this program is made possible by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. captioning sponsored by wpbt >> susie: good evening everyone. americans are feeling a bit better than ho-hum this holiday season. tom, an important measure that tracks consumer sentiment rose more than expected this month. >> tom: susie, this survey comes as shoppers are in the thick of the holiday season. it's the reuters/university of michigan index of consumer sentiment. it popped to 74.2 in early december, well above last month. but even with december's gain, sentiment is still well below pre-recession levels. and, the big question is whether >> susie: happier consumers will mean more spending for the holidays? suzanne pratt reports. >> reporter: from the toney stores on fifth avenue in new york city to the decked halls of this florida mall, consumers are shopping. it will be weeks before we learn if retailers get coal in their stockings this year. but, there are signs that scrooge could be a no-show. while several shoppers told us they're spending the same on gifts as last year, they are spending more on someone special. >> i'm finished already-- now i'm shopping for moi. >> i'm actually finished shopping. i keep shopping for myself as i'm shopping for other people. >> reporter: here in the northeast, the bitter cold does not appear to putting a chill on consumer spending. even with high unemployment, consumers are more optimistic about the future. in today's report on consumer sentiment, consumer expectations for six months from now rose to 66.8, the highest level since last summer. experts say that's a good gauge of how americans will spend for the holidays. retail analyst richard jaffe toured new jersey malls today, and says consumers are stepping up to cash registers. >> the uncertainty of the election is behind them. i think the reality of their situation is pretty good. that is to say, most of the shoppers are in the upper half of the economic strata and have money. >> reporter: jaffe says while americans aren't shopping with abandon, holidays sales could be surprisingly better than last year. >> 2% to 3% is a good starting point. could it be one or two percentage points greater? that's my best guess. what's more important to me is not the sales, but it's the profit dollars. >> reporter: no doubt important to retailers as well, who are hoping for anything but a blue christmas. suzanne pratt, "nightly business report," new york. >> tom: consumers weren't the only positive economic sign today. the u.s. trade deficit narrowed in october to its lowest level since early this year as a weaker dollar and demand from emerging markets boosted american exports. the difference between the goods we bring in and what we ship out fell to $38.7 billion in october. that's down 13% from september. we are sending more stuff to china. exports headed there hit a record $9 billion. but brookings economist barry bosworth says both the u.s. and china need to do a better job of evening things up. >> we both have to go through a process of rebalancing. we have to do better at exporting more, and importing less. china has to import more and export less. >> tom: the two countries will soon get the chance to talk about just that, and other trade issues. the u.s. china joint commission on commerce and trade meets next week in washington. >> susie: joining us now with more analysis, robert brusca, chief economist of fact and opinion economics. >> susie: hi, bob. >> hi, susie. >> susie: you know, if this keeps up, big exports from american companies, what is this going to mean for the u.s. compre? >> exports are goods. they do narrow the trade gab, and that helps to boost g.d.p., and bring jobs home. that's something we can all appreciate. >> susan: bob, we keep hear about the global economy struggling and problems in portugal, spain, and ireland, so who is buying from us? >> you're right to talk about that. there is a real risk we could have some slowdown in europe, and it could cause this boost in exports to be short-lived. >> susie: all right. but you still are pretty optmistic about the u.s. economy and the outlook. tell us why? >> i think it is domestic factors. i think the economy is starting to move ahead. the consumer spending -- we're getting some boost in jobs. consumer confidence is up. i look for growth to continue to build through next year. >> susie: you were telling me if the trade numbers keep up, it could boost your forecast for economic growth. tell us a little bit about what you're looking for in terms of growth numbers. >> i'm looking for 3.5% in the fourth quarter. it could move up to as high as 4% if the trade numbers stay in this area. and i think we could do 4% growth next year. which is a high-side number for what people are predicting. >> susie: yeah, because most of the economists are talking about under 3%. let's say you're right and we do get those kind of numbers, what does that mean for the job market? will we