quite handily, she still lost. barack obama was trounced in the first debate in 2012 by mitt romney — he won. john kerry, bested george w bush generally in the 2004 debates — he lost. i am not against debates, they are important moments, but in terms of predicting elections, forget it. that is fascinating. now, let's go to your predictions then. you predicted donald trump when not many people did, and you got a little memento for your prediction. indeed. would you like to see it? yes, go on, show it to us. yes, indeed. this is a note that donald trump wrote to me after his election, on the washington post, where i predicted his win. as you can see, it says, "professor, congrats. good call." and in big sharpie letters,