Transcripts For CNNW World Business Today 20120305 : vimarsa

CNNW World Business Today March 5, 2012



cities of dara and homs. opposition groups say there have been executions and that the bodies of dozens of civilians have been found in a district near homs. president obama will be meeting with benjamin netanyahu on sunday. he told the biggest pro-israel lobby group that he is prepared to use force. he said america's diplomat pressure on iran will continue. those are the headlines from cnn, the world's news leader, i'm monita rajpal. "world business today" starts right now. good morning from cnn london, i'm charles hodson. >> and a very good afternoon from cnn hong kong, i'm andrew stevens. welcome to "world business today." the top stories this monday, march 5th. chinese lawmakers are setting the political and economic agenda for the year ahead. their annual meeting is now under way in beijing. it was jaem's worst crisis since the second world war. one year after the devastating earthquake and tsunami, we look at how the world's third biggest economy is still rebuilding. >> and chelsea gives andre the boot. the football club is searching for its eighth manager in nine years. the leaders of the world's second biggest economy are meeting to advance their journey to the number one spot. it may be all smiles here but after china lowered its growth forecast for the year ahead, investors are in a rather less jovial mood this monday. banks and stocks are taking a hit worldwide with hong kong's exchange suffering the most among the major markets so far, andrew. >> that's right, charles. we'll get to the numbers in just a moment. first, let's give you the details. it's the last parliamentary session of the current chinese administration which is now under way in beijing with china's leaders setting economic goals. the premiere, wen jiabao has told the national people's congress that he's targeting annual gdp growth of 7.5% in 2012. that's the lowest level for more than two decades. it's an indication of the challenges that china is facing. now, mr. wen put an emphasis on balanced growth, raising the earning and spending power of lower income workers and farmers. he wants to boost domestic consumer demand as well which has taken on increasing importance as driving china's economy export ability. that means ensuring a recent rise over the lunar new year holiday is a blip and not the start of a more sustained patent of rising inflation. the target, china is setting for inflation rate is 4%. now, the current session lasts for ten days. the 3,000 or so delegates will cover a lot of ground ahead of the start of china's succession process which begins in october. stan grant joins us live from beijing with all the details. stan, the headline number obviously today is that growth number, 7.5%. >> yes, they really have their hands on other levers, haven't they? growth's a bit slower than it has been. in recent years they've been setting the target at 8% and exceeding that. they've also got the problem with the old model, the export model, the investment model simply isn't going to be enough anymore. you and i were talking a moment ago about that world bank report which is saying that china has to start this reform process, the government has to back off a little bit, allow private industry to work more effectively in a more liberal playing field with the publicly owned companies here and allow people to move more freely throughout the country, to work, wherever they can find it. it will mean more freedom in the economy if they want to achieve that. premiere wen jiabao has been concerned with the international outlook, this is what he had to say. >> translator: we are keenly aware that china faces many difficulties and challenges in economic and social development. internationally, the road to global economic recovery will be torturous. the global financial crisis is still evolving and some countries will find it hard to ease the sovereign debt crisis any time soon. >> and of course this is all set against the backdrop of the widening gap between rich and poor here, when the need to be able to move more to a consumption-based growth model. as we discussed before, andrew, this is going to mean a lot of reform. it's going to mean that people have to feel more secure and they'll have to have the social safety net improved. they will feel they're able to go out and spend more, rather than to horde the money. as you pointed out as well, all of this happening during a period of transition, a change at the top of the leadership here. the incoming leaders are going to inherit a very different picture than we've seen for the past ten years or so, andrew. >> it's interesting. since you've been in beijing and you've been in beijing for a couple years, now many years, we've been talking about this 8% gdp growth rate, this level at which china has to grow to maintain stability, economic stability and social stability. they're talking about 7.5%. obviously they think that 8% is no longer the magic mark. why is that? >> well, the key here, andrew, is not just the number but the quality of that growth. as we know, they've been able to exceed the 8% number in the past. you're right, 8% has been the number that's been used as the benchmark to be able to soak up the need for more work and maintain that social stability. the key here is the quality of the growth. it's not just investing money for the sake of it, it's not just building buildings with no one inside or building shopping malls that no one goes to shop in. this is about quality growth that trickles down to the community. it's about being able to encourage the people themselves to be able to take on a bit more of the share of the heavy lifting here in the economy and being able to spend more, not just rely on the deep pockets of the united states and europe. as wen jiabao pointed out and you and i know, those markets will no longer be paved with gold for china. they have to find the answers inside the country. yes, it will be less growth but more sustainable growth and a higher quality of growth. the real problem here, an draw, is where the people are going to feel secure in this environment. the ground is shifting here in so many ways, not just with the headline numbers of the economy but the expectations of the people. before you could rely on tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, millions even, of people flocking to the lower paid factory jobs. they don't want to do that now. these are second and third generation workers. they're more aware, looking for cleaner work and higher