The two big moves in early US Middle East policy Three months is a very short time, especially in the life of a new administration scrambling to fill positions, review policy, and launch initiatives. And although the incoming administration’s priorities are largely domestic — and in the foreign policy arena, their priorities are on global issues like climate change and fighting COVID or otherwise on China and Asia — Middle East policy has seen important movement, particularly on Iran and Afghanistan. The decision to find a pathway back into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with Iran was signaled loudly during the campaign, and it has translated into indirect talks in Vienna. Predictably, Iran has been testing the new administration with limited escalations in various theaters, partly to take the measure of the new president, and partly as a way to gain leverage in the negotiations. Despite their wide differences, the American and Iranian “administrations” both have an interest in returning to the JCPOA. The contested areas that will be the subject of tension between Washington and Tehran will focus on two issues: will Iran accept any additional conditions on its nuclear program or on its missile program and its regional interventions, and how many sanctions will the U.S. be willing to lift. At the end of the day, I expect a largely bare-boned return to the JCPOA with minimal changes and a limited lifting of U.S. sanctions, with little progress on other issues. Iran will pocket the partial lifting of sanctions to ease its domestic socio-economic squeeze and to consolidate its investments in proxy militias around the region. Once back in the JCPOA, the Biden administration will have ticked that box and reduce its interest in Iran and the regional proxy conflicts that it, and others, are involved in.