governor romney has an enormous amount of money but we have an enormous amount of people. >> mitt romney needs to drag him down. >> he's gone from pillar to post. a pinball machine. >> a two-man grudge match in a four-man race. >> there's a lot of folks who talk tough. what makes you tough is at your core. >> no way going to stop the momentum that we have started. >> who will return to florida this summer? as the republican nominee? >> i will go all the way to the convention. i expect to win the nomination. >> we're going to be in this race for a long time. >> forget everything you thought you knew about the presidential field. >> this is the beginning of a long, hard slog. >> we're going to take back the white house. we're going to take back our country. >> the nomination is up for grabs. the conventional wisdom is out the window. and florida will change the game again. hello from the cnn election center. i'm john king. most of the polling places across florida closed about one hour from now. >> we have the most crews in position across the state including our correspondents of the candidates' headquarters. as always anderson cooper is here as well. >> brand-new exit poll information just in. >> we can show you now but we can't tell you who the people of of florida are voting for but we can tell you about the florida electorate tonight. this is the first time we have a much more diverse elect tore rita. latino population 15% of those voting in the republican primary today in the state of florida latinos, 82% white. a very small only one percentage african-americans. the breakdown by gender, 52% of the electorate today, 48% are women. look across ideology. south carolina was our last contest. a much more conservative electorate there. florida 37%, the largest group describe themselves as somewhat conservative. 34% describe themselves as very conservative and 30% moderate to legal. important distinction from south carolina. the tea party movement was huge in florida in 2010, big today as well. 66% voting in this presidential primary 66% supporters, 22% neutral. 8% oppose the tea party. evangelical born again christians big constituency in iowa and in south carolina, a smaller constituency in florida. 39% describe themselves as white born again evangelicals. six in 10 say they don't fit that description there. if you look at the most important candidate quality, when republicans went to the polls today we asked them what is the most important candidate quality? 45% largest groupt said can defeat president obama. 45% of republicans today say quality number one. can they win the general election. can they defeat barack obama. 13% want a true conservative. strong moral character was the number one quality for 17%. the right experience 20% of republicans said the right experience was what mattered most to them. let's take a little bit more about the electorate. were the debates a factor in your vote? 86% of republicans today said yes debates were a factor. how big a factor? an important factor 50%. the most important factor 17%. so 67% say important or most important. minor factor 19%. 10% says the debates were not a particular for as all. campaign ads, this is interesting. so much money spent on campaign ads. a lot of complaints from speaker gingrich about the campaign ads. 24% say important factor, 34% minor factor. majority say minor or not at all. only 15% said it was the most important factor. one last footnote who ran the most unfair campaign? if you listened to recent days, speaker gingrich was complaining about the negative ads. he said mitt romney was being dishonest. voters did nots see it that way. 37% said romney ran the most unfair campaign. 34% gingrich. only 4% for rick santorum and ron paul. >> over to the romney and gingrich campaigns right now, candy crowley is at the romney headquarters, jim acosta at the gingrich campaign headquarters. candy, what are our romney campaign advisers expecting for tonight? >> well, listen. they will tell you, a 6 or 7% margin. they're clearly expecting a victory. i have to tell you out in the hallway there are t-shirts with florida on them that say "florida believes" and believe in america is mitt romney's slogan. so they are looking for a victory tonight. you've seen the polls. a double-digit victory would be great. i have to tell you they are also looking at the breadth of a win should they get it. that is particularly how did they do among women and among those very conservative voters that john is talking about. two key things for them as they watch tonight for a variety of reasons. and even though we are seeing that a lot of people say what was on the air here in terms of advertising didn't really affect their vote, i can also tell you just from what mitt romney is saying that he intends to continue to be not on the defense but on the offense. take a listen. >> if you're attacked i'm not going to just sit back. i'm going it fight back and fight back hard. >> so expect more of the same going on. this still is a heated battle. bose these men obviously going on after this along with santorum and paul, wolf? >> we'll be checking back with you throughout the night, candy. jim acosta is at the newt gingrich headquarters. jim, where does newt gingrich see this race moving after tonight? >> well, wolf, newt gingrich likes to remind reporters that he's been dead before in this campaign twice. i had a chance to catch up with the former speaker out on the campaign trail earlier today. and i asked him is there still a chance for you to become the republican nominee after what might be a pretty big beating down here in florida. and he said, of course. here's what he had to say. >> mr. speaker, do you still see a path to the nomination after florida? >> oh, sure. of course. >> how do you see that happen? >> unify the conservatives. romney's not going to get anywhere near a majority here. unify the conservatives, win the delegates and have the nomination. >> did you let your guard down to mitt romney would you say? >> no. i would say when you're outspent 5 to 1 with ads that are dishonest it's a challenge. >> are you saying he's run a dishonest campaign, sir? >> that's what the wall veet journal and national review said. >> as for that onslaught of negative ads, the former speaker does have some numbers to back him up. the folks at cantor cnag have run an analysis of the ads. .1% of the ads here in florida in the last week have been pro romney. nearly 