good day, i'm chris jansing live in london. we do have breaking news. in just the last ten minutes we learned an american citizen could be among the hostages released from gaza today. that's according to a u.s. official and a diplomat with knowledge of these fast-moving events. we're also following an unspeakable, almost unimaginable tragedy in a war that has been full of them. hamas is now saying that the biebas family, a mother and her two young children reportedly died while in their custody, although they're blaming israel. what impact could this have on the broader conflict and on negotiation aimed at extending the truce. george santos may be in his final hours as a member of congress. but santos remains defiant. his future and his hopes of avoiding that fate now down to simple math. we'll explain coming up. and we have been watching the pictures coming out of georgia where rosalynn carter has made her last trip back to the town of plains where she was born 96 years ago and where she will now be laid to rest. the latest on that and her husband's final farewell. but first, i want to bring in nbc's monica alba who was covering the white house for us. monica, is there any indication of who the american hostage is who we're learning is expected to be among those released today? >> reporter: well, chris, we don't have all of those details yet, and that really just speaks to how fluid this situation is. we know now from a u.s. official and a diplomat with knowledge of these talks and these events that it's possible one american could be among the group of hostages that would be released today, and now here's a little bit more about what we know behind the scenes that helps us narrow down who that person could be. we know that there were initially three americans who could be released based on the criteria of women and children in corresponding with the initial agreement. so we saw, of course, 4-year-old abigail idan released on sunday. she was the first dual israeli american citizen to be freed from gaza after being held by hamas. so that leaves two other american women potentially who we are still waiting to see how they will be released, if and when and whether that will actually take place today. so i'm told it would be potentially one of those two women, but until this is really final, it's very difficult to speculate because we've seen the lists come out, sometimes they shift. things can move, things can be delayed, there can be some kind of a derailment of the deal, and then it gets back on track. and all of this is happening, chris, as this agreement -- remember, we are now in this extension by two days of the truce. it could be expanded again, but we have no idea if that's really going to happen. as it stands right now, that agreement is set to expire in a matter of hours. so if it is just one potential american who is included today, there are a lot of question marks about what would happen with that other american woman, and then we also know that there's this larger conversation going on with this intensive diplomatic discussion going on from the u.s. and others about whether this next phase, another extension could now start the conversation about releasing potentially american men or anyone who is connected to the military who is being held who might be a woman or a man as well. those conversations still have to take place, and there's so much that needs to be ironed out. but i am told by a u.s. official that the biden administration maintains it is hopeful that extension will take place today, but again, we have to just stress, chris, that we don't know if that's going to happen for sure, but we did see and hear from secretary antony blinken in the region today who spoke to this and why they are hoping this will be the case. here's a little bit from his remarks. >> to make sure that its people have what they need to get by. looking at the next couple of days, we'll be focused on making -- doing what we can to extend the pause so that we can continue to get more hostages out and more humanitarian assistance in. we'll discuss with israel how it can achieve its objective in ensuring that the terrorist attacks on october 7th never happen again, while sustaining an increasing amount of assistance and minimizing further suffering. >> what's notable as well, chris, is that up until yesterday and as recently as we've seen over these last couple of days as hostages have been released, the u.s. has not been completely certain about the visibility it has as to where these american women are being held. we know that hostages are being held not just by hamas but by other militant groups in gaza. that's another big part of this in terms of whether these two american women are being held in different places by different people, and that is why potentially we may only see one of them released today, though, again, i have to just stress that until they are transferred over the boarder and checked by medical officials, we can't rely on that even though of course it would be incredibly good news if it does come to pass, chris. >> monica alba, thank you for bringing us up to speed on that news. as we wait for more news, there is a heartbreaking development to tell you about. israeli forces confirming that they have informed the family of three israeli hostages that, according to hamas, all of them are now dead. those hostages, 10-month-old, kefir biebas, his 4-year-old brother, and his mother. the idf says they are still working to verify hamas's claims. if it is true, it is obviously a horrific tragedy that comes amid otherwise hopeful news that that temporary cease fire in gaza may be extended for a second time. it is a major development. we heard it from a senior arab diplomat directly involved in the negotiations. the word they are using is expectation, that it is their expectation that the truce will continue for at least two more days. according to nbc ws, 86 hostages have been released so far. 81 of them since the initial cease fire began on friday. that's not including the ones expected to be released today. nbc news is also reporting that according to a diplomat with knowledge of the talks, negotiators are now discussing the release of groups other than just women and children, so simultaneously ongoing negotiations are aimed toward a pause in the fighting that goes beyond just two or four days. that is critical. obviously forgetting the hostages out, but also for the international community that's been surging aid and supplies to those still in gaza. according to the world health organization, 1.3 million palestinians are living