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in second place? it would be evangelical voters in the northwest here. the darker the county, the higher percentage of evangelical voters. a different map to nikki haley. she wants to appeal to independents and moderates. 99 counties in iowa. joe biden won six of them. these are the counties where nikki haley might have the most fertile ground. they include poke county, and dorrie county where iowa state university is and other college towns here. this is what to look for, wolf, as the night goes on. >> we'll be looking together with you. you'll be busy. still to come, following all of the final pitches by republican candidates in this first big event of the republican race for the white house. ron desantis' showing in iowa potentially could be a turning point in this campaign. his deputy campaign manager will join us. that's coming up next. it's not just iowa.

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CNN News Central

"the des moines register" poll asked caucusgoers what party they were in. 5% say democrats and 3% independents. they can vote as long as they register as republicans at the caucus site. this is not an insignificant amount. where are they in iowa? to figure that out, let's go to the counties in iowa. joe biden, the democrat. he won six of them. but they are populous counties. they include where des moines is. they include university towns like ames where iowa state is, iowa city, where the university of iowa is. these have the highest level of education, by and large, these counties do. i can put up this filter right here. and you can see, the darker areas have the greatest percentage of noncollege educated voters. lighter, college educated. you can see, all these light

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Decision 2024 Primaries Caucuses

vote for her as well as independents. that's a good percentage. she's doing the best among those groups. as unappealing as he can be, in the most diplomatic of ways, vivek ramaswamy is truly barred from the state. he's done a whopping 303 events an all 99 counties. of course, there is ad spending which nikki haley is outspending everyone else. she's been reporting about $3 million a week into tv ads. but one factor of course that none of them control is mother nature. she's making it very cold air right now. >> and shout out to mother nature, weather is one -- >> she's been making her presence known. >> not only her presence, but she is reminding us all that we are just human beings. and candidates can't control the weather, not even a president. tonight's turn up, as you probably heard, it's become a question of enthusiasm and weather preparation. >> these are icicles that just got cooked -- >> look what we did. >> 35 minutes in negative 60-degree weather here in iowa.

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Americas Choice 2024 Iowa Caucuses

means for turnout? >> let me show you where the weather could have an impact in iowa. everywhere! the entire state, the deep yellow here is where there are windchill warnings, the pale yellow, winter weather advisories. it's just everywhere and they are forecasting temperatures really low like -14, that's without the windchill, davenport, -16. so which candidates will this affect the most? you can say well it could impact donald trump, the latest polls have him way ahead, maybe he has the most voters to spare and on the other hand they may take his lead for granted and not show up. what about ron desantis, in the same poll from the des moines register, 62% of ron desantis supporters say they will definitely attend the caucus. 56% for donald trump, 51% for nikki haley. the issue for ron desantis though they are committed, is where they might be in the state. he's making a big play for evangelical voters. everywhere you see on this map with the darker colors, who has the greatest percentage of

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Special Report With Bret Baier

never participated before to head out and brave those freezing temperatures in iowa. what we are seeing tonight, this shows the percentage of first time attend years among each candidate supporters. 1/3 of ramaswamy and haley supporters are attending their first caucus. it's almost 3 in 10 for donald trump. desantis brought in fewer new folks, despite visiting all 99 counties in a state. all right. so one last tid bit tonight, looking ahead, will republicans be able to unite and support their party's nominee no matter who it is or will they be guided in november? this is another top finding right now about three in 10 iowa republicans say they would be so dissatisfied with desantis and haley as their candidate they would not vote for them in november, while 20 in 10 say the same about donald trump. and, get, this nearly 7 in 10 haley voters say they wouldn't back trump if he is the g.o.p.

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Decision 2024 Primaries Caucuses

percentage of people in iowa who seem to hear trump saying i'll be a dictator and be like that is smi guy. so if you are haley, how do you calculate that in terms of needing to differentiaentiate yourself? >> anybody who has run a campaign know this is, you can tell voters what you want to them or you can meet voters where they are. and bottom line is republican voters think that, and this is national polls and also in the iowa register poll, that donald trump is the strongest candidate to beat joe biden. that all the legal cases are bunk. do not believe that he will be treated fairly. so whether he is found guilty or not, they see this is all just a sham. so you can make that case until you are blue in the face, but it won't help. convince voters who already

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CNN Newsroom With Jim Acosta

to vote, donald trump had the same percentage of the vote as he does among the probable to vote. the fact is this particular poll there's never been an error in the poll large enough going back to the first des moines register poll, any error even close to large enough to indicate donald trump is heading close to anything other than a massive win. >> and i know from covering these campaigns the des moines register poll is basically the cold standard when it comes to these polls right before the iowa caucuses. how predictive is it historically? let's look at this historically. best iowa showings, george w. bush in 2000 -- help us out here. >> these are the final results. george w. bush with 41% in 2000, donald trump obviously at 48% ahead of that. i'll also note in the final des moines register poll we were talking about, he was at 43% which was the best showing ever in that pre-election poll.

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Ayman

people in the army. so, the issue of intent was there for us. i think people must adjust on this particular case. -- we'll be able to accept criticism, but we cannot say that because you may not have done enough in instances that in this instance, when you have a textbook case of genocide unfolding, when you have the worst humanitarian, one at the worst humanitarian situations unfolding. in fact, with the percentage of civilian deaths is perhaps the worst in the last 100 years, not a total numbers but the percentage of civilian deaths, in total numbers, the number of journalists, for example, killed is more than the number of journalists killed and world war ii. the severity of what is

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CNN Republican Debate Des Moines Iowa

federal power ends the day i become the president of the united states. there's going to be a new sheriff in town. we're going to restore the constitutional accountability that our founding fathers envisioned when they formatted the constitution. and you know, i've talked to folks who have overbearing federal agencies. you have farmers who have the epa coming on their farmland because there's maybe a puddle there, waters of the united states. give me a break. so we're going do reduce the size of government, but we're also going to reduce the scope of government. and in florida, i've delivered on this. florida has the lowest percentage of state government workers per capita in the country. and the cost of our state government employees is the lowest in the country. no wonder why we're paying down debt while we're cutting taxes for people. that's the wray you do it. >> governor desantis, 15 seconds clarification. whether or not working families would pay the same amount -- >> they would pay less than what they're paying now. the way i view it, okay, and you

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The Saturday Show with Jonathan Capehart

collar islands. your thoughts on that? >> well, i think there's something to that. you know, it's hard to imagine a nikki haley victory without overwhelmingly winning college educated republicans. and they are the ones that have the most doubt about trump. but you know, iowa, the caucuses are very self selecting groups of people, relatively small percentage of republicans in the state participate in the caucus. and it's going to be even more true, probably on a night like monday, when you take your life in your own hands to go out and vote. and so, this has always been a myth that donald trump is a working class candidate, because he's always lost to, he called the working class those at the lower economic spectrum. his best group, in every election are those who make over $100,000 a year. what he's done is well with the white working class. and i think it's really important that we never lose sight of how much race is

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