are counting down and it is game time. it is the political game going on tonight. the republican candidate goesing for the deep south and we have big prizes up for grabs, mi mississippi and alabama, and the total delegates at stake tonight in those two states is 84. if you are keeping track, more than 8 million votes nationwide have been cast in 26 primaries and caucuses so far. the horse race over the past several days has been truly tightening for the states up for grabs the night, and sit down to the wire. we are less than an hour away from the polls closing and will it be sudden death for one of the four candidates to give this country a little clarity of who is in and who might be out of what is a roller coaster race? can newt gingrich rise again as we call canned we called it the triple lazarus. and a bad night for newt gingrich could mean he is out of the race. >> with rick and me together, we arelying him down and with some help from ron paul, and the country is sort of saying by a majority of them saying not romney. >> well, if rick santorum has a strong finish, he is going to prove that the appeal runs through the south as well as the midwest. >> we need the conservative belt right through the south of america to speak loudly that they want a strong conviction conservative candidate. >> and the stakes of course are very, very high for mitt romney tonight. if he looks weak in these southern states, which he has not won with the exception of florida which is different from the deep south, the old story line that he cannot close the deal will be the headline again tomorrow, and today, he is focusing on math and the delegate count. >> if the polls are anywhere near correct we will end up with one-third of the delegates, and if that is the case, well, that inches us closer to the magic number. >> all right. so let's get to john king with the latest exit polling data and john, you have been looking at this and interesting things of the evangelicals and who is out today and who isn't? >> well, gail on, and dead heat in the polling, and three-way ties, and who voted and what is on the mind of the people voting and you have the look for clues and we have to be careful, because the polls are open. but can governor romney win the shout? he has the most money and so is he conservative enough? if not, where do they go? so if they have a split, 42% for gingrich and 47% for santorum. and more than half say he is not conservative enough. it does not mean they did not vote for him, but 42% of the people in mississippi describe themselves as very conservative, and that is not surprising in a conservative southern state. and 10% in mississippi describe moderate to liberal, so maybe not as conservative as you thought. that is mississippi. move over, and these are open primaries and no party registrati registration. and 38% in alabama, and 31% somewhat, and 31%, moderate to liberal. we may stereotype them, but along the gulf coast, retirees from the gulf coast and elsewhere. and these people are not registered so we asked what are you? 80% in mississippi said they were republican. and now look at the number in alabama, only two-thirds identify themselves as republicans. so that is an interesting difference of neighboring states. 66% of alabamians say that they are republican. >> everybody has enthusiasm gap in the particular primary, but when you seethe independents coming out, what does that say? >> well, they do not trust anybody, and they want to call themselves independents, because they don't like the institutions. they don't like the banks or the political parties or us, as you know from covering the financial issues, so people are mad and identify themselves as independents, but they are conservative. 15 years ago there were no state organized parties in the county level in alabama and mississippi. at the state level it was mostly democrats and now republicans everywhere, the county sxhisher in and the congressional races, and governor romney has a lot of the local endorsements. hayes the governor of mississippi and does that help him organizationally where people say he is from massachusetts and he is a mormon and he says cheesy grits. >> yes. and can he get the passion vote versus romney's organization vote? that is two great states to watch it play out tonight. >> amazing and fascinating results so far from what john told you from the exit polls, and more information is coming in and of course we will share it with you as we have the polls closing. well, today, mitt romney took a slam at rick santorum for the attack ads. >> well, he is at the desperate end of the campaign and looking for some way to boost the prospects, and frankly misrepresenting the truth is not a good way of doing that. >> why do you think that he is a desperate end of the campaign? >> well, i mean, he is far behind in the delegate count, and he is far behind in the popular vote count, and if you look at the math of how many delegates he would have the win to be the nominee, it is a difficult road for him, and at this stage, he is looking for some way to try to gain ground. >> well, wolf blitzer is here with me now, and interesting, wolf, you got hem to talk about other candidates which he had been loathed to do until you talked to him tonight. >> well, a lot of times they like the aides or the supporters to take the high road and they look presidential and going after president obama without necessarily getting into the mud, but i asked him a sensitive question about rick santorum's super pac, the pro rick santorum's super pac plasting h -- blasting him saying that he left a $1 billion of debt when he left the governorship of massachusetts. but that is what happens in politics. >> well, from the analyst you have done -- >> well, it could be desperate end for newt gingrich on the other hand if he does not win one of the two southern states tonight with the campaign presumably in a lot of trouble. santorum will go on, because next tuesday, they are in illinois and advertising to be ready for a huge primary in illinois. >> i was looking at the numbers and as usual mitt romney with the super pac millions of dollars. and he predicted he would win one-third of the delegates tonight. >> he will probably given the proportional nature of distributing the delegates. >> is that enough? >> well, way ahead, and he has double of the delegates of santorum, and more than gingrich and ron paul is way, way behind and yet to win any of the primaries or caucuses. so methodically, that will keep mitt romney going, and obviously he would like the win them all, but the drepublicans are following the democratic lead and following with the proposh gnat -- proportional ti. . >> well, they know it is going to happen if you speak to them, because they are very, very confident and looking a ttd n i numbers and the money. if you have a billionaire giving you $10 million or whatever, that goes to a super pac, but there are restrictions of how it can be used. it can be was yused in attack ads, but not day to day operations, paying the staff for example, and i don't think that san tomorrow or newt gingrich want to go into personal debt if they don't believe they are going to win. >> well, we will see and follow the money, and sometimes it will get you to answer more times than many people think. thank you, wolf blitzer, who spoke to mitt romney earlier to knig night, and we are 50 minutes away from the closing of the polls. and tim paw llenty is going to join us, and he obviously supports mitt romney, but we will ask him if the gop has a god problem. and the drop in the approval rating for the president an anomaly or worrisome trend? 