and lower consumer confidence are to blame. our business editor simonjack has been to cardiff to talk to small businesses about the financial pressures they're facing. going, going gone. this wine merchant is picking up the last of the stock as he shuts down his business. 2023 shaping up to be a little shop of horrors. the number of companies in critical financial distress up caught in the last three months and this year is expected to see business failures than any since the crisis of 2009. i realised the shot wasn't valid anymore, i had to close the shop i went back online where i started originally but there was not the same, not the same spending power in the markets i could not make ends meet, i could not make ends meet, i could not make ends meet, i could not pay my suppliers or myself and the additional cost. that's when i realised it was not a valid business. insolvency experts say thousands of other business owners may find themselves in the same boat. it owners may find themselves in the same boat.— owners may find themselves in the same boat. it shows us the economy at _ the same boat. it shows us the economy at the _ the same boat. it shows us the economy at the moment - the same boat. it shows us the economy at the moment are i economy at the moment are struggling to contain his pressure circling around, the real alarming position here is the amount of critical stress is markedly higher, caught on quarter up 25% a lot of companies won't come back from the brink they are sitting on at the moment.— the brink they are sitting on at the moment. the construction and preperty _ at the moment. the construction and property sectors _ at the moment. the construction and property sectors in _ at the moment. the construction and property sectors in the - and property sectors in the sharpest rise in financial distress and that comes as no surprise to carrie lee, this firm has not worked to survive but says it is one of the toughest times he has seen the last 30 years. the toughest times he has seen the last 30 yew-— last 30 years. the timber anels last 30 years. the timber panels on _ last 30 years. the timber panels on that _ last 30 years. the timber panels on that we - last 30 years. the timber panels on that we bought last 30 years. the timber - panels on that we bought last year we talk about £56 and £120 a/c these days, and only going up. you go to the job a/c these days, and only going up. you go to thejob blind you wake up and things have gone up, you did not go back to your customers you might lose the job. you just take it and swallow it. peoples interest rates is a massive part of it, people spending more on their mortgages less likely to spend on buildings works.— mortgages less likely to spend on buildings works. wage bills, wane bills on buildings works. wage bills, wage bills borrowing _ on buildings works. wage bills, wage bills borrowing cost - on buildings works. wage bills, wage bills borrowing cost at - wage bills borrowing cost at the same time customers facing a cost of living crisis, add that to covid—i9 era loans they are paying back and a taxman less patient in those years no wonder there has been a surge in the number of being forced or choosing to throw in the towel. 0n the bright side inflation has fallen over the last year, prices are rising less quickly but keeping your head above water is a challenge many thousands of businesses are expected to fail this year. simon jack, bbc news. to the eurozone now — where it's a day for financial data from the bloc. we'll be getting the latest indication on how they are faring at reining in rising prices with figures for october due out today. price increases have been slowing — sitting at 4.3% in september — down from over 5% in august. europe's central bank will be hoping the bloc can follow europe's largest economy, germany, which posted its lowest inflation numbers for over two years on monday of 3%. we'll also be getting the latest economic output figures — with many expecting a recession on the horizon. joining me now is guillermo felices — global investment strategist at p—gim fixed income. let's ta ke let's take inflation to begin with, be see inflation, increase in prices coming down again? increase in prices coming down auain? , ., , . again? yes, we do expect inflation _ again? yes, we do expect inflation in _ again? yes, we do expect inflation in the _ again? yes, we do expect inflation in the eurozone i again? yes, we do expectl inflation in the eurozone to come down, sit back and be in the headline measure, we expect less than 3% which will be a welcome development but that is mainly due to energy prices falling. we expect a smaller falling. we expect a smaller fall when it comes to core inflation, we expect something like 4% fall from 4.5%. the like 4% fall from 4.596. the number like 496 fall from 4.596. the number coming _ like 496 fall from 4.596. the number coming from - like 4% fall from 4.5%. the number coming from germany yesterday would confirm that, you're a's august economy, the spectre of inflation seems to be under control, what does that mean for the european central bank? it that mean for the european central bank?— that mean for the european central bank? it is a welcome development _ central bank? it is a welcome development for _ central bank? it is a welcome development for the - central bank? it is a welcome | development for the european central bank, it is a significant fall in inflation but what i would say it is not the end of the story. for the central bank wants to focus on core inflation, which has been a lot stickier expect that to fall as i said to something like % or4.5%, fall as i said to something like % or 4.5%, that is the true measure of domestic pressure on inflation and that is what they are laser focused on, that is what they will need to bring down. in on, that is what they will need to bring down.— to bring down. in the light of that what — to bring down. in the light of that what you _ to bring down. in the light of that what you think - to bring down. in the light of that what you think the - to bring down. in the light of that what you think the ecbl that what you think the ecb will do at its next meeting? they are very comfortable staying where they are, they are in a very difficult position because inflation is still significantly above target but the economies are slowing significantly. in terms of economic _ slowing significantly. in terms of economic growth _ slowing significantly. in terms of economic growth what - slowing significantly. in terms of economic growth what are l slowing significantly. in terms i of economic growth what are we expecting for the euro area? we are expect _ expecting for the euro area? - are expect thing to — 3% growth to fall to less than zero point i%, to fall to less than zero point i%, a slight contraction, a reflection of the eurozone economy is slowing significantly.