pay. all of that comes at a cost. you can't rely on the old model now. they'll have to try to find a new way of growing, more reform and it's not going to be an easy process, andrew? >> this is a really good point, stan, that you raise. a lot of people think because it's centrally led, it's much easier for china to switch ge gears. as you point out, it's a difficult task facing policymakers in beijing. thank you for joining us. charles, it's interesting, this push towards sustainable growth comes back down to what happened in 2008 with the financial crisis in china realizing it did have to rebalance its economy, get the domestic consumption engine moving. it looks like we'll see quite a lot, a bigger push towards domestic consumption in china which it has to be to be sustainable. >> that's interesting. the question in my mind here from a european perspective is to what extent this whole idea and what you and stan have been talking about have been assimilated by markets in terms of their thinking. we're seeing a bit of a knee jerk reaction here. if you take the german markets, a ruffled start, off by 1.5%, gapping right down at the top. i think this is because the xetra dax is very much an export-driven index. clearly, the idea that global growth or what has become essentially the engine of global growth, i.e., china, if the idea is flagging, even if that is hedged with the idea of sustainability, the idea that it's flagging is hitting people hard. the other thing we're seeing is greece. this is an important week. by the end of this week at the latest, we need to know what is going to happen about the private sector involvement, the $140 billion debt swap which is involving private bond holders of greek sovereign debt. are they going to be willing to sign up to the deal and take in real terms a 70% haircut? on top of that right at the end of last week, we had the rating agency moody's downgrading greece's sovereign debt rating to the lowest level possible. that obviously follows all of the restructuring deals. clearly we'll be looking very, very hard at all of this, mean while, we are seeing the two indices in paris as well as -- as well as in frankfurt looking really quite ill at the start of the week and also with commodities down and that kind of thing, some loses for the ftse has well, andrew. >> yes, charles, i totally agree with what you say about the knee-jerk reaction in the markets, that headline number, 7.5%. people saying oh, my goodness, that will be bad news for e exporters. the concern here, red arrows across the board, the headline number is lower, therefore, the global economy will slow somewhat. in the details we're having this pushed toward sustainable growth, which is what has to happen in china, because if the global economy needs a balanced growth, it has to have china in balance as well. take a look at the numbers here. hong con down 1.4%. hong kong is the liquid market. so that's where you see the reaction to the china -- the china news coming out today, down 21,265. shanghai down two-thirds of 1%. australia, only 0.25% lower today. that's a fairly muted response to that headline, that gdp number from china down there in australia today. now, we also had concerns about greek ability, charles was talking about, to sign off from the private investors with the debt restructuring. that's not helping sentiment either. oil is also the focus. president obama is scheduled to rate the israeli prime minister, ben min netanyahu to talk about the iranian nuclear program. a lot of eyes on the oil market. quickly, charles, traders in hong kong, poor babies, they had half an hour shaved off their lunch break today, the index extending its trading day to 5.5 hours over two sessions on monday. they have to make due with an hour to get their sandwiches done, charles. very, very sad day for the hong kong stock market. >> i think it's all important to get you away from the knee-jerk reactions. this is a very bad move, indeed. civilization is surely coming to an end. the chinese take their lunch seriously. we don't do that in europe. i think a bad thing. anyway, live from london and hong kong, you're watching "world business today." coming up, a year on from japan's devastating earthquake and tsunami, we take a look at the challenges of rebuilding a region and fixing a battered economy. stay with cnn. i'm good about washing my face. but sometimes i wonder... what's left behind? 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[ female announcer ] from neutrogena® naturals. welcome back. you're watch be westbound, live on cnn. it was a day that rocked a nation to its core. >> hello, we're at cnn center. we are getting word of a powerful earthquake that has hit japan. >> sunday will mark the one-year anniversary of the massive earthquake and tsunami that battered the east coast of japan, leaving a trail of destruction in its wake. the magnitude 9 quake sents a 15-meter high wall of water crashing into the coast killing almost 20,000 and leaving hundreds of thousands homeless. the catastrophe also caused a nuclear kris witness high levels of radiation released into the air around the fukushima daiichi nuclear plant. just over 230 kilometers from the capital tokyo. all this week, "world business today" will be looking at the state of japan a year later and the challenges of rebuilding a nation crippled by disaster. charles? >> devastation of march 11th dealt the japanese economy a severe blow from which the country has worked hard to recover. in its aftermath, the government was forced to pledge $235 billion to rebuild areas devastated by the quake and tsunami. a major slowdown in manufacturing and tourism following the catastrophe also hit the country's finances hard. kyung lah ask ed noda how he plans to deal with these challenges. >> you've made doubling the national sales tax the center piece of trying to tackle the big debt of japan. do you think that will begin to solve some of the economic's challenges facing the world's third largest economy? >> translator: economic growth and fiscal health must occur side by side. we have to make both happen. looking at europe's economic status it is obvious if there's a problem with fiscal health it will drag down the economy. on the other hand, if the economy grows, so does fiscal health. we must make both work. we have no time to waste. >> yoshihiko noda, the prime minister of japan. his outlook is positive. the debt-to-gdp ratio has top 2d 35%, the highest in the developed world. the government also predicts by 2050 four in every ten japanese will be over the age of 65, put a strain on public funds and shrinking the country's tax base. >> still ahead on "world business today," $6 billion selldown by a u.s. insurance giant, aig. as every investor knows, buying low and selling high is the corner stone of effective trading. it's just what aig is doing to help repay its bailout debt. we'll give you the details just ahead. whoo! 