in shelters there. more than 200,000 of them suffering from health problems brought on by lack of food, water, sanitation, and basic hygiene. i want to bring in nbc's erin mclaughlin. where do we believe negotiations stand at this hour, and what do we know about the fate of these three israeli hostages? >> reporter: we're just beginning to hear news on today's exchange, the israeli military posting the following, according to the information provided by the red cross two israeli hostages were transferred to them and were on their way to israeli territory. their release is in addition to the list of hostages that are scheduled to be released today. we are expecting ten hostages to be released today. now according to this statement, 12 are actually being released by hamas. we're awaiting word on the other 10. as you mentioned that knees about the bibas' family, heartbreaking for them. the israeli military saying they have notiied the family of this claim coming from hamas's militant wing. so far they have been unable to veri it. the bibas family putting out a statement saying our family is dated on the latest hamas publication. we are waiting for the news to be confirmed or hopefully refuted soon by military officials. we thank the people of israel for the warm embrace but ask to maintain our privacy at this complex time. this as calls for the freedom of the bibas family have been growing in recent days. just yesterday there was a rally here in tel aviv. they released orange balloons in the sky to represent the redheaded babies, 10-month-old and the 4-year-old. it is worth noting that some of these claims in the past have been unreliable. given the case of hannah cat sere, 76 years old, an israeli hostage, islamic jihad, an israeli group in gaza claimed she had been killed by an israeli air strike. she was among the first hostages to be released. so we are still waiting when it comes to the bibas family for news, concrete news from the israeli military confirming that at least three members were killed in the israeli air strike. the military, government officials quick to point out that the fate of any of the hostages in gaza is the sole responsibility of hamas. this as they continue, we understand, to negotiate another possible extension to the cease fire. we're waiting for more news on that, if it is not extended, the cease fire is expected to end tomorrow. chris. >> erin mclaughlin, thank you so much. a couple of pieces of breaking news, let me bring in "new york times" chief white house correspondent peter baker who is an msnbc political analyst. haviv gur is a senior analyst with the times of israel. great to have both of you here. i don't know if we have haviv to come up. can you hear me, haviv? >> yes, i can hear you. >> great. i want to ask you first about this new information we got from the red cross. it appears that 12 people are going to be released today, but according to information from the red cross, two israeli abductees were transferred to them and are on their way to israeli territory. i wonder what you make of that. we have two, the word is there may be 12. the ongoing, uncertainty as we have often said until they're actually in the hands of the red cross, the statements you cannot pretend are necessarily going to come to pass. >> you can't be sure. >> right, right. i'm not entirely sure who those two people are. the hamas did say today that they're releasing two russian israelis, and specifically made the point as a gesture to vladimir putin and the russian government, so they could be two added onto that. in the ten, we know that just most of the children are now out of gaza essentially. the bibas siblings are obviously not, and there are a couple others who are not whose story is just as tragic. but so that's basically the group that's out now. we're most of the way through the children. there's about two dozen women still left, and then begins the extension that everyone is talking about, and qatari officials are talking about getting the men out. >> what are your sources telling you about the potential for another extension of the cease fire? how long is it possible, do you think, to keep this going? >> it looks like it's in hamas's profound interest to keep this going. they are finding hostages. they are finding hostages they claimed -- they weren't able to find, and so they want this cease fire to keep going. they probably believe, they have said they believe that the pressure on israel is building and this could actually prevent a resumption of the ground war. if that is what they believe is happening, then i think they are mistaken. there's almost just politically within israel, strategically the scale of the threat that october 7th represents means that hamas can't remain in gaza. so we are looking at a resumption of the ground war, but of course the israelis would like to get out just about everyone, as many as they possibly can in this window because once the war moves on to khan younis, it's not clear if that's even possible. >> and i wonder, peter, if we can talk a little bit about the intersection between the human cost here and the politics of it and how one informs the other. and by that i mean, when y see the pictures of the beautiful family and know that a mother and two children, including a baby, are dead, it is something that captures a lot of people's attention and for understandable reason. when you look at kfir, you look at ariel, you look at their beautiful mother, how does this horrible loss play into pressure, play into political negotiations? certainly there's been a lot of pressure on the prime minister, benjamin netanyahu, but the president has been feeling both internal pressure at the white house as well as the obvious external pressure. talk about that intersection. >> well, obviously the last few weeks there's been a lot of attention understandably and correctly on the civilian casualties in gaza that has added to the pressure on the president from the left wing of his party. the reminder that coming back to the hostages reminds people of the other side, the original side of this particular, you know, tragic war that started on october 7th when hamas attacked israel and took 240 people hostage. that picture that you show, the human cost on that side, and i think that that has reminded the politicians in washington that israel was the victim of this attack, even as many people, of course, are concerned about the casualty toll on civilians in gaza. it gives president biden a little bit of a breather as long as the pause continues. his democratic allies have been calling -- some of