- economy is slowing sianificantl ., , , significantly. just quickly before we _ significantly. just quickly before we let _ significantly. just quickly before we let you - significantly. just quickly before we let you go - significantly. just quickly before we let you go you significantly. just quickly - before we let you go you used to work at the bank of england, the bank of england meets on thursday, what do you think it will decide this time? we think we are keeping _ will decide this time? we think we are keeping interest - will decide this time? we think we are keeping interest rates | we are keeping interest rates unchanged this time, inflation in the uk is not too different from the eurozone, high inflation in an economy also slowing. it is a very difficult position to be in as a central bank, we expect the bank of england to stay where it is now. , ., . , ., ~ now. guillermo felices, thank ou so now. guillermo felices, thank you so much- _ now. guillermo felices, thank you so much. we _ now. guillermo felices, thank you so much. we are - now. guillermo felices, thank you so much. we are hearing | you so much. we are hearing about prices going up or down or where inflation is heading. a factor that influences that is oil, the cost of oil. and a warning from the world bank that prices could rise to more than $150 a barrel if the conflict in the middle east escalates. they say that a drawn—out war in the region could drive big rises in energy and food prices just a year after they spiked due to russia's invasion of ukraine. heightened prices that have fed into bumper profits for the big energy companies and one of the biggest, bp, are posting their latest results this morning. let's get the view of sunaina sinha haldea — global head of private capital advisory at raymond james. good morning to you. let's start with the world bank warning, do you agree? yes, if there is a _ warning, do you agree? yes, if there is a pan- _ warning, do you agree? yes, if there is a pan- regional- there is a pan— regional conflict or wider in the middle east it will put pressure on oil prices globally. we saw this in the 70s with the oil shock back then, which had prices rally, there is an argument that says the middle eastern oil exporters which are up eastern oil exporters which are up 30% of the global oil market will send oil with prices spiking, that will impact people everywhere. countries like the uk to poor emerging market countries because it will send food prices and goods prices skyrocketing. you need oilfor prices skyrocketing. you need oil for everything, transport been cheap amongst them. so that is a real concern, this warning has come over the next 24—hour �*s, warning has come over the next 24—hour's, ip warning has come over the next 24—hour �*s, ip battering in your eggs business? hat 24-hour 's, ip battering in your eggs business? not quite et your eggs business? not quite yet everybody _ your eggs business? not quite yet everybody in _ your eggs business? not quite yet everybody in the _ your eggs business? not quite yet everybody in the oil - yet everybody in the oil markets and financial markets, my industry are watching it with nervousness but not with panic quite yet, so far it seems to be a contain conflict between israel and asked and everyone is watching to see whether there is any threat of escalation from other actors joining that conflict. —— hamas. it remains confined everyone will have a watchful eye on it stop so it remains to be seen. �* , eye on it stop so it remains to be seen-— be seen. let's talk about bp, numbers _ be seen. let's talk about bp, numbers coming _ be seen. let's talk about bp, numbers coming up - be seen. let's talk about bp, numbers coming up seven i numbers coming up seven o'clock, uk time. the oil giant has been through a tumultuous time it lost its boss who resigned, bernard many, he has gone as chief executive. what are you expecting the numbers to show us this time? the numbers _ to show us this time? the numbers will— to show us this time? the numbers will be _ to show us this time? tue: numbers will be lighter to show us this time? t'te: numbers will be lighter in the last quarter the profits were lower than this time last year because energy prices, oil prices have been lower across the board, despite the recent rise in the last few weeks because of what has happened in israel. you are still seeing quite a bit of softness in the oil price since the beginning of the yearfor example. of the year for example. however, you had of the yearfor example. however, you had bp going through a leadership transition, at the same time you have some of the us oil majors, exxon and chevron use the war chest of the bumpy years of the last 12 — 18 months to do major acquisitions to shore up their oil and gas businesses. bp has to make up its mind who they want leading its mind who they want leading it and how they want to go about working through the oil and energy transition markets. not a time to be hanging around, thank you very much, sunaina sinha haldea, there. to the us now, as the united auto workers union has agreed to a tentative new contract with general motors, two days after they expanded the strike at the car maker. after a bruising six—week walkout at america's big three car makers, the historic strike could soon be over if union members approve. from new york, here's our north america business correspondent michelle fleury. all three of the big american carmakers now have a tentative deal with united auto workers union, general motors was the last to settle, jeep maker stelantis reached an agreement on saturday ford announced its deal last week with this positive reaction from one employee, walter robinson. tt’s employee, walter robinson. it's definitely going to be like changing for the people, it's definitely going to be a career notiust— definitely going to be a career notiust a _ definitely going to be a career notjust a job. gm definitely going to be a career notjust a job-— notjust a 'ob. gm said it was leased notjust a job. gm said it was pleased with _ notjust a job. gm said it was pleased with the _ notjust a job. gm said it was pleased with the outcome i notjust a job. gm said it was i pleased with