with middle-class economic anxiety front and center, well, the early gop front runner might want to rethink this line -- governor romney is also exhibit "a" if you need any proof this week matters. saturday's iowa republican straw poll could knock a candidate or two from the race and so democratic activists are now turning up at gop events hoping to rattle the republicans who would be president. >> what are you going to do to strengthen social security, medicare and medicaid without cutting benefits? what are you dough going to do? >> you've had your chance. anything else you want to say? >> well, i'm going to see what you're going to say. >> you get to ask your question and i get to ask my answer. if you don't like my answer, you can vote for someone else. but now it's my turn to give my answer. >> there you go. >> are you ready for an answer? i'm not going to raise taxes. that's my answer. i'm not going to raise taxes. if you want someone to raise taxes, you can vote for barack obama. >> if you think that's feisty, romney will face a different challenge. cnn has told that rick perry is accelerating his planning and will officially join the republican presidential field saturday. why does that matter? check this out, the new cnn/orc poll shows romney atop the pack with governor perry already running second. when david axelrod sits around and looks at the electoral maps and the strengths and weaknesses as you see them in the republican field, who worries you more, the guy from boston or the guy from austin? in a moment we'll give you the answer, plus the president's top political adviser's take on the job challenge and the republican field and the liberal criticism that the president isn't being tough enough on republicans. but, first, the politicens of the economy and the state of play in iowa, jessica yellin is here and in ames, iowa, two of the country's finest political reporters, dan balz of "the washington post" and jeff zeleny, and i'm stuck indoors tonight, i'm jealous. dan, to you first, are we going to wake up sunday morning or monday morning and be missing a republican candidate? will somebody come in third or fourth that needed to come in first or second in the ames straw poll and be gone? >> well, it's certainly possible, john. as we all know, governor pawlenty of minnesota has a tremendous amount on the line saturday if he finishes really badly, i'm sure he's determined to stay in, but the question whether he'll really have the resources to be able to do it for any length of time. if he were to win the straw poll or spring a real supplies, you would have a new narrative about his candidacy, so there's a lot on the line for him, but there's a lot on the line for everybody over the next few days. >> a lot on the line for everybody over the next few days, jeff zeleny, and two people not on the straw poll ballot, two people that are not in any of the debates as yet, rick perry and sarah palin. rick perry is getting in on saturday we're told and sarah palin is rolling through iowa. how much does that distract, potentially disrupt, the republicans who actually are running? >> i think it disrupts things somewhat. really for several weeks here. there's been a quiet movement and now a not-so-quiet movement amongst some supporters of rick perry in iowa, urging people to come to the straw poll on saturday and vote for him in a write-in ballot, so if he happens to do, you know, better than expected in a write-in, you know, better than even mitt romney, for example, i think that will be at least a mini story line out of here. but, boy, everyone is also wondering what is sarah palin up to exactly. is she coming in here to get into the spotlight, has she not ruled out running? people aren't sure, but i'm not sure that this week is going to bring as much -- is going to ask as many questions as it's going to raise really. dan is right, on sunday morning if the results aren't as good for governor pawlenty or perhaps a couple others the field may contract at least slightly. >> as all this plays out, the president is getting more active. he's in michigan today. he's in iowa soon. he's delivering a message saying i'm trying, i'm trying, i'm trying and i need help from congress to create jobs and he's the candidate that promised to change washington and getting it to work he's telling people that one of the problems is this -- >> but what i want everybody to understand here, the problem is that we don't have answers. the problem is that folks are playing political games. >> i don't think there's any question, jess, that there are political games on both sides. the president means there are republicans getting in the way. i just have this question and maybe it's a lousy theory, but how hard is it, how steep is the hill for a guy whose message was elect me and i'll fix washington to be out in the country saying send me back to washington and i'll fix washington? >> reporter: i think it's incredibly steep not just because washington is so gridlocked but also because the economic picture is so grim and people do tend to vote with their pocketbooks. but it's not in the view of the advisers to the president insurmountable and that's because in their view, john, he remains personally well liked, because if you look at, for example, a recent "washington post" poll, about 53% of americans are saying that they are still going to vote for him or open to considering voting for him. their argument, take it or leave it, their argument is that americans continue to keep an open mind to him because they think he's trying hard. and so among other reasons and they like him personally, so if you listen to him today, what you're hearing to him he's revealing a bit of this frustration that i'm hearing from them behind closed doors, now he's showing it in public view, which is both an honest frustration and also a message to independents that he's trying to break this gridlock, he's trying to be the guy he promised to be when he was here and he'll sell that message consistently on the campaign trail that he's been trying, they're stymieing him. >> and, dan and jeff, let's focus a bit on what jess just said there about the president saying to end the political games in washington is clearly aimed directly at independents. i want to pull up the map because you guys are in one of the great states in american