see more companies hiring? >> we will see more hiring. i think that's an important thing. and i think the productivity numbers aren't going to be quite as good as people think. so we could see a surprise what job growth is able to do and knock the unemployment rate down by december. >> susie: what has changed? why will companies suddenly start hiring? >> there are a couple of things. so far in this recession, firms have expanded hours work more than they can hire people. i think they've gotten to the point where productivity is falling. people are overworked. they have to put bodies in the shops. they just can't work them longer anymore. >> susan: bob, i hope you're right. we're going to get you back in the new year to give us your feedback and how things are turning out. >> thanks, susie. >> susie: we've been speaking with robert brusca, chief economist of fact and opinion economics. >> tom: here are the stories in tonight's n.b.r. newswheel: stocks moved higher on today's trade numbers. the dow rose 40 points, the nasdaq added 20 and the s&p 500 was up seven. trading volume fell to under a billion shares on the n.y.s.e. and 1.7 billion on the nasdaq. china tightened its bank standards again today, saying its banks will have to hold more of their money in reserves. it's the third time this month china's central bank has moved to curtail lending. g.m. c.e.o. will ask uncle sam to loosen the reins on executive pay at company's that took government bailouts. dan akerson says he's losing top people because of those pay limits. and treasury secretary tim geithner will be on the disabled list this weekend. he had surgery for kidney stones at a d.c. area hospital this morning. still ahead, lemons from lemonade. we look at an effort to make over a shopping district in washington d.c. by decorating empty storefronts. >> susie: some of the most promising u.s. companies are being hatched in so-called business incubators. many are technology companies with as little as two employees, or as many as 22. while incubators are finding it easier to start new ventures, growing them is becoming more of an adventure. diane eastabrook explains. >> this company is very interesting. it's a company called lab 32. >> reporter: nick rosa oversees his business incubator-- sandbox industries-- like a proud father. the chicago firm-- housed in a converted loft-- launches fledgling businesses. and many of their owners sit side by side, running their operations. hallie steube is the c.e.o. of book yap, an internet search tool for books. >> currently it's available at bookyap.com. we're also working on an ipad app, iphone app, and eventually a kindle application. >> reporter: rosa started launching companies with sandbox five years ago, and he says business is booming. >> what we're finding is it costs a lot less now to start a company, and so what we were once able to do with two, or three, or $4 million, we can now probably do with two or three or $400,000, mostly because we're focusing on internet companies and startups in that space. >> reporter: sandbox isn't the only one doing more with less. in the first half of this year, the center for venture research says angel investors funded more new companies than during that same period last year. and they did it with less money. terry howerton also launches businesses, and says many of the firms at his incubator tech nexus need less seed money because they've put together smarter business plans. >> the emphasis is on getting a return, getting customers and making a valuable business, not on "how much venture capital can we put in play?" >> reporter: while it may be cheaper getting a new business off the ground, growing it is more challenging in this economy. marbles sells so-called brain games for adults and kids. the two-year-old retailer has eight stores in illinois and minnesota. c.e.o. lindsay gaskins runs the business from sandbox. she'd like to tap the venture capital market for $3 to $5 million to open more stores next year, but she's not sure she'll get it. >> i think the venture markets have been kind of contained, and haven't been opened up the last couple of years. >> reporter: raman chadha heads the coleman entrepreneurship program at chicago's depaul university. he says increasingly now, venture capitalists won't pony up a lot of money unless they get a large equity stake in a company. >> the investors are challenged because they might have a terrific company that has great promise, but if the terms don't meet what the investors need in order to get a healthy return on their investment, then it may not happen. >> reporter: incubators thinks investors will fund new companies as long as they have good management and a proven track record. diane eastabrook, "nightly business report," chicago. before the recession, before the financial crisis. >> tom: yup, and before the collapse of lehman brothers in the fall of 2008. we're back to those levels. we have seen interest rates rise, and