we're thrilled to welcome important business leader in america but i first must say one of miami beach's most distinguished residents fred hochberg. fred is as most of you know was chairman of the us export import bank for the full tenure of president obama's time inoffice . as a consequence he learned all kinds of lessons he's going to share with us tonight. i'm personally moved by fred's whole story. the story of his mother elaine vernon, somebody i worked with for many years and fred will touch on that when he speaks and how he helped transform frankly her already incredible company into something much larger and more impactful by having a mother of that same generation whose still alive, i'm amazed by that group of women who went off and did extraordinary things and now having made my way through only the first portion of his book, not to steal any of of his thunder but the idea that she bought an advertisement in 17 magazine in 1951 into what was, just moved to me deeply and he may tell you about the impact of the ad itself so with that please point me in welcoming fred hochberg [applause] >> jonathan, thank you. my purpose will be much more casual, i'll be sitting on the sofa, no, all these other people sitting on the sofa, not just me. my book was published 10 days ago and as john mentioned, books and books is selling them in the back and it makes a spectacular gift, if you can't find a gift for someone in your life this will fill it and i hope to convince you of that inthe next 15 minutes or so . i'll start with since jonathan heated up in the introduction of the book, i think about global trade and going beyond was my mother, she came to this country, lillian vernon, that was not her birth name. she decided enough of changing my name over and over again, i'm going to take the name of my company so she became a lillian vernon after divorce number three but they left germany in 1933, moved to amsterdam the same year that anne frank left frankfurt and moved to amsterdam and they were about the same age. but my grandfather had decided he left his business behind that he was going to, he knew he had to leave europe and he was a businessman so he had some means and they lived in palestine. then they lived in havana and then he came to new york. and summoned my grand mother and two children and my grandmother went to renew their visa and they were not originally pieces in 1937 but i'm sure if they let you get on the boat they would let you get off the boat so they arrived in 1937, mymother was 10 . her brother who was drafted into the u.s. army and sent back to germany to fight and died there in 1944 at 20 years old and his name was six free. thankfully when they came to this country they changed his name to fred and they called me fred as opposed to sing freed or anything else. it's just fred thank god and not sing freed which would not have been enjoyable to go through life with a name like siegfried so how i got the idea for writing this book, i was the longest-serving chairman of the import export bank and that bank briefly was started by fdr in 1934 to support more jobs because he realized during the depression one of the ways was to export more goods and we needed a bank to do so. so a twist of fate, the first time the bank was chartered was to sell things to russia. the deal fell through so then they rechartered the bank and the very firsttransaction was minting american silver in philadelphia into coins for the government of cuba . of course, since then the export import bank is barred from doing any business with you about so it's ironic that the first transaction was with cuba andit is now off-limits . so that experience of working for president obama for years and our job was to finance us exports, to support us jobs just as it was in 1934 and what occurred to me over that eight-year period to 2017 was what happened to trade? what happened to the conversation about trade? when did trade get to besuch a four letter word ? and i was then offered when i left the administration to give, to become a fellow at the institute of politics at the university of chicago and you teach of course the students and the students interview you to decide if you're going to be interesting enough and let's be clear, if i decide to teach a course on resetting america's trade agenda in the 20th century nobody would be in this room much less a classroom of 20-year-olds or the export import bank . they would put me to sleep so i had to come up with what would be catchy that would get a 19 or 20-year-old might want to take time of their day to come and i came up with this title and i learned in the direct marketing business you have to have a strong beginning, the middle can be okay and a strong ending so i made sure that we had a couple of great speakers at the very first two classes, larry summers was one of them and wrote them in so people think you miss a great class, you've got to come next week so hence that. a few overarching things. the title of the book is "trade is not a four letter word", how sick every day products make the case for trade and when i tried to do is tell the story of trade, how it impacts your life and then it's him important part of your life and yet so easily mischaracterized and misunderstood and a little bit out at our peril but one of the things , i'll give you the take away in the beginning in case you fall asleep or want to leave early, trade has winners and losers and politicians are very good at never