learn what exactly wanted to the pioneering female aviator a mellia earhart? i'm wolf blirts. i'm wolf blirts. you're in "the situation room." -- captions by vitac -- www.vitac.com >> this is cnn breaking news. lettay get right to breaking news from mexico. a powerful earthquake from acapulco to mexico city. let's go to our meteorologist chad myers. what are you seeing? what's going on? >> it has been reduced to a 7.4 earthquake, wolf, but that is still a very major shake. about 200 miles to mexico city, but there are cities or towns at least, much closer to the epicenter. let me take you to a few because there are 4,000 to up to 17,000 people in some of these cities and we know that they were right on top of the epicenter. there you see the towns with the roof, the tile roofs here. a beautiful part of mexico here. other towns not that far right over the other side of the hill. this is only about eight miles from the epicenter at a 7.4 shake and now about 12 miles deep. those towns were hit very hard, and a little bit farther up. there we come right here flying into this city. it has 17,000 to 19,000 residents. they felt the shaking very hard. there are 17 earthquakes this size every year, between 7.0 and 7.9. so they happen a lot, more than a month, but the story here is how many people lived in this area. this is from usgs. they tell us now that the fatalities may run from about 100 to 1,000 depending on how this shook and where the people were. a 42% chance that between 10 and 100 people have died in this fatality in this earthquake and a 32% chance that up to a thousand died in this. the other startling number is there is only a 2% chance that no one died. so this was a big shake, although it warrant in a town or under mexico. villagers did get injured and they're still trying to dig some people out. this is the latest video we have. this is actually part of a bridge that fell off the bridge as this person was driving under it. that's the guardrail that fell off the roadway above and crushed that car. we assume there are people in that car because otherwise they wouldn't be working to get that guardrail off, wolf. >> originally they said it was a 7.9 and now a 7.6 and now a 7.4. it doesn't sound to the lay person like that's a huge difference. every tenth of a point is a huge difference. >> it is. i just wanted to say how big a 7.4 really is. i know we kept saying it, and i kept tweeting it, reducing, reducing and that was great and that reduced the number of fatalities, but a 7.4 is a major quake for any country, and even though this was in a sparsely populated area, if this had been 300 miles deep, wolf, there would be an awful lot of padding between where the shaking occurred and where the people were living. so 300 miles of padding would make that epicenter 300 miles away. this was 12 miles deep so that epicenter only 12 miles away from on top where all of that shaking occurred were the towns on google earth. >> we'll stay in close touch with you. brian todd is also following the breaking news for us. what are you picking up? >> i spoke to officials at the u.s. geological survey. we have some of the pictures we can roll to show people some of the scenes in mexico city, acapulco and elsewhere, chad was referring to this that was cracked in half. not sure if that is a bridge that came down. there was one caption on a picture that came down that says it is a pedestrian walkway. we'll get more information on that and as you can see, was there a rescue effort going on or there was a short time ago. other video, just people evacuating and lots of pictures of people on the streets in mexico city and elsewhere. john bellini, a fizzisist, i spoke to him a while ago and about how they revised this down to 7.4 and there's potential for real damage near the epicenter and get red for a lot of aftershocks in the 5.0 range in the next couple of days. there you see a crack in the overpass that is under construction and not sure if that was facilitated, but there is cracking going on there and some plaster coming off of the side of that. john bellini says one thing to keep in mind here. mexico city is on an ancient lake bed. that amplifies the shaking in mexico city. it's like a big bowl of jello. whatever is felt in other places, it might have amplified mexico city because it sits on an ancient lake bed. so you will see aftershocks there and in other places in the 5.0 range for the next several days. i also spoke to an official at the mexican embassy here. he's been in close contact with colleagues and friends of his and family in mexico city. here, actually is some other good video that we picked up of an office shaking there. you can see this, it's fairly significant. no one is panicking there, but you can see the shaking going as the camera moves around. an official i talked to in the mexican embassy, important to note here, there is an early warning system in mexico city and in a lot of other major cities in mexico stretching down the pacific coast toward the guatemala border. there are sirens that go off. he tells me that at least in mexico city this was operational. the sirens did go off because he talked to his family members who said they heard the sirens going off just seconds before this happened. so there's an earthquake warning system. he says in mexico city and also in oaxaca state, chiapas, the states in the mexican border where they have a lot of seismic activity and there is an early warning system, and at least in mexico city, his family members told him they heard it. people got out in the streets and you can see people are disstraut and they're obviously shaken by what happened, but they did get out in the streets and stayed there and are heeding warnings. just some of the things that we're picking up from mexican officials and from officials at the u.s. geological survey along with the pictures that are starting to morph. >> we're