politics here. we pull up the map, iowa, el electoral college perperspectiv it's a small state, obama carries it in 2008, 2004, bush carries it, and 2000, al gore narrowly carries it. a new poll, a republican firm, shows the president's support among independents, dan balz, dropping in iowa. you are out on the ground there. how much of the frustration is directed at washington generally and how much of it has a specific focus, whether it's on the republicans or against the president? >> well, i think that it is very much focused on washington generally, but i don't think there's any way for the president to step outside of that as he's trying to do on the campaign trail. that was a lot easier four years ago when he was brand new and was an outsider. he is now washington. he is identified as the person who came to washington to change it. it's much more difficult to make the case that politics is broken and one way or another, i haven't been able to fix it. so, he's got a much tougher message and nothing that we see so far in the numbers suggest that he's getting through to independents. now, we're obviously a long way away from the real engagement on this debate, but at this point, he's got a tremendous amount of work to do to shore up his support among those independents who were critical to his election in 2008. >> and, jeff, i want to show you new numbers in the polling that reinforces dan's important point. we ran a horse race, and it's 15 months to the presidential election so it doesn't tell you what will happen next november, but it can tell you about the state of play right now. president obama against perry, 51, obama. 46, perry. against bachmann, 51, obama, 45, bachma bachmann. against two candidates on the conservative end, the president gets a bare majority of 51. but against rudy giuliani who is not running but who you would call a moderate republican, giuliani, 51. obama, 45. and against governor romney who i think many voters from last time would view as a center right candidate but not to the far right of a republican heat, essentially a dead heat, 49-48. you could say it's name i.d., everybody knows romney, everybody knows giuliani. but you could look at it and say if the republicans pick somebody more toward the center they do pretty well against the president. >> i think you're absolutely right, and that is the big question here. that's what we're going to see in a debate tonight at the straw poll really as we go forward in the next six months. we don't know what type of nominee this republican party is going to produce. as you travel out to town meetings and see candidates interacting with voters, a lot of the voters who are coming to see these candidates at this point are the people who are looking for the red meat, you know, just the -- the rabid intensity. we're not sure how much the -- the tea party strain that we saw in the midterm elections is going to play out in the presidential election or not. but mitt romney is -- has had this on-again, off-again relationship as to how much he's going to compete in the iowa xaw suss. he knows if he's going to be the nominee, he would like to win iowa if he's going to defeat president obama, so i think you'll see him here a lot more. his challenge is not being drawn into the fray here, he was a bit in the debate over the he oppos. it's very volatile here, but for mitt romney it depends on how much he gets pulled toward the right should he become the nominee and that's still a big question. >> we'll watch it all play out, a big week in iowa, jessica yellin at the white house, dan balz and jeff zeleny, thank you. what goes up, must come down. stocks surged as a roller coaster week on cal strewall st takes another twist. and republican facing president obama are looking at their first big competition in iowa. lage. 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[ male announcer ] it's the at&t network. and what's possible in here is almost impossible to say. is best absorbed in small continuous amounts. only one calcium supplement does that in one daily dose. new citracal slow release... continuously releases calcium plus d for the efficient absorption my body needs. citracal. the iowa caucuses are still a ways off, when you see snow, you'll know the first official 2012 contest is close at hand, and yet it's entirely possible a vote in iowa this weekend will end the candidacy or two. it's the ames straw poll where the candidates pay for the best space in the hall and then pay more if they like to bus supporters in from all across the state. what it is, is a big fund-raiser for the state republican party, who has the upper hand and who might be a former candidate not like after the votes are counted? and how will new moves about the republicans not on the straw poll ballot, sarah palin and rick perry change things? gentlemen, i want to bring up the straw poll ballot first for our viewers as we show it here out in ames. we know on the ballot is congresswoman bachmann, mr. cain, herman cain, that mccotter, and ron paul is well known, governor pawlenty from minnesota, senator santorum from pennsylvania, former gingrich is on the ballot, governor huntsman makes his appearance on the ballot. and to you first, i know you have to be a diplomat, but governor pawlenty from neighboring minnesota, he's put a lot into the state of iowa, if he comes in third or fourth, is he still in this race? >> well, you know, that will be a decision, you know, that the various campaigns will have to make seeing where they place on saturday evening. but what i can tell you is that he's got a very robust organization that he's put in place here with an infrastructure that will deliver those pawlenty votes that they have around the state, but, you know, i'm a sports guy, so that's why they play the game. we'll find out on saturday how the candidates fare. >> that is why they play the game, and it's a fun game you play in iowa with the straw poll and the caucuses. and mitt romney has an in and out relationship with the state of iowa. he's been playing down especially the significance of the straw poll saying that, sure, he'll be around, but will he invest a lot in the caucuses, what is your sense? we do know a lot of romney supporters in the state, i've gotten a phone call saying it would help us out if you come to ames. is he all-in, or is he