wanting to acknowledge that . some people win, some people lose this country of taking car of people who lost out. people whose lives were disrupted, whose sense of self-esteem, their communities were emptied out and we did a bad job of acknowledging that. and many economists say we are creating 1,000,000 and a half jobs a year , so if some counties get lost by trade even if it's 20 or25,000, that's nothing . that is nothing unless you're one of those 25,000 people. and a lot of that was concentrated in places like ohio , wisconsin, michigan and pennsylvania, and that's a very smart group. what do those four states have in commonevery four years ? every four years they have something in common and i think that's funny when it came to trade, very much in our american psyche. for such a long time and here we are in miami beach. it is not a surprise that a lot of that human population is in miami in florida. florida has been a battleground state and our cuba policy, a lot of it has to do with the geography of where humans live in this country. so geography has a lot to do with the trade issue and politics and many people on both coasts have enjoyed all the benefits of trade and we haven't had a first-hand experience of where it's been hurtful, where it's hollowed out communities and disrupted family lives so that's one of the things i talk about in the book, i don't want to give you all the answers because i don't want to ruin the ending. another thing is we have a lot of talk about trade deals like the transpacific partnership or us mca or the china deal. trade deals are really not about jobs. they are about labor rights and about intellectual property, there are about dispute resolution, and there are about a lot of things, they're not reallyabout jobs . i'll give you an example. in the transpacific partnership to the united states and 11 other countries on the pacific, it is a 5000 page document which i would not recommend. it does not read like anovel . the word jobs appears six times. two of the six times are because it's the name of the australian and japanese labor department so there are four references to jobs in 5000 pages . global oil, that has 11 mentions it's just a case in point, there's not a lot of jobs and if you look at what nafta was designed to do in 1994, jobs had nothing to do with it. so trade is about jobs, exports are about jobs but not trade deals and one of the things were also looking at now and i'm happy to address this in the q&a is we the united states have taken a sort of we want to work with our partners and john phillips is here and i remember being at john and linda's home in italy and there were some films you showed about world war ii that a number of filmmakers had, and you look at them, devastation of world war ii and the united states took a leadership role in forming things from nato, the organization from economic cooperation and development, the wto was then but it was spoke out and all these ways were to find ways we can work together to make sure something is horrible as world war ii never happened again . we are in a period now where you are pursuing a policy in the united states of much more unilateral. it's our way or the highway. you're going to take our view or not. it's a different way that we operated were close to 70 years. it seems to work, it's the style of this president but it is not the style we've used in the past to get things done so let me give you a flavor of a couple of products. i don't know, does anybody in this room? i use the iphone in this book but first let me ask, who did 10,000 steps today? very good. i know judy, you did 15. how many steps today with mark 15. >> so the iphone, and the reason i put the iphone is to talk about what's called bilateral trade deficits, something our president is obsessed with . so the iphone was designed in the united states. the rare minerals that are used for the circuitry come from rwanda and the democratic republic of the congo. the chip that measures judy steps comes from the netherlands. the gyroscope that you can turn this way or sideways and it's always proper comes out ofswitzerland . the main mechanism of the phone actually comes from samsung, their biggest competitor inkorea . a glass which i frequently crack comes from corning new york. so this would not have existed a global trade, without a sense of trade,, we would not have aniphone . it is assembled in china and as a result this is considered by the world, not just the united states as a chinese import. so it comes to the united states, apple is very preparatory, big surprise. they cost about $230 or an iphone comes to the state and sells for about $1000 area of the $230, $8.46, something less than $10 actually goes to china. and yet, people $230 for a phone or about 16, $18 billion a year of our trade deficit with china is the iphone and yet a very small portion comes from china so i use that example to say this is not a very good way to look at a bilateral trade deficit which the president is obsessed with and i put in the book , i have a barber in washington when i lived there for eight years named homer, i took a picture has been and put it ontwitter . i run a substantial trade deficit with homer on an annual basis. he buys nothing fromme . i'm okay with it and he seems fine with it as well so we can get very hung up on a trade deficit. when you go to the gas station you put 20 or $30 of gas in your car, you ran a deficit but you got 20 or $30 worth of gas