the outcome with the ceo adding the deal would allow to continue to invest in our future and provide good jobs in the united states. the agreements which still need to be ratified by rank union members include a 25% wage increase over 4.5 years as well as other benefits. for the uae w this is a big victory, historically the union has negotiated new contracts with one carmaker at a time, by taking on all three at once the president of the uaw successfully pitted them against each other. for the ast against each other. for the past several _ against each other. for the past several weeks, i against each other. for the | past several weeks, pundits were — past several weeks, pundits were crying the union was going to far. _ were crying the union was going to far. that— were crying the union was going to far, that we were demanding too much — to far, that we were demanding too much. we did not listen to them — too much. we did not listen to them and _ too much. we did not listen to them and we have never let up. the result— them and we have never let up. the result is one of the most stunning _ the result is one of the most stunning contract victories since _ stunning contract victories since the sitdown strikes in the 1930s. since the sitdown strikes in the 1930s— since the sitdown strikes in the 1930s. , �* ., the 1930s. president biden who recently visited _ the 1930s. president biden who recently visited the _ the 1930s. president biden who recently visited the picket i recently visited the picket line applauded the deal. today's historic agreement is yet another piece of good economic news showing something i economic news showing something i have _ economic news showing something i have always believed, worker power. — i have always believed, worker power, worker power is critical to building an economy, from the middle out and the bottom—up. the middle out and the bottom-ub— the middle out and the bottom-u. _, , , the middle out and the bottom-u. .., , , , bottom-up. new contracts put up cot cost for— bottom-up. new contracts put up cot cost for the _ bottom-up. new contracts put up cot cost for the carmakers - cot cost for the carmakers while they are trying to invest more in electric vehicle technology, fought estimated the new contract could add to $100 in labour costs to each new vehicle, the worry is that the big three unionised american carmakers might struggle to remain competitive after the strike. let's get some of the day's other news now. the bank ofjapan have announced further adjustments to its yield curve control policy allowing 10—year government bond yields to increase above 1%. this follows the falling value of the yen and is significant as the central bank is seemingly taking steps towards ending its massive stimulus programme. at the end of the two—day meeting, the bank ofjapan kept its negative short—term interest rates at minus 0.1%. us presidentjoe biden has signed a far—reaching executive order on artificial intelligence, requiring companies to report to the federal government about any risks their technology can pose. it also seeks to clamp down on deep fakes and the use of ai—generated audio and videos. the move comes as washington tries to lead the world in al regulation — even as the uk is about to host its own ai regulation summit. and elon musk is expected to attend that global summit on artificial intelligence in the uk this week. uk prime minister rishi sunak said he would do a live interview with the tech billionaire after thursday's event. the summit hopes to bring together ai experts and global leaders to discuss the potential risks of artificial intelligence. the pace of price rises in shops in the uk has eased to its lowest rate in more than a year — according to data from the british retail consortium. annual shop price inflation dropped to 5.2% in october from 6.2% in september. the trade body said a fall in the price of home—grown food was behind the numbers. and coming up — the pumpkins which saved a bakery business but also nearly squashed its owner. around the world and across the uk, this is bbc news. it is not ping—pong, tennis or badminton so what exactly is pickle ball? tt badminton so what exactly is pickle ball?— pickle ball? it is a great name. pickle ball? it is a great game- it _ pickle ball? it is a great game. it is _ pickle ball? it is a great game. it is a _ pickle ball? it is a great game. it is a game i pickle ball? it is a great game. it is a game is i pickle ball? it is a greatj game. it is a game is to pickle ball? it is a great i game. it is a game is to learn and— game. it is a game is to learn and fun— game. it is a game is to learn and funto— game. it is a game is to learn and fun to play and we have place — and fun to play and we have place to _ and fun to play and we have place to do it, not sisera let the best— place to do it, not sisera let the best players in the well, but coming out, meeting with friends — but coming out, meeting with friends once or twice a week, getting — friends once or twice a week, getting some exercise and feeling _ getting some exercise and feeling much better about their body _ feeling much better about their bod . f ., ~ feeling much better about their bod. j body. they're taking part in the national _ body. they're taking part in | the national championships. body. they're taking part in i the national championships. it might look easy but these lot are competitive. tt might look easy but these lot are competitive.— are competitive. it is 'ust really accessible i are competitive. it is 'ust really accessible to i are competitive. it isjust i really accessible to everyone and quite competitive so i believe that getting into competition and playing tournaments, which i would recommend to everyone because it is just a fabulous day as well. it isjust a fabulous day as well. , , ., , well. every time i play i feel like i learned _ like i learned something new. underarm serves only, each team has to play their first shot on the bounce and bowling is only allowed on the area closest to the net. you're live with bbc news. more now on those warnings from the world bank, this time in the price of gold. long seen as a safe haven investment in times of upheaval the price of the precious metal has risen by around 8% since the start of the israel—gaza war. according to a new report from the world gold council it is also being bought up by central banks like never before with purchases so far this year the highest on record for a nine—month period. to find out more i'm joined now byjohn reade, market strategist