. >> we see the driving rain right now. what's the sense in terms of when this could get really bad? >> well, i think in the next few hours it's going to get a lot worse. they anticipate landfall sometime between 6:00 and 9:00 a.m.. a little bit east and a little bit north of here. so it's going to be very bad probably in the next few hours. and, again, you know, you're looking at about seven to eight hours from now is when it will be at its worst here in wilmington and east of here and wrightsville beach and north. >> mandatory aoe vevacuations were put in place. do we know how well heeded they were? >> they went pretty well. the emergency management director said it went very long. they gave people enough lead time in these counties to get out. again, if you're inland -- we're a little bit inland from the coast. if you're inland you have a much better chance of getting in quickly. but in the outer banks and some of these places they have to cross inlets to get to, you have to have enough time and they did that. there are still people who hold out. and i've heard governors from here to maryland say that's not a very smart thing to do. don't do it. one governor in maryland, governor o'malley, was very blunt about it. he said it's selfish and stupid to do that because you're taking resources away when they really need it the most. they're urging people to get out. if people are going to leave, they better do it soon. >> brian todd, wilmington, north carolina. brian, stay safe, you and your entire crew. thank you. next jean is farther north in ocean city, maryland. what's it like where you are? >> we are not feeling the weather effects yet. a little bit of wind. a little surf. they're really not expecting to feel the storm here for another 12 hours or so. but the city itself is eerie. it's a party town, beach town on a friday night in the summer. you would expect people to be in the streets, for there to be a lot of noise, bars, clubs open. it is completely quiet. you drive down the streets, there are no cars, there are no people. it reminds me of a zombie movie before the zombies make their appearance. that's how totally quiet this place is. they're really worried about flooding. although the army corps of engineers put in the dunes and extended the beaches. they're expecting perhaps as much as of a sixth of the city could be under water by the time irene comes through tomorrow and tomorrow night. back to you. >> jeanne meserve, stay safe. now back to anderson. >> deputy director of the national hurricane center joins us from miami. so, how does this hurricane compare to others that we have seen? >> what's different about this hurricane is the forecast track, which is pretty much locked in now, at least through north carolina, the eastern part of the state, it will be a little bit farther west than we have seen for other hurricanes in the northeast. for some folks, that means this will be the most significant event perhaps in 20 years from a tropical system. normally when we have a hurricane out here approaching north carolina we see the track move on out to sea, missing new england, missing the coast to the south. in this case the forecast track comes through north carolina, eastern part of the state but doesn't turn right away. it's very close to the shoreline, perhaps across long island, southern new england. that means all the weather that is worst to the east will be much closer to the metropolitan areas this time around. in fact, we'll definitely hit the southern new england area. and since there are strong winds, high surge right near the center of the surge we'll see some of that along the east coast as well. >> so, for a city like new york, what strength do you think the storm will be when it comes into this region? is there any way to say definitely? >> at this point what we have is a category 2 hurricane that's very slowly weakening. we think it will still be category 2. perhaps category 1 as it crosses north carolina. the continued slow weakening will persist to new england. by the time it gets up to the new york area, southern new england, we're looking at the lower end category 1 hurricane. perhaps upper end of the tropical storm conditions. what's important about this particular storm is not so much the peak intensity but the duration. it's a very large hurricane. and in north carolina they experienced hurricane force winds as much as 10 hours. and the whole east coast near the center of the storm will experience tropical storm conditions for as much as 24 hours. so a long period. a battering of wind as well as higher levels of storm surge. and because it's so long we'll go through a full tidal cycle in the northeast as well. there will be relatively high tides coming this weekend. so the high tides, plus the storm surge, has us concerned for the shoreline. >> yeah. there's no doubt about it. a lot of damage probably in long island. i didn't realize it would be lingering, the storm winds, for 24 hours, with the tidal surge. that could be very unpleasant for a lot of people. ed rappaport, thank you. appreciate it. follow us on facebook and twitter @andersoncooper. up next, you'll hear from a hurricane hunter who got back from a flight flew the storm. what he saw. and the storm chaser who captured this moment as hurricane irene hit the bahamas and hit it hard. and new video of the damage there. anderson, moammar gadhafi goes, on searches have been covering his network of escape tunnels and secret tunnels. you'll see what she saw tonight when "360" continues. live from hurricane headquarters, i'm ivanka pwraeur ra with an update on hurricane irene. we are down from 100-mile-per-hour wind storm to 90 miles per hour. still significant storm system here. what is happening here is we are dealing with a weakening storm as it approaches landfall as opposed to a strengthening storm. as it approaches cape hatteras you'll have a couple hours away from landfall. those are the thunderstorms that wrap around the center of circulation. notice on the western side here, again, some very dry air that's worked its way in across the western side of the storm. if that continues it will expose the low level circulation. that is excellent views if you want this thing to weaken even more so. 90-mile-per-hour winds is what we're dealing with right now. but, again, we are talking about this still tracking to the north and northeast over the next several days. and by the time we get into new york, we're still dealing with a high end tropical storm