so we get a lot of productsfrom china and it helped us keep inflation down . yes, china has not been agood actor . yes, china takes advantage of the rules. yes, they overly subsidize their companies, the state owned enterprises as they're called and we need to address those issues but they're not really avillain . we as the global community need to find ways to put them in line but this fixation, this obsession about bilateral trade deficits is wrongheaded and part of it is wrongheaded because if you look at the china deal that was talked about in the state of the union that were going to listen toor hear 10 days from now , we will hear how this is the best trade deal ever done. the most, i can't think of too many superlatives to describe it, but it's really a purchase agreement and it's a purchase agreement because we got so concerned about the bilateral trade deficit that that's what the deal is not and having run the export import bank for president obama i'm all for annex or $200 billion worth of exports, that's a good thing but that's not what the trade deal is necessarily about so that's one of the things i'm trying to cover in this book is to give us a better understanding of those kinds of issues . so another example i will share with you and then i'll give you one more is the most american car on the road today, it is not a chevrolet. it's not a ford . and it's not a general motors , someone at the back of the room knows. it's a honda odyssey. actually as a quirk, there was a book the week of publication in washington and instead of 75 books they sent 16 books and that was discovered about five hours or so before the book event so they said, they couldn't figure out how to get, because each book did not have that large so they called for and got an over driver to take 50 bucks down the washington and coincidentally it went in a honda odyssey which seems appropriate. so i put the honda odyssey in to make the case for what, we don't even know what an american product is because if you look at the top 20 most american cars on the road, all three are either made by mercedes, honda, acura or japanese companies. the chevrolet corvette which we think of as the most iconic american car comes in at 12 or 13 so we have to just reorient what by american means and of course, the least american car you can probably buy is a chevy mart which is one percent us made. so first of all, in the first foreign manufacturers set up shop in the united states, surprisingly as a research book was gw, 1949, four years after world war ii and they imported a grand total of three vehicles . today, more people are employed by quote unquote foreign markets of automobiles, we have a globalized supply chain and i visited one company in pueblo mexico that makes shock absorbent brake pads and it's one of the reasons from this globalized supply chain i believe that we have saved the american autoindustry . i don't know about you but i remember many a car growing up that either the drawers didn't fit well, thewindows leads . mine use this letter a little bit, you had to turn the engine off for a little bit so it stopped. and as a result, we created lemon laws and the japanese competition in the 80s, we improved the competition, got our cars better and by the century american cars are as good as anything else.it is routine for cars to run over 100,000 miles, is not the case when many of us were growing up. after three or four yearsyou had to trade in your car . so that's an example of where one globalized supply chain and the fact of where these cars are made is very different from today.if you look at the fordmustang for example , thetransmission comes from china . the buick cassava is assembled as a corian transmission and yet it is a buick. the ford 150 truck, the most iconic one is only 56 percent american versus the honda odyssey. so part of it is rethinking what it means to be an american product and i'll close and we can open up with one of my favorite products that's in the book which is the taco bowl and i put this in the book because donald trump made that taco bowl so famous when he had it on cinco de mayo which is more an american holiday and and a mexican holiday and the taco bowl was actually invented at disneyland. a man named c albert doolin was in texas and met a mexican immigrant living there who made taco pies and bought the patent, brought it back to disneyland at a place called taco defreitas and decided to reshape enjoyable and hand hence the taco bowl was invented at disneyland. so many foods, chops and we was invented here, corned beef and cabbage was invented here, many of these products we think of as foreign were invented here and the taco bowl is a perfect example. you cannot have a taco bowl that you can enjoy 365 days a year , kelly began in alaska, maine, texas, california were it not for global trade. we now import 85 percent of our avocados as we are eating so many avocados that we consume more avocados than we do raspberries or asparagus or anything else and for super bowl fans which is just eight days, nine days from now, we will smash 140 million pounds of avocados on that one day. so a lot of guacamole and chips on super bowl sunday so that's what we will see there but the beef, we consume more beef than we produce so we import the beef . let us from the terrible e. coli epidemic we had recently , almost 99 percent of the lettuce in this country comes from arizona so when we have an outbreak like that it's thankful