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shrug you, or chief of the general staff that -- part of the deal and get removed. the next thing would be starting to do some deeper defending, this is what the national security council probably already plans for. or at least should have, in part. which, is what happens next? we have now entered a very, very delicate portion in russia's scaling war in ukraine. it's going to be increasingly erratic and potentially there will be a lot more infections in fighting. it wasn't just prigozhin wagner troops. there seem to be some, at least tentative, ten u.s. support from other elements within the security establishment. those are going to have to be rooted out. we are in a very, very delicate, scary time. at the same time, ukrainians are likely seizing the opportunity, and likely making significant gains. this is an opportunity to help wind down this war relatively quickly. fully enable ukraine to have a

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as we look ahead to the next couple of weeks, this nato summit that is expected to take place in lithuania, that the president will attend, was already extremely interesting and relevant. now, even more so, of course, with all of this going on, nicole? >> ben rhodes, viewers of our networks are so well stated all these issues, i'll admit, i made some calls to understand how central the wagner group and paid mercenaries have been to vladimir putin's war effort in ukraine. the answer was universally sizable. they were in the league in bakhmut. some theory among military experts that some of what precocious was a tipping point may have been the brutality that he saw the troops endure there, the way disorders and others were treated. my question for you, ben rhodes, can putin prevail in ukraine without the wagner group another mercenaries? >> well, they weren't prevailing even with the wagner group. if they lose a bunch of that

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no civilians stopped them. russian military didn't stop them. so what does that tell us? i think what we are going to find is the west including the pentagon, to include our intelligence agency, they are going to be dissecting this to see what it really says about this particular maneuver. the other thing is this gives the ukrainians an opportunity to continue to drive that wedge. to drive the wedge in the information campaign, about the distrust, the lack of moral, and the lack of teamwork throughout russia. i think that is what we should be looking at. >> general twitty, one of the things russian state media put out at the top of the hour was that the wagner troops who did not take up arms would be folded into the russian military. that seems implausible. at best. and combustible at worst. what do you make of what you are hearing from russian state

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fighting power, it's going to be significant blow to them, and precisely the time that ukraine has launched this counteroffensive. . with amped up nato weapons. since the invasion of ukraine, the first time around 2014, the wagner group has been increasingly essential to putin's policies. they were at the tip of the spear of his activities in syria. they've been at the tip of a spear in some of his activities again influence in africa. and when the war started, we saw prigozhin come back to russia and ukraine, and really take command as a fiefdom within the russian command structure. it was wagner group fighters, including a lot of convicts who released on the condition that they fight with wagner, who are on those front lines in those grinding battles for the city of bakhmut for many months. prigozhin lost many, many men in that fight. he thought he, he's been saying on telegram another channels for sometime now, the russian ministry of defense was hanging him out to dry. not providing it with support. not providing him with ammunition. so, these grievances have been building.

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media? >> well, you hit the perfect word. combustible. i get back to this distrust thing. when you, in the heat of battle, you need to know that the person to your left and right, you can trust and depend on. there's no way that the russian soldier will trust anyone from the wagner group. i think it will be the same going the other way with the wagner group not trusting the russians. i think there's been too much rhetoric, and too much infighting within both of these organizations, to bring them together at this point. so this idea of holding it the wagner group into the army, i think it is a combustible ingredient. s a >> julia, what are your warg indicators? what are you watching to see tomorrow morning rush a time? who are you looking to sort of speak out, and what would be a

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well, the nicolle, i think the fact that the national security adviser did cancel that trip to copenhagen yesterday, we are trying to drill down on exactly what time that decision was made. it would suggest that, again, maybe perhaps earlier on in the day, before this became a little bit more public, was there a sense of that. and was that why jake sullivan decided not to go to denmark to participate in those talks? that was an open question. i think this is something that the white house is, of course, been watching very closely for some time in this broader sense. of knowing that things can turn on a dime, in an incredibly volatile scenario like the one we are seeing. so while not specifically, necessarily, pointing to the possibility of this for weeks and months now, they've been talking to some of the disagreements. of course, certainly the atrocities by the wagner group's. specifically. i think this is a president who always, in every meeting, with every world leader, no matter what the context or the backdrop is, is talking about

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military defense forces. of shoigu and gerasimov. that's why they're being very careful. and not saying anything, even on the background. usually we don't see the military officials say, because they really don't know. they don't want to be seen as weighing in. a couple of things are very clear. wall street journalist first reported, i think this is true, they are not going to do anything to upset the balance, or the imbalance right now. so they were planning separate sanctions against the wagner group, this could've come as early as next week. that's probably on hold right now. they don't want to see -- to be seen putting their thumb on the scale in any way. they're not surprised that erdogan, turkey called in to mediate earlier, because he's already traveling the west and russia. working both sides, not joining in the nato sanctions against russia. it's not clear that he had any more effect. lukashenko might be the real winner here, he's always been a

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on him and is marching to within 120 miles of moscow. what do you make of what we are not seeing? >> absolutely there is a period here of uncertainty. this is the most vulnerable period, in my opinion. if you take a look at this, there is two big things that are glowing red now within russia. number one there's distrust from the putin administration all the way down to the troops in the trenches. there's a lack of morale throughout as well. and there is a lack of teamwork throughout as well. so when you put all of that together, you can't trust, on your left, on your right, or wherever they may be in russia. whether or not you are going to be totally behind this war. that is what we are seeing here. it was an indicator, when you saw the wagner group headed to moscow.

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vehemently refutes. he was doing some reporting on the wagner group. what would move putin to do a deal, given prigozhin amnesty after this international humiliation of vladimir putin today? >> well, i think it's a sign of weakness, really nicolle. on the one hand, if prigozhin really was making a move for power in moscow, he may need to see if he could've peeled off some of the other russian command structure. some other russian units or regional figures. that didn't really happen. we saw circling of the wagons, and some of russia's political leadership around putin. but at the same time, you also saw that russia, that is over, stretched this has its metal or -- couldn't really stop prigozhin from taking over the city of rostov, which is the main logistics hub for the war in ukraine. and potentially threatening moscow. so both of these guys were dealing with out the hand that they wanted. so for putin to climb down, and grant prigozhin amnesty, and

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city of rostov-on-don. russia's military headquarters, in its war against ukraine. it appeared that wagner forces were set to wage an armed rebellion against the kremlin. citing the deaths of thousands of its fighters in ukraine under what they call, quote, false pretenses. it's a move putin described as treason. the promise to crush what he called the armed mutiny. this is important to note, the wagner group has been critical in russia's ability to wage war in ukraine. they have backed up russia's defense ministry. the white house has been monitoring all of the events in russia all day long. president joe biden and vice president kamala harris have been continually briefed by the national security team. president biden speaking earlier today by phone with the leaders of france, germany and the uk. before nato leaders all reiterating their support for ukraine, according to the white house. let me bring into our coverage our team of reporters, experts and analysts here to discuss all of this. from kyiv, nbc news foreign

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