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[music playing] you don't have to be perfect to be a perfect parent. hold up! there are thousands of children in foster care who will take you just as you are. this is "world business today," live on cnn. welcome back. the u.s. insurance giant aig which used to be the world's biggest insurer before its fall in 2008 will sell down its stake in one of its most valuable positions here in asia, aia, which is based here in hong kong. the funds it raises will -- in that sale will go towards paying back its 2008 bailout which was the biggest in u.s. corporate history. ramy inocencio joins us with the details. how much are we talking about here? >> sure thing, andrew. aig is looking to make this much, $6 billion in this deal involving its former asian insurance arm. it involves a sale of 1.7 billion shares. specific buyers haven't been identified yet but they're said to include fund managers as well as institutional investors. in a statement on its website, aig said it expects to use the net proceeds to reduce the balance due to the u.s. department of the treasury in the special purpose vehicle, the spv, through which aig holds aia shares. the balance in the spv is $8.5 billion. the 6 billion aig hopes to make will reduce that by nearly three-quarters. aig has come a long way in its repayment plan. that year, it got a bailout, you'll remember, more than $180 billion. that effectively gave the u.s. government control of company. in 2010, aig sold about two-thirds of its stake in aia to help pay down that bailout debt. this latest aia selldown, well, the remaining stake of aig in the asian business will drop from a third to less than 15%. we're seeing aig's repayments chipping away at its asian insurance arm. >> puts it in context, $180 billion, compare that with 170 billion for the bailout of greece which was the basket case country economy, one company getting $180 billion, ramy. obviously we've been expecting aia to look to raise money. why now are they making this move? >> basically, aig hasn't been doing very well but aia's performance has been going in just the opposite direction. first, take a look at aig's share price. first, over the past year, it's lost about 20% of its value as its bailout debt weighed on the company. compare this chart with that of aia here in hong kong. last week, aia share price hit a seven-month high. that's nearly 50% up from its all-time low back in early october. and just ten days ago, aia announced a record 40% increase in new businesses for 2011. you no he, we all know we're supposed to buy low and sell high. this clearly appeared to be the strategy and a good time for aia to make its move and repay some more of that u.s. debt. but it still got about $50 billion to pay back to the u.s. treasury. the aig has to keep digging more to get out of that mountain of debt. >> ramy inocencio, our asia business analyst. thank you. charles? come up here on "world business today," when we'll be previewing two key issues for investors to digest this week. u.s. jobs data out on friday. will they show signs of a strengthening u.s. recovery? and greece has three days to get its debt deal signed off by private bond holders. will sufficient numbers sign up for the so-called voluntary haircut for greece to get its second bailout? those two key stories, just ahead. from cnn hong kong, i'm andrew stevens. >> i'm charles hodson at cnn london. a warm welcome back to "world business today." let's see what's going on in europe. markets now just about 90 minutes into the trading day, ruffled start to the week, particularly for the dax. last time i looked that continues to be the case. dax come back a little bit but off by 1.3%. the and the paris cac currant, not too far behind, off by 1%. i think what's happening, the markets are worried about what has come out of greece. they are also discouraged by the news on your end, andrew, china's official forecast being rated down a tad. >> that was the headline that came out of the opening of the national people's congress in beijing. this is a very big gathering of the senior chinese leaders. they will end the week picking a standing committee of nine, which will basically be china's cabinet. the premiere, wen jiabao giving the keynote, saying growth in 2012 will be 7.5%. it has been 8% for several years now. it's usually exceeded 8%, the official target. but wen jiabao pulling back the growth numbers now, saying what china needs is sustainable growth more inclusive growth. he wants to see more parody in wage growth for a start and a consumer driven economy rather than a reliance on exports. so big changes signal for the chinese economy over the next few years. well, that's how markets reacted to hong kong, you see down there, which is probably the best proxy for the investor reaction, down 1. 4%. anything that sees a weaker headline growth rate in china causes immediate concern, perhaps once the numbers and the comments have been digested we may see a bit of a pullback off that low there. but hong kong down 1.4%, shanghai down 0.66%. the nikkei down on the back of the strengthening yen and australia making up for a clean sweep, if you like, of red arrows there. charles? >> let's have a look at what is expected to move the markets in the sessions ahead. in the united states, all about jobs. investors will be watching the u.s. february jobs report, the nonfarm payrolls as they're call. that come out on friday, due out before the bell on wall street on that day, four days from now. analysts are projecting 220,000 new jobs will have been added to the economy in february. we'll see which side of those numbers we end up. here in europe, of course, still, greece, waiting for private people to sign on this haircut, as i mentioned, so the country can secure its $171 billion package from the eurozone. the deadline for the signoff is march 8th. that's thursday. and greece must receive that rescue package in some shape or form before march 20th to avoid triggering a default on its sovereign debt. with more on the week ahead, i'm joined by a senior trader at etx capital in london. let's have a look at the spillover from china. seems the marke

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