stock prices rise as well. let's get everybody updated, susie in our "market focus." it was a week's worth of small moves, but they add up to new post-recession highs for two of the three major stock indices. the dow industrials did not hit a new multiyear high, but it did add 0.25% from last friday's close. the nasdaq was up all five sessions, adding almost 2% and hitting its highest level since the fall of 2008. the same goes for the s&p 500, thanks to its 1.25% jump this week. the industrial sector led the way today, helped out by earnings and a dividend hike by two components. first the industrial exchange traded fund. today's 1% rally pushed it to a new 52-week high. of the ten s&p sectors, industrials are the second best performing so far this year. g.e. was the second best performer in the sector and the dow's biggest gainer, adding more than 3% on very heavy volume-- more than 125 million shares. this is g.e.'s highest closing price since may. very widely owned stock. the market got excited about g.e. hiking its quarterly dividend up to 14 cents per share. its the second dividend hike this year. but still, it is less than half what its was in february 2009, when it slashed its shareholder payout due to the financial crisis. filter maker pall was the best of the industrials, up 4% to a new 52-week high. earnings and its outlook were better than expected. updating the play for hospital operator tenet health by community health. tenet said no to the unsolicited $6-per-share bid. tenet stock surged above that buyout price. as investors clearly think there's a better offer coming. the buyer, community health, saw a nice 13% rally, as did others. lifepoint up 5% and health management associates gaining 4%. also in medicine, diagnostic instrument maker beckman coulter is looking for a buyer. that stock jumped more than 25%, likely raising the price of a takeout. another takeover bid getting a lukewarm reception on wall street, dell's below-market offer for data storage firm compellent technologies. compellent has been offered $27.50 by dell, and c-m-l continued to sink today. but many on wall street say the price is reasonable. also in technology, national semiconductor fell almost 8% on very heavy volume. earnings were above estimates, but its revenue outlook was disappointing. there were several new stocks hitting the market this week, including a trio of chinese companies. two of them were big hits. one a dud. online bookstore dang-dang came to the market at $16. tonight just below $33. it's been described as china's amazon.com. called china's youtube, youku.com started below $13. tonight at $37.50. the dud was chinese mobile software provider sky-mobi. it priced at $8 this morning, but lost 25%. and that's tonight's "market focus." >> susie: calling her bernie madoff's "criminal soulmate," the trustee recovering money for madoff's victims has sued an austrian banker. a lawsuit was filed today against sonja kohn, the founder of austria's medici bank. the trustee in the case says madoff couldn't have continued his ponzi scheme without kohn's help over a span of two decades. the suit is trying to collect $19.5 billion, the largest and most serious civil claim to date in the madoff case. tomorrow is the deadline for trustee irving picard to file these so-called "clawback" lawsuits. >> tom: here's what we're watching for next week: our scheduled friday "market monitor" is duncan richardson of eaton vance management. the final 2010 meeting of the federal reserve's interest rate setting committee is tuesday. and monday, "beyond the scoreboard" looks at the business of reselling tickets for sporting events. it used to be called scalping, but now it's out in the open and online. >> susie: bank of america has resumed foreclosures after a two-month hiatus. the bank today said it will move ahead on 16,000 home foreclosures this month. most of those homes are vacant. the bank's action ends a voluntary freeze that b. of a. initiated in october after acknowledging bank employees approved some foreclosures without verifying the documents. still, b. of a. plans a "holiday suspension" of foreclosure sales and evictions between december 20 and january 2. >> tom: shares of grocery store chain a&p plunged 67% today on news it's preparing to file for chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. the grocer, whose full name is great atlantic and pacific tea, owns a&p, walbaum's, pathmark and other supermarkets. the company had about $1.5 billion in debt in september. it's not yet known how much financing the company is seeking. investors don't appreciate how far the u.s. economy has come from the dark days two years ago. so says tonight's "market monitor." he's howard ward, chief investment officer of gamco growth fund. it's part of the gabelli family of funds. >> tom: welcome back to n.b.r., nice to see you again. >> thanks, tom, it is nice to be here. >> tom: what makes you so optmistic about the economy? >> we're