that we have imports that we are able to balance that need and not run out. and don't put in the taco bowl but one of the things i discovered as i was working on this book is the blueberry and blueberries used to be enjoyed, you enjoy them maybe in july, certainly in august, early september and that's it . now we import, half of them come from chile and as a result we consume double the amount of blueberries we did he or 20 years ago because it's part of what we eat every day so the whole importing created the market, it did not destroy a market and just like in the automobile i believe that the import of a foreign car and the quality that they brought actually i believe saved the american auto industry versus left to its own devices so with that i would just open it up for questions and we can make this aconversation . >> yes sir, and who are you? >> i'm a lawyer in miami. [inaudible] >>. >> the reason the export import bank is able to do the job it does is because it provides a government guarantee of loss so if we make a loan, we actually don't even make a loan, we guarantee a loan so you're in the insuranceagency . because the full faith and credit of the united states government is what makesthose loans work because otherwise the private sector would do it . [inaudible] you could say where putting the taxpayer on the hook but an eight years i was there wegenerated in profit , literally a cash transfer from our checking account in the treasury of $3.8 billion, that the excess . >> you're making my argument, it should be a private company. >> we would not be able to do it as a private company. the fact we are able to make loans in areas and it's funny, what borrowers need frequently as the backing of the us government and frequently , in the specifications requires what they callexport credit agency support . if you don't have that backing you have a noncompliant bid . let me say this, 98, 99 percent of the trade in this country is done by the private sector. this is only dealing with that which the private sector cannot or is unwilling to do and just to give you the data point, china has four banks that do the work of our export import bank and in 2 years , they generated the amount of loans that it took some back 80 years to do so if we really want to compete with china, if we got want to go toe to toe with competitors like china, japan, korea, that's what's required. we may not like it, in an ideal world we don't need it but i haven't found an ideal perfect world . yes. judy. [inaudible] you mentioned tpp and the question of the china deal that was the trade deal thatwas just completed . both administrations were there for using trade as an instrument of policy . so if you acknowledge that the products are a useful thing and the benefit of globalization as such, what is your take on trade becoming used as a policy tool rather than what you just asserted its real value is. >> i think trade has often been a policy tool. it does bring countries together. i saw this firsthand atthe export import bank , building rail systems, transportation systems together with us companies, us workers and those countries create much better ties with those countries than others so certainly trade is important. right now we're also using trade as a weapon and that is , we are threatening tariffs in europe unless they sign on with iran. in the past been to find things we can do together to find common ground versus as a club to exclude. prime minister modi didn't like criticism of muslims and he cut off buying from asia. trade can be weapon eyes that way, it's probably not, i think there are better uses of it. i remember visiting pakistan as the chairman of the bank and the pakistani business community was more anxious to find ways to do business with india and in many ways felt it might take the edge off the hostility if they can find ways to trade that seems very far away that at this point. now, linda is one of the people in this room who is unhappy with me the cause she wanted me to write a memoir and i wrote this bookinstead . so if you'llforgive me . [inaudible] >> one of the things, there's a cartoonist named nick stevens who lives here in miami and i remembered this cartoon that he drove in 1994, 95. and i had cut it out and i've always meant to track him down because i love the correct original cartoons and it shows a factory worker on a pay phone, 1994 and 95 and he says i don't know, i was in flint michigan, i heard this diet sucking sound and now i'm sitting in new mexico. so quick story about nick stevens, i called the new yorker, nobody answers the phone anymore. i tracked him down and said we usually own the copyright but we don't on his copyright so i go to the website and i emailed a few friends and it turns out mick stevens lived about 20 blocks away. we met at a coffee shop, i asked him to redraw the drawing, he drew it and i bought the drawing and the reason i tell you that story is because ross perot using that line, thatgiant sucking sound really stuck . and that's, this was the nafta was removed up by ronald reagan because he was concerned about a united europe becoming much too much of accommodation for the united states and was concerned we would not be able to compete effectively against a united europe it would become the european union so it was started by ronald reagan, negotiated by george bush but it happens with president clinton to get it through congress and people think of nafta and president clinton but