70% have been anti-gingrich. those are tough numbers to beat, wolf. >> very tough numbers. i see they're getting ready for the former speaker to deliver a speech where you are. we'll check back with you, jim acosta, thanks very much. anderson cooper is with us every step of the way. >> i'm here with chief political analyst gloria borger and senior political analyst david gergen. >> i'm watching to see whether romney can win an election with the support of the most conservative voters and the tea party. because even though we saw him win in new hampshire, it was kind of his backyard. and we need to see whether he can really rally the conservative base of the party, the tea partiers who have been so skeptical about him in the past. >> how much has he been reaching out to them this time? >> he has been reaching out. he's been calling them on the telephone. he's been really soliciting them. which he hasn't actually done in the past. of course, newt gingrich's entire candidacy is premised upon being the not romney, the most conservative, the heir to the reagan legacy. so it will be interesting to see if romney can actually get those conservatives on board. >> we introduced the show tonight by saying the nomination's up for grabs. to me the big question tonight is will romney grab it tonight. if he wins decisively i think he'll be much closer to that goal. if it's over ten points, if it's double digits, this is the first major state, a major battle ground state in the general election. and a person who can win here among republicans is a more formidable candidate for the republican party. >> the next couple of states are also probably in romney's favor. >> exactly right. i think it's a major night to just test how broad, how deep is romney's support. i was also surprised, anderson, and we've been talk all week about this avalanche of negative ads. but voters seem to think the debates were more important to them in making up their minds than the ads. and that's not good news for newt gingrich who had two lackluster debates here. >> also senator marco rubio from florida, a very popular among republicans in that state. talked about the results tonight. let's show what he said. >> i think that the winner of florida is in all likelihood going to be not. knee of our party. and rightfully so. florida as you just said is a mini america. virtually every issue we want our nominee to be conversant on and convincing on is an issue they've had to confront her in florida. >> is that a tacit endorsement of mitt romney assuming he wins? >> he's walked right up to the line but decided not to endorse. i think what he's saying is accurate about the state, which that is not only is it a battle ground but if you can win in florida you're likely to be the one winning the nomination. i mean, the gingrich campaign if they don't win in florida tonight, going to say only 5% of the delegates have been picked. it's a long slog. and we can go -- we can go all the way to the convention which may be true. the question is can they raise the money if they don't win tonight and will they have the momentum that mitt romney would be able to claim? >> and john king as you mentioned earlier this is the most diverse state we have yet to see a primary in. >> it is, anderson. 15% of the electorate latinos tonight. more moderate voters that we have are looking through this early election poll information now. we're going to take a look at the first snapshot of who's voting today and why and how issue number one, the economy, figures in. and we all know florida, remembering the hanging chad, has a history of ballot problems. we're going behind the scenes with our exclusive ballot cams to watch the voting. later the counting in real time. all energy development comes with some risk, but proven technologies allow natural gas producers to supply affordable, cleaner energy, while protecting our environment. across america, these technologies protect air - by monitoring air quality and reducing emissions... ...protect water - through conservation and self-contained recycling systems... ... and protect land - by reducing our footprint and respecting wildlife. america's natural gas... domestic, abundant, clean energy to power our lives... that's smarter power today. to help protect your eye health as you age... would you take it? 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[ male announcer ] ocuvite. help protect your eye health. take the privileged investing tools of wall street and make them simple, intuitive, and available to all. distill all that data. make information instinctual, visual. introducing trade architect, td ameritrade's empowering web-based trading platform. take control of your portfolio today. trade commission-free for 60 days, and we'll throw in up $600 when you open an account. welcome back to the cnn election center. about 45 minutes away the first polls close in florida at 7:00 p.m. eastern. up in the florida panhandle they close at 8:00. you see the great diverse state of florida, 50 delegates at stake tonight. it is up here the polls are open a little bit later so we need to wait. but the state's the most diverse state. miami area 15% of those voting tonight latinos. military communities up in jacksonville. retirees more moderate independents, 15% latinos. let's take a look at what we know about this electorate tonight. nearly 10% unemployment in the state of florida. so it is no surprise the number one issue to those voting in today's florida republican presidential primary by far the economy. 62% say the economy. 24% say the budget deficit. 6% say abortion is the most important issue. only 3% say illegal immigration. so this in a state with 9% unemployment the economy is driving the debate. let's take a closer look at this. as these republicans went to the polls we asked them what's your family's financial situation in economy issue number one 58%. 29% say they're falling behind, only 13% are opt missic saying their family finances are getting ahead. perhaps no surprise this is another major problem. foreclosure, the housing issue in florida has been a problem throughout 50% of the voters today say foreclosures in their community are a major problem, 32% say a minor problem. 