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Andrea Mitchell Reports

you can't complain about what happens in the general election if you don't play in the caucuses in iowa and the primary here in new hampshire. and those are the two stops. ron's not even going to come back to new hampshire is our understanding. he's kind of ignoring it. going off to south carolina. kind of a strange strategy. completely given up on the state indicating it's just that two-person race. if you can get it down to two people before super tuesday, clearly that's going to be the opportunity. now it becomes a 50-50 proposition. right? can trump really hold at 47, 46, 47%, is that enough to get him over the hump to win super tuesday states if there's only two people in the race. the math says it isn't but the fact we've even gotten here when no one said we could has defied expectations. >> the haley campaign has launched a new ad in new hampshire. let's take a look. >> the two most disliked politicians in america. trump and biden. both are consumed by chaos.

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Decision 2024 Primaries Caucuses

hard for us to put on the argument, you know, how does trump move that woman voter, that college educated white woman voter back toward him and the republicans? we've seen the deterioration of the suburbs over the last couple of years. how does that mom who's thinking about her daughter and her daughter's ability to have a better life and decide what happens to her body, and college debt, you know, how does trump and republicans pull those voters back? so i agree with jim. i think it's tough to see him get over that 46%, 47%. but i think the call and the rally of the biden campaign is how to pull back this younger, more diverse electorate and coalesce it around him. one quick thing i've got to say about evangelicals. i want to level set a little bit here. i know we spend a lot of time talking about evangelicals. but what you're largely talking about here is white evangelicals. and religiosity takes people of color in a very different direction than it does take

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Decision 2024 Primaries Caucuses

again, like we saw deteriorate in 2016 to third-party voting and not turning out. but it coalesced around him in 2020 with this young diverse group of voters and younger voters sort of coalescing around him and taking him across the finish line. but i think it comes down to what are these younger more diverse voters going to do. but also from an argument standpoint i agree with jim, i think donald trump has a ceiling of 46, 47%. we've seen this in several elections. it's hard for him to get above that ceiling given what you just said about him, given he's been indicted, he's got civil assault lawsuit against him, he's paid off porn stars. so there's a lot of arguments for -- against him. and look, when you talk to that swing voter, that mom in suburban philadelphia or that mom in the suburbs outside of atlanta who will largely determine this election, it's

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Decision 2024 Primaries Caucuses

are still mulling, at least a tential alternative to trump. consider even if the current iowa polls are in the ballpark, if youook at it holistically, about 46% of these republican activists who know trump well by now are mulling other candidates even after trump being president. same with new hampshire primary voting poll which does lean independent. and that is just in republican primaries right now. in the general election, a whopping 58% say that they will be dissatisfied if trump is the nominee. that's bad. a major hurdle, even apart from those trials we mention. now, that same poll found a very similar 56% equally dissatisfied of biden as a nominee. but it's hard to square the beltway top of trump's supposed resilience or dominance than the actual use of voters. and indeed, it's kind of funny if you think about the trump and biden examples we, her a lot more sometimes about it, the disaffected, uninterested view of biden won him and trump

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Decision 2024 Primaries Caucuses

have similar numbers on that same question i just showed you. trump is benefiting from a splinter opposition which he also benefited from in 2016. remember, he got the nomination after a long fight in a large field. in the end, he pulled less than half of all republicans who voted in those primaries. it was about 45% total or as you see there about 14 million votes. he also lost 13 states, even to someone, and i say this, respectfully and diplomatically, a politician who is not known for his popularity, senator ted cruz. >> ted cruz is your projected winner of the iowa first in the nation caucuses. >> trump underperformed and data polls and expectations. >> we finished second and i want to tell you something, i'm just honored. >> former vice president joe biden will win pelts the mania and about. according to the votes he needs, he becomes the 46th president of the u.s.. >> now, these results show that