or low end hurricane. it is still broad circulation here, so we will be talking significant winds over the next several days. we are talking 6 to 10 inches of rainfall. that is going to be a problem. say we have no winds across new york city, boston, and the major metros kaos the northeast, even without the wind, that rain would be a significant problem for subways and folks trying to get in and out. it's going to gust at times over 50 miles per hour. that persistence with the wind and rainfall, potential for splashover and flooding from the hudson, that is all going to combine to be a big mess the next several days. we'll keep you posted as the hurricane warnings are continuing to be in effect. big update from the national hurricane center. live from hurricane headquarters, i'm ivan cabrera. stay with cnn. moments ago mayor michael bloomberg spoke to residents. >> mta, our local mass transit system, was shutting down bus and subway service tomorrow at noon. and once gale force winds arrive later in the evening, it is going to be too late to go anywhere. so the mandatory order requires you to be out tomorrow by 5:00 p.m. by a practical sense, if you're not out tomorrow morning, you're going to find it very difficult to get out. >> well, earlier new jersey governor chris cysty had one last warning for anybody on the jersey shore. >> get the hell off the beach and asbury park and get out. you're done. it's 4:30. you have maximized your tan. >> it takes many factors into account, including detailed information from aircraft flying through the store. i spoke with hurricane hunter ian sears who has been right in the middle of irene. i asked him what it was like. >> we just passed through the center of hurricane irene. the first side of the storm here just south of morehead city it got quite bumpy. i've been in storms prior. this is about par for the course especially especially with the storm at this stage in category 1, category 2 hurricane. we're getting bounced around pretty good. >> getting knocked around pretty good. now, some people chase hurricanes from 30,000 feet. others do it of course on the ground up close. sometimes they get video like this. we showed a portion of it to you at the top of the broadcast. this is what hurricane irene looked like as a category 3 storm when it hit the bahamas. then take a look. this is some of the damage that the storm did in new jersey. just about everyone else in a leadership position has said you do not want to be there when stuff like this happens. jim edge was. it's his job. he joins us now. you were on the island when the storm smashed into it. what was it like? >> it wobbled to the west and came right over us. we got the worst part of the eyewall. >> how badly was the island damaged? >> we had debris fall down, roof structures were damaged. boots in the harbor and sails on the mast. but overall it wasn't so bad pwufplt they build houses a lot stronger here than in the united states. >> yeah. they certainly learned the lesson of past storms. appreciate your time. glad you did okay in the storm. the first hints of hurricane irene are being felt in the carolinas. coming up, live to north carolina where the storm is expected to make its first landfall. the latest on that next. still ahead, bracing in new york city. sit already a historic event. first ever mandatory evacuation order in effect for all five burrows. the rare time the northeast has taken a direct hit from a hurricane. what impact that has had, coming up. as you know, hurricane irene is expected to make its first landfall on the east coast of the united states in north carolina. a spokesman said it could affect 20 counties, 3.5 million people in north carolina alone. that's where john is from atlantic beach. john, what time is it expected to come there? what kind of preparations have they been making? >> 7:00 a.m. tomorrow morning, anderson. if the eye crosses us here, that's the time the center of the storm is expected to get here. so just after first light. preparations they have taken. not a lot of people who have put up shutters or boarded up. we did see some. most of the people here, at least a good percentage of them, did decide to leave. others said they would go ahead and stay. mandatory evacuation. that means they still can't force you to leave but sit a mandatory evacuation. shelters are open just over in morehead city over the bridge. three that we know of. salvation army serving meals there. anderson, one thing as we see the wind picking up, we have gone through heavier wind and rain now. it gets heavier and heavier all the time. inland flooding is what kills more people in hurricanes than storm surge these days. we're seeing already grounds saturated here. a lot of runoff already beginning. and, you know, as i was saying earlier, we've got the atlantic ocean to the south here and the sound to the north there. but we did have storm surge in both directions as the storm comes by and passes us. but inland there could be a lot of inland flooding and that's a real, real risk for anyone who tries to get out and drive in it. and roads are under water, impassable and that's how loss of life occurs in these things. again, anderson, winds kicking up a little bit. but the rain, steadyiier and heavier as the rains go by. >> john, stay there. i want to bring in chad myers to talk about where you are, where it plays into, where this will make first landfall. chad, in terms of where john so, what can you tell us? >> john is right there. there's morehead city. there's atlantic beach. dual communities. one is the ocean and one is the city right behind it. john, you have a major cell just to your south and southeast coming your way. this is probably the biggest cell that you've seen so far. winds will at least be 50. right now you're only seeing about 35 to 39. so almost tropical storm force. but in the next 20 minutes you will easily get to 50 and 55 miles per hour with that nasty bunch of cells coming your way. it's one of the inner/outer bands now. and as the night goes on, every single band will get more windy and more windy and the gusts will go higher and higher. >> and in terms of landfall, you're still thinking, what, a category 2 for that area, chad? >> absolutely. with that landfall, the way the shape of the land is, anderson, the eye being right down here right now, as the eye comes up and the shape of the land is almost like a bowl, and it's going to hoard all the water and make a big storm surge right here as the storm rolls