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>> i would say that they are more cautious than confident tonight, erin. the santorum campaign is looking at two bad scenarios that could come into play later on this evening when the votes come in which is romney winning both of the states tonight or gingrich winning both of the states tonight which would be a huge momentum drag for rick santorum, and also deny him the opportunity to gain on mitt romney in the delegate count which is desperately what he needs to do this evening, and that is why earlier this evening when rick santorum was on a conservative talk radio program called for newt gingrich to get out of the race. one thing, erin, i am watching is how the evangelical vote plays out for rick santorum. keep in mind, he did better than expected in oklahoma and tennessee where the evangelical vote was a major factor in both of the contests, and that bodes well for him in both mississippi and alabama. >> we will talk to tim pawlenty about how the evangelicals and the conservatives may have cast their votes in a moment. and we go the joe johns at the gingrich headquarters in birmingham, alabama. what is the feeling there and is the gingrich camp making it is make or break? >> well, you know, erin, moving away from the make or break language that we heard a week ago and it is interesting because newt gingrich has said much more recently that as far as he is concernconcerned, if i close, never the race in mississippi and alabama moves on and he has said recently, like today, that he plans to go all of the way to the republican convention. now, the one thing though that i also think that you have to say is that newt gingrich has to say, that and he has to say that he is going to keep going, because he has been een warned the supporters not the talk down his own campaign, but the bottom line if he does not do well in the two states the calls will increase for newt gingrich to get out of the race, erin. >> and joe, i'm curious, because we are calling it the triple lazarus, you know, the biblical hat trick for gingrich to rise for the third time, but from what you are e sare seeing in t crowds and the number of people en thooz yas tick fthusiastic f how can he do it? >> well, this is the south and his strength, but there is suggestions that he is regional candidates and the polls in illinois say he is not doing well there at all. there is a memo that the gingrich campaign set out, setting up a scenario where gingrich does better in the second half of the primary season than he has done in the first half of the primary season, and they make ta point that we are not even to the halfway point, and it does not occur until louisiana, at the end of march. still though, if you read closely through that memo, they make some claims that they don't support with at lot of facts as to why state by state newt gingrich is going to do better going forward. so, it is a very open question. you don't want to count him out completely simply because he has done ate couple of times before, and nonetheless, it looks very hard, very rough for newt gingrich going forward, if he does not do well tonight. >> we will see how tonight is, and whether there is a major announcement from newt gingrich after tonight, and of course, that is a real possibility depending how it goes. mitt romney h is downplaying the expectations today as well and they have all been doing it and that is what happens with a three-way tie. he expects to walk away with one-third of the delegates, and the polls show that the massachusetts governor is polling very well in the south even though he compared campaigning in the south a home and away game. and tim pawlenty is a campaign chairman for mitt romney, and governor, good the talk to you again, and thank you for taking the time tonight, and mitt romney, what is a win in your view for him tonight? >> well, a noteworthy development tonight could be mitt romney winning or doing well in one or both of the states, erin. if you dialed back the discussion a few weeks, people were saying that it would be challenging for him, that he didn't have a chance and going to be very difficult for him, and now it looks like he could be tied or very close to the top or even come out on top, and if that were to happen in one of the states, it would be a breakthrough moment in the campaign and a campaign he has done very well. one other quick thing, the resilience of mitt romney is starting the show through, because when he was way behind in florida he came band beat newt gingrich, and when he was behind he came back to beat rick santorum, and you have seen it in michigan and other places. so one other characteristic that you should talk about the resilience and the strength of rick santorum. >> well, he could be cast as the energizer bunny and nobody would deny that, but the problem is the ability to energize the voters. does that surprise you as someone who knows him well and co-chairing the campaign, and are you somewhat disappointed it has take thn long? >> well, a couple of things, it is competitive and nobody has to kor nate you for the nomination, and you have to earn it, and formidable competitors who are battling and not bowing out. but i want to push back on the premise, because you look at the turnout and modern historic high in michigan, and he did well in broad demographic groups in florida and nevada and bigger primaries and more diverse states, and he the only candidate tied or consistently beating barack obama in national polls so the idea that he is not doing well or connecting, i don't buy it. and lastly, somebody who is the more entertaining candidate is going top perh p perhaps be mor entertaining, but you need a commander in chief for the position of president of the united states, and not entertainer. >> and you know, i hear the point, but there is a more existential point coming your way, and the exit polls, 55% of the people in alabama, mitt romney is not conservative enough, and 42% of them in mississippi. so it seems that the numbers have shown it and we see it in every state that the truly conservative part of the base does not support mitt romney. >> well, i encourage you, erin, before you make a final judgment of that to look at the the results tonight, because if it turns out that mitt wins one or both of the states, your premise is undermined immediately. if mitt romney does well in the southern states tonight, the script is rewritten and that is a breakthrough moment and defies what the question suggested. >> all right. governor pawlenty, it is going to be a breakthrough moment when the polls close in 40 minutes, and it is going to be a very, very important night for the republicans running for the republican nomination. outfront, a stunning number, how much money the romney super pac has spent this year, and which party has a bigger problem with the women voters. 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