entering the new year with g.d.p. at a record and corporate profits as a record. we see strength across a broad number of industries. all industries, outside of housing and construction, showing improvement. >> tom: is the recovery sustainable, however, if the government and federal reserve support begins to wind down or even is lessened in the next year? >> i'm not worried about this. this is a $14 trillion economy. once the momentum starts, it is going to be hard to stop. i don't really worry about the withdrawal of stimulus because, you know what? it means the patients leaving the hospital. it means the economy will be self-sufficient. if the economy is not doing well, believe me, berbernardo bern is going that to be there supporting it. >> tom: early in the program we detailed the interest. what's the category g.e. >> continued broadening in the economic recovery. this is a stock that was $6010 year60 ten years ago. and the stock is 17. you get industrial businesses, health care businesses, and financial businesses in g.e. capital, it is now on the mend. g.e. has raised their dividend twice in the past few months, and we think it will be broadening in the economic activity. >> tom: and you're looking at technology of sorts, with google the online search juggernaut. below $600 per share. what's a catalyst and a price target? >> again, this is the king of search. the stock has gone from $741 three years ago to $591 today. down 20%. earnings are up 85% during that timeframe. continued growth and usage on the internet is the catalyst. they've got an 80% global share in search. they're going to continue that and mint money. >> tom: do you have a price target at all in mind for google? >> $700 over the next 12 months. >> tom: and you like mosaic. negligent prices being -- natural gas prices being high. >> we know agricultural commodity prices have risen a lot. we'll be using more nutrients, more potash, and those are mosaic's two primary products. demand for those will increase with an increase in the commodity prices. there is a billion people in the world who don't get enough food, and we think this will be a good place to be foreyears to come. >> tom: you were here last jeer on july 9th. apple shares are up. and pepsico up 2%. and oxidental petroleum, a 15% increase. and a.e.m., the big miner, up 43%. do you still like these? >> we still like all of these. we've had big runs, and apple, they may do for a rest, but we continue to like them long-term. >> tom: ownership of all seven positions? >> i own them all. >> tom: there we go, howard ward. our guest tonight. >> susie: a not-so-jolly trend this holiday season? the windows for many retailers are dark. these shuttered businesses are just another reminder of the many casualties from the recession. buas anna olson reports, now one group in washington is doing its best to make those empty storefronts a little brighter. >> reporter: this is washington, d.c. so is this. like other cities recovering from the recession, the district's commercial real estate sector has taken a hit. and in a place where appearances matter, putting on a good face is important. >> they came out, they measured, they sized. >> reporter: leona agouridis is executive director of the golden triangle bid, a local business improvement group. she's working to spruce up vacant retail stores like this one. >> the motivation is basically two-part. part one is to make the street more beautiful, give some texture and excitement to a business district. and the second motivation is to attract some attention-- positive attention-- to a retail space. >> reporter: and there's plenty of empty retail space that can benefit from a facelift. according to the national association of realtors, about 13% of retail properties nationwide are vacant. that's about the same as it was this time last year, and is expected to hold steady through next year. this is the first building agouridis' group has transformed. the art display went up a couple of weeks ago, and managers here are already taking calls from potential tenants. >> i was surprised, because there's not been a lot of activity in the real estate market down here, especially this time of year. >> reporter: jamie brawner's family owns the building. he says now he can be more selective when choosing a tenant. >> we've gotten a number of unsolicited phone calls from prospective small businesses wishing to relocate to the building, and also from real estate agents representing tenants looking for valuable retail space. >> reporter: d.c. isn't the only city decorating vacant storefronts. it's also happening around the country in places like san francisco and chicago. and as properties sit empty, agouridis hopes art will give passersby some peace of mind. >> one piece of art makes a difference to the one, two, three or thousands of people who see that art. and the more art you have, the more of a difference you make. we're looking for lots of opportunities