getting new i-reports and more pictures. brian, i know you'll be monitoring that. cnn's juan carlos lopez of cnn espanol is monitoring mexican television for us right now. juan carlos, the president of mexico spoke out just a little while ago. first of all, what did he tell the people of mexico? >> he called this earthquake, wolf, a big scare. he says so far the government doesn't have any reports of deaths in mexico. he also said there were many scenes of panic throughout the affected states of guerrero, oaxaca and the mexican tal, but power lines and communications are functioning as usual. a big scare for mexicans, but they're well prepared for this type of event and so far according to the mexican president no fatalities. >> do they have breaking news, non-stop coverage on mexican television, juan carlos, right now? >> it's a big scare in mexico city. over 20 million people. they were very prepared because in 1985 they had a huge earthquake and over 10,000 people died and this is something they follow to the minute and very seriously and this is another event, after the first of the year and it's getting a lot of attention. >> we're getting reports that multiple houses collapsed near guerrero state, near the epicenter, right? >> that is 80 miles from acapulco, from the resort and obviously, these are the parts that will be most affected. the reports from acapulco and mexico city say it's a big scare, maybe cracks in buildings so far and no major events to report, but the reports are going come in from guerrero from these parts where people really felt this quake. >> we'll stay on top of it with you. we'll stay on top of what's going on and you'll monitor mexican television for us. chad, i want to bring you back into this conversation. what else are you picking up right now? >> i want to get to this earthquake warning system because i don't think people understand what it is. it's a fantastic system they have. they have sensors all over mexico and when one sensor senses shake at the speed of light because that's the speed that electricity goes through wires, warning siren are off just set off all over the place as you get around this earthquake because the speed of light is faster than the speed of shaking so it may only be a few six, but the few seconds that people had to get out of the way, into a doorwell or outside the building may have been enough to save lives for sure. just because the shake occurs, the sirens go off immediately, flying through wires and the shaking gets there a few seconds later, but sometimes that second is all you need. >> how deep underground was this earthquake, the epicenter, chad? >> it was 12 miles, wolf, and that means there's not a lot of padding between where the shake occurred where the fault ripped and where the shake occurred at the surface, the epicenter above the shake itself. that 12 miles is about what we had in haiti. we had a much bigger quake in haiti, but because of that lack of padding and because of that shallow quake that was only 12 miles, a lot of violent shaking occurred in the areas near the quake itself where only rumbling occurred at the 200 to 300 mile mark what you see here in mexico city. >> in haiti it was a 7.0 earthquake, right? >> i believe it was bigger than that, wolf. i can't remember, but i remember how short it was and how close it was to the surface and at some point seeing only six miles to the surface and a major metropolitan area that was never made to take that kind of shaking as building cracked and crumbled, but you could be at 7.0. you know, here's another deal. we have these conflicting numbers that came out all day long and mexico saying 6.6, and think about the speedometer in your car. the speedometer in your car saying it's 62 miles an hour and it's also saying it's going 100 kilometers an hour. it's just a different kale. because the scales are different in japan, mexico, the u.s. and europe, it's like miles to kilometers. you can't compare numbers to numbers across country lines. >> all right, chad. i know you're going to be working this story. all of us will be working this story and we'll stay on top of it and update our viewers as more information comes in, right now as of the latest information a 7.4 earthquake struck somewhere between acapulco and mexico city. we'll get you more information as it becomes available. we're also following other important news here in "the situation room," including election day in illinois. voters are casting their ballots and it's a critical contest for the main republican rivals, but rick santorum didn't help his cause with an election-eve gaffe being called his mitt romney moment. also, a republican budget in sharp contrast to president obama's. we're getting details of one medicare provision that has democrats pouncing. plus, a picture sparks a new effort to solve the 75-year-old mystery of amelia earhart, why hillary clinton, the secretary of state, is now getting behind an upcoming search in the south pacific. hey dad. see how the carrots i grow make that new stouffer's steam meal so tasty. actually, the milk from my farm makes it so creamy, right dad. ah, but my carrots have that crunch. it's my milk in the rich sauce coating the chicken and the pasta. boys! don't you think stouffer's steam perfect bag should get some credit? 