we'll look at big stories. give you interesting details and go inside information, only a worldwide news organization like cnn can bring to you every single day. we're going to talk to the leaders and newsmakers and also real folks and challenge some of the conventional looks and issues people are discussing today. the "starting point" this morning is about changing minds in iowa. just 36 hours before the caucuses begin, and it is a statistical dead heat for first place between presidential candidates mitt romney and ron paul, and that means the race for third is on between rick santorum and rick perry, newt gingrich and michele bachmann as well. the good news for them, more than 40% of iowan voters say their minds could be changed. got some breaking news to get to this morning. police are speaking to a person of interest right now in the los angeles arson spree. even as eight more fires were set overnight, surveillance videotape, show you this, shows the person officers wanted to speak to. we'll bring you more on this story as more information is coming in to us as well. we also have information on a manhunt under way in washington for a man accused of murdering a mount rainier park ranger. visitors are now being escorted out of the park by police. and in virginia, voters are being told they have to pledge to support the republican nominee, if they want to vote in the republican primaries. they say it's not exactly legally binding. their vote is nobody else's business, so why bother? we'll ask that question as well. hello, everyone. it is another great day in south carolina. >> is it truly another great day in south carolina? lawmakers are haggling over that. that's our "get real" segment coming up in a moment plus joined by some of the country's top political minds. it is going to be a great day. and engaging and very interesting two hours for you. our "starting point" begins right now. -- captions by vitac -- www.vitac.com and welcome from the waveland cafe, you could call it a local hangout in iowa. a diner. a local pit stop for its specialty, the everything hash browns. toe mate oh green peppers, mushrooms, ham, swiss and american cheese. it sound delicious. it cannot be good for you. our "starting point" is one day before the iowa caucuses. it really is all about the folks who are uncertain. here's exactly how the race looks right now. the des moines register poll, historically a reliable poll shows mitt romney in the lead at 24%. behind him, ron paul at 22% and in third, rick santorum at 15%. since the first candidate stepped in to campaign, rick santorum, by the way, and since then one of the strangest races ever seen. five different leaders since the beginning of the campaign. bachmann leading, perry leading, cain leading and perry leading. with just 36 hours to go before the caucuses begin it could be anyone's game. here's why. 41% of potential caucusgoers could be swayed to vote for another candidate. it's not just the voters who can't make up their minds. top iowa republicans are holding back on endorsements as well. republican governor and representative grassley and representative king uncommitted. will not make an endorsement it is wide open and depends who turns out rcht i haven't seen it with the clarity i want to see. >> you'll end up with three or four people that are going to be between 17 and 23%, and four people can go out of here saying that he have a ticket to new hampshire. >> an endorsement that could make a difference is one coming from iowa congressman steve king, evangelical christian, member of the tea party caucus. nice to you have and be here in your state, sir. thanks for being with us this morning. explain to my, why all the volatility? what's it about? >> the way to characterize this race, soledad, a series of "king of the him." >> for a minute each time? >> even tim po lawlenty. he got to the straw poll and the morning after decided to pull the plug on his race. he was favored going in and finished, i think, third and pulled out of the race, and michele bachmann won the straw poll. sh she got maybe five minutes, rick perry jumped in in the middle, and the cycle goes on. >> it looks like this. it you're falling. so why? what explains the volatility? >> well, "king of the hill" explains it. if you're at the top of the hill, everybody has to try to pull you down, and your negatives get illuminated and a lot of scrutiny goes on. if you have five or six people trying to pull you off the hill, eventually they do that, someone else takes the top of the hill. what mitt romney has done, he's hung around. he hasn't actually claimed the top of the hill and decide head was going to own it until about now. >> how much of it is that the voters just feel, ah, about the candidate? there's no real love for somebody really emerging? >> they have been going shopping. look at a candidate and think, i like all of these things about them, but it isn't all the things i want to see in the next president of the united states. so it holds some of them backish and it's true. of course, we don't have a perfect candidate, but we could make a perfect candidate out of the candidates that are there, and that's the difference. there is -- it isn't all embodied in one. >> which would be what? what's the perfect candidate? the what of newt gingrich? the what of mitt romney? >> i go this way. if i want the consummate executive i know the trains will run on time who has an executive office in business and in the political world, that's mitt romney. he will run the shop and it will be efficient. if you want somebody who understands the full flow of history, how all of government works, not just a smaller executive branch works but all of government, that's newt gingrich. newt gingrich was brilliant and he'll bring a lot of things to the table, and he'll change the game. he is a game-changer. a little risk with a game-changer, but can you do glorious things and ron paul, significant credit for what he's done for constitutional. cutting spending down, through all that. his weak spot is this idea of national defense being, bring all of our military back to the united states. the vacuum, power, created globally would be a calamity that americans would pay for, and we could never recover from such a decision and a president could make that decision unchecked. rick santorum, he's very, very strong on constitutionalism, life and families, and he's very good and very knowledgeable about the radicalism component in the world. he'd be strong in both of those categories. not as good an