it had another presence to get there. so i think that image of ross perot captured people because it was a sortof potent term . we had a lot of disruption. we had a lot of innovation and automation and has been very disruptiveto jobs . so it's hard to separate that from trade and i think the other reason is some of the places that were hit the hardest without really support to get back on their feet were places that were key states, battleground states in presidential elections so it has come up every 4 years as a result of that that's one reason nafta and trade really did a lot of it comes from that initial trade deal in 1994. >> the new agreement, i'm sorry. i am very bullish onthe new agreement for a couple of reasons . number one, 385 members of congress and 89 members of the senate voted for it. we have never had an overwhelming report on both sides of the aisle for a trade deal so that in and of itself, because in the book if you're going to have trade deals that passed by one vote , it's so divisive and it fits people against each other's and i don't think that's healthy for us so the fact that this had such overwhelming support , it is the first trade deal at the afl-cio supports so that gives it a lot of. it changes what will be the base minimum for future trade deals. and one of the aspects of it is that if a company is not allowing workers to organize and they are found to be in violation, their goods can be stopped at the border so get that gives it much more teeth and it has in terms of making labor feel like this is a more level playing field. but i would say that the detail, i think the politics of it with such an overwhelming vote on both the house and senate, is what gives me hope and change about it. and i think the fact that donald trump is such a protectionist, it gave somewhat of an oddly covered, number of even democrats, we have the most protectionist president ever.i can't be much more protectionist because he's gone right to the wall so you have people likesharon brown , i don't think they ever supported trade deal before but they support this one and lastly i would say nancy pelosi bravely knew how to navigate this through congress and make sure she got that support so there would not be such division. >> thank you for the valentines idea. my wife is very excited already. >> it's better than a washing machine. >> he said more the word more in the news this year than any is carrots, would you send some light on when they are issued, who really pays it, where the money goes . >> nine part question. so actually, just a quick history because i had fun with this. the first bill passed by the continental congress was a terrorist because we had to pay the word yet so from the founding of this country until 1913 when we had an income tax, that's how we funded the government, through tariffs. and they can be very distorted so in some ways we discarded largely the idea of the terrace as a tool of revenue raising or public policy and its reared its head with smooth holly and other things under the depression but basically they're somewhat on the discarded idea that we decided to revive and renovate in the 21st century. so there is a chapter in your , let's be clear. we pay the terrace. when the goods are imported and there's a 10 percent levy , the importer, the manufacturer or the retail store or whatever have to send a check to the internal revenue service and the tax service for 10 percent, up to 25 percent is what president trump has talked about so it's a very blunt tool. very hard to unwind, but we pay it. sometimes it gets embedded in . companies told me if the therapist five or 10 percent, perhaps we can improve some of our process, maybe get the importer to cut some corners and maybe change quality. it could be some products maybe shipped from steel to glass or plastic so all there are always people are saving costs but make no mistake, we ultimately pay that tariff. we felt we had to protect the shoe industry so there's a tariff that generates $12 million on primarily children's shoes. maybe it's one or two percent, barring the trump tariffs, the one on shoes can go as high as 67 percent and shoes, children's shoes are one thing that you cannot hand me down. nobody in this room would ever think of letting a younger sibling have to wear shoes of their older sibling shoes mold to your feet so it's one thing you don't hand down so we had a tariff that generates $12 billion, its attacks on parenthood so why don't we get rid of it? members of congress they were going to find the $12 billion, they don't want to raise taxes anyplace else so we still maintain that tariff and american families ate at overtime. kathleen. >> you just made a very interesting segue into i think the next general argument. so no question we live in a third world economy where anybody who says we're going to cut off trade is not but there are people who say that. there's a lot of criticism about the new agreement that just made it through with overwhelming voting, no mention of climatechange . basically, no real coming to grips with the fact that this is a lot of corporate protection so pharmaceutical companies get to have a greener product and now we're being charged these astronomical high prices on things that really harm the public good and i don't disagree with you that trade agreements are not trade, but trade agreements are currently negotiated with a lot of corporate power at the table and without a lot of thought about what