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7 million mark. i would be surprised if they hit the 6 million mark. the 5 million mark the white house is putting out now is almost certainly an overstatement. it doesn't include people who have signed up but haven't enrolled by making the payment of the first month's premium. the 5 million number is an inflated number from the beginning. martha: one of the biggest elements here, that's why we have seen the push between pajama boy and between the ferns. they haven't given us a handle on how many of these are young, paying customers. >> the original estimate was they needed 40%. the last number put that at 25%. it would a proportion of young and healthys that wouldn't match what the administration needs. but that 25% number is somewhat
supposed to be the government's way saying you don't pay by march 31st we're going to make you pay. >> the consequences may be dire so you better sign up for this. look, the seven million target number was actually an economical class done by the white house. they figured that they needed seven million to enroll in obamacare and they needed a certain mix. so they felt that 7 million number would get them acrash the threshold where the thing would be workable the first year. so many unanswered questions as we point out here of, let's say the number is accurate, a little under four million, we don't know how many paid their first premiums paying into the system. we don't know what the demographic mix is. whether the young and healthys are really enrolling to this extent. last night michelle obama said on one of the late night shows, she said, young people are knuckleheads and therefore need obamacare and signing up for it. i think they're a little desperate on that score. >> that, bass sill, contradicts
time to crunch the numbers this extension will be helpful. my one concern, for a lot of young people, we see this in education all the time, making decisions about financial aid and things that require money and significant life experiences they will not make that decision right away. my fear that crucial component, that crucial constituency they need pushing the deadline will make the decision a lot harder for them to make. that is my concern. >> if obamacare were so great as this administration constantly tells it is it should be selling itself. instead the administration spends 10 of millions of dollars and continue do this on a huge pr push on the young and healthys, so-called invincibles that they need to hold up the whole thing. we've seen pajama boy. saw the mom jeans ad. richard simmons rising on the floor, trying to appeal to the young kids. as bass sill says, most people are economically rational.
how accurate they are, when she talks about sign-ups, does that mean who actually enrolled in obamacare by paying first month's premium? we don't really know the demographic mix. they're giving us some estimates but again they need young and healthys to sign up and they're telling us 25 to 28% of those signing up are in that age group. that is not nearly enough to uphold this thing and make it work and again how many of them have actually enrolled to the point where they're paying a first month's premium? we have yet to seen the numbers. jon: let me call up again the poll numbers ed henry was showing us from the white house regarding the president's handling of health care. only 38% say approve, 59% say they approve. as a democratic political consultant how do you fix that? >> the president derided fact people talking about the bad messaging on the bill, but the fact of the matter that messaging matters. to be honest with you i support
going to happen at this point. >> what they call adverse election if you don't have enough young and healthys to subsidize the older and the sicker in these exchanges the insurance are going to lose a ton of money. the numbers are way down the percentage of the young and healthy is so low if this continues there's no reason to think otherwise. the insurers are going to be out a huge amount of money. in the monstrosity called obamacare allows for your tax money and mine to bail out the insurance. i think it would be a good time for the gop to pass a one-line legislation repealing those two provisions in the bill that would be a moment of truth for
think that's really going to be the measure of success or failure here. we're going to know, you owe, in a number of months whether that's happened or not. right now it's a glass half empty glass half full kind of argument. they say it could have been worse. when you look at mats mass they got 15% and 23% and 23% in the first three months. we are doing that or beating it a little. >> charles? it. >> sounds like a lot of happy talk. this is what we used to call rosy scenario. humana health reports adverse selection, ie the lack of enough young and healthys is worse than they expected. second, if all of this is true, if all of this is exactly as expected, nobody is worried. it's like what happened in massachusetts. why are the insurers and h.h.s. running around scared to death that the move to eliminate the bailout, the government bailout of insurers is underway? and the reason that the premium increase is not a
worry is because if the insurers are ruined by numbers like these and they will be, wouldn't you are below the 38% and you plunge to the mid 20's, you're going to have huge losses of the reason they are not going to have to go into a death spiral raising the premium and getting even lower number of young and healthys is because they get the bailout. so they can keep the rates at the same rate and you and i in our taxes are going to be providing millions of dollars that will compensate for a program that is completely out of whack. and that's why republicans ought to pass within a week or two or three right now a provision to abolish the bailout. and then you will see the insurers speaking in a completely different way. if they really have to do it honestly and have to raise the premiums, you will hear them scream. steve, what we don't know in these numbers is how many people have actually
and most important they need to have a ratio of young and healthys who pay the premiums and der reye t-- der rive the l amount of medical costs to subsidiz sicker. you have to have a lot of young people paying in. the older ones are going to be training the treasury of the insurance company. now, when we look at the rollout what a disaster it is, the low numbers and the fact that it looks to be unbalanced and what you talk about just a little bit earlier, all of the fixes even as unilaterally imposed on the insurers all of them are in one direction. it let's off the hook the young and the healthy allowing them to stay out of the plan. there is no employer mandate. it leaves out of these exchanges a lot of people who would be able to pay the premiums. what they are doing with every
premium sky rocket, what that means is with high premiums the young and healthys will drop out even more that's why it is called the death spiral. i am not sure there is any way it can be stopped. even if it is not mraj what a campaign issue this will be and how much it will hurt the democrats because if observe exercises the veto now what's he going to do next year after he lost this? >> good to see you. >> pleasure, thank you. a winter blast hitting much of the country. we will detail the temperatures in the negative digits in several spots making it not only very cold but very dangerous. plus see how the lunch room complaints of thousands of students may have forced the administration to make a big change in the menu. am does the first lady know about this? next. flush
obamacare historic repudiation of liberals of their own singular achievement. >> concerned about it. >> i'm not sure it will be an abolition but something like a postponement. it's being hollowed out day by day. i think what might be the key event would be the republicans, i think are going to introduce a no bailout provision, because the insurers -- because of the add versz selection, the absence of the young and the healthys and the low enrollments are going to be hugely in the hole as a result of these exchanges and going to be hurting. they are going to need a bailout. i think if you are a senate democrat, you are up re-elections coming up in the fall, i don't see how you support a bailout without it. i think obamacare is hollowed out. i think it could be a really historic defeat. i think in the end, probably, i think steve is right, the republicans are probably win the senate, although it could be a tie in which case the vice president will be extremely busy man in the senate. >> certainly will be.