Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20120730 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Squawk Box July 30, 2012



at a decisive point. he's promising leaders will decide in the coming days what measures to take. these comments follow mario draghi's comments saying they will do whatever it takes to save turo. international debt inspectors will not be leaving. they will help athens prepare a package of spending reforms. it's necessary. treasury secretary tim geithner is heading to europe. he's meeting with draghi and wolfgang schaeuble. wolfgang schaeuble has dismissed talk about spanish request for a eurozone support and buying its bond on the eve of talk with geithner. that view is at odds with the united states. andrew? >> we got some corporate headlines for you this morning. apple and samsung facing off in court today. apple filed a lawsuit against its rival alleging samsung smart phones and computer tablets are an illegal knockoff of iphone ampb pad bruise. apple was $2.5 billion in damages. samsung counters that apple is the one doing stealing. before we continue one other quick note. samsung provides many of the screens and other pieces of apple's own devices. they are suing one of their competitors supply partners. kind of complicated. apple grabbing headlines on another big story, published reports, kayla tausche saying apple and twitter not in discussions. "new york times" had reported apple held negotiations with twitter in recent months. jack dorsey and tim cook meeting at allen and company, that was in sun valley earlier this month. the companies are remaining friendly and will continue to talk about working together. canada's enbridge planning to replace part of a leaky wisconsin pipeline today following a spill on friday. it has leaked more than 1,000 barrels of oil in a wisconsin field. the accident shut down a key pipeline from canada. becky? >> a lot of concerns about that. let's check the markets. as we showed you before it looks like the futures are essentially flat lining right now in the united states. everybody is waiting to see what both the ecb and our own fed plan to do this week. big policy meetings from both of them and that's going to be driving the markets. at the end of the week we get that huge jobs report number. this time around people are looking, economists are expecting a gain of 100,000, slightly ber than what we've been seeing. let's take a look what oil prices are doing this hurricane warning. you'll see right now oil is -- essentially flat lining too. every market may be waiting to hear more news what these policy leaders will come out with. at this point, $90.12. down by one penny. ten year note we've been watching the yield very closely as it bounced around and wow at this point 1.5%. 1.55%. we've been watching that very closely. we did see a bounce in yields last week after the comments coming from draghi given the idea they would step back in. for a while we saw that ten year trading below 1.4%. euro is trading a 1.2274. gold prices at this point are indicated, they are flat lining too. $1,618 an ounce. >> i want to talk about michael phelps. kelly evans is standing by in london. before we get to the markets can we talk about mr. phelps for half a second? >> absolutely. >> he got a medal yesterday. a silver one as part of the relay team. >> watched that. i don't even know. >> i was disappointed. >> were you there? were you in the room to see all of this? >> you know, i was not. i will actually be at some of the diving on tuesday. i went to the beach volleyball on saturday morning but the michael phelps event i watched on screen. pretty remarkable. >> pretty crazy. how is it out there? is olympic fever taking over? >> what's fascinating the olympic spirit seems to be taking over like between the torch relay last week and a lot of events this week. there's a general lack of cynicism which is reefficienting. what's also really interesting is that it's very quiet in the city. there's a real sense that it's emptied out and perhaps it may be the number of people aren't showing up that were expected. so while it's nice for those of us who live here and trying to get around you do wonder about the retallers and we popped into a store over the weekend and one said he never sees anything like the boost around wimbledon because so many regular tourists have stayed away. maybe that will change. >> let's talk markets. you got green arrows behind you. some other expectations, i don't know if we'll get a gold medal later from mr. draghi or something. >> don't know if there's many gold medals going to policymakers. it's not of end the ecb is the one to watch instead of the federal reserve but that's what's shaping up this week. as we head into that, some of the commentary from the ecb will come in to the market. over the weekend we've seen advancers out pacing decliners by a 7-3 ratio. stoxx 600 is up about 1%. we guilt baines throughout the tra -- we're building gains throughout the market. >> over here shares are now up about .2, almost a quarter of a percent. vying all morning for direction. hsbc report ad slightly better profit than expected but provisioning for better issues. there's also a question of whether it can meet its long term equity target. the ceo made some comments on that on the call. the bank said it's being investigated for libor issues. take a look at the rest of the indexes across the major european indexes. 2.6% for italy. 