understanding of economics. he hasn't lived it the way others have. michele bachmann checks all of the boxes for me. she gets all of these pieces right. >> except -- >> the traction in the campaign is harder, and that's kind of where it stands. >> you going to endorse somebody? >> at this point i haven't made a decision -- >> on our monday morning show? >> it would have been really nice to have had that epiphany and made that endorsement. it has to be a conviction. until then, i'm not able to do that. >> thanks for talking to us. let's bring in our panelists to talk about what the congressman just raised. alex is joining us, republican consultant and simon conway, a radio host. you've interviewed, simon, every candidate september huntsman who moved on to -- >> snarkiness goes both ways. the candidate himself was also being snarky about your fine state. >> absolutely. apparently he only wants to be president of 49 states. i find that strange. as for congressman king, saving his endorsement for when on my show this afternoon. >> you know that will kill me, if you do that, sir. what congressman king has said, though, is that there is a problem. there is no 100% right candidate. there are a lot of kind of okay candidates, and if you could piece them all together, one great candidate, which ron brownstein you cannot do, is this typical? >> shakespeare? i think actually this race has been obviously volatile. probable more than any other republican race since 1964. volatile that it makes sense in a structured way. proceeding on two tracks. >> really contradictory. >> proceeded down two tracks explaining the volatility. mitt romney a front-runner, but modest. done well with more moderate, more secular elements of the party. here as nationally, and then you have the other part of the party, tea party activists, evangelical christian side, dubious but not able to settle lastingly on one alternative to him. and the real volatility that half of the party, dubious of romney, cycling through alternatives from huckabee and palin who didn't run. and cain, gingrich and santorum. his advantage, rising very late, clear momentum. i don't any anybody would be surprised if he gets to the top here and almost too late for a candidate convincingry to be made out of iowa. but you still have two separate tracks in the race, and the romney i think, would be very comfortable with an iowa result that sets ub rick santorum rather than rick perry or newt gingrich as the principle alternative for that more conservative block that remains dubious as a pin. >> how much is a fact in have been so many debates. 13 debates. changing that sort of grass roots feel iowa has always had? you talk about, i want to meet the candidate. they mean literally face-to-face and spend quality time? >> the debates actually pulled that away from the people here. too many, personally. but the scrutiny that goes on in the debates is not really real, because it's all in 30-second sound bites. can you have a conversation, a deep conversation about policy in 30 second sound bites. these are very important issues. as for the perfect candidate, there's never a perfect candidate. barack obama wasn't a perfect candidate four years ago. neither was hillary clinton. you never have a perfect candidate. that's aside, because there is no such thing as a perfect human being. they're still waiting to find one, right? >> the debates are very important. the nationalize the republican process. these don't occur just in states. they occur on cable tv. they occur on talk radio. and these candidates have gotten better. there isn't a single one of them on the stage that hasn't improved because of this process. tested in a way they'll find useful. >> the candidates become more ready for primetime, but it sounds like, simon is saying it actually sort of added to the confusion certainly for people here in iowa who want to have a conversation? >> simon, one thing to remember is, we haven't had a vote yet. once somebody wins something, guess whats? they become bigger. they become the center of attention. these things do matter. but, look, campaigns don't pick candidates. they make candidates. that's what these contests do. that's what these debates are important for. so it's a little shapeless now. this all changes tuesday, right here. >> debates enormously changed this race. obviously, much more of a national race. smaller staffs here. the cnn casts, but if rick santorum does as well as seems possible it's a throwback. this was the kind of iowa-specific campaign visiting every county. hundreds of town meetings, kind of like a jimmy carter in the 1970s. still only at 5% nationally in the polls. that was the kind of disparity, the arbitrage that didn't seem possible anymore. voters in the early states of iowa and new hampshire would not settle on a candidate if they didn't seem viable nationally, but rick santorum is, if he does well here, winning this the old-fashioned way. >> i remember rick santorum standing up before a meeting in rock rapids i, iowa, the southwest corner of the state months and months ago. laid it out. this is what i'm going to do. earn this the old-fashioned way. it's what we've seen. i want to add into your comment that these campaigns, and this process, this is a gauntlet they go through. and it does -- >> talks about the willowing out. >> it shapes the candidates and tests them in a lot of ways. can they raise the money? do they have the stamina? can they connect with people? will their ideas withstand the scrutiny or one thing that knocks them out. it's very personal. >> the issues in iowa issue the nation as a whole sdmept iowa reducing the debt is at top of list and in the nation, the economy generally is at the top. number two is the deficit and number three is health care. are these issues in that order, because iowa -- is iowa doing better than overstates in the nation? >> yeah, iowa's doing belted eb that other states in the nation. unemployment is better. there's a feel about that. on the conservative side, also, we're very much a tea party state, and people have to understand that. the three issues for the tea party are very, very specific. stop spending our mun, balance the budget, cut taxes to create jobs where they can be created. it's simplistic. i don't know why the president isn't onboard with that. it's so obvious. >> you know, it feels this year as though the republican party broadly defined has settled on their agenda and auditioning candidates to implement it rather than, looking for a candidate to set a direction for the