is the public good and public benefit. how do we change that? how do you advocate for trade which i firmly believe is a part of our 21st-century commerce and not buy into these corporate protectionists agreements which often locked in things that a lot of us don't support oragree with ? >> the democrats i spoke to in congress felt that robert like kaiser, the united states trade representative did a good job actively listening to their concerns and addressing more of them in this agreement that in the past so i agree with you, certainly business, corporate interests tend to have an easier time running how to communicate their direct interest. there are no consumer advocates, there is not a constituent interest group so that is certainly a challenge. the reason i think it's good is because it did give labor much more onboard and it did get a higher voteand we've ever seen before but on the climate issue , i've heard that in the negotiations that a lot of the environmental community wanted in the agreements that us would be committed by law to rejoin the paris accord. there was, i'm told that was not going to getthrough congress . so part of it is also, this is a trade agreement, the us mca negotiated by president trump and a republican administration so it's only going to go so far. it was not negotiated by president obama or someone, or perhaps a more progressive person who would have a stronger interest in addressing those issues. but it was, i think it was the best you could get done at this moment. i think there was a genuine concern of no agreement, i don't think it was real but president from, that's always a possibility. one thing about president trump, he makes sure he always has an exit ramp and nobody else does. he always has an exit ramp for any position he takes but it makes it difficult for other countries or other parties to find thatsame exit ramp . >>. >> could you spend a little time on intellectual property rights specifically as they pertain to most of us here in television? >> absolutely, i mean, thank you for that question because there is a chapter in your on the entertainment industry. there's a whole chapter on game of thrones . the entertainment industry rate about $770 billion, it's one of our largest industries and about $200 billion worth of exports . and i will get that but of the things that concerns me about the trade debate, we're all still talking about cars and trucks and airplanes, always reports but we should be talking about entertainment, education. we should be talking about legal services, financial services, a lot of the things that we excel at and we're never talking about those in it comes to these trade agreements, they seem to be left to their own devices. so the movies we see very much a foreign market in mind when they are created because of a giant portion of that revenue comes from overseas and in china it is very difficult to protect those copyrights area so that is, you know, one of the major issues left undone by the china deal is how we are going to enforce intellectual property. how do we enforce the things that we do best in terms of designing products, ideas, entertainment and making sure they don't get stolen. what they call technology transfer. essentially it's based companies will not sell that the chinese have taken. you cannot buy the coca-cola formula. it's not for sale, there are things companies have you cannot buy and that's what china by forcing equity partners, by forcing partnerships and being able to extract those values out of us companies. we have to address and the third thing with china, intellectual property, tech transfer and the amount of subsidies they provide what are called state owned enterprises. i have a section on glossaries because you will your people talk about gasoline and what are they talking about which is a state owned enterprise and it makes it hard for us companies to compete certainly in china but in the rest of the world. how to be that you have the full force of china and huawei is one example of that . >> 'sprogress being made? >> that's one thing we will see in phase 2 if we get to phase 2. the chinese talk about intellectual property is they been designing their own products and want some protection but were not going to know that for the first few years. going to have to wait and see it does help in or mislead if we get the europeans and japanese and australians and other trading partners to alignwith us , but we have not, that's the problem as i start at the beginning. ifwe act unilaterally it's hard to find that . when i was in london not that long ago doing work on the book, in london and on whitehall street there's a museum underground where winston churchill conducted world war ii . from bunkers and everything else in the course they wanted churchill close and i stumbled on one and i took a picture of it and churchill said the only thing worse than working with allies is working without allies and we are a little bit, it's difficult. when you work with allies, think about working with your family . it would be a lot easier to design on your own, you just might have three or fourother people who are not very happy but finding a place everybody can agree on , the kind of cuisine is challenging and it's the same way internationally so trying to get the europeans and japanese and everybody else to have some agreements, but it also has more resiliency if you do that. and fascism. >> a lot of the negotiations with the iran