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if your bank takes more money than a stranger, you need an ally. ally bank. no nonsense. just people sense. . >> a 7.4 earthquake hit mexico in between acapulco and mexico city. cnn producer nick parker is on the phone for us now. he was in mexico city, not that far from the epicenter, about how far, nick, are you from the epicenter in mexico city. >> it's around 200 kilometers approximately from the epicen r epicenter, about a four, four and a half-hour drive, and you know, it's something that was felt by most of the residents in mexico city from a relative distance from the epicenter of the quake. >> were you in a high-rise building? if so, how high were you? what did it feel like? and it was sort of on the hill. it was tense. the tremor itself lasted between, i'd say 10 or 15 seconds or so and it obviously shook, and another -- [ indiscernible ] >> and how are people reacting in mexico city based on your eyewitness account? >> i just came in now. it was right in the center of the city, and it doesn't seem to be, you know, as much panic here in mexico city. quite a few of the buildings are being evacuated, as well, and the people are lined up along the streets, but there is acceptance and familiarity with the situation. elsewhere in the country president felipe calderon has described seeing some panic in oaxaca and guerrero which was also affected in the epicenter, but here in mexico city there hasn't been much public distress. traffic is still relatively light and minor damage. there has been minor damage to buildings and a bridge collapse, but beyond that there is no talks of death at this stage in mexico city or injuries and at the epicenter itself, it was the nearest population center some 16 kilometers or so from the epicenter with the population of 55,000. at this stage we're going to travel down there. >> nick, we'll stay in close touch with you. nick parker is our cnn producer in mexico city and he'll be driving 250 miles to the epicenter and we'll stay in close touch with you and we'll stay on top of this story and i want to check in with jack cafferty. he's got the cafferty file. >> another tuesday and another republican presidential primary and if the candidates have their way there could be more of these to come before it's all over. some gop heavy weights don't see it that way. they're worried that this long, drawn-out blood canucksel bloodletting could be the real deal. karl rove, the architect of george w. bush's 2000 and 2004 run for the white house, the scales have moved from being a positive to being a negative. rove thinks one with of the worst moments of the republicans have occurred just in recent weeks. senator john mccain knows a thing about how ugly it can get on the campaign trail, calls this race the nastiest he has ever seen, unquote. he's supporting romney this time around, but that didn't stop him from telling nbc every day that goes by with these candidates attacking each other is, quote, a day that president obama wins, unquote. it doesn't matter, does it? at this point there's no end in sight. romney won big in puerto rico over the weekend and who could forget last week's embarrassing losses in mississippi and alabama. the pundits say illinois is a must-win state for him. they say that about all of them, don't they? they said the same thing about michigan and he won those two states, but just barely. santorum, meanwhile, is banking on another big surprise, and if the polls in illinois are right it may not happen this time. and then there are newt gingrich and ron paul. neither one apparently able to read the writing on the wall which gets bigger and bigger and then throw in the towel. it may be march, but to borrow a line from the song it seems like we've only just begun. here's the question, is a long gop primary good for the party? go to cnn.com/cafferty file, post a comment on my blog or go to the situation room's facebook page. >> good question, jack. thank you. >> and an off-the-cuff-remark, will it be political suicide for rick santorum? the controversy over this remark coming up in our strategy session. >> i don't care what the unemployment rate's going to be. it doesn't matter to me. 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[ man ] saw 'em in '83 in fresno. place was crawling with chicks. i got to go. ♪ any way you want it ♪ that's the way you need it ♪ any way you want it ♪ >> if rick santorum ever needed to hold the line it would be today in the critical illinois primary, but santorum may have handed mitt romneya i generous gift going into today's voting. let's go live to our national political correspondent jim acosta. he's on the scene for us. what happened? >> well, wolf, let me tell you first that rick santorum will be watching returns from illinois here in gettysburg, pennsylvania, the civil war battlefield is just down the road from where we're standing and he's doing it as a tribute in the founding fathers' home state of illinois, but it could be remembered as that crucial battleground that rick santorum gave away to mitt romney. >> thank you. thank you very much! thank you! >> reporter: it's never a good thing on primary day when a candidate is trying to cash up while cleaning up, but that's what rick santorum was doing on conservative talk radio. >> it's about what kuzes the unemployment rate to go up or down is what i'm focused on. the unemployment rate is a symptom. it's not the cause. >> reporter: what's been dubbed santorum's mitt romney moment started in molene, illinois. >> i don't care what the unemployment rate is going to be. it doesn't matter to me. a choice of words that wasn't playing well in peoria, illinois. >> occasionally you say some things that you wish you had a do over. >> before santorum had a chance to pull back, romney was on it. >> i do care. it does matter to me. >> it's something more foundational that's going here. >> that was good enough for the republican party's chairman, and he sided with santorum on cnn. >> i think that rick santorum's right. this election is about big things. >> reporter: but voters in illinois might feel differently. >> the next president of the united states governor mitt romney. >> reporter: romney knows all too well, how gas lives forever. >> i like to be able to fire people that provide services to me. ♪ ♪ >> can i have your attention please? ♪ ♪ >> can i have your attention please? >> the real mitt romney please stand up. >> consider this soon to be viral musical mashu