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Decision 2024 Analysis

lot from our last poll. we can show you that 30 8:46. look at this, in the last poll, it was 50 9:31, she is down 11 in favorable. she is up 15 in an favorable. you know, something that might have to do that, you just look at her supporters. more than three quarters of them have a negative view of donald trump. we have seen this with chris christie, with mike pence. the more you get identified with anti trump voters, i think the more that pro trump republican voters, perhaps, start to turn on you. and again, you -- the pollsters saw this, but it's that question of the weather, it's that question of enthusiasm. and trump's voters, very enthusiastic. desantis's are still enthusiastic. and that's that question, if haley is in second place, and her voters in this poll, at least are not nearly as enthusiastic as the others. a lot of theories on how the weather is going to play out. but if enthusiasm goes into it, that might be a bad sign for haley. >> steven, i know you are looking at numbers across the board for, going on a year now,

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Decision 2024 Analysis

desantis has gone after this group considerably. haley has, as you were talking about this, she's got support now with independents. she was at 23 in her last poll, she's up to 33 here. but the bad news for haley, again talking about this conversation here, the favorable unfavorable numbers here for haley have changed, a lot from our last poll. we can show you that 38-46. look at this, in the last poll, it was 59-31, she is down 11 in favorable. she is up 15 in unfavorable. you know, something that might have to do that, you just look at her supporters. more than three quarters of them have a negative view of donald trump. we have seen this with chris christie, with mike pence. the more you get identified with anti trump voters, i think the more that pro trump republican voters, perhaps, start to turn on you. and again, you -- the pollsters saw this, but it's that question of the weather, it's that question of enthusiasm. and trump's voters, very enthusiastic. desantis's are still enthusiastic. and that's that question, if haley is in second place, and her voters in this poll, at least are not nearly as enthusiastic as the others.

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Morning Joe Weekend

because we have to win. we must when. we cannot let go of our democracy. >> and if you don't? >> i don't know. >> you can't even think about it. >> there are two wars on the world stage that your husband is managing. there is the threat of another trump presidency, which we just talked about. he's a man indicted four times. he is still doubling down on conspiracy theories, flattening the rule of law. many would say that literally everything is on the line. i think you just said thought. this is a massive amount of physical and emotional stress, it would be on any person. your husband is 81. at the end of a second term, he'd be 86. as his life partner of 46 years, is there a part of you that is worried about his age and health? can he do it? >> he can do it, and i see joe

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Morning Joe Weekend

just for joe biden, but fetterman is polling better than he has in a very long time. t.j., i'm going to do this, by the way, you have pennsylvania -- there it is. we have a new pennsylvania poll that has joe biden up 49 to 46. one snapshot. i always look at polls, i never believed. when i was running, i was looked at trend lines. you look at the state of pennsylvania, tread lines are really good right now for democrats. that could change at the same time. sam, what she beat last set, good point. trump set a ceiling. he goes out and says things like that. basically admitted to taking foreign money as well while he was president of the united states, taking a heck of a lot more of foreign money as his whole finally -- family seems to have. under biden, he keeps stumbling on himself. play it really quick. >> there is this report, house

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Sunday Morning Futures With Maria Bartiromo

paul came out with his own opinions saying never if nikki. what do you think happens here? there is a small group of people who are trying to convince donald trump to take on nikki haley as vp. i, i -- your thoughts. >> look, it's too early about veep stakes, we'll see what happens as this campaign continues. i think her holy grail is looking to be new hampshire. she's trying to do a good job which is why they're not putting out any information about how iowa's going to go. they're really looking at new hampshire. they need to get within 10 points of donald trump in new hampshire to give her an opportunity to even be able to go toe to toe with donald trump. i just don't think it's going to happen. the support for president trump in the republican party is overwhelming, maria with. especially when you look at how disastrous joe biden has been. the 46th president is the worst. he's the master of disaster. if everything is going wrong. people want donald trump back. that's what's going to happen, in my view. nikki haley's holy actually is

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