them have been calling for a cease fire, and in fact, they've got one on a temporary basis. the question is what happens when the hostage exchanges are done. at some point hamas will run out of hostages or run out of hostages they're willing to release. then what happens at that point? israel presumably does restart its ground war. it said it want thes to do that. the biden administration has been vocal about the way that should be conducted. cautioning them not to go into the south gaza where so many civilians have taken shelter without a plan, a better plan to minimize casualties sochlt there's real tension there between washington and jerusem right now. >> yeah, i want to ask you -- and maybe i should start by reading a part of the reporting in your paper that says, quote, two people with knowledge of the talks said that the hope was the current model would generate momentum, that would prevent the resumption of hostilities and would create the conditions for longer term talks. bibi netanyahu has been very consistent saying it's not a matter of if, but when they resume the fighting. so how do you reconcile the -- or help us reconcile that with the times reporting whether among the people you're talking to, they believe on the american side there is a legitimate chance this war could be on hold for a while? >> well, i don't think they're holding their breath, but obviously i think it would certainly be a happy day in the white house if the war were not to resume at certainly the scale it had been before. they're not going to say that quite so explicitly out loud. they recognize the politics in israel. we've seen, of course, bibi netanyahu's his own right wing coalition pressuring him to make sure he does resume military operation once these hostages are released. he's under a great deal of pressure to do that. as we just talked about, the politics in israel are such that nobody wants to leave hamas in any sense of power in gaza, so it's hard to imagine netanyahu simply, you know, holding back if there's not another alternative there. it doesn't seem -- what the alternative might be at this point is not very clear. >> we're seeing a live picture here, this is egyptian television, and we believe we are waiting for the actual hostage exchanges, and haviv, i want to ask you a little bit about something that was reported by sky news middle east correspondent al stair bunk l who started by saying he'd talked to a senior idf official over the weekend, quote, when do you think the war will end i asked the officer? the reply, when uncle sam says enough. is that, you think, an accurate depiction of the dynamics as they are right now? >> i don't think so. i don't know who that officer was, but i don't think that officer represents. i think that was a flippant comment. president biden did not allow the war. president biden did not enable the war. president biden prevented the war from being much larger. the israelis had to go to this war after october 7th after that massacre after 240 hostages and 1,200 dead. and what president biden did was essentially tell the iranians and hezbollah and lebanon don't expand this into a regional conflict because we're here in force. so that -- giving israel that backing allowed israel to conduct a smaller war. there isn't -- i don't -- in my estimation of israeli psychology right now, there isn't a capacity of america to actually tell israel -- israel won't listen. it won't listen and i don't think america has leverage on that point. let me just point out to the extent to which we should expect this war to expand. there are hundreds of thousands of israelis internally displaced in israel right now, probably around 200,000, northern villages on the northern border are empty for about six weeks now. all the villages and towns around gaza are empty, and those people won't come home as long as the massive threats both in gaza and in lebanon are removed, and so the very fact that the israeli government is housing them in hotels all this time, tells me that the israeli government intends to solve these problems, these military problems before -- in time for these people to return home in some reasonable amount of time. so you should expect this war to expand and the best america can do is try to keep it from expanding too much. we just got a press release from the hostage and missing persons family's form which was founded in the wake of the horrific attack by hamas and the taking of these hostages. they have confirmed or they say that two people who are released -- it's important that we say, we don't know if these are the two the idf talked about or part of the larger group scheduled to be released today, y lanai tropinov, 50 years old irina her mother who is 73 years old. the entire family immigrated together from russia to israel. irina has worked all her life as a dr. yulana worked for -- they were kidnapped from their home at the kibbutz nir oz along with sasha, who are believed to still being held by llamas. -- hamas. this word from the hostages and missing persons forum headquarters that these two are the ones who have been released. as we see more of these releases and more people are coming home, haviv, have you sensed in any way the mood on the ground in israel or the support for bibi netanyahu shifting in any way? >> that's a very good question. every poll we have tells us that the israeli public blames netanyahu for what happened, for the army's unreadiness, netanyahu has been prime minister for something like 14 of the last 15 years. netanyahu led a policy that argued -- and he has argued for 14 years, hamas is detained, hamas is deterred. on october 7th we learned that is catastrophically incorrect. i don't think any of this helps netanyahu. i don't think any of this helps hamas. you know, i have to get this in. there is still a minor in gaza, and i haven't seen the entire list. it looks like most of the kids are out, but 17-year-old aisha, a teenager muslim, arab, israeli is still in gaza, and is one of the last in gaza, minors, and there is no word about her and her family is terrified. she's there with her brother, her father, they were all kidnapped. october 7th saw mass rape, and so the fear for her is very real, and the very fact that we're not even hearing about her from hamas, there's not even an effort to even -- it tells you something about hamas. there are dozens of muslim arab israeli casualties from hamas's massacre on october 7th as well. i don't think netanyahu is going to be rescued. there are still minors and there are still women. the very fact that they want to move on to a new e