2% for ibex in spain. people expect we'll get more supportive action from policymakers. we're trying to push for a new record of 25. focus on the yield curve for a second if we can take a look was happening there, italy did come out and issue debt more cheaply than it did a month ago. what's curious the yield on the ten year which is a touch under 6% hasn't shown that much relief. it's better but we were at these levels before. this is not a huge move to the down side if you were expecting some point of end point. ten year in spain 6.6%. ten year in france is just under 2%. ten year bund 1.4. euro/dollar, it's down almost half a percent this morning and the real question has been to what degree that is reflecting risk on in the market and whether the euro is now the new funding currency, of course that being a bit of a nasty title there as far as sorry concerned. in any case i'll focus on the olympics. i'll be back with carl quintanilla for "squawk on the street." in the meantime i'll hand it back to you guys. >> could be a big week for troubled countries in europe. joining us now from london is the chief european economist at barclays. good morning to you, sir. i think the only way to think about this is this. given what mr. draghi said last week, if he doesn't show up with the fire power this week, what happens? meaning is the expectation so high at this point or can he drag his feet at all on this? >> no. i think you're absolutely right. of course mr. draghi and others who have spoken would be aware of this. they have set in trade now a very significant level of market expectation and there does need to be follow through. you'll see that happening but we should bear in mind there are still a few rather crucial political issues that do need to be addressed because really for temp cb to be intervening with confidence here and going back and buying government debt again -- remember it's not all government debt since february of this year, it would need to get some preconditions in place, in particular it would want to see that a country like spain and perhaps italy would be actually requesting support from the esff in order to buy government debt itself from these countries in the primary markets and the ecb could come in alongside and engaging its own intervention that would have a more significant impact. all in all we always got to be in europe there's a political process that is very tricky to coordinate and the financial market expectations, of course, run around this. but it's very important at this point that the politics work. >> let's talk about what you think those expectations are and what needs to happen for them to be met. you just discussed doing something in tandem with italy and spain. is that what you expect to see? what is it you anticipate? >> i think we have to pay a lot of attention to the fact that the spanish and italian prers will meet on thursday and we have to see what will come out of that meeting. if that results in a call by spain to actually have some access to the esff in addition to the bank lending program, then that, i think, would set in trade the opportunity for the ecb to be intervening as well under the smp, the security markets program. there's a lot of other expectations out there. the ecb could make some amendments to its collateral policy and there by make it a little bit easier for banks to be submitting government debt in order to be able to act as ecb financing. it might announce another one of the ltro, long term refinancing operations the way in which provides credit particularly into southern europe. there's another issue out there which is whether the ecb might grant the european stability mechanism which doesn't come in to force sill september a banking license but that's trickier to see especially since the ecb doesn't come in to force until september, german constitutional court on september 12th needs to deliver a verdict on that. it's one of these important dates. three key events really that i can see happening in september. german institutional court decision the very same day you have the dutch general election which could also be an important country within all this protein vigd support and finally something has to be done on greece because the greek lending program has gone significantly off track and i think the only way that can be resolved is that there has to be some form of official sector write down. again, politically that's very tough. >> answer this question for me. every time the market wants to move in a positive direction the bulls say draghi came out and said he'll do whatever he takes. the bears say you still have wolfgang schaeuble saying no way and german leaders saying we're not going along with this. does ecb have the mandate and do they need germany's permission? >> they need to go ahead and do it in some degree without germany's agreement. if they do so, they really do risk driving a big wedge here. between themselves and berlin if germany isn't supporting it. that of course itself can be very difficult. let's face at it central bank, it's issuing a paper currency. i want need to hatch good correct -- it needs to have good credibility. particularly with the german government and the european central bank that's not healthy for tehe ecb's own credibility. what mr. draghi is trying to do is get all sides in a similar line. >> okay. julian, thank you for joining us. we'll have to see where all of this lands later in the week and hope to have you back very soon. >> pleasure. >> when we come back, today marks 100 days until the u.s. presidential election. believe it or not we're on the countdown in that final few days. we'll check in with john harwood right after this. but first did you know that today is national cheesecake day? a slice is twice as nice when it's that feel price. the folks at the cheesecake factory are offering half price cheesecake slices at their restaurants approximately we'll be right back. lidating my asset. i'm not paying hidden fees or high commissions. i'm making the most of my money. and seven-dollar trades are just the start. i'm with scottrade. i'm with scottrade. i'm with scottrade. and i'm loving every minute of it. [ rodger riney ] at scottrade, we give you commission-free etfs, no-fee iras and more. come see why more investors are saying... i'm with scottrade. welcome back to "squawk." u.s. equity futures at this hour looking pretty flat across the board. dow looks like it would open up marginally down. s&p as well. making headlines, consumers are facing higher gasoline prices at the pump. the average price of a gallon of regular now at $3.51. up 10 cents in two weeks. now let's take some time to check out today's national forecast, alex wallace joins us from the weather channel. alex. >> good morning to you. looks like we'll be track being some storms across parts of the south today. dealing with that across the deep south of mississippi into alabama and as we head into the overnight hours, darker shade of red dealing with the risk. damaging winds and hail will be the main risk in any of the storms certainly capable of producing heavy downpours and quite a bit of lightning. also the