being cute here? >> i think his national strategy is to try to play more national this time and not as much in iowa. i was a big supporter of his in 2007 and one of the reasons i'm uncommitted to this point is that they're not playing aggressively in iowa as i would like. so, i'm puzzled also exactly what the strategy is. i told him what i think it should be, but i'm not quite sure what it. >> okay. as two guys who are invested in iowa, i want to ask you first about this, governor rick perry, he's not on the straw poll ballot, although people could write him in. he will declare on saturday in south carolina, he's going to fly to new hampshire and iowa, mr. chairman to you first, in terms of the buzz, you've heard it in past cycles, people say, oh, this is the field, we want somebody new. compared to, say, around the buzz to fred thompson in 2008, what is it around rick perry now? >> i think we recognize it by adding a write-in, it's the first time we've added a write-in policy, and it speaks to the fluid and unsettled nature of the field currently and there are activists around the state that are encouraging a rick perry write-in, but we look forward to seeing him in waterloo on sunday. and just like anybody who comes to the iowa caucuses, to be successful, you need to be on the ground here looking iowans in the eye and giving them a chance to ask you a tough question, so i know from iowa republicans i talk to, that's the expectation when they see rick perry here, just like everybody else, he'll have to go through the process. >> he won't be participating in the straw poll, but he's getting geared up and giving every indication he'll play hard for the caucuses. i want you to listen to an interview from wmur, our new hampshire affiliate, he thinks he's as good or probably better in his view than the rest of these guys and congresswoman. >> i happen to think that i'm as qualified or better qualified than anyone in the field to not only make that claim, but to lay out that vision and then lay out those principles that have worked truly well in texas. we've created more jobs than any other state in the nation, as a matter of fact, in the last two years we've created almost half of all the jobs created in perk. >> any chance, that if your last candidate, mr. romney, doesn't hit the accelerator in iowa, you could end up with governor perry? >> well, i think it's possible. i mean, i'm very excited about the entire field we have. i think we're blees pleased tha have such a wide array of choices. i fully expect to be enthusiastic about somebody. and i could probably take a very good case for almost all of them. certainly governor perry is somebody who i will look forward to getting to know. >> i want to ask you both about governor palin. she's going to come to the state there. she's not on the straw poll ballot. many us for a long time have assumed governor palin is not running. let me close this one down and bring this one up. it works a little better this way if you do it right. i'm showing our viewers a poll for standing among republican voters and how many republicans what percentage want her to be the nominee. you see since the 2008 campaign it's gone up and peaked up, 12% now of republicans nationally want governor palin to be their nomin nominee. that's down from 32% just after the 2008 campaign. mr. chairman, is it fine that she's coming out this week or if she's not a candidate, should she stay out and let the others get the attention? >> well, the iowa -- the iowa state fair's a great place, so, you know, i'm sure she's heard the rumors that it's the place to be here in iowa, so we welcome her there. but i think if she is serious about taking steps to run for president, she'll be here over labor day weekend, she needs to do the things proven what you need to do to be successful in the iowa caucuses which is get here and let the voters ask tough questions. this isn't the type of process where you can give speeches to thousands or you can, you know, be behind 30-second ads or even facebook posts. you need to be on the ground letting iowans look you in the eye and kick the tires and i think if you do that then, you know, you have the potential to see the numbers move that you cited. >> does it bother you that she's coming in, she says she'll decide eventually, but in a week that so important to so many of other candidates, does it bother you that she's coming in? because as you know, she's pretty good at stealing the spotlight. >> no, i'm happy she's coming. i hope she comes back and often. more of the possible candidates, enthusiastic people, it's good for the state. we welcome them all. >> welcome them all. two good diplomats in iowa tonight, appreciate your time. >> it's an iowa night. >> i'm the former chairman, too. >> i'm sure one of you will be secretary of state if a republican wins the next election. gentlemen, appreciate your time tonight. you can check the 401(k) tonight. it will look better than last night. there's a prominent democrat keeping a close eye on the republicans in iowa. 2012 strategist, david axelrod right here with his take on the gop and the jobs debate. o of tht are energy security and economic growth. north america actually has one of the largest oil reserves in the world. a large part of that is oil sands. this resource has the ability to create hundreds of thousands of jobs. at our kearl project in canada, we'll be able to produce these oil sands with the same emissions as many other oils and that's a huge breakthrough. that's good for our country's energy security and our economy. what if we designed an electric motorcycle? 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[ female announcer ] phillips' colon health. welcome back. here's the latest news you need to know right now. another case of whiplash a wall street. the dow industrials closed up 423 points gaining back most of yesterday's 520-point loss. reuters reporting european market regulators just announced that france, italy, spain, and belgium will ban the short selling of stocks tomorrow. more than 1,000 people have been arrested in the british riots. four nights of rioting caused at least $161 million in damage. amnesty international is demanding that nato investigate whether a monday strike on moammar gadhafi's forces killed 85 libyan civilians including children. nato says it ha