party. some amorphous blend of -- the party knows where it wants to go. that's why so much of the debate has been about who is an authentic conservative? all of the candidates have risen and fallen among that morphed conservative block. inevitably what's happened, one or two things in their record comes up, clashing the group and the whole edifice comes down. a very difficult, being a republican, so far, at the presidential level, to convince the tea party side which starts off skeptical of the republican establishment that you can really trust me. that contributed a lot, really remarkable. six different candidates ahead in the national polls. we haven't seen anything like that in decades. >> i want to bring -- before i let you talk for a second, sir, the editor of thomson reuters digital and join itus, a remoten new york. look at landscape and the vol tiltingy in the national polls not only here in iowa what we're been talking about. debt is a big issue he in iowa and in the top three nationally. who does that help and who does that hurt? >> soledad, you made an important point about the economy and how it play s slightly different in iowa than the rest of country, a slightly different accent. the fact is that iowa is doing economically relatively well. we're accustomed to these melodramas about the hardships on the family farm, but the truth is that right now, it's great to run a family farm. commodity prices are booming. globalization is terrific for the iowan economy. so i think that means that questions of unemployment, which are figuring more prominently in the rest of country are lower down on the agenda in iowa, and as simon was saying what people in iowa are really focused on when it comes to the economy, basically not wanting everybody else to put the country in debt, force them potentially in the future to pay higher taxes. >> thanks. we're going to say. >> bye to congressman king who has a busy day. literally sprinting around as you wrap up your last 36 hours or so and you'll let me know when you endorse. >> thank you very much. >> we're going to ask or panelists to stick around as we continue our conversations. our next topic, talking about democrats. going on the attack? used word, more room. and you may be surprised who they're going after. we're going to talk to the dnc coming up. and it might be up to lawmakers to decide. squabbling over a greeting. what's right, what's wrong? we'll let you decide. and tell you about the loyalty pledge that people want you to sign. is that even legal? we'll ask. we're back right after this. 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[ male announcer ] new bengay cold therapy. the same technology used by physical therapists. go to bengay.com for a $3 coupon. i think we should see other people. in fact, i'm already seeing your best friend, justin. ♪ i would have appreciated a proactive update on the status of our relationship. who do you think i am, tim? quicken loans? at quicken loans, we provide you with proactive updates on the status of your home loan. and our innovative online tools ensure that you're always in the loop. one more way quicken loans is engineered to amaze. it's waveland diner you're looking at. we are inside doing our show this morning. welcome to "starting point." i'm soledad o'brien. they're on the attack. opened war rooms in des moines yesterday. a quote. a home base for all rapid response activities. i am not making up that phrase. straight in the democratic national committee, holding news conferences in order to counter republican talking points until january 4th. like yesterday, a man laid off from mitt romney's company bought his employer. the democrats' strategy? joins us to talk about that, communications director for the democratic national committee. thanks for joining us. >> thank you very much. congratulations on the show. >> appreciate it. thank you. why a war room? doesn't that seem a little over the top considering no one's really, really, caucusing for the -- >> we may have useded roth title, but we are very proud of what the president's campaign has on the ground here. i think when this is said and done you'll see the plaed more organization on the ground here than all of the other campaigns. no matter who wins this caucus on tuesday night. the president's put a campaign on the ground here. we've had 350,000 phone calms, 1,200 meetings, 401 meetinging with is a or theers and are proud of that and here to correct the record. there's a lot of non-republicans here. we're not going to let mitt romney's followers get away without telling the truth. >> you view this as a very good thing for democrats? >> a lot of discussion. we think what we've seen on the ground is counter and a lack of enthusiasm for a republican nominee. they have the flavor of the month. we now have rick santorum. we've had newt gingrich. we've had cain. we've had perry, we've had bachmann and then we've had the flav e of the month and then mitt romney, if he's a flavor, he's stale. kind of stuck -- >> nice going back and forth on this. who does obama want to win? >> we think in the end the president's record will prevail in the eviction. >> people always say that. >> look, the president will not run against anyone if he had his -- >> who would he choose of the list out there now? >> we're not about to do that, try to puck their nominee. all of them subscribe to the same economphilosophy that got o the mess of 2008. going back to doing what caused the economic collapse. >> what's the campaign's biggest worry? >> the worry here in iowa? >> yeah. what's your biggest concern? your biggest challenge? >> well i don't think we have a concern on our side. we're very happy with what we've put on the ground here in terms of our organization. and we think that iowa's going to be back in the president's camp. look, we've met with 4,000 people one-on-one. an unprecedented thing. campaigns cut to the quick. they do phone calls, focus groups, polls. we're meeting with people one-on-one and that's a key win for the state. >> thank you. >> appreciate it. coming up, what if it's not a great day in south carolina? some interesting volunteer whose want to outlaw a state mandated greeting. we'll talk about it in our "get real" segment coming up next. life with crohn's disease is a daily game of "what ifs." what if my stomach pain and cramps end our night before it even starts? what if i eat the wrong thing? what if... what if i can't make it through dinner and a movie? what if i suddenly have to go? what if... but what if the most important que