15% say not a problem at all. let's walk back over this way and show you why the economy is such a big issue. if you look through the demographics here and look at the current unemployment here, the darker the area the higher the unemployment rates 9.9% state-wide. show you why republicans think this is a battle ground come november. this is when president obama took office. shade of green, fairly dark state. watch as we come forward here. one of the reasons republicans think they can get into the state, wolf, and do very well and why this primary is so important that we already saw that 45% of voters today say their number one test can their candidate, can the republican candidate they pick today beat barack obama in november. this is why. the economy has been punished there. and florida republicans, wolf, think this is a state they can take back come november. >> that's a good point, john. excellent point. i want to go inside some of the voting polls. polling places right now to see the voting as it's happening with our ballot cameras, john zarrella is joining us from lithian, florida. shannon travis in panama city beach. shannon, you just met two very interesting voters. what did they say to you? >> absolutely, wolf. two voters just moments ago who were walking out of this precinct, precinct 8 here in panama city beach. one of them was a 72-year-old man who said he's lived in the area for ten years. i asked who did you vote for. he said ron paul. you know wolf, that's interesting because ron paul hasn't been actively competing in florida. certainly not in this area that's heavily republican area. i asked him if he thought that his vote would have an impact seeing as though dr. paul is not campaigning here. he said yes that it's a vote for smaller government, ending the fed and liberty. and the other person you mentioned that was interesting was a woman. her name was jeanne toms. a mother. she had her son. she said going into this polling location she couldn't make up her mind who to actually vote for. . that's one vote for mitt romney. hopefully some of mitt romney's other supporters are coming here with a little bit more form of support. wolf? >> shannon, thanks very much. john zarrella is in the largest precinct in hillsborough county where tampa is. what's the scene like over there, john? i don't know if you can hear me, john. if you can't hear me let me repeat the question. >> reporter: wolf, in lithia just south of the tampa area -- >> all right, john. >> reporter: that's right. hills broi county. this is the largest republican precinct, precinct 701, in hillsborough county. 3800 registered republicans here. when we talked to the supervisor -- okay. when we talked to the supervisor of elections he was telling us they expected a very good turnout today. and in fact, they had about 800 people as of 4:30 vote here. but a big turnout now tonight here. a lot of people coming in at the last -- in the last hour, wolf. so they do hope that they can get to about 1200 people. then when you factor in all of the absentee ballots and factor in the early voting, county-wide they're expecting perhaps 40% of the 232,000 registered republicans to actually have cast ballots in this primary. when we talked to a lot of the people here, wolf, one of the things that they were telling me was, many of them said, you know what? we came with one idea of who we were going to vote for. but at the end of the day we wanted to vote for the safe candidate and the candidate that we felt was more equipped to beat barack obama at the end of the day. not necessarily their first choice, but the person they thought would have the most likely impact in the general election, the best chance of beating barack obama. wolf? >> electability a key issue, john zarrella on the scene for news florida. let's go back to john. >> as you know mitt romney and newt gingrich in florida, rick santorum and ron paul are not waiting around in florida for the results tonight. our correspondents are waiting with them in nevada. top of the hour where most polling places close and the first votes will start to come in. 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[whoosh, clang] you need lifelock, the only identity theft protection company that now monitors bank accounts for takeover fraud. lifelock: relentlessly protecting your identity. call 1-800-lifelock or go to lifelock.com today. on my , i've learned that when you ask someone in texas if they want "big" savings on car insurance, it's a bit like asking if they want a big hat... ...'scuse me... ...or a big steak... ...or big hair... i think we have our answer. geico. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance. most of the polls will close at the top of the hour in florida, 7:00 p.m. eastern. all of them will close at 8:00 p.m. eastern. at that point we'll be able to release final exit poll numbers, also maybe project a winner. we're standing by for that. ron paul and rick santorum have essentially given up on florida. they're in nevada tonight looking ahead to the caucuses this coming saturday. dana bash is over at santorum headquarters. joe johns is over at ron paul headquarters. first joe, why isn't ron paul in florida? >> reporter: well, he just couldn't compete in florida quite frankly. the advertising cost too much. it's a winner take all state as you know. all the delegates go to whoever the winner is. the ron paul campaign looked at it and just saw themself putting a whole bunch of money into florida and frankly not getting anything out of it. figured they'd come out here to places like colorado, nevada, and try to work it. particularly in nevada where it's a caucus state and ron paul can use some of his organizing skill to try to get at least a proportion of the delegates for the republican national convention as opposed to a winner take all situation like in florida, wolf. >> how confident are they in nevada? >> reporter: you know, nevada is very tricky for the ron paul campaign. number one, there are a lot of mormons out here. and four years ago mitt romney got something like 95% of that vote. he actually won the nevada caucuses by 51%. so it's a risk for ron paul. but they figure they might as well try to get some delegates out here as opposed to the situation in other states where they could end up with nothing at all and just spend a lot of money. >> stand by for that. we'll get back to you, joe. we'll be watching what's going on where you are at ron paul headquarters. let's go to dana bash over at rick santorum headquarters. at least on this night in las vegas, dana, what do we expect from the santorum folks tonight? >> reporter: well, we expect the senator to come here. in fact we're