risk for stronger storms into the upper midwest and around the great lakes. good chunk of wisconsin dealing with that including green bay. main threats is damaging winds as well as hail. thanks to this storm system that's going to move its way on through the area. tuesday, quickly working on off towards the south and east now the upper ohio valley working on to the interior northeast for the risk of some storms. mid-part of the week working its way towards the east coast. wednesday wet weather from new york, philly towards d.c. where temperatures will be in the 80s. while all that's going on, heat that continues to be the story of the summer, 100s out there. big ridge of high pressure in the middle of the country keeping things extremely hot. oklahoma city, 100. monday 108. you'll climb, tuesday 1209. we're not cooling off in these areas. if anything we're getting hotter even in the mid-part of the week up around 111. dallas feeling it at 108 degrees. as we work our way through the rest of the week, dealing with at least 20 states and over 65 million people that may have to deal with 100 degree heat. certainly a week to take it easy in the middle of the country. guys, back to you. >> alex thank you very much. today is 100 days until the election. president obama shading to new york. mitt romney continues his overseas tour. john harwood joins us from washington this morning. and john, 100 days and counting approximately feels like we've been talking about this forever already. this is the real countdown, right? >> reporter: it is. we're talking about the same things that we've been talking about for several months. very close race, focused on eight to ten states. millions and millions of dollars are being spent on a very small number of undecided numbers. polls haven't moved. despite all the things that have happened, policy changes by the candidates, mitt romney emerging as the republican front-runner, speculating about a vice president, none of that has changed the fact we have a race where president obama is up two, three, four points over romney both nationally and in the swing seats and even a little bit better in the swing states. slight favorite for re-election but only a slight favorite either guy has a chance to yuan. >> it means those independent voters are more important than ever. those are the ones that those people who haven't made up their mind what are they doing weighing in. you have a jobs number that comes out this tri-. markets we're watching very closely. ecb and fed both coming up with policy making meetings. is that what plays into this? >> yes. but it's not only the independent voters who matter. in a contest like this, where let's say you've got 6% to 8% of the electorate that truly doesn't know what they are going to do at this point and still waiting for information, do you have both party machineries working very hard to increase the number of known supporters. the mobilization, the turn out effort will be very key. as for the undecided what we saw in our nbc/wall street journal poll last week they don't like either one of these candidates. both obama and romney are viewed overwhelmingly negatively or mostly negatively by these voters and so it's sort of a least of two evils kind of thing for them and i think they are going to be watching economic trend, they will be watching things they hear from their neighbors and what sort of contacts they get from the campaigns and what's in the television advertisement, all that is difficult to predict how they are going to come down but they tend to decide -- they tend to be the least interested in the campaign, they decide very, very late. >> john front page of actually, virtually all the papers this morning, romney here in israel. we have romney here supporting israel on the front page of the "new york times" as well. how is that going to play when you look at some of the earlier polls, is this going to move the needle in terms of an argument to try to drive what some people say is sort of this republican/jewish vote? >> republicans have been working to expand their appeal to less liberal jews for some time. they haven't done all that well so far. but they got a shot given some of the discontent with president obama or israel and middle east policy. so, yes, they got a shot to move that forward. they are working it very hard. that's the point of romney's trip which got off to kind of a weak start in london and hoping it got better. he's head fog land now. we'll see if key make that work. it hasn't been all that successful for republicans in a large way but in certain targeted states, florida, for example, which is very close, obama has a lead, it's a very, very important constituency and important constituency financially. >> okay. i can't figure -- he got what he wanted, right? these pictures, i'm assume, if you're romney you want pictures like this to give the sense you're a traveling statesman. >> he's walking a fine line opinion he don't say he's not there to disagree with the president or change any foreign policy but then some of the things he's saying are in direct opposition to what the u.s. policy is at this point. that's a pretty tricky line. >> it is. there's this sort of quaint custom that was once observed and talked about, you know, politics stops at the water's edge and when you're on foreign soil you don't criticize the president. it's kind of silly because both of these campaigns in permanent warfare mode. each party violates that election after election. romney is cueing to the form of the past which says i'm not going to outline any differences but you may notice he gave an interview in nevada to an israeli newspaper before he left, and in that interview he spelled out some of his differences. >> i guess it's a little different today where everybody has the internet access. >> distinction is kind of lost. >> john, thank you very much. great talking to you. we'll see you again this week several times. >> coming up, we have veteran money manager bob doll. and a story becky and i were talking about all morning. first it was sugary sized drinks. hear what new york mayor michael bloomberg wants to regulate? we'll tell you about it and take a look at last week's winners and losers. you don't want to go anywhere. 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