trade agreements whether it's partnerships or trans-lateral trade are about making things sufficient. . products being sold between companies, for example cars you have your own safety standards and requirements here, they have different ones . how do we come up with sufficiency, their prices are lowered, is easier to do or is it a matter of agriculture, exports or imports that we can rely on and everybody benefits from that so we do know, take nafta for example, labor costs are just lower. >> $20 an hour, labor costs and building things today are going down as you see more naturalization for building things, when is it ever appropriate for our congress, our country to say we are projecting in 10 years, we're going to lose x number of manufacturing jobs if we don't do something to deal with this in terms of cost. so let's protect this industry, when is it ever overreact to do that -mark goal should be no tariffs but if we do that we will be destroyed what occasions? >> sometimes we need a real crisis to make that change. i want to say two things john mentioned, the transpacific partnership and which is the transatlantic trade and investment partnerships. you notice the word free trade is left out andexpunged because that's a bad word as well . so and john is right. the idea of trying to harmonize those agreements so that whether it's for auto parts, a big issue in every trade deal is chicken. we, our farmers, we bade the chicken in chlorine is a guarded and make it healthy. the europeans feel that allows for shoddy work, environmental conditions at the different farms so they refused to accept chlorinated chickens read the incidence of salmonella is far less in our country than it is in europe but frequently there are traditions and slanders and interest groups we have in our own country, we have it in their make it more difficult to find a way to harmonize the systems so that we could have a common standard whether it be for cars or chicken or, and i think the real crunch going to have is onthe whole digital area because jonathan and i were talking about this today . the united states and china seem to be going their separate ways on how we're going to deal with digital and the idea of having 2 separate systems globally, one that maybe with a lot of authoritarian governments and one that maybe with more free market. it's not a good prospect for the next 10 or 15 years and so i'm of the view we've got to find a way, we have to be tough with china but find a way to work with them because that's not really a good path for us to go down. i think it's going to make things much more difficult and we have this horrible virus outbreak in china right now, we have to find better ways to work together is finding ways that we keep separating ourselves from other parts of the world . >> yes. >> despite this boat that we just had with overwhelming majorities from both parties, assuming trade is still in their view of four letter word , and we have constituencies in both parties that when talking about free-trade, they are very anti-free-trade. it's been really hard to make the case even though looking on the merits, it's pretty clear. going forward, what's your advice to elected leaders and those trying to make the case of free-trade so we can see more agreements? >> i think that the disruption to people's lives and communities that trade is partly to be blamed, we're going to see this but not so much geographic concentrated, when it comes to artificial intelligence and greater and greaterautomation . so we're going to, we need as a country to find a way that were going to make sure , and i, when i researched the book robert holliman who worked as a trade representative uses this term we need lifelong readiness. lifelong learning, most people still to this day finished school at 18 or 22 and they go i'm done. and she said to me fred, you need to go back to school for a year and learn vietnamese or japanese or german, i would say that's a plan b. but lifelong readiness, here we are in miami and you have to be prepared for a hurricane, have to be prepared for when things come your way so starting to talk to people about it being a lifelong way, how are you keeping your skills up, your ability to change jobs, change careers and making that part of our dna, part of how we think about ourselves is one way of trying to regroup that and we have a problem with the term social safety net in our country. the problem is the first word. that's anotherfour letter word. i could do a whole series of books onfour letter words . so we need to sort out , part of my blame is that i need, i think we need to be honest about that. people get hurt and i think if we said people aregoing to get hurt and here are things we can do to help you and support you but to say trade is a win win and nobody gets hurt, they say i don't know what these people are talking about , thatmakes me angry. they're denying that i lost my job or my community got devastated and schools laid off people .so if we just can be honest about it and then to say hey,there's a support system , that changes that and i think is what we need to be lookingat . the changes happening are faster and faster and 100 years ago, 75 percent of americans were in agriculture and it took time to get back down to five percent. that's four 100 years, things are changing now infive